Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

[DeepBleu]

Projecting compensatory draft choices
March 13, 2009 2:04 PM

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

The mysterious AdamJT13 is back with his annual analysis on compensatory picks.

The NFL distributes these extra choices during its spring meetings (scheduled for March 22-25 this year). The leauge uses a complicated formula to award picks to teams as compensation for the free agents they lost in the previous year. Note: Teams cannot trade compensatory picks.

AdamJT13 has figured out the formula well enough to provide largely accurate projections. I have used his projections to show how many total picks each NFC West team might have in the 2009 draft.

The asterisks reflect totals affected by AdamJT13's projections. He expects the 49ers to gain one choice in each of the fifth and sixth rounds. He expects the Seahawks to gain four seventh-round choices. He expects the Cardinals to gain on seventh-round choice.

I know NFL executives who say they can accurately forecast the rounds for all compensatory picks. AdamJT13 comes closer than anyone I've seen outside an NFL organization -- assuming he does not work for an NFL team. His identity remains unknown to me and others. If you know him or if you are him, we'd love to learn more. His bloghttp://adamjt13.blogspot.com/ is here.

 

[Bigdog]

Projecting compensatory draft choices
March 13, 2009 2:04 PM

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

The mysterious AdamJT13 is back with his annual analysis on compensatory picks.

The NFL distributes these extra choices during its spring meetings (scheduled for March 22-25 this year). The leauge uses a complicated formula to award picks to teams as compensation for the free agents they lost in the previous year. Note: Teams cannot trade compensatory picks.

AdamJT13 has figured out the formula well enough to provide largely accurate projections. I have used his projections to show how many total picks each NFC West team might have in the 2009 draft.

The asterisks reflect totals affected by AdamJT13's projections. He expects the 49ers to gain one choice in each of the fifth and sixth rounds. He expects the Seahawks to gain four seventh-round choices. He expects the Cardinals to gain on seventh-round choice.

I know NFL executives who say they can accurately forecast the rounds for all compensatory picks. AdamJT13 comes closer than anyone I've seen outside an NFL organization -- assuming he does not work for an NFL team. His identity remains unknown to me and others. If you know him or if you are him, we'd love to learn more. His bloghttp://adamjt13.blogspot.com/ is here.

I just saw this in the Chicago Sun times that someone posted on over at kffl.com message boards. Now the national media is on to him. Nice job Adam as always and thank you for yur posting of these picks and salary cap information.

 

[MinnesotaCowboy]

I would like to say "a great read" but I am too damn old to comprehend what all it said! I still think Adam is Stephen Jones in disguise! This article was too well written to think otherwise............I can think of only one individual who could actually interpret all this info and give us some straight poop and that would be Hos if he wakes up in time

 

[Woods]

Projecting compensatory draft choices
March 13, 2009 2:04 PM

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

The mysterious AdamJT13 is back with his annual analysis on compensatory picks.

The NFL distributes these extra choices during its spring meetings (scheduled for March 22-25 this year). The leauge uses a complicated formula to award picks to teams as compensation for the free agents they lost in the previous year. Note: Teams cannot trade compensatory picks.

AdamJT13 has figured out the formula well enough to provide largely accurate projections. I have used his projections to show how many total picks each NFC West team might have in the 2009 draft.

The asterisks reflect totals affected by AdamJT13's projections. He expects the 49ers to gain one choice in each of the fifth and sixth rounds. He expects the Seahawks to gain four seventh-round choices. He expects the Cardinals to gain on seventh-round choice.

I know NFL executives who say they can accurately forecast the rounds for all compensatory picks. AdamJT13 comes closer than anyone I've seen outside an NFL organization -- assuming he does not work for an NFL team. His identity remains unknown to me and others. If you know him or if you are him, we'd love to learn more. His bloghttp://adamjt13.blogspot.com/ is here.

Doesn't M Sando know that Adam not only works for a NFL team, he actually owns it?

:laugh1:

Congrats, Stephen . . . . errrrr . . . . Adam! I glad you're getting known for your excellent efforts!

 

[tyke1doe]

Even ESPN bows to AdamJT13.

<Cue the Carly Simon "The Spy Who Loved Me" theme>

"Nobody does it better ..." :laugh1:

Great job, Adam.

