News: Quarterback trap

[Stash]

Well this year Dak is still under contract. Next year the Franchise tag is ~ 25 million. So that is one option.
I would let him play out his contract. If he plays great again pay him next year.
Why pay him a year early?

This is your best point in this entire thread.

 

[dckid]

This is your best point in this entire thread.

Lol, That is one more than you.

 

[Stash]

Lol, That is one more than you.

Tell yourself whatever you need to. Learn nothing. Stay ignorant.

 

[Philmonroe]

I think there is still much improvement that Dak must work on and at this stage do not see him as elite. As for his contract it is hard to argue on a contract that has not been done. There are rumors about the numbers but it is just that rumors until a contract is completed.

How long do y’all truly think Dak can “improve”? It’s like lifting weights to me you can’t just continue to up and up on weights. At some point you reach your peak and the gains don’t come as easy or as big as before. I think Dak is getting close to that skills wise. Not many that have been starting start getting skills they haven’t had in their first fews to appear later down the line. Hopefully I’m wrong for team sake but I don’t think it’s much that will improve. Dak has had the same complaints esp regarding accuracy since college and they haven’t changed. What’s going to make them improve now? Again hope I’m wrong but 2mill or 30mill I think Dak is mainly who he is going to be for the rest of his career as a passer but for team sake hope I’m wrong.

 

[dckid]

Tell yourself whatever you need to. Learn nothing. Stay ignorant.

Good discussion. I think I have learned quite a bit. Internet discussion I guess don't change anyone's opinion. I don't think our viewpoint is that different but what can you do?
We are human so have our biased viewpoint.

I just don't think Dak should be paid at an elite level. I saw the Cousins article and of course the Vikings instantly regret over paying him just like the Cowboys will also instantly regret paying Dak.

 

[Corso]

STASH SMASH!!!

 

[Stash]

How long do y’all truly think Dak can “improve”? It’s like lifting weights to me you can’t just continue to up and up on weights. At some point you reach your peak and the gains don’t come as easy or as big as before. I think Dak is getting close to that skills wise. Not many that have been starting start getting skills they haven’t had in their first fews to appear later down the line. Hopefully I’m wrong for team sake but I don’t think it’s much that will improve. Dak has had the same complaints esp regarding accuracy since college and they haven’t changed. What’s going to make them improve now? Again hope I’m wrong but 2mill or 30mill I think Dak is mainly who he is going to be for the rest of his career as a passer but for team sake hope I’m wrong.

I look at comparisons like this and I feel optimistic:

https://www.pro-football-reference....toyear_2=2018&player_id2=PresDa01&idx=players

Drew Brees didn't become "Drew Brees" until he started working with Sean Payton - six years into his career - I have faith that with the right coaching, Dak can improve in much the same way.

 

[Stash]

STASH SMASH!!!

 

[Stash]

Good discussion. I think I have learned quite a bit. Internet discussion I guess don't change anyone's opinion. I don't think our viewpoint is that different but what can you do?
We are human so have our biased viewpoint.

I just don't think Dak should be paid at an elite level. I saw the Cousins article and of course the Vikings instantly regret over paying him just like the Cowboys will also instantly regret paying Dak.

Well said. I agree.


And I don't disagree with you about that article's premise. It's a valid point. There's huge risk in paying this kind of money for these guys. Signing Dak comes with risk, we may end up in the same boat as Oakland, Detroit, Minnesota, and others. But again, the flip side is becoming one of the league's "have-not's" with no quarterback at all. Or trusting the guys that loved Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook more than Dak to now make the right decision. Now there's some "risk" for ya!

 

[Philmonroe]

I look at comparisons like this and I feel optimistic:

https://www.pro-football-reference....toyear_2=2018&player_id2=PresDa01&idx=players

Drew Brees didn't become "Drew Brees" until he started working with Sean Payton - six years into his career - I have faith that with the right coaching, Dak can improve in much the same way.

