Rating the 3-4 Prospects

[masomenos]

What follows is each players strength and explosion rating (using Pat Kirwan's formula). It's worth noting that Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman both scored 75 while Luis Castillo scored a 77. Other players to score 70 or higher include Joey Porter, Brian Urlacher, Kris Jenkins, Tommie Harris, Jonathan Vilma, Mario Williams, Kamerion Wimbley, Jason Hatcher, A.J. Hawk, and Demeco Ryans. Scoring above a 70 is fairly rare and while it doesn't mean that a player is destined for greatness it is one tool that can be used in the evaluation process. Also, in parenthesis are each players quickness score (also a Kirwan formula) with .5 or higher being very quick.

Tank Tyler - 78 (.42)
Brian Robison - 77 (.41)
LaMarr Woodley - 77 (.32)
Stewart Bradley - 72 (.55)
Anthony Spencer - 71 (.27)
Patrick Willis - 71 (.05)
Zak DeOssie - 70 (.36)
Alan Branch - 69 (.28)
David Harris - 65 (.30)
Dan Bazuin - 64 (.02)
Brandon Siler - 62 (.23)
Quentin Moses - 58 (.29)
Jarvis Moss - 56 (.29)

And, for kicks here are where some of our other front 7 players stand:
70 or More
Demarcus Ware - 75 (.49)
Akin Ayodele - 71 (.65)
Jason Hatcher - 72 (.32)

69 or Less
Jay Ratliff - 69 (.62)
Kevin Burnett - 67 (?)
Bobby Carpenter - approx. 65 (.34)
Marcus Spears - approx. 64 (.61)
Bradie James - approx. 64 (.17)

Unknown
Jason Ferguson
Chris Canty
Greg Ellis

 

[Teague31]

thats what i have been saying about spencer... no speed! when he is not rated as fast as NT prospects you have problems. no way this guy should be our pick at 22. if we trade back into round 2 i have less of a problem with it.

 

[superpunk]

Thanks for compiling that, maso. All this stuff is fun to read up to the draft. I'm firmly in the Robison in round 2 camp. With explosiveness ratings like that, Tyler could be a heck of a fit in Wade's one gap slanting defense. Quite the force to be reckoned with in the passing game, likely.

 

[masomenos]

Thanks for compiling that, maso. All this stuff is fun to read up to the draft. I'm firmly in the Robison in round 2 camp. With explosiveness ratings like that, Tyler could be a heck of a fit in Wade's one gap slanting defense. Quite the force to be reckoned with in the passing game, likely.

Paul Soiali rate's highly too, I added him in an edit but I guess it didn't stick, I think he was about a 74 and a .44, very good scores and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Dallas went after him or Tyler.

 

[masomenos]

thats what i have been saying about spencer... no speed! when he is not rated as fast as NT prospects you have problems. no way this guy should be our pick at 22. if we trade back into round 2 i have less of a problem with it.

Notice that Patrick Willis is even lower than Spencer. It's not a true indication of speed but rather of relative quickness. Spencer has all the speed needed to pressure from the outside as his 10 yard time compares favorably with the likes of Ware, Shaun Phillips, Joey Porter, Kamerion Wimbley and Adalius Thomas. I agree he shouldn't be picked at 22 because he lacks the coverage skills necesarry to be a complete player, but it's not his speed that's a huge issue, more his hip flexibility and fluidity.

 

[tomson75]

thats what i have been saying about spencer... no speed! when he is not rated as fast as NT prospects you have problems. no way this guy should be our pick at 22. if we trade back into round 2 i have less of a problem with it.

This isn't just a measure of speed, its an overall measument of "explosion" that also takes into account Bench Press Reps + Vert. Jump + Broad Jump. Anything above 70 is considered Superb elite. Spencer would be a valuable addtion to this defense...in the right spot (27-30).

