Putting Dak's Numbers in Perspective

[percyhoward]

Just curious Percy since you are obviously very knowledgeable, but what is hyperbole about it?

We have a complete offense now, which forces defenses to respect the run. In 2007, defenses didn't take our running game seriously.

Games 7-13 of 2007:
total yardage distribution
pass 1867 (71.5%)
run 756 (28.5%)
Romo 168 of 226 (74.3%) 1,947 yd 20 td 5 int 8.6 ypa 120.2
avg 1st down run: 4.4 yd

Games 3-9 of this year:
total yardage distribution
pass 1757 (58.7%)
run 1237 (41.3%)
Prescott 140 of 205 (68.3%) 1,820 14 td 2 int 8.9 ypa 114.7
avg 1st down run: 6.2 yd

The reason you can't compare the two offenses equally is the same reason Prescott's critics try to diminish his accomplishments and call him a "game manager." But that goes too far the other way, because it incorrectly assumes that teams that run well or have great defenses always pass just as well. They usually don't.

Avg NFL rank, passer rating
of top 5 teams, yards per rush
2016 6th
2015 19th
2014 10th
2013 15th
2012 4th

Avg NFL rank, passer rating
of top 5 teams, points allowed per drive
2016 22nd
2015 12th
2014 18th
2013 5th
2012 12th

 

[tyke1doe]

He has?

I had no idea that Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, DeMarco Murray, Marion Barber, and good to great OLs were considered "poor personnel".

My guess is at least half the league would kill to have the offensive support Romo's had at his disposal throughout his career.

It's such a tired narrative. They make it seem as if Romo was playing on 1-15 teams his entire career.

 

[tyke1doe]

Let the record reflect it's still a fact that;

1. Romo is better at throwing the football with more consistency than Dak
2. Romo is better at reading NFL defenses right now than Dak
3. Romo is better adjusting this offense presnap than Dak
4. With 10+ years experience running a pro style NFL offense, Romo is STILL better than Dak at that, who is in his 1st year in the system and is still learning it in his very first season.
5. Romo turns the ball over more often than Dak.

Let's not leave that out. You can do all the things you've said, but if you turn the ball over, there's a greater likelihood that you'll lose the game.

 

[JJHLH1]

We have a complete offense now, which forces defenses to respect the run. In 2007, defenses didn't take our running game seriously.

Games 7-13 of 2007:
total yardage distribution
pass 1867 (71.5%)
run 756 (28.5%)
Romo 168 of 226 (74.3%) 1,947 yd 20 td 5 int 8.6 ypa 120.2
avg 1st down run: 4.4 yd

Games 3-9 of this year:
total yardage distribution
pass 1757 (58.7%)
run 1237 (41.3%)
Prescott 140 of 205 (68.3%) 1,820 14 td 2 int 8.9 ypa 114.7
avg 1st down run: 6.2 yd

But to be fair Percy shouldn't we compare the first 9 games of 2007 vs. the first 9 games of 2016?

But even so I still don't see the hyperbole. Even by your own stats during Romo's best stretch of games he had a 120.2 rating vs. Dak's 114.7. Very comparable, certainly not an exaggerated difference which is what hyperbole implies. Dak has a better rushing attack to help him now, but Romo had a better defense to help him in 2007.

I cringe when I think of 2007. Home field advantage and no playoff win. That still stings.

 

[SportsGuru80]

How good does it feel to have your present and future QB balling along with your young RB????

 

[Q_the_man]

Romo has a history of multiple years of excellence.

Dak has played 9 games period. It's been a great 9 games for the team but not universally great for Dak.

I'd be hesitant to use a small sample size and compare it to the body of work of Romo. Especially when Romo for most of his career was saddled with poor personnel around him.

Even looking at that 2014 team and the offense was not as talented. Remember how there was all the talk about how great the line was but when you broke it down it was great at run blocking but average at pass blocking? That's no longer the case.

Apples and oranges.

