Putting Dak's Numbers in Perspective

[stilltheguru88]

There was nothing "magical" about the 2007 season, players got injured late in 2007, Romo got banged up as well, and our offense slowed down. 2009 was a far better season for us late in the season when we got hot and beat the Eagles back to back just for our defense and O-line to crap the bed. Romo then won us a game in a TRUE magical season in 2014 and a controversial call and a key turnover kept us from advancing to the championship round.

Dak has been shaky far too often these past few weeks with inconsistent zip on his passes, not sensing the field, missing reads. The leash should be short, a couple of bad performances and some losses and he'll be where Romo is right now.

That's just how it goes. Games are going to get tougher from here.

And I'm fine with games getting tougher. I believe in Dak the same way I did Romo when he started until he gave me a reason to not trust him. Dak hasn't given me a reason so I'm good.

 

[drawandstrike]

I like how you left out the time when he played behind an OL that consisted of:

Phil Costa
Nate Livings
Mackenzie Bernardeau
Doug Free (at LT)
Tyron Smith (at RT)

That G/C/G combination was by far the worst in the league

Am I the only one that remembers how our RB's getting tackled BEHIND the LOS was a regular feature of our ground attack from 2008-2012ish?

I swear to God, about 5-6 times a game we got used to seeing Barber or Julius or Felix Jones or Tashard Choice take the handoff and immediately get contacted in the backfield for a loss.

Murray was actually talented enough when we got him that he showed flashes of being able to avoid the contact and turn something into nothing even when the play broke down from the snap due to defensive penetration of the backfield.

When we finally had the pieces in place on the OLine in 2014 and a fully healthy season from Murray, we saw the results. 12-4 and a playoff run.

 

[Undisputed]

This is what annoys me most in these threads that insinuate everything about Romo is better. I see so many willing to essentially hand every successful Dak play to Romo, assuming Romo would have made the same play. Meanwhile, they insist Romo would have none of the incompletions. Sorry, but no one is going out there and completing 92 percent of their passes for us.

The incompletions are going to come from somewhere, and one of those plays very well could have been that screen pass to Zeke. When was the last time we successfully ran screen passes? Pre-Aikman?

According to some of these folks, since Dak is winning all of these games it means they all would have been blowouts with Romo. Yep, we would be 9-0 with 9 blowouts folks. Because that's how the NFL works...

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

According to some of these folks, since Dak is winning all of these games it means they all would have been blowouts with Romo. Yep, we would be 9-0 with 9 blowouts folks. Because that's how the NFL works...

Tony used to make me nuts sometimes. I must have been imagining it all.

 

[JJHLH1]

Remember, Dak is currently the most ill-prepared he should theoretically ever be to be a starting QB in this league.

Exactly. To put it in context:

Dak Prescott was the 135th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Teams don’t use low selections on quarterbacks and expect an immediate contribution.

It’s not easy for rookie quarterbacks to start in the NFL, and it’s pretty rare for them to start in Week 1 of the NFL season. For the most part, that honor belongs to those highly drafted players taken by a team that intends to build around a rookie signal caller.

This is rarely charted territory in modern history: You have to go all the way back to 1977 to find a quarterback not selected in the first 130 picks of the NFL draft who then went on start his team’s season opener as a rookie. That player was Randy Hedberg who started for the terrible Buccaneers franchise in 1977. Hedberg is one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. He finished his career with a 0.0 passer rating.

In addition, no undrafted quarterbacks since the NFL merger have started as rookies.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dak-prescott-is-not-your-average-week-1-starting-quarterback/

 

[Undisputed]

Tony used to make me nuts sometimes. I must have been imagining it all.

One day Dak will learn how to "punt" as well as Romo, but he isn't there yet.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

One day Dak will learn how to "punt" as well as Romo, but he isn't there yet.

That's what I used to say. Oh great another punt. lol

 

[Proximo]

So, we're going to magnify all of Dak's imperfections and focus on those, and simultaneously imagine that if Romo were to step on the field today, it would be the best version of Romo we've seen.

Makes sense.

 

[DallasDomination]

Show me a highlight - just one - of Romo setting up a screen like that. I'll wait right here.

Marion barber screen to the house against the cardinals? Don't remember if it was a screen or not.

 

[Kevinicus]

If that was Romo it would have been an 8 yard pass to Witten. Then try to make up the rest on 3rd down.