Having said that, I think getting Robison in the third would be an even bigger value...I have no idea why he's rated as low as he is. I only watched four (maybe five) longhorns games this year, but he stood out in all of them. Tremendous athlete. I'd be willing to bet he can still cover TE's too.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Good stuff, but i have a question. Where did this info/ratings come from? Did you compile yourself or did Kirwan do this?

 

[tomson75]

Good stuff, but i have a question. Where did this info/ratings come from? Did you compile yourself or did Kirwan do this?

Here's an article from last year that helps explain his reasoning:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/9326200

 

[masomenos]

Good stuff, but i have a question. Where did this info/ratings come from? Did you compile yourself or did Kirwan do this?

I compiled it, its just his formulas that I read from a couple years back. Here's a link http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/8322692 . I haven't seen him do it for this year, or any other year besides 2005. I used the NFL Draft Scout database to look up past prospects and all the players on our team and then just plugged their numbers into the formulas.

edit: I stand corrected, I guess he did it last year too.

 

[theogt]

Notice that Patrick Willis is even lower than Spencer. It's not a true indication of speed but rather of relative quickness. Spencer has all the speed needed to pressure from the outside as his 10 yard time compares favorably with the likes of Ware, Shaun Phillips, Joey Porter, Kamerion Wimbley and Adalius Thomas. I agree he shouldn't be picked at 22 because he lacks the coverage skills necesarry to be a complete player, but it's not his speed that's a huge issue, more his hip flexibility and fluidity.

Why do you say this? By all accounts his ability to drop back into coverage is what attracts people to him as a 3-4 OLB. In addition he had one of the fastest 3-cone times of all DEs in this class.

And as you ponted out his 10-yard time is not bad. It's not blazing, but it's more than adequate. It was actually one of the better times among DEs. And for a 265+ guy to run a 4.69 and 4.70 40-yard time, to say this guy isn't fast or lacks speed is just beyond me. The amount of uninformed crap that's spewed about these players is unreal sometimes.

 

[theogt]

By the way, Kirwan's formula is extremely flawed. He adds the raw numbers together and that's not very helpful. You have to adjust each variable such that they have equal variance. Otherwise the results are crazy.

Example:

Player A has a 40" Vertical, a 8' Broad Jump, and 30 Bench Press Reps.
Total Score: 78

Player B has a 40" Vertical, a 10' Broad Jump, and 27 Bench Press Reps.
Total Score: 77

Who has the better stats? Player has the higher total score, but clearly Player B has the better overall stats. The problem is that each variable isn't adjusted to reduce variance to equal measures.

 

[masomenos]

Why do you say this? By all accounts his ability to drop back into coverage is what attracts people to him as a 3-4 OLB.

Just look at his agility times, they're below average for a 34 OLB.
Anthony Spencer: 4.43, 7.14
Demarcus Ware: 4.07, 6.85
Kamerion Wimbley: 4.22, 6.98
Bobby Carpenter: 4.31, 6.88
Manny Lawson: 4.21, 6.90

And look at some of the quotes from scouting reports:
"[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]Has good backpedal skills, but is a bit stiff in his hips trying to turn" NFL Draft Scout

[/SIZE][/FONT]"He is quick and fast, but he doesn't possess great change-of-direction skills...He shows stiffness in his hips and will be limited in terms of dropping into coverage in the NFL." Scouts Inc
[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]
[/SIZE][/FONT]

 

[masomenos]

By the way, Kirwan's formula is extremely flawed. He adds the raw numbers together and that's not very helpful. You have to adjust each variable such that they have equal variance. Otherwise the results are crazy.

Example:

Player A has a 40" Vertical, a 8' Broad Jump, and 30 Bench Press Reps.
Total Score: 78

Player B has a 40" Vertical, a 10' Broad Jump, and 27 Bench Press Reps.
Total Score: 77

Who has the better stats? Player has the higher total score, but clearly Player B has the better overall stats. The problem is that each variable isn't adjusted to reduce variance to equal measures.

