Rating the 3-4 Prospects

[marchetta]

Brian Robison DE/LB Texas​

STRENGTHS
Brian is a good solid DE with great athleticism and work ethic. He is a player that, in my opinion, is playing out of position. I waited until after the combine to confirm my suspicions. If I profiled Brian as a DE, then I would have to say that he is an average DE for the college level. He is solid with good size and strength and has enough speed to tackle players from behind; he does a decent job carrying out his assignments and playing within the structure of the defensive game plan. The truth is, if you draft him and change him over to an OLB in a 3-4 defense, I believe that you will unleash his athleticism and the potential he has to be a top OLB for the team that drafts him.

NEEDS TO IMPROVE
Is Brian a tweener because he doesn’t want to play the OLB position or is he a player that got stuck at a position because early in his career he showed some talent to be a very good DE? If Brian is willing to switch positions and shows the intelligence to switch positions, then he could be a sleeper OLB and one of the better ones to come out in this draft.

TALENT BOARD ROUND: 4
I thought this kid had a lot of athletic talent so I waited until after the combine to see if I was correct. Brian’s measurements and times are right up there with the better LB’s in this class. That tells me that Brian is not playing up to his athletic potential and what I see on film tells me it’s not because the kid is lazy or full of himself. Brian is playing out of position and needs some good coaching. As long as he is willing to change positions and continue to work hard, I think that Brian will have a good career at the next level. He reminds me a little of Brian Simmons (LB Cincinnati Bengals. Brian Simmons has not developed into the impact OLB that most people thought he would become, but he is not playing in a defense that really takes full advantage of his true talents. If a team with smart coaches drafts Brian and use him in a 3-4 defense, in a few years I think they are going to have themselves a hell of a player and a player that will most likely stay with the team that drafts him after his first contract is up. How do I know this you ask? Because I’m me and that’s what I do -- I just say things and then hope that I’m right about them. Just like the other “experts” do.

- Drew Boylhart (thehuddlereport.com)

 

[theogt]

Shaun Phillips times were 4.27 and 6.95, markedly better than Spencers.

That's marginally better times. Beyond that, Spencer is much higher rated coming out of college than Phillips. He's just a better prospect.

There is only one time available for Adalius Thomas so that's incomplete and Will Smith doesn't play in a 34 as an OLB and doesn't drop into coverage nearly as much so it doesn't really matter what his times were.

Thomas's Shuttle time was 4.42. I wasn't comparing Smith's ability to play 3-4 OLB in coverage. I was simply comparing his athleticism stats to Spencer's, and Spencer does compare favorably.

I didn't just choose the best times, I just chose the times from recently selected 34 OLBs. Spencer's times rank below the times of other recently selected OLBs, that should be cause for some concern.

You just happened to choose a group of guys that put up some of the best numbers in the history of the draft for guys their size. Intentionally or not, to say he's not a "freak" isn't exactly a bad thing. If he put up Lawson-type Combine numbers, with his size, strength, and college production, he'd be a top 10 pick.

Two of the quotes you cited don't even talk about coverage ability. They talk about agility and COD skills, sure, but there's a difference in forward moving agility and how quick a player can turn their hips and go from a backpedal facing the QB to a running form facing away from the QB.

Huh? They talk about his agility and COD skills. That's what we're talking about in terms of his coverage ability. He's not Urlacher in coverage, but he doesn't have to be. He's more than adequate and his potential coverage ability is more of an asset than a liability.

Here's another quote from Scouts Inc, "While some consider him a 'tweener defensive end/outside linebacker, we're not convinced he's athletic enough to play linebacker in the NFL." While I don't think it's nearly that big of an issue I certainly do think it's somewhere between the two extremes. I mean if Greg Ellis was able to handle coverage duties marginally well then there's no doubt in my mind that a more athletic Spencer would be able to do better. There are some reservations though.

That's the bottom line. Scout's Inc. is about the worst source you can find on the Draft. They've got Jeremy Green working for them for crying out loud. Most of their comments are that Spencer doesn't have "great" COD skills. Well, he doesn't have "great" COD skills, but obviously he has pretty darn good ones.

That a 7.14 Cone Drill could possibly be seen as a negative is beyond me. Who's he going to be covering? Guy's like Greg Olsen (7.09), Ben Patrick (7.21), Sydney Rice (7.09), Marcedes Lews (7.24), or a Leonard Pope (7.48), or how about one of the most athletic TEs in the game, Vernon Davis (7.00)?

 

[theogt]

You're right lol, it's not the best way, but it is the easiest way. Again, it's Kirwan's formula, not mine, but I would imagine that his thinking is that you wouldn't want a player who did 45 bench reps but only a 20inch vert and an 8 inch broad jump because it's not a true indicator of the "explosion" ability of the player. So by eliminating players who are far below the average you're still able to get fairly reliable results.

With that said, I'm all for coming up with our own explosion rating that's more in line with what you're talking about.

Here's the overall formula I use for physical attributes.

