Putting Dak's Numbers in Perspective

[JJHLH1]

The big flaw in their research was in not accounting for the effect of the running game -- either the pass/run ratio or the average gain on running plays. The advantage for Prescott is that (with the exception of 3rd and long) he's passing against defenses that are mostly playing the run. Romo in 2007 was passing against defenses that were mostly concerned with stopping the pass.

To see the effect of a good QB passing against defenses that are forced to play honest, look at the NFL's leading passers for the second half of 2014, by which time defenses realized they could no longer exclusively play the pass against the Dallas Cowboys.

1 Romo 124.7
2 Rodgers 103.1
3 Wilson 101.7
4 Brees 99.5
5 Bridgewater 96.8
6 Tannehill 96.3
7 Ryan 94.4
8 Rthlsbrgr 94.2
9 Smith 94.1
10 Dalton 91.2
11 Flacco 91.1
12 EManning 91.0
13 Luck 90.8
14 Brady 89.1
15 PManning 86.4
16 Sanchez 86.2
17 Hill 86.1
18 Rivers 81.4
19 Stafford 81 .2
20 Cutler 82.7
21 Newton 82.3

Note that there is more separation between #1 Romo and # 2 Rodgers than there is between # 2 Rodgers and # 21 Newton. This is what happens when you take a QB who is already top 5, and you give him a dominating running game.

Those are some pretty impressive stats and demonstrate just how well Romo played in 2014. Do you have any stats that compare Dak with Romo on 3rd and long, where defenses are presumably playing the best they can against both to stop the pass? Specifically Total QBR of each in that situation?

 

[percyhoward]

Those are some pretty impressive stats and demonstrate just how well Romo played in 2014. Do you have any stats that compare Dak with Romo on 3rd and long, where defenses are presumably playing the best they can against both to stop the pass? Specifically Total QBR of each in that situation?

On 3rd down with anything over 2 yards to go, the defense is playing pass. In 2014, Romo converted on 50.9% of his attempts, with a 106.4 rating in that situation. So far this year, Prescott has converted on 44.3% of his attempts, with a 91.3 rating in the same situation.

Another time when defenses know a pass is coming is the last 2:00 of the half when you're trailing. Prescott has an 83.6 rating in that situation so far. Romo in 2014 had a 139.6 rating.

TQBR is property of ESPN, so we only know what ESPN wants to tell us.

 

[Cowboy_Shawn]

You think Romo spent most of his career with good to great OL play?

What team do you follow?

Are you really going to go there with your revisionist history nonsense? Okay, have it your way.

Take a look at the information below and tell me again how Romo didn't have good to great offensive lines throughout most of his career. I understand Pro Football Focus isn't the definitive answer to all football facts and analytics, however most would agree that their information is usually sound.

Cowboys OL rankings since Romo's first full season as starting QB:

2007: I don't have their overall league ranking but they had 3 Pro Bowlers that year in Gurode, Davis, and Adams.
2008: Ditto in 2008 with Gurode, Davis, and Adams again making the Pro Bowl.
2009 ranked #10 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2009-offensive-line-rankings/
2010 ranked #9 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2010-offensive-line-rankings-–-part-2/
2011 ranked #15 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/ranking-the-2011-offensive-lines-part-2/
2012 ranked #22 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/ranking-the-2012-offensive-lines/2/
2013 ranked #4 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2013-offensive-line-rankings/4/
2014 ranked #1 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2014-pff-offensive-line-rankings/4/
2015 ranked #1 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-lines-this-season/

By my count that's 7 years out of 9 where he's had good to great OL play.

Now let me ask you.....what team or games have you been watching? Because it darn sure hasn't been the Cowboys.

 

[Cowboy_Shawn]

I like how you left out the time when he played behind an OL that consisted of:

Phil Costa
Nate Livings
Mackenzie Bernardeau
Doug Free (at LT)
Tyron Smith (at RT)

That G/C/G combination was by far the worst in the league

Wow, 1 or 2 years out of 10.

I like how you act as if the OL personnel that you listed has been the norm for Romo. When the truth of the matter is he's had multiple Pro Bowlers in front of him for the bulk of his career.

Look at the FACTS and stop making crap up. You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[JJHLH1]

On 3rd down with anything over 2 yards to go, the defense is playing pass. In 2014, Romo converted on 50.9% of his attempts, with a 106.4 rating in that situation. So far this year, Prescott has converted on 44.3% of his attempts, with a 91.3 rating in the same situation.

Another time when defenses know a pass is coming is the last 2:00 of the half when you're trailing. Prescott has an 83.6 rating in that situation so far. Romo in 2014 had a 139.6 rating.

TQBR is property of ESPN, so we only know what ESPN wants to tell us.

I forgot TQBR is the property of ESPN.

