Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks

Hostile

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wick;2700435 said:
You are amazing at this, but I've spent 10 years wondering why you care so much about compensatory picks to go to the effort.
Hell, I'd do it if he wasn't so good at it. Knowing the nuances of the game and how things are done are part of the enjoyment of the game. I'm often amazed at people who don't know the answers to very simply NFL questions. Here's a guy who knows some complicated stuff. It's fascinating.
 

AdamJT13

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wick;2700435 said:
You are amazing at this, but I've spent 10 years wondering why you care so much about compensatory picks to go to the effort.

I originally did it (in 1998) because the Cowboys were due three comp picks for losing Darrin Smith, George Teague and John Jett, and I wanted to try to figure out which picks they'd get. Now I have much more accurate information, it takes much less time, and I've come pretty close to simulating the formula, so I keep trying and seeing if I can ever go 32-for-32. I certainly never thought it would get the national media attention it did this year, that's for sure.
 

tyke1doe

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I guess it can't be said often enough.

Adam ... You ... are ... da ... man! :D
 

AdamJT13

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AdamJT13;2700342 said:
I can't explain it, but hopefully the Pittsburgh media gets an answer to that question. Faneca played 99 percent of the snaps, made the Pro Bowl and got a huge contract ($7.8 million per season, plus a little more that doesn't count in the equation). I even went back and looked for funny money in his contract and couldn't find any.

Just to follow up on this, one of the Pittsburgh newspapers is reporting that there is a rule that says a team can't get higher than a fifth-round pick for any player with 10 or more seasons of NFL experience. Faneca played 10 seasons with the Steelers before he signed with the Jets. If that's the rule, this might be the first time it has ever had to be invoked.
 

AdamJT13

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Both newspapers in Pittsburgh reported the existence of the rule regarding compensatory picks for players with 10 or more seasons of NFL experience. After some research, I wrote this --

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/ten-year-rule-has-been-used-before.html

Ten-year rule has been used before

The newly revealed rule that prevented the Steelers from getting a compensatory pick higher than a fifth-rounder for Alan Faneca has been used at least twice before this year, including at least once with the Steelers.

The rule, according to two media reports out of Pittsburgh, says that a team can't receive anything higher than a fifth-round compensatory pick for a player with 10 or more seasons of NFL experience. So, for example, even though Faneca's value in the compensatory formula was the second-highest among all qualifying players, the Steelers got only a fifth-round comp pick for him because he had played 10 seasons before signing with the New York Jets.

In 1999, the same rule prevented the Steelers from getting a third-round pick for losing John Jackson, who had played 10 seasons for Pittsburgh before signing with San Diego in 1998. The Steelers did get a third-round comp pick in 1999, as well as a fifth-rounder, but it's now apparent that the third-round pick was for Yancey Thigpen, not Jackson, as I had thought at the time. Jackson and Thigpen each had a third-round value, with Jackson's value being slightly higher than Thigpen's. The Steelers also lost two lower-valued players, but those losses were negated by the signings of two lower-valued players. At the time, I questioned whether the Steelers' fifth-round comp pick was some type of "compromise" between the value of Thigpen and one of the lower-valued players lost, since not of them had a fifth-round value. But now we know that the third-round comp pick was for Thigpen, and the fifth-rounder was the highest the pick for Jackson could be, because of the 10-year rule.

One year later, in 2000, as many as four teams could have been affected by the 10-year-rule. One is definite -- the Arizona Cardinals got a fifth-round pick for losing Lomas Brown, who had a fourth-round value. The other three teams who might have gotten higher comp picks if not for the 10-year-rule were Kansas City (Rich Gannon), Pittsburgh again (Carnell Lake) and Minnesota (Jerry Ball). The Chiefs, Steelers and Vikings each had other players whose value might have been the reason they received fifth-round comp picks, but Wednesday's revelation of the 10-year-rule raises the possibility that those veteran players were the reason.

Although the Faneca fifth-rounder raised questions when first announced, it ultimately has resulted in far more answers about the process of awarding compensatory picks.
 

silverbear

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AdamJT13;2701021 said:
I originally did it (in 1998) because the Cowboys were due three comp picks for losing Darrin Smith, George Teague and John Jett, and I wanted to try to figure out which picks they'd get. Now I have much more accurate information, it takes much less time, and I've come pretty close to simulating the formula, so I keep trying and seeing if I can ever go 32-for-32. I certainly never thought it would get the national media attention it did this year, that's for sure.

This just proves that if you're good at what you do, people will notice...

You should be very proud, Adam... you should also know that I posted your compensatory projections on the Ranch (with full attribution, of course) and one of the jerks in there started raggin' on you and your work... well, me and more than a few others took great pleasure in rippin' that guy a new anal orifice; they let us get a bit more "playful" over there...

IOW, you have many fans over there, though most of them understand why you choose not to post over there any more...
 
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