This is easily corrected, you just don't include players who are too far below average in any given category, such as a player who only has an 8' broad jump.

 

[dboyz]

The number in parentheses comes, as I understand it, comes from subracting the short shuttle from the 40 yard dash time. Kirwan figures your short shuttle should be about .5 seconds faster than your shuttle.

The problem as I see it is if you run a phenomenal 40 yard dash time, like say Willis, it's tougher to be that much faster in the shuttle. I can see how it might be relevant say for someone who doesn't have much track speed, for instance I would bet the numbers for someone like Dat Nguyen would be quite good, however for someone with great speed, expecting an improvement of .5 seconds seems unrealistic.

 

[theogt]

Just look at his agility times, they're below average for a 34 OLB.
Anthony Spencer: 4.43, 7.14
Demarcus Ware: 4.07, 6.85
Kamerion Wimbley: 4.22, 6.98
Bobby Carpenter: 4.31, 6.88
Manny Lawson: 4.21, 6.90

Honestly, you picked some of the best times by DEs ever -- what people consider "freakish" measurables -- to compare him to. A 7.14 Cone Drill is very impressive. He's not a "freakish" athlete, but a lot of players aren't. Terrell Suggs isn't and he was a fine 3-4 OLB. Will Smith, Shaun Phillips, and Adalius Thomas didn't have "freakish" numbers, but they're all very good players -- players that most of us would kill to have. Spencer's numbers are right in line with those kinds of players.

It's not as if his times are a negative. They're all fine times.

And look at some of the quotes from scouting reports:
"[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]Has good backpedal skills, but is a bit stiff in his hips trying to turn" NFL Draft Scout

[/SIZE][/FONT]"He is quick and fast, but he doesn't possess great change-of-direction skills...He shows stiffness in his hips and will be limited in terms of dropping into coverage in the NFL." Scouts Inc

And there's this from NFL Draft Scout:

[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]"Has the quick change of direction agility to work down the line and his speed and range dropping back in pass coverage [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2] could see him develop into a 3-4 outside linebacker[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]"[/SIZE][/FONT]

And this:

"[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]has the lateral quickness, instincts, and agility to play linebacker at the next level."

And this:

"[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]I'm consistently impressed with Spencer's burst off the edge, lateral quickness, and especially his use of hands. For this reason, I remain convinced that Spencer, even with marginal 40 times (4.70), can be effective not only as a 4-3 defensive end, but as a 3-4 pass rusher, as well."[/SIZE][/FONT]

 

[theogt]

This is easily corrected, you just don't include players who are too far below average in any given category, such as a player who only has an 8' broad jump.

That's not the best way to correct the problem. The best way to correct it is to add a divisor to each variable such that each has an equivalent variance.

For an example of how this is done, look at the QB Rating formula. You're taking multiple variables that don't translate as raw numbers and coverting them into numbers that can.

 

[joseephuss]

This isn't just a measure of speed, its an overall measument of "explosion" that also takes into account Bench Press Reps + Vert. Jump + Broad Jump. Anything above 70 is considered Superb elite. Spencer would be a valuable addtion to this defense...in the right spot (27-30).

Having said that, I think getting Robison in the third would be an even bigger value...I have no idea why he's rated as low as he is. I only watched four (maybe five) longhorns games this year, but he stood out in all of them. Tremendous athlete. I'd be willing to bet he can still cover TE's too.

I saw him not shine in several games. A third may be reaching, but he is a solid 4th. Spencer may be a slight reach at #22, but he will be good value after that. The Cowboys need to draft a pass rusher or two in this draft at some point. These two can be decent picks and there are a few more options.