 

[koolaid]

dude, you are amazing



if i was jerry jones, i would hire you

 

[Spectre]

I was going to write the exact same thing as AdamJT, but he did it first.

 

[AdamJT13]

In case anyone is interested, I updated my comp picks blog with a review of last year's projections --

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/


------------------------------------------------------------------------

A review of last year's projections

While I'm waiting for this year's compensatory picks to be announced (most likely next Monday), I thought I'd show how my projections last year compared to the actual comp picks that were awarded by the NFL.

To see my projections for LAST YEAR, you can click on one of these links or just Google "AdamJT13" and "2008 compensatory" --

http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=225687

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=208336


As I mentioned in this year's projections, I got 25 correct and was off by one round on four more.

The chart below shows how my projections compared to the actual comp picks. Those shaded green are the ones I had in the correct round. Those shaded yellow were the ones I missed by one round (three of which I had indicated were possible, as highlighted in green type). And the blue lines show where I had the order correct for the picks I had going in the correct round.

The three picks I missed were Atlanta's third-round pick, Miami's seventh-round pick and St. Louis' net-value pick at the end of the seventh round. Instead, I had projected a seventh for Indianapolis, a net-value pick for Atlanta and a non-compensatory pick for Miami. Even though I projected that Miami would get a seventh-rounder and Miami did get a seventh-rounder, I don't count that as a correct pick, because it was a different type of pick than I projected.

Although I missed Atlanta's third-round pick, I did say in my projections that it was possible. I had Marcus Wilkins listed as a bubble player, and I projected him to qualify for the comp picks equation, which gave them an equal number of qualifying players signed and lost, making them eligible for only a net-value comp pick at the end of the seventh round. However, I did say, "If Marcus Wilkins does not qualify, Atlanta would receive a third-round comp pick for Patrick Kerney instead of a net-value comp pick in the seventh round. The third-round comp pick for Kerney would be between Cincinnati’s pick for Steinbach and Baltimore’s pick for Thomas." Wilkins did not qualify, and Atlanta's pick did indeed fall between the third-round picks given to Cincinnati and Baltimore. So my only mistake was not hitting the correct cutoff point for the minimum value needed to qualify.

The same mistake is why I missed Miami's seventh-round pick, athough I again had said it was possible. This time, the bubble players involved were Chris Liewinski and Mike Doss. I had projected that both of them would qualify, and that Indianapolis would receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss. But neither of them qualified. In my projections, I said, "If neither Chris Liewinski nor Mike Doss qualify and Vinny Ciurciu does qualify, Miami would get a seventh-round comp pick for Jeff Zgonina between Chicago’s pick for Justin Gage and Cincinnati’s pick for Anthony Wright, Indianapolis would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss, and Miami would keep its non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round." Ciurciu did qualify, and Miami's seventh-round comp pick for Zgonina fell right where I projected it. Miami did not get a non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round because 32 picks were awarded, and I mentioned in my projections that if the NFL awarded more comp picks than I had projected, the lowest picks in my projection would not be awarded.

The final pick I missed was the net-value pick for St. Louis. I didn't list St. Louis' players signed and lost in my projections because I didn't project a pick for the Rams. I had the Rams signing three qualifying players (Drew Bennett, Chris Draft and Todd Johnson) and losing three qualifying players (Kevin Curtis, Travis Fisher and Shaun McDonald), but I didn't have the difference in their combined values being enough to warrant a net-value comp pick. The NFL said the difference was enough. In this year's projections, I said the difference in net values for the net-value picks I projected for Detroit and Arizona would be the smallest of any net-value comp pick in the past six years. But after re-examining St. Louis' net-value pick that I missed last year, the difference for the Rams' players signed and lost appears to have been even smaller. That makes me feel more confident about my projections for Detroit and Arizona this year, but if neither of them qualify for a comp pick this year, it means I'll have to do a little more digging to figure out why.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I need a aspirin.

 

[AdamJT13]

Someone on my comp picks blog asked about Brian Kelly possibly not being included in the equation. I did a little research and decided that there is a chance that he won't count against the Lions, although I still am projecting that he will. Here's an explanation --


Kelly's contract with Tampa Bay had 2008 listed as a voidable season, and he voided it and became a true UFA (not an "other free agent" or "street free agent," like players who get released). Players who became true UFAs because of voidable seasons normally are included in the equation like any other true UFA.