= ((Height - 70) / 2) + ((Weight - 200 / 20)) + ((9 - (40Time + 20Time)) * 3) + (12 * (2 - 10Time)) + (BenchPress / 8) + (VertJump / 4) + ((BroadJump - 100) / 7) + ((15 - (Shuttle + Cone) * 2)

If you just look at the #s that Kirwan looks at it would look like this:

= (BenchPress / 8) + (VertJump / 4) + ((BroadJump - 100) / 7)

I don't have the time now, or I'd run the numbers and show the difference between Kirwan's formula and mine.

By the way, I convern Broad Jump to inches, which is why I subtract 100. It's better to work in all inches rather than some feet and some inches, though I suppose the difference would be significantly reduced when make the adjustment for variance.

 

[theogt]

The number in parentheses comes, as I understand it, comes from subracting the short shuttle from the 40 yard dash time. Kirwan figures your short shuttle should be about .5 seconds faster than your shuttle.

The problem as I see it is if you run a phenomenal 40 yard dash time, like say Willis, it's tougher to be that much faster in the shuttle. I can see how it might be relevant say for someone who doesn't have much track speed, for instance I would bet the numbers for someone like Dat Nguyen would be quite good, however for someone with great speed, expecting an improvement of .5 seconds seems unrealistic.

For a mind-numbing discussion of the errors of Kirwan's "explosiveness" formula see here:

http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=84992

 

[Tristan]

With all these various "draft Gurus" out there it's hard to know who to trust, Spencer is one guy that I've read mostly conflicting reports on, it's like he's to different guys depending on who's talking. Although they all seem to agree on his pass rush ability and tenacity.

I really have trouble trusting most of the write up's, they certainly are helpfull, but I tend to stay away from commenting on guys that I haven't actually watched.

I still have a copy of Lindy's pre draft magazine from 1988, over the years I got a good laugh looking back at their report on Irvin, which incuded "won't go across the middle for a $100 bill"

 

[masomenos]

That's marginally better times. Beyond that, Spencer is much higher rated coming out of college than Phillips. He's just a better prospect.

Thomas's Shuttle time was 4.42. I wasn't comparing Smith's ability to play 3-4 OLB in coverage. I was simply comparing his athleticism stats to Spencer's, and Spencer does compare favorably.

You just happened to choose a group of guys that put up some of the best numbers in the history of the draft for guys their size. Intentionally or not, to say he's not a "freak" isn't exactly a bad thing. If he put up Lawson-type Combine numbers, with his size, strength, and college production, he'd be a top 10 pick.

Huh? They talk about his agility and COD skills. That's what we're talking about in terms of his coverage ability. He's not Urlacher in coverage, but he doesn't have to be. He's more than adequate and his potential coverage ability is more of an asset than a liability.

That's the bottom line. Scout's Inc. is about the worst source you can find on the Draft. They've got Jeremy Green working for them for crying out loud. Most of their comments are that Spencer doesn't have "great" COD skills. Well, he doesn't have "great" COD skills, but obviously he has pretty darn good ones.

That a 7.14 Cone Drill could possibly be seen as a negative is beyond me. Who's he going to be covering? Guy's like Greg Olsen (7.09), Ben Patrick (7.21), Sydney Rice (7.09), Marcedes Lews (7.24), or a Leonard Pope (7.48), or how about one of the most athletic TEs in the game, Vernon Davis (7.00)?

The combined score for Spencer is 11.57, for Phillips it was 11.22, that's more than a 3/10ths of a point difference. It may not seem like a lot but the total range isn't that big so even a tenth of a point makes a difference. And that's why we can't use Thomas' time, because we can't come up with a combined score. And still with Will Smith you're comparing different positions, if we were projecting Spencer as a DE then comparing their athleticism would be fair game. Use Joey Porter as a 3-4 OLB with bad times, that's a better example.

And as far as the other players having "freak" times, how can they be that abnormal if that was a sample of the most recent 3-4 OLBs taken in the first round? Did I miss any players that I should have included? These times seem to be the norm for the 34 OLBs coming out now and I know that Bobby Carpenter certainly isn't seen as a freak. I understand it's a limited sammple and doesn't take into account players times from years past but it is an accurate representation of the other people who are being chosen early at that position.

Agility and COD skills laterally, in a shuffle, are different than agility and COD skills working out of a back pedal. That's what I meant. Something like that can show up on film (either game or combine drills) but we don't get specific times for the position drills. All you can do is look at the raw times and say, that's a little below average for what's been drafted here over the past few years, it looks like his hips are more stiff (based on the times) and therefor there's more concern about his coverage abilities than there was with other players.

As far as the merits of Scouts Inc, we'll save that for another time.

It's not just Spencer's cone time that causes me to have some concerns, it's the combined times. But they aren't big enough concerns that I wouldn't draft him. Like I said I don't think he'd be terrific value at 22, but if Dallas were to take him there then I wouldn't say a negative peep about it. He's certainly a player who has much more upside than downside, but like all prospects he does have some down side and his is that he's a little more stiff than you would like. Just a little lol.

 

[masomenos]

Here's the overall formula I use for physical attributes.