 

[masomenos]

Honestly, you picked some of the best times by DEs ever -- what people consider "freakish" measurables -- to compare him to. A 7.14 Cone Drill is very impressive. He's not a "freakish" athlete, but a lot of players aren't. Terrell Suggs isn't and he was a fine 3-4 OLB. Will Smith, Shaun Phillips, and Adalius Thomas didn't have "freakish" numbers, but they're all very good players -- players that most of us would kill to have. Spencer's numbers are right in line with those kinds of players.

It's not as if his times are a negative. They're all fine times.

And there's this from NFL Draft Scout:

[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]"Has the quick change of direction agility to work down the line and his speed and range dropping back in pass coverage [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2] could see him develop into a 3-4 outside linebacker[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]"[/SIZE][/FONT]

And this:

"[FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]has the lateral quickness, instincts, and agility to play linebacker at the next level."

And this:

"[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Geneva,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][SIZE=-2]I'm consistently impressed with Spencer's burst off the edge, lateral quickness, and especially his use of hands. For this reason, I remain convinced that Spencer, even with marginal 40 times (4.70), can be effective not only as a 4-3 defensive end, but as a 3-4 pass rusher, as well."[/SIZE][/FONT]

Shaun Phillips times were 4.27 and 6.95, markedly better than Spencers. There is only one time available for Adalius Thomas so that's incomplete and Will Smith doesn't play in a 34 as an OLB and doesn't drop into coverage nearly as much so it doesn't really matter what his times were. I didn't just choose the best times, I just chose the times from recently selected 34 OLBs. Spencer's times rank below the times of other recently selected OLBs, that should be cause for some concern.

Two of the quotes you cited don't even talk about coverage ability. They talk about agility and COD skills, sure, but there's a difference in forward moving agility and how quick a player can turn their hips and go from a backpedal facing the QB to a running form facing away from the QB. I think Spencer will probably be fine in most coverage situations, but there are times when he'll be more easily exploited than some of the other players at his position and that's why I don't think he's really a complete prospect. I wouldn't really complain if we took him at 22 because I think he brings terrific pressure off of the edge and he plays with a ton of intensity but he's just a little less athletic than one would like.

Here's another quote from Scouts Inc, "While some consider him a 'tweener defensive end/outside linebacker, we're not convinced he's athletic enough to play linebacker in the NFL." While I don't think it's nearly that big of an issue I certainly do think it's somewhere between the two extremes. I mean if Greg Ellis was able to handle coverage duties marginally well then there's no doubt in my mind that a more athletic Spencer would be able to do better. There are some reservations though.

 

[masomenos]

That's not the best way to correct the problem. The best way to correct it is to add a divisor to each variable such that each has an equivalent variance.

For an example of how this is done, look at the QB Rating formula. You're taking multiple variables that don't translate as raw numbers and coverting them into numbers that can.

You're right lol, it's not the best way, but it is the easiest way. Again, it's Kirwan's formula, not mine, but I would imagine that his thinking is that you wouldn't want a player who did 45 bench reps but only a 20inch vert and an 8 inch broad jump because it's not a true indicator of the "explosion" ability of the player. So by eliminating players who are far below the average you're still able to get fairly reliable results.

With that said, I'm all for coming up with our own explosion rating that's more in line with what you're talking about.

 

[masomenos]

The number in parentheses comes, as I understand it, comes from subracting the short shuttle from the 40 yard dash time. Kirwan figures your short shuttle should be about .5 seconds faster than your shuttle.

The problem as I see it is if you run a phenomenal 40 yard dash time, like say Willis, it's tougher to be that much faster in the shuttle. I can see how it might be relevant say for someone who doesn't have much track speed, for instance I would bet the numbers for someone like Dat Nguyen would be quite good, however for someone with great speed, expecting an improvement of .5 seconds seems unrealistic.

It is an interesting problem. I think it's something that needs to be looked at in conjunction with the players actual time and how it stacks up against other times at that position. In Willis' case he actually is a little slower (or less quick I guess) than some of the other prospects, but it does seem like his quickness score is unfairly low despite calculating his worst 40 yard dash time.