Maybe but that’s outlier stuff to me. We both know that’s not the norm. Like you I hope it happens but even in this situation I think Brees was a better qb than Dak was even in the SD days. I could be misremembering since it’s been so long ago. When a player or person has the same flaws year after year unless it’s a dramatic shock to the system I doubt they will change. It’s like a person who is overweight for years what’s the chances of them losing the weight and keeping it off for good? That’s Dak accuracy to me and I hope I’m wrong but history says the safe bet is betting against permanent change at this point.

 

[pansophy]

As I said, it depends on which risk you want to take. Both decisions undeniably involve some measure of risk.

But at the end of the day, you either pay Dak - who has outperformed both Goff and Wentz to this point - or you try to find another quarterback. And trust the same people who wanted to draft Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook, to do that for you.

Cast your votes folks!

There is uncertainty and Jerry's ability to pull the trigger under great uncertainty is why he is rich, and also why our draft picks tend to be big hits or big busts. I don't think Dak is going to be a big bust, but he does need a lot of talent around him to be successful. That's where the big contract makes me worried.

They have more info than anyone and in my opinion at least continues to show signs of improving. So I don't think we have seen his ceiling. I don't think Dak sucks, I just think that there is reason to be worried that a big contract could be problematic. The Jones seem more disciplined than ever before so I'll just trust that whatever they sign him too will be okay.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Well this year Dak is still under contract. Next year the Franchise tag is ~ 25 million. So that is one option.
I would let him play out his contract. If he plays great again pay him next year.
Why pay him a year early?

What's your basis for thinking the franchise tag for next year will be $25M?

The top 5 CAP hits for 2020 as of now before even more crazy contracts are $33.5, $33.5, $32.6, $31.5, and $31.

That would put the franchise tag next year(again before it goes higher by more contracts) at $32.6M. You want Dak's CAP hit to be $32.6M next year?

And you're saying resign if he plays well.

So option A) sign resign him now and spread it over the additional rookie contract year. So if he signed for 5/$150 it'd be average CAP hits of $25M and his guaranteed portion being paid in all years.

Or your option B) let him play for low CAP hit this year, tag him at $32.6M, then sign him at the 2021 market value of $36M+ AAV with average cap hits of that $36M. And not eating up ANY of the guaranteed portion the first two years.

 

[Stash]

Maybe but that’s outlier stuff to me. We both know that’s not the norm. Like you I hope it happens but even in this situation I think Brees was a better qb than Dak was even in the SD days. I could be misremembering since it’s been so long ago.

I invite you to take a really good look at the numbers I showed you. I even gave Brees a "mulligan" for his rookie year as he didn't play as much as Dak did. He looks even worse otherwise. And keep in mind that the Chargers drafted Rivers to replace Brees while he was still there.

When a player or person has the same flaws year after year unless it’s a dramatic shock to the system I doubt they will change. It’s like a person who is overweight for years what’s the chances of them losing the weight and keeping it off for good? That’s Dak accuracy to me and I hope I’m wrong but history says the safe bet is betting against permanent change at this point.

As with the Brees example, I think improved coaching can play a huge role in a player's development and improvement. And then keep in mind that this is a staff that couldn't even field a competitive team without Romo saving their *** at every turn.

 

[Stash]

There is uncertainty and Jerry's ability to pull the trigger under great uncertainty is why he is rich, and also why our draft picks tend to be big hits or big busts. I don't think Dak is going to be a big bust, but he does need a lot of talent around him to be successful. That's where the big contract makes me worried.

They have more info than anyone and in my opinion at least continues to show signs of improving. So I don't think we have seen his ceiling. I don't think Dak sucks, I just think that there is reason to be worried that a big contract could be problematic. The Jones seem more disciplined than ever before so I'll just trust that whatever they sign him too will be okay.

There's no reason not to be "worried". It's a huge financial commitment.

 

[Hennessy_King]

What's your basis for thinking the franchise tag for next year will be $25M?

The top 5 CAP hits for 2020 as of now before even more crazy contracts are $33.5, $33.5, $32.6, $31.5, and $31.

