Rating the 3-4 Prospects

[theogt]

This twist? The waltz?! Sounds like someone watched too much Dancing With the Stars when Emmitt was on there. :
Really though, I think you're right that we can find another quality 34 OLB later on with a guy like Stewart Bradley, Lemarr Woodley or even Brian Robison.

As far as CBs...I just don't think we'll have a guy worth taking at #22 unless Revis or Fall fall. I'm fine with a CB with our first pick but going after a guy like Ross without trading back just wouldn't be good value.

If we don't get Spencer in the 1st, Woodley in the 2nd, or Robison in the 3rd....I'll cry like a little baby.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

If we don't get Spencer in the 1st, Woodley in the 2nd, or Robison in the 3rd....I'll cry like a little baby.

me too, except for I could throw Lawrence Timmons, Tim Shaw, Zak DeOssie in there as well

 

[theogt]

me too, except for I could throw Lawrence Timmons, Tim Shaw, Zak DeOssie in there as well

I could handle DeOssie in the 3rd, but I don't want Timmons or Shaw. We've already got Kevin Burnett on the team, why would we need another one?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I could handle DeOssie in the 3rd, but I don't want Timmons or Shaw. We've already got Kevin Burnett on the team, why would we need another one?

because Burnett is seemingly always hurt, I'm not relying on Burnett right now

btw, don't recall asking for your approval

 

[BouncingCheese]

Alright... lets draft anyone that doesn't have a good # of sacks in college because 1 guy didn't do well in the NFL and he had a lot of sacks in college.

:laugh2: hehehe

 

[jobberone]

Spencer is definitely a reach at 22, but he will be gone by Baltimore's pick/Patriots' pick. Baltimore wants to replace Adalius Thomas, the Patriots want to replace Rosevelt Colvin or Vrabel...They will get him if he is availible, remember, the Pats reached to get Logan Mankins, a second-round talent, and he is a pro bowler now. If we stay at 22, and skip Spencer, we won't have another chance to get him.

That's find with me. I've waxed and waned on the first pick but I'm settling in on a DB. I would consider Javis Moss or other highly rated pick if they fall to 22. And that doesn't take trading up or down in consideration. Just the 22 pick.

This twist? The waltz?! Sounds like someone watched too much Dancing With the Stars when Emmitt was on there. :
Really though, I think you're right that we can find another quality 34 OLB later on with a guy like Stewart Bradley, Lemarr Woodley or even Brian Robison.

As far as CBs...I just don't think we'll have a guy worth taking at #22 unless Revis or Fall fall. I'm fine with a CB with our first pick but going after a guy like Ross without trading back just wouldn't be good value.

I'm not high on Ross. I doubt Landry or Hall falls. But one of Nelson, Meriweather, Revis, Ross, or Houston should be there.

If we don't get Spencer in the 1st, Woodley in the 2nd, or Robison in the 3rd....I'll cry like a little baby.

Tape it and post it somewhere so we can all enjoy. :
Actually the chances of one being there is not that bad. Even for a specific round. I'd wish you luck but I'm wishing otherwise.

 

[masomenos]

Here, I decided to break down each players stats over the past two seasons and put them next to their ratings from the Kirwan formulas. Edit: I've also added the 10yd dash time for the LB prospects in parenthesis after the stats.

OLB/DE Hybrids
Brian Robison - 77 (.41) 95 tackles, 24 TFL, 12.5 sacks, 25 pressures (1.49)
LaMarr Woodley - 77 (.32) 84 tackles, 30.5 TFL, 19 sacks, ? pressures (1.65)
Anthony Spencer - 71 (.27) 116 tackles, 34 TFL, 13.5 sacks, ? pressures (1.6)
Dan Bazuin - 64 (.02) 141 tackles, 41.5 TFL, 26.5 sacks, 3 pressures (1.61)
Quentin Moses - 58 (.29) 77 tackles, 32.5 TFL, 16 sacks, 70 pressures (1.59)
Jarvis Moss - 56 (.29) 81 tackles, 22 TFL, 15 sacks, 14 pressures (1.55)

Dan Bazuin was the most productive player but also played against a lower level of competition. I don't know if the pressure stats are correct for Quentin Moses or not, but if they are then he was incredibly disruptive. Guys like Woodley and Robison compare favorably to Anthony Spencer and Jarvis Moss is kind of the odd man out except for the fact that he has such a good burst.