When I look at Dak he is missing on Plays... Easy plays that Romo has made... For years.

2014 Offense not as talented? We had the same exact line minus Collins, we had a healthy Dez and Romo with a younger Witten. We had Murray (1800 yards) and pretty much the same DB's except for Jones.

 

[stilltheguru88]

But to be fair Percy shouldn't we compare the first 9 games of 2007 vs. the first 9 games of 2016?

But even so I still don't see the hyperbole. Even by your own stats during Romo's best stretch of games he had a 120.2 rating vs. Dak's 114.7. Very comparable, certainly not an exaggerated difference which is what hyperbole implies. Dak has a better rushing attack to help him now, but Romo had a better defense to help him in 2007.

I cringe when I think of 2007. Home field advantage and no playoff win. That still stings.

Romo had his chance to win us a playoff game with a magical season in 2007 and he failed. It's Daks turn now.

 

[mattjames2010]

Romo had his chance to win us a playoff game with a magical season in 2007 and he failed. It's Daks turn now.

There was nothing "magical" about the 2007 season, players got injured late in 2007, Romo got banged up as well, and our offense slowed down. 2009 was a far better season for us late in the season when we got hot and beat the Eagles back to back just for our defense and O-line to crap the bed. Romo then won us a game in a TRUE magical season in 2014 and a controversial call and a key turnover kept us from advancing to the championship round.

Dak has been shaky far too often these past few weeks with inconsistent zip on his passes, not sensing the field, missing reads. The leash should be short, a couple of bad performances and some losses and he'll be where Romo is right now.

That's just how it goes. Games are going to get tougher from here.

 

[Dale]

There was nothing "magical" about the 2007 season, players got injured late in 2007, Romo got banged up as well, and our offense slowed down. 2009 was a far better season for us late in the season when we got hot and beat the Eagles back to back just for our defense and O-line to crap the bed. Romo then won us a game in a TRUE magical season in 2014 and a controversial call and a key turnover kept us from advancing to the championship round.

Dak has been shaky far too often these past few weeks with inconsistent zip on his passes, not sensing the field, missing reads. The leash should be short, a couple of bad performances and some losses and he'll be where Romo is right now.

That's just how it goes. Games are going to get tougher from here.

The only thing I don't understand about the micro-analysis of every "inconsistent" and "zip" lacking Dak pass is that it almost insinuates Romo makes no such miscues. Romo is a fantastic quarterback, but can fall prone to the same issues that Prescott or any quarterback falls victim to with the occasional misread, overthrow or poor decision.

For instance, as recently as 2013, Romo completed 41.7 percent of his passes in a loss to New Orleans; 46.7 percent of his passes in a loss against Detroit; 55 percent of his passes in a loss at Chicago; etc. He completed 52 percent of his passes in last year's loss to Carolina.

And in 2014, Romo turned the ball over in 9 of the 15 games he played.

Again, I love Romo (see my avatar -- which dates back to Romo's first year as the starter when his "moxie" took us by storm), but I fail to see how Dak's inconsistencies or warts are ultimately any more plentiful than Romo's at this point.

 

[mattjames2010]

The only thing I don't understand about the micro-analysis of every "inconsistent" and "zip" lacking Dak pass is that it almost insinuates Romo makes no such miscues. Romo is a fantastic quarterback, but can fall prone to the same issues that Prescott or any quarterback falls victim to with the occasional misread, overthrow or poor decision.

For instance, as recently as 2013, Romo completed 41.7 percent of his passes in a loss to New Orleans; 46.7 percent of his passes in a loss against Detroit; 55 percent of his passes in a loss at Chicago; etc. He completed 52 percent of his passes in last year's loss to Carolina.

And in 2014, Romo turned the ball over in 9 of the 15 games he played.

Again, I love Romo (see my avatar -- which dates back to Romo's first year as the starter when his "moxie" took us by storm), but I fail to see how Dak's inconsistencies or warts are ultimately any more plentiful than Romo's at this point.