That would put the franchise tag next year(again before it goes higher by more contracts) at $32.6M. You want Dak's CAP hit to be $32.6M next year?

And you're saying resign if he plays well.

So option A) sign resign him now and spread it over the additional rookie contract year. So if he signed for 5/$150 it'd be average CAP hits of $25M and his guaranteed portion being paid in all years.

Or your option B) let him play for low CAP hit this year, tag him at $32.6M, then sign him at the 2021 market value of $36M+ AAV with average cap hits of that $36M. And not eating up ANY of the guaranteed portion the first two years.

Lol tell em fam

 

[Simpleton]

The organization can easily afford Prescott, Elliott and Cooper, assuming their total combined AAV is around 62-64. Most of the core (Smith/Martin/Frederick/Lawrence) is already locked up and the only true casualties will be guys like Byron Jones, who is easily replaceable in Richard's scheme, and La'el Collins, who is an average player to begin with. There will still be enough room to keep guys like Anthony Brown, Chidobe Awuzie, Xavier Woods, and Maliek Collins. Not all of them, but probably 2 of them.

The key will be to keep drafting well so that you can consistently re-stock the roster with starters on rookie deals like Gallup, Awuzie, Woods, etc. They don't have to all be studs like LVE or Jaylon, but guys who can be solid starters for 3-4 years. If we can hit on Hill, McGovern and one of the 5th-7th rounders as starters that's a win moving forward.

Looking at the Vikings, their top 10 2020 cap hits (excluding Cousins) totals approximately $128 million. If you exclude Everson Griffen who will likely be cut, that number drops to about $120 million, which is still a massive number when you consider that it doesn't include Cousins' number.

Then take a look at our top 10 cap hits in 2020 and that number is only about $94 million. If you toss in a Cooper extension with a 17 AAV that number goes up to about 109, which is still significantly less than where the Vikings are at. Then you have to factor in that we could easily cut Crawford and save about 8, which would put our top 10 at only about $101 million and leaves us with more than enough room to retain a guy like Brown or Maliek Collins if we really want to.

Basically, we are actually set up pretty well to absorb these big contracts while still retaining some of our roleplayer types, we just have to keep drafting well.

 

[gjkoeppen]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

Great article talking about the QB trap that the Vikings fell into last off season. Sounds a heck of a lot like the situation we are headed towards with Dak.

The Vikings flew straight into the pitcher plant with Cousins by paying a premium for a journeyman whose only hope for an MVP season comes from being surrounded by a superteam.

Just because the market says $30 million for your QB who is hitting Free agency at the right time doesn't mean he is Brees, Wilson, Rodgers, Luck.
Dak is an average starter. You can win with him, he won't kill you with a 5 turnover game. I never expect him to carry this team because I know what to expect. He has a solid floor and a low celing. Not someone I want to pay 30 million a year for.
All the Dak lovers can spin doctor this all day, but if you are actually honest with yourself. Dak is not an elite QB, and I am not insulting him. He is what he is. A good QB who should be paid fairly. To me that number is what Foles is getting in Jacksonville.

Where as I agree to not pay Prescott 30 mil a season, I do disagree to some extent about Prescott's ability. The 2nd half of last season the times late in the 4th quarter with 2 -4 minutes left and the Cowboys needing a score, usually a TD to win and Prescott drove the Cowboys down the field and got it. He did quite well running the 2 min. offense.
.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Lol tell em fam

We should have done this with Tank
Should do it with Dak and Cooper now

People just don't understand the point of the franchise tag.

 

[Qcard]

Kirk Cousins is a talented pure passer who is awesome at putting up stats, but plays his worst in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line.

Dak Prescott is not as talented at purely passion, but has proven that he plays his best football in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line.

The point is, Prescott and Cousins have a lot of differences. So the outcome could be far different.

Furthermore, the Vikings having a down season last year, isn’t due to any cap restraints from signing Cousins. So the 30mil/year figure isn’t even proven to be a reason the Vikings weren’t successful.

Don't let facts get in the way of another Dak thread...

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Trevor Lawrence 2021.