True LBs
Stewart Bradley* - 72 (.55) 102 tackles, 11 TFL, 4 sacks, 12 pressures (1.58)
Patrick Willis - 71 (.05) 265 tackles, 21 TFL, 6 sacks, 3 pressures (1.52)
Zak DeOssie - 70 (.36) 190 tackles, 22.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 4 pressures (1.56)
David Harris - 65 (.30) 184 tackles, 20 TFL, 4 sacks, ? pressures (1.53)
Brandon Siler - 62 (.23) 141 tackles, 19 TFL, 7 sacks, 10 pressures (1.56)

*Only played in 5 games in 2005

Patrick Willis certainly shows why he's a top 15 prospect as his production numbers are terrific. Based on the statistics it looks like Siler may be the best pass rusher of the group with Bradley contesting him for that. DeOssie of course played against a lower level of competition, but was very productive in doing so. Really it seems like a very balanced group.

DT
Tank Tyler - 78 (.42) 78 tackles, 15 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 5 pressures
Alan Branch - 69 (.28) 56 tackles, 13 TFL, 7 sacks, 5 pressures
Paul Soliai* - 68 (.45) 70 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 sacks, ? pressures

*Only started one season, stats are estimations

Branch is the best at getting pressure on the QB but it seems like Tylers overall strength allowed him to make more plays in the running game. Soliai is a good deal behind the other two in terms of TFL.

I was very surprised with Quentin Moses' stats, I've been down on him for a while but he was a very productive player. He's not a great athlete though and may have some concerns in coverage, but if we're looking strictly for a pressure type guy then he wouldn't be a bad choice. He has a terrific burst and could be quite disruptive. If he turns out to be better in coverage than I'm thinking or if you can rotate him or mask his problems with schemes then he could be a terrific player.

 

[theogt]

Here, I decided to break down each players stats over the past two seasons and put them next to their ratings from the Kirwan formulas.

OLB/DE Hybrids
Brian Robison - 77 (.41) 95 tackles, 24 TFL, 12.5 sacks, 25 pressures
LaMarr Woodley - 77 (.32) 84 tackles, 30.5 TFL, 19 sacks, ? pressures
Anthony Spencer - 71 (.27) 116 tackles, 34 TFL, 13.5 sacks, ? pressures
Dan Bazuin - 64 (.02) 141 tackles, 41.5 TFL, 26.5 sacks, 3 pressures
Quentin Moses - 58 (.29) 77 tackles, 32.5 TFL, 16 sacks, 70 pressures
Jarvis Moss - 56 (.29) 81 tackles, 22 TFL, 15 sacks, 14 pressures

Dan Bazuin was the most productive player but also played against a lower level of competition. I don't know if the pressure stats are correct for Quentin Moses or not, but if they are then he was incredibly disruptive. Guys like Woodley and Robison compare favorably to Anthony Spencer and Jarvis Moss is kind of the odd man out.

70 pressures?

But seriously, pressures aren't a good stat. They're extremely subjective. You can have a stat counter for a team that hands them out like candy.

As for most productive, I'd say that goes to Spencer. When looking at production, I only consider the players' previous 2 seasons. Anything beyond that and there are just too many variables (e.g., injury, upper classmen, ignorant coaches).

Here's the formula I use:

=((('05 Tackles / 10) + ('05 TFL / 5) + ('05 Sacks / 2)) /5) + (('06 Tackles / 10) + ('06 TFL /5) + ('06 Sacks/2))

This discounts the '05 season as compared to the '06 season for obvious reasons.

Here are the results:

Spencer, Anthony......20.91
Bazuin, Dan...........19.09
Anderson, Jamaal......18.91
Adams, Gaines.........18.62
Bruce, Mkristo........18.34
Crowder, Tim..........16.41
Abiamiri, Victor......14.87
Woodley, LaMarr.......14.84
Carriker, Adam........14.39
Johnson, Charles......14.15

I have to adjust these a little because these are total numbers. I'm going to do "per game" numbers sometime because that's slightly more accurate.