Please give us and example of Romo doing a play action, fake the sweep and then hit a runningback for a screen?

Fake the sweep? What? Why do you guys make things up. It was a simple screen that the OL did a great job on, and Zeke finished. It's not in any way shape or form an example of excellent QB play. Just stop this nonsense, please. It's like the football IQ of half the members of this boards has dropped 100 points lately.

 

[tyke1doe]

Like when Romo threw 3 ints in game 1 of 2014? I have no doubt that Dak could pull a Romo and cause himself to be replaced by Romo.

When you turn the ball over, there's a greater LIKELIHOOD that you lose. I didn't say when you turn the ball over you ABSOLUTELY would lose.

Second, if not for Eli Manning's blunder at the end of the game, the Cowboys would have loss. Surely, you're not using that game to highlight how Romo performed marvelously? The same arguments being made against Dak (he played crappy early in the game but came on strong at the end) could be said against Romo.

Look, I believe Romo is a more experienced quarterback than Dak and on experience alone is better than he is at this point in both of their careers. I, however, don't feel the need to excuse Romo or make it seem like everyone else is at faul BUT him. That's what "irks" (not really but I'm lacking a better word) about staunch Romo supporters. It's always someone else's fault, never his. It's a team game when he leads us to victory but we're not a complete team when he loses. We cite his 300 yard games when he wins but don't cite his multiple miscues via interceptions and fumbles when we lose.
Plus, I don't know if he's the same quarterback two years removed from 2014 and two years older coming off a back injury.

I wish there was some way Romo could thrive and Dak could thrive too. But that doesn't seem to be the case. So I'm firmly behind Dak based on the start he has had and how he has gelled with this team.

 

[dfense]

Wasn't that his second game-winning drive and third 4th quarter/OT comeback of the year?

Like I said, first 2:00 game winning drive.

 

[tyke1doe]

This is rarely charted territory in modern history: You have to go all the way back to 1977 to find a quarterback not selected in the first 130 picks of the NFL draft who then went on start his team’s season opener as a rookie. That player was Randy Hedberg who started for the terrible Buccaneers franchise in 1977. Hedberg is one of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. He finished his career with a 0.0 passer rating.

Daaaannnnggg!

 

[percyhoward]

But to be fair Percy shouldn't we compare the first 9 games of 2007 vs. the first 9 games of 2016?

But even so I still don't see the hyperbole. Even by your own stats during Romo's best stretch of games he had a 120.2 rating vs. Dak's 114.7. Very comparable, certainly not an exaggerated difference which is what hyperbole implies. Dak has a better rushing attack to help him now, but Romo had a better defense to help him in 2007.

I realize you missed the hyperbole, so I'll try to do a better job of helping you see it this time.

The author of the article from the OP wrote that Prescott's best stretch of games equaled Romo's best over his career. The best stretch of Romo's career was games 7-13 of 2007, so an equal number of games that amounts to Prescott's best stretch would be games 3-9 of this season.

Romo's 120.2 rating was 33% higher than the league average of 2007. Prescott's 114.7 rating is 22% higher than this season's average. Here's how those two ratings compare, adjusting for era.

2007 Romo 131.3
2016 Prescott 114.7

Prescott's rating is outstanding, but it's still 16.6 points lower than Romo's. For Prescott to make up for this difference, there would have to be extenuating circumstances that skew the ratings in Romo's favor. What you find is the opposite.

play selection on 1st & 10
(excludes plays when leading by more than two scores in 4th qtr)
2007 84 passes, 81 runs (51% pass)
2016 65 passes, 110 runs (37% pass)

Runs on 1st & 10
average gain, adjusted for era
2007 4.9 ypr
2016 6.2 ypr

Defenses
points allowed per drive, adjusted for era
2007 1.78
2016 1.92

In these two sets of games, Prescott's defense was slightly worse, his running game was much better, and his team ran a lot more than Romo's team. Prescott, the QB with the built-in advantage, had the lower rating. And that's an explanation of my "hyperbole" comment for you -- not a criticism of Prescott. We may disagree that Dak is as good as Romo ever was, but I think we can both appreciate how amazing it is that we're even talking about it.

I posted the following in another thread...

Prescott is on a pace for 4,158 yards and a 106.2 passer rating. Here is the entire list of passers who had least 4,000 yards and a 100 rating in any of their first 3 seasons.