But I'm a little confused about why you are using 3rd and 2+ instead of 3rd and long. On the Eric Weddle thread today you pointed out just how good Dak has been in 3rd and long situations:

Um, Eric...

3rd down, 6+ yards to go
conversion rate (passes only)
1 Patriots 42.9%
2 Cowboys 37.3%
3 Chargers 36.5%
4 Browns 34.7%
5 Bucs 34.2%

Passer rating
3rd down, 6+ yards to go
1 Rivers 106.2
2 Prescott 102.8
3 Taylor 102.2
4 Ryan 102.0
5 Mariota 101.6

Those stats should give pause to those who say Dak's success is largely due to the Cowboys strong ground game. Seems he can be a weapon himself when need be.

Interestingly Dak has been very good when pressured (122.0 rating) and has been exceptional late in the 4th quarter and OT with the game on the line. Do you have the ratings for both of them during the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT? That might be the most important comparison of all - how the QB performs with the game on the line. I just hope they keep winning!

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Are you really going to go there with your revisionist history nonsense? Okay, have it your way.

Take a look at the information below and tell me again how Romo didn't have good to great offensive lines throughout most of his career. I understand Pro Football Focus isn't the definitive answer to all football facts and analytics, however most would agree that their information is usually sound.

Cowboys OL rankings since Romo's first full season as starting QB:

2007: I don't have their overall league ranking but they had 3 Pro Bowlers that year in Gurode, Davis, and Adams.
2008: Ditto in 2008 with Gurode, Davis, and Adams again making the Pro Bowl.
2009 ranked #10 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2009-offensive-line-rankings/
2010 ranked #9 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2010-offensive-line-rankings-–-part-2/
2011 ranked #15 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/ranking-the-2011-offensive-lines-part-2/
2012 ranked #22 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/ranking-the-2012-offensive-lines/2/
2013 ranked #4 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2013-offensive-line-rankings/4/
2014 ranked #1 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/2014-pff-offensive-line-rankings/4/
2015 ranked #1 in the NFL: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-lines-this-season/

By my count that's 7 years out of 9 where he's had good to great OL play.

Now let me ask you.....what team or games have you been watching? Because it darn sure hasn't been the Cowboys.

Please stop using pff for rankings.

 

[Cowboy_Shawn]

Pleas

Please stop using pff for rankings.

Got it. So we should all just stick with your "Cause I say so" argument.

No need for facts or analysis, eh?

 

[WillieBeamen]

Wow, 1 or 2 years out of 10.

I like how you act as if the OL personnel that you listed has been the norm for Romo. When the truth of the matter is he's had multiple Pro Bowlers in front of him for the bulk of his career.

Look at the FACTS and stop making crap up. You're embarrassing yourself.

Are you serious or just trolling?

So you mean to tell me, Romo has played with an elite o-line for most of his career?


2007
2008
2014
2015

Are the years in which Romo has had good-great offensive lines. But please, continue spewing nonsense, its funny.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Got it. So we should all just stick with your "Cause I say so" argument.

No need for facts or analysis, eh?

Pff ranks every individual player on every play using random people, with no knowledge of the play call and responsibilities and an obstructed downfield view. Some of their counting metrics are OK. Their rankings are trash.

Romo got to play with diminished o lineman living off reputation who had fallen off a cliff after the 2007 season. It wasn't until 2013 and 2014 when this line saw daylight.

 

[khiladi]

These articles are basically meaningless, considering Linehan is in absolute control of the offense now, with a monster OL and Zeke,

Romo had Garrett as his OC and you put Dak with Garrett as his OC, many people would be praying for Romo to come back.

Put it this way, with Garrett we were last on the league in play action. Dan Reeves was suppose to come to oversee the running game. We ran a man blocking scheme.

Romo made pro bowlers out of Gurode, Adams and Davis.

 

[khiladi]

The amusing thing is people saying Romo doesn't have the legs, when he spun Watt like a ballerina.

I don't think it was Romo himself that wanted to stand like Brady in the pocket.. much of what Romo was doing was keeping plays alive with his feet until basically 2014...

I swear people have selective memory and forget what Romo was doing and working with, because this OL is flattening DLs like it's nothing.

 

[khiladi]

It's not hyperbole to say that the Pittsburgh GAME was the first game where Dak made plays Romo never has. Dak's screen was something Romo has never executed that well. Not sure Romo could still shift so effortlessly to the left and hit Dez for the TD, but probably so we'll say for the sake of argument. I don't remember Tony leading two TD drives in the last 3 minutes buts probably happened in 10 years. The point is maybe Tony doesn't win the game in Pittsburgh.

So your saying screens were a staple of our offense before Linehan came? And that screen wasn't built on the immaculate blocking of the OL that was just recently built?