= ((Height - 70) / 2) + ((Weight - 200 / 20)) + ((9 - (40Time + 20Time)) * 3) + (12 * (2 - 10Time)) + (BenchPress / 8) + (VertJump / 4) + ((BroadJump - 100) / 7) + ((15 - (Shuttle + Cone) * 2)

If you just look at the #s that Kirwan looks at it would look like this:

= (BenchPress / 8) + (VertJump / 4) + ((BroadJump - 100) / 7)

I don't have the time now, or I'd run the numbers and show the difference between Kirwan's formula and mine.

By the way, I convern Broad Jump to inches, which is why I subtract 100. It's better to work in all inches rather than some feet and some inches, though I suppose the difference would be significantly reduced when make the adjustment for variance.

ahh good ole' formulas

 

[marchetta]

Tank Tyler DT North Carolina St​

STRENGTHS
Tank Tyler is an extremely athletic DT. He just might be the quickest DT in this draft off the snap. He is quick and has a variety of moves to shoot the gap and get into the backfield. Tank has good size for his position to go along with his athletic talent. He is a load to handle and can easily handle a double team. Tank has the athletic talent to play in any kind of defensive front or any kind of defensive system. He reminds me of Sam Adams (DT Cincinnati Bengals).

NEEDS TO IMPROVE
The question is, “Is this kid coachable?” He seems to do just what he wants to do when he wants to do it on the field. He is not a team player and I don’t think he will ever understand the big picture. He is very talented and if someone can harness that talent and make him understand that he’s wasting it, then they just might get themselves a hell of a DT. It’s a long shot. Remember, it takes more than talent to play at the next level. Character, maturity, mental strength and work ethic have to go hand in hand with talent.

TALENT BOARD ROUND: 5
Tank has first round talent, but I’m not sure what round maturity is attached to. He is a boom or bust player with a big kaboooom waiting to happen. Like I said, he reminds me a lot of Sam Adams. Sam, to this day, is an extremely un-coachable player. He wants to play the way he wants to play and the hell with everyone else. He can dominate a game when he wants to, but he will not be a worker bee. He will not just take up space so others can get the credit. DeMarcus seems to be the same way. To me, it does not matter if DeMarcus has first round athletic talent. What matters is that he has the whole package -– talent, character, maturity, mental stamina and coachability? So what if he has first round talent?! You must realize by now that if a player does not have these other attributes, he will fail. Why would I pay first day money to a kid I know for a fact has a high probability of failure? The only reason would be is because I’m spending someone else’s money! Let me tell you this: if I owned a team and one of my employees (GM, coaches or scouts) suggested that we should draft this kid any time in the first day of the draft - I would fire that guy right on the spot. Talent should not be the prevailing reason to draft a player. If it is, then your franchise will fail. Do not spend first day money on a player with poor character issues and then expect a return on your investment. It’s as big a gamble as if you were playing a slot machine. The return is just enough to keep you playing those fancy looking slot machines and losing.

- Drew Boylhart (thehuddlereport.com)

 

[TEK2000]

Some of you guys need to stop looking at all the timed stuff and start looking at his college stats.

Anthony Spencer had a high # of tackles for loss as well as sacks.
In 47 games (36 starts) Spencer registered 44 tackles for loss, 21 sacks and 11 forced fumbles.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/spencer_anthony

What does this mean? It means he is able to beat whoever is blocking him to make plays in the backfield and disrupt the offense.

What were we missing last season? A player that can beat the OT and make plays in the backfield and disrupt the offense. We need someone opposite Ware that can beat the OT, collapse the pocket around the QB, and sack the QB.

At this point, we know that Greg Ellis will not be 100% back to his old self. We need a guy opposite Ware that can really bring pressure consistently as well as getting a strong push from our DE's/DT unlike what we had last season.

Then again... Robison has very similar stats as Spencer. I didn't realize Robison was listed as 266... he's much bigger than I thought he was from watching him play.
Robison might be quite a good value if he develops into a good pass rushing 3-4OLB.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I didn't realize Robison was listed as 266... he's much bigger than I thought he was from watching him play.

he actually weighed in at 259 at the Combine, I think Robison in the 3rd/4th would be much better value than Spencer at 22, or any pick in the 1st, he just doesn't have that wow factor I'm looking for, although I would be fine w/ the pick

 

[masomenos]

Some of you guys need to stop looking at all the timed stuff and start looking at his college stats.

Anthony Spencer had a high # of tackles for loss as well as sacks.
In 47 games (36 starts) Spencer registered 44 tackles for loss, 21 sacks and 11 forced fumbles.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/spencer_anthony

What does this mean? It means he is able to beat whoever is blocking him to make plays in the backfield and disrupt the offense.

What were we missing last season? A player that can beat the OT and make plays in the backfield and disrupt the offense. We need someone opposite Ware that can beat the OT, collapse the pocket around the QB, and sack the QB.

At this point, we know that Greg Ellis will not be 100% back to his old self. We need a guy opposite Ware that can really bring pressure consistently as well as getting a strong push from our DE's/DT unlike what we had last season.

Then again... Robison has very similar stats as Spencer. I didn't realize Robison was listed as 266... he's much bigger than I thought he was