The one thing that might disqualify Kelly from the equation, though, is that his 2008 season originally wasn't a voidable season. His contract was renegotiated in July 2007 to make 2008 voidable if he achieved certain incentives, which he did.

I know that players who become UFAs by renegotiating to eliminate contract years are not included in the equation, but I don't recall any cases of players who renegotiated to convert seasons to voidable years, so I don't know how the NFL handles that. I guess if Kelly doesn't qualify, we'll know why.

If Kelly is not included in the equation, instead of getting a net-value comp pick, Detroit would get a comp pick for Damien Woody right after Indianapolis' comp pick for Jake Scott, in either the fourth or fifth round.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

I wonder how much that salary of Jacques Reeves will be weighed against the fact he was a Day 1 starter IIRC. The salary might not be as important as the role he played for Houston. However, your numbers, reasoning, and previous success are almost impossible to argue with.

 

[AdamJT13]

Someone on my comp picks blog asked about Brian Kelly possibly not being included in the equation. I did a little research and decided that there is a chance that he won't count against the Lions, although I still am projecting that he will. Here's an explanation --


Kelly's contract with Tampa Bay had 2008 listed as a voidable season, and he voided it and became a true UFA (not an "other free agent" or "street free agent," like players who get released). Players who became true UFAs because of voidable seasons normally are included in the equation like any other true UFA.

The one thing that might disqualify Kelly from the equation, though, is that his 2008 season originally wasn't a voidable season. His contract was renegotiated in July 2007 to make 2008 voidable if he achieved certain incentives, which he did.

I know that players who become UFAs by renegotiating to eliminate contract years are not included in the equation, but I don't recall any cases of players who renegotiated to convert seasons to voidable years, so I don't know how the NFL handles that. I guess if Kelly doesn't qualify, we'll know why.

If Kelly is not included in the equation, instead of getting a net-value comp pick, Detroit would get a comp pick for Damien Woody right after Indianapolis' comp pick for Jake Scott, in either the fourth or fifth round.

OK, I did some double-checking on players who converted contract years into voidable years by renegotiating. There have, in fact, been players who have done this and still qualified for the equation, so I'm pretty certain that Brian Kelly (as well as Damien Woody and Mark Brunell, each of whom also did it) will qualify this year.

In March 2002, safety Shaun Williams signed a contract with the Giants through 2007, with an option for 2008. The 2006 and 2007 seasons were not voidable years. In March 2005, Williams renegotiated his contract. The 2007 and 2008 seasons were deleted, and the 2006 season was converted into a voidable year. When the 2006 season was voided, he became a true UFA at the start of the 2006 free agency period. He signed a one-year contract with Carolina in March 2006 and was included by the NFL in the compensatory picks equation in 2007.

That same year, Andre Carter also was included, even though his 2006 season was converted to a voidable year during a renegotiation.

 

[unionjack8]

Adam, your work here has just proven to be outstanding once again.

Many many thanks. You really should give JJ a call and get a job.

One Question though.
Why do you think Faneca only got 5th round comp, not 3rd as you thought. It comfuses me. He was a pro bowl player, huge contract. ???

 

[AdamJT13]

Why do you think Faneca only got 5th round comp, not 3rd as you thought. It comfuses me. He was a pro bowl player, huge contract. ???

I can't explain it, but hopefully the Pittsburgh media gets an answer to that question. Faneca played 99 percent of the snaps, made the Pro Bowl and got a huge contract ($7.8 million per season, plus a little more that doesn't count in the equation). I even went back and looked for funny money in his contract and couldn't find any.

By the way, I had 26 exactly correct, plus three more off by one round (all of which I said were possible). Two of the ones I missed, I had listed as possibilities if certain players qualified (they did). The Steelers' pick is the only one I really didn't anticipate at all.

 

[speedkilz88]

Is there a list of all the teams comp picks?

 

[AdamJT13]

Is there a list of all the teams comp picks?

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com

 

[wick]

You are amazing at this, but I've spent 10 years wondering why you care so much about compensatory picks to go to the effort.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com

I never cease to be amazed by your knowledge of this stuff. Kudos to you.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Dam, you nailed 26/32 correct, you really need to get a job with the Cowboys...........seriously.

 

[SkinsFan28]

As a fan of the game, I gotta say Great Job!!!