 

[khiladi]

Good grief man. Screens are all about timing. Romo has never excelled on timing routes. It took him years to even master the back shoulder throw. Check my freaking post history before you assume I have anything against Romo. But I call a spade a spade. There is a good chance Romo would not have won in Pittsburgh.

The offense is Coryell and built on timing... What are you talking about?

 

[Cowboy_Shawn]

Are you serious or just trolling?

So you mean to tell me, Romo has played with an elite o-line for most of his career?


2007
2008
2014
2015

Are the years in which Romo has had good-great offensive lines. But please, continue spewing nonsense, its funny.

Who said he's played with an elite offensive line his entire career? I'd love for you to show me where I said that. Doubt you can because those words were never used by me.

I said he's had good to great OLs for the bulk of his career. Again, GOOD TO GREAT.

One more time for those with reading comprehension issues.

GOOD

TO

GREAT.

In addition to those 4 years you highlighted, the Cowboys OL have been good in a few other years. Between 2009-2011 we still OLs that were better than average (good).

 

[percyhoward]

I forgot TQBR is the property of ESPN.

But I'm a little confused about why you are using 3rd and 2+ instead of 3rd and long. On the Eric Weddle thread today you pointed out just how good Dak has been in 3rd and long situations:

Those stats should give pause to those who say Dak's success is largely due to the Cowboys strong ground game. Seems he can be a weapon himself when need be.

Interestingly Dak has been very good when pressured (122.0 rating) and has been exceptional late in the 4th quarter and OT with the game on the line. Do you have the ratings for both of them during the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT? That might be the most important comparison of all - how the QB performs with the game on the line. I just hope they keep winning!

Weddle said their goal was to force Dak into 3rd and long, so I posted our stats on 3rd and long.

You asked how Romo and Prescott performed against defenses that were expecting pass, which is different. Since teams pass more than 90% of the time on 3rd and 3 in a normal game situation, 3rd and anything more than 2 is a passing down. If you left out 3rd and 3-5 yards, you'd be omitting more than 1/3 of Dallas' 3rd-down attempts in passing situations over those two seasons.

I have my doubts about the accuracy of the report of that 122.0 rating while under pressure. I think the author misread this chart from PFF

In any case, it's impossible that his rating under pressure could go from 63.5 to 122.0 in one week. So somebody's wrong there.

As for "late and close" situations, Romo is the best in the NFL since 2010.

4th qtr or OT (margin one score or less)
2014-15 Romo 45 of 62 (72.6%) 490 yd 7.9 ypa 6 td 2 int 114.3
2016 Prescott 35 of 57 (61.4%) 419 yd 7.2 ypa 2 td 0 int 94.9

 

[percyhoward]

I see so much about Dak being a game manager, or far more inconsistent than Romo, etc., that I think some fail to see the sort of season he is actually putting together.

Here's what Dak is on pace for if you extrapolate his stats out to a 16-game season:

4,158 passing yards, 66.8 completion %, 32 total TDs, 4 INTs, 8.4 YPA, 222 rushing yards and 9 total turnovers.

Most people don't realize how huge a season that would be, if it played out that way. The only players with 4,000 yards and a 100 rating in their first 3 seasons are Marino '84 and Warner '99 -- and neither was a rookie.

 

[sbark]

In 2014, Romo never reached 300 yards at the end of 4 quarters. Not once.

It's not the volume that matters, it's the efficiency.

Thus why Aikman has 3 rings and HOF shingle................

 

[mattjames2010]

We really doing revisionist history here? Romo had a "good" offensive line from 2009-2013?

LOL Romo, in that time span, was sacked over 100 times. We were bottom 5 in pass protection, and if we had a statue QB, he would have been sacked about 50 times. Even in 2014, our pass blocking was inconsistent.

 

[reddyuta]

We really doing revisionist history here? Romo had a "good" offensive line from 2009-2013?

LOL Romo, in that time span, was sacked over 100 times. We were bottom 5 in pass protection, and if we had a statue QB, he would have been sacked about 50 times. Even in 2014, our pass blocking was inconsistent.

Even this year its not perfect by any means but we dont hold our breath the moment the QB gets hit.

 

[ConstantReboot]

Romo has run plenty of screens. I'm sure you can find a few.

And yes, it is that simple. You don't have to make up nonsense like "fake the sweep." Maybe you should rewatch it.

The burden of proof is not on me. Its on you my friend. I don't believe that Romo has run many screens at all. If he did where are they?

Lastly, its you that needs to rewatch that screen pass. First, there was a Play action to Zeke. Secondly, the fake sweep play to Lucky Whitehead. Then there was the screen pass to Zeke. All played a very important part in freezing the defense and kept them guessing. If you can't see that happened than I really feel bad for you. I really do.

Now where are those Romo videos running the screens?