1984 Marino 5,084 yds 108.9
1999 Warner 4,353 yds 109.2

 

[JJHLH1]

I realize you missed the hyperbole, so I'll try to do a better job of helping you see it this time.

The author of the article from the OP wrote that Prescott's best stretch of games equaled Romo's best over his career. The best stretch of Romo's career was games 7-13 of 2007, so an equal number of games that amounts to Prescott's best stretch would be games 3-9 of this season.

Hey Percy,

I'm not challenging you on stats since you know much more than I do on that. But I still don't think the article is hyperbole. That means obvious and intentional exaggeration, which I just don't see. I though the article was well researched and well written.

They specifically compared Prescott's first 8 games to the best-ever 8-game stretch of Romo's entire career using Total QBR as the metric: 82.1 Romo vs 80.2 Prescott. Very close indeed.

They also compared Dak vs Romo using Expected Points Added (EPA) According to that metric Prescott's first 8 games are better than all but one of Romo's eight-game stretches.

I'm not saying Dak is ready to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame just yet, but I do think the article's conclusion that Dak has played about as well as Romo ever has is valid. It may seem like hyperbole only because it is still hard to believe something like this could happen to a rookie chosen 135th in the draft. Of course the only thing that matters now is that he continues to play well in the second half of the season. Go Cowboys!

 

[percyhoward]

I'm not challenging you on stats since you know much more than I do on that. But I still don't think the article is hyperbole. That means obvious and intentional exaggeration, which I just don't see. I though the article was well researched and well written.

The big flaw in their research was in not accounting for the effect of the running game -- either the pass/run ratio or the average gain on running plays. The advantage for Prescott is that (with the exception of 3rd and long) he's passing against defenses that are mostly playing the run. Romo in 2007 was passing against defenses that were mostly concerned with stopping the pass.

To see the effect of a good QB passing against defenses that are forced to play honest, look at the NFL's leading passers for the second half of 2014, by which time defenses realized they could no longer exclusively play the pass against the Dallas Cowboys.

1 Romo 124.7
2 Rodgers 103.1
3 Wilson 101.7
4 Brees 99.5
5 Bridgewater 96.8
6 Tannehill 96.3
7 Ryan 94.4
8 Rthlsbrgr 94.2
9 Smith 94.1
10 Dalton 91.2
11 Flacco 91.1
12 EManning 91.0
13 Luck 90.8
14 Brady 89.1
15 PManning 86.4
16 Sanchez 86.2
17 Hill 86.1
18 Rivers 81.4
19 Stafford 81 .2
20 Cutler 82.7
21 Newton 82.3

Note that there is more separation between #1 Romo and # 2 Rodgers than there is between # 2 Rodgers and # 21 Newton. This is what happens when you take a QB who is already top 5, and you give him a dominating running game.

 

[Boom]

Second, if not for Eli Manning's blunder at the end of the game, the Cowboys would have loss. Surely, you're not using that game to highlight how Romo performed marvelously? The same arguments being made against Dak (he played crappy early in the game but came on strong at the end) could be said against Romo.

Actually, that was me agreeing with you.

Romo has become a legend from reading some of these comments. My point was that Dak could have a poor game with multiple INTs and be replaced by Romo, where those type games are just accepted as part of the package.

 

[tyke1doe]

Actually, that was me agreeing with you.

Romo has become a legend from reading some of these comments. My point was that Dak could have a poor game with multiple INTs and be replaced by Romo, where those type games are just accepted as part of the package.

Fair enough.

 

[ConstantReboot]

Fake the sweep? What? Why do you guys make things up. It was a simple screen that the OL did a great job on, and Zeke finished. It's not in any way shape or form an example of excellent QB play. Just stop this nonsense, please. It's like the football IQ of half the members of this boards has dropped 100 points lately.

LOL put your glasses on. I suggest you rewatch the screen. It was not that simple. The Cowboys and Dak made it look simple.

Now show me a screen Romo ran before.

 

[Kevinicus]

LOL put your glasses on. I suggest you rewatch the screen. It was not that simple. The Cowboys and Dak made it look simple.

Now show me a screen Romo ran before.

Romo has run plenty of screens. I'm sure you can find a few.

And yes, it is that simple. You don't have to make up nonsense like "fake the sweep." Maybe you should rewatch it.