 

[masomenos]

The way I have the DE/OLB hybrids rated is:

Overall

Tier 1
1. Anthony Spencer 38.3 (Projected Late 1st - Early 2nd)
2. LaMarr Woodley 37.2 (Projected 2nd)

Tier 2
3. Brian Robison 36.2 (Projected 4th)
4. Dan Bazuin 35.7 (Projected 3rd)

Tier 3
5. Quentin Moses 33.1 (Projected Late 2nd - Early 3rd)
6. Jarvis Moss 32.8 (Projected Late 1st - Early 2nd)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Pressure

Tier 1
1. LaMarr Woodley 9.9
2. Jarvis Moss 9.7

Tier 2
3. Quentin Moses 9.6
4. Brian Robison 9.6
5. Dan Bazuin 9.5
6. Anthony Spencer 9.5
--------------------------------------------------------------
Coverage

Tier 1
1. Brian Robison 10.5

Tier 2
2. Anthony Spencer 10.1
3. Jarvis Moss 10.1
4. LaMarr Woodley 10.0
5. Dan Bazuin 10.0

Tier 3
6. Quentin Moses 9.8
--------------------------------------------------------------

 

[theogt]

Maso,

Here's my rankings:

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=86121

 

[Vegas_Cowboy]

thats what i have been saying about spencer... no speed!]


Not sure where some of you are getting this "no speed" thing from. Everything I've read or heard about him states the total opposite.


Defensive End | Senior | Purdue
Anthony Spencer
Strengths:
An excellent athlete with great speed...Playmaker who is very active with a great motor and always around the action...Versatile and has experience dropping into coverage...Natural pass rusher with a knack for getting after the quarterback and making plays in the backfield...Extremely productive...A good technician who plays with solid leverage...Relatively stout against the run for his size...Experienced and battle tested...Good range with a burst to close fast...Very instinctive and smart


Positives:
Has a developing frame with good upper-body muscle tone, tight waist and hips, good bubble, thick arms and room to add at least another 10 pounds of bulk with no loss in quickness … Has outstanding straight-line quickness, moving with an explosive burst coming off the edge … Has the quick change-of-direction agility to work down the line and his speed and range dropping back in pass coverage could see him develop into a 3-4 outside linebacker...

Contributes on the move and has the speed needed to chase long distances and make plays along the perimeter … Relentless in his straight-ahead charge to the ball … Has that rare speed to catch plays from behind …

Negatives: Plays with good functional strength, but relies on his speed too much …


POSITIVES: Outstanding athlete who took his game to another level last year. Quick off the snap, fast off the edge and shows a burst of speed in every direction.



POSTIVES: Spencer is a fierce, fierce competitor who compares favorably to ex-Boilermakers defensive ends Rosevelt Colvin, Shaun Phillips and Akin Ayodele, all of whom are now 3-4 LBs in the pros. Already bigger than those three, Spencer possesses a bench press close to 500 pounds (while repping 30 times at 225 at the combine) and squats 650 pounds, which should give him the requisite strength to play the edge as a 3-4 OLB. And further proof lies in the fact that held up well against massive projected first-round left tackles Joe Thomas and Levi Brown in the Big Ten, recording a combined 3.5 tackles for losses against those two. But the trait Spencer is known best for is his explosion off the edge, triggered by a devastating first step. At the combine, he ran a 4.70 40-yard dash and complemented it with a 4.69 at his Pro Day, numbers that don’t quite illustrate how quick he is on the field.


I know that last one didn't have much to do with speed but threw it in anyways because I like it.

Projected top 5 pick Joe Thomas said Spencer was the best DE he faced in college.

Projected top 10 pick Levi Brown had this to say. “Without question he has a lot of speed and power,” Brown said. “He’s the best defensive end in this draft.


The negatives that pop up most on Spencer is that he sometimes gets swallowed up in traffic,doesn't have a lot of experience dropping back in coverage and needs to develop more pass rushing moves rather than just relying on his speed.

Speed is not something he lacks.

 

[masomenos]

Maso,

Here's my rankings:

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=86121

I'm really impressed with your formula. While we have a number of very similar projections yours seems to be more accurate when looking at past prospects. Well done sir, well done.