Misreads happen, it happens to every QB. Romo never had trouble consistently putting the ball in tight spaces. Romo was deemed a "gunslinger" early on in his career having a weak arm. He always had great release and really good arm strength.

If the only issue Dak had was reading the field, I'd get it. But not reading the field well and missing wide open players at times, not sensing the pressure and having what now 3-4 fumbles from the right side, and his arm going noodle smells of disaster come playoff time when we play a team like Seattle. Reading defenses, footwork and some mechanics can be worked on, arm strength cannot.

And I don't care if you "love Romo" - Not sure why people feel the need to point this out. I don't care. Just stick with an argument. I'm not going to continue to post I'm actually hoping Dak does prove me wrong. He's a Cowboy, of course I'm going to hope this.

 

[Dale]

I see so much about Dak being a game manager, or far more inconsistent than Romo, etc., that I think some fail to see the sort of season he is actually putting together.

Remember, Dak is currently the most ill-prepared he should theoretically ever be to be a starting QB in this league. And for the commentary on what Romo has played without during his career, it's fair to note that Dak spent nearly half this season with a missing Dez (3 games) or a hobbled Dez (1 to 2 more games) and that Zeke wasn't "Zeke" until Week 3.

So with that said, here's what Dak is on pace for if you extrapolate his stats out to a 16-game season:

4,158 passing yards, 66.8 completion %, 32 total TDs, 4 INTs, 8.4 YPA, 222 rushing yards and 9 total turnovers.

For comparison's sake, Romo has topped 4,158 yards 4 times. He has bettered 66.8% completion 3 times. Romo has twice exceeded 32 total TDs. He has never thrown as few as 4 INTs (7 is his career low, in seasons in which he played 4 and 7 games). Romo has topped 8.4 YPA twice. And Romo has never run for 200 yards, and has only once had fewer than 9 total turnovers (8 -- in a 4-game season last year).

I throw those stats out there not as a true comparison, because there are so many variables to take into consideration. Romo's injury history has significantly limited his ability to accumulate numbers in 2 to 3 seasons; Romo is a gunslinger, who by nature is going to commit more turnovers; and the level of surrounding talent differs each and every year.

But I've long been of the mindset that Romo is a borderline regular-season Hall of Famer, a quarterback whose only missing piece to his legacy was sustained playoff success. So as such, I'm highly impressed that our rookie passer is putting together the kind of season that can described as anything but inferior to some of Romo's best work.

 

[ConstantReboot]

Absolutely nothing in the Pittsburgh game that Romo can't do.

A simple screen...really?

The Dak hyperbole is embarrassing.

If that was Romo it would have been an 8 yard pass to Witten. Then try to make up the rest on 3rd down.

Please give us and example of Romo doing a play action, fake the sweep and then hit a runningback for a screen?

 

[windjc]

I see so much about Dak being a game manager, or far more inconsistent than Romo, etc., that I think some fail to see the sort of season he is actually putting together.

Remember, Dak is currently the most ill-prepared he should theoretically ever be to be a starting QB in this league. And for the commentary on what Romo has played without during his career, it's fair to note that Dak spent nearly half this season with a missing Dez (3 games) or a hobbled Dez (1 to 2 more games) and that Zeke wasn't "Zeke" until Week 3.

So with that said, here's what Dak is on pace for if you extrapolate his stats out to a 16-game season:

4,158 passing yards, 66.8 completion %, 32 total TDs, 4 INTs, 8.4 YPA, 222 rushing yards and 9 total turnovers.

For comparison's sake, Romo has topped 4,158 yards 4 times. He has bettered 66.8% completion 3 times. Romo has twice exceeded 32 total TDs. He has never thrown as few as 4 INTs (7 is his career low, in seasons in which he played 4 and 7 games). Romo has topped 8.4 YPA twice. And Romo has never run for 200 yards, and has only once had fewer than 9 total turnovers (8 -- in a 4-game season last year).

I throw those stats out there not as a true comparison, because there are so many variables to take into consideration. Romo's injury history has significantly limited his ability to accumulate numbers in 2 to 3 seasons; Romo is a gunslinger, who by nature is going to commit more turnovers; and the level of surrounding talent differs each and every year.

But I've long been of the mindset that Romo is a borderline regular-season Hall of Famer, a quarterback whose only missing piece to his legacy was sustained playoff success. So as such, I'm highly impressed that our rookie passer is putting together the kind of season that can described as anything but inferior to some of Romo's best work.

^^^ This is a ***m good post. Dak earned the starting role no dought.

 

[WillieBeamen]

He has?

I had no idea that Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, DeMarco Murray, Marion Barber, and good to great OLs were considered "poor personnel".

My guess is at least half the league would kill to have the offensive support Romo's had at his disposal throughout his career.

I like how you left out the time when he played behind an OL that consisted of:

Phil Costa
Nate Livings
Mackenzie Bernardeau
Doug Free (at LT)
Tyron Smith (at RT)

That G/C/G combination was by far the worst in the league

 

[ConstantReboot]

& was his 2nd game back from injury against a team that ended up with a 15-1 record & in the Super Bowl. It's not like he was terrible against the Browns or something.

Thats true too. But as you can see Romo's mobility is his weakness. You can rattle him just as easy with a good passrush. Its hard to do that with Dak because of his ability to run with it.

 

[Dale]

If that was Romo it would have been an 8 yard pass to Witten. Then try to make up the rest on 3rd down.

Please give us and example of Romo doing a play action, fake the sweep and then hit a runningback for a screen?

This is what annoys me most in these threads that insinuate everything about Romo is better. I see so many willing to essentially hand every successful Dak play to Romo, assuming Romo would have made the same play. Meanwhile, they insist Romo would have none of the incompletions. Sorry, but no one is going out there and completing 92 percent of their passes for us.

The incompletions are going to come from somewhere, and one of those plays very well could have been that screen pass to Zeke. When was the last time we successfully ran screen passes? Pre-Aikman?

 

[ConstantReboot]

This is what annoys me most in these threads that insinuate everything about Romo is better. I see so many willing to essentially hand every successful Dak play to Romo, assuming Romo would have made the same play. Meanwhile, they insist Romo would have none of the incompletions. Sorry, but no one is going out there and completing 92 percent of their passes for us.

The incompletions are going to come from somewhere, and one of those plays very well could have been that screen pass to Zeke. When was the last time we successfully ran screen passes? Pre-Aikman?

I heard Dak being called names such as noodle arm and has bad arm strength to fit it into tight spots. They don't think he's elite enough and that Romo is.

However, that screen to Zeke and the deep ball to Bryant I think is pretty elite or even close to it. I think that Daks detractors all forget that his a rookie.

 

[windjc]

I heard Dak being called names such as noodle arm and has bad arm strength to fit it into tight spots. They don't think he's elite enough and that Romo is.

However, that screen to Zeke and the deep ball to Bryant I think is pretty elite or even close to it. I think that Daks detractors all forget that his a rookie.

I agree. Again, I will say that the Pittsburgh game is the first time I saw plays I'm not sure Romo would or could make right now.

Last week, I said that Tony would most likely play again because Dak would most likely have a couple of more games like against Philly and he would pay the price this time. And while this could happen, I am a little less certain that it will or would, and for the first time I'm seeing Dak show flashes of elite individual plays, not just elite QBR.

 

[zeroburrito]

not sure about that. let's see if he can toss over 30 touchdowns and 4000+ yards.

i still say his 2007 season was the best he ever had. watching the games was incredible. he had to do everything.

 

[Boom]

Let's not leave that out. You can do all the things you've said, but if you turn the ball over, there's a greater likelihood that you'll lose the game.

Like when Romo threw 3 ints in game 1 of 2014? I have no doubt that Dak could pull a Romo and cause himself to be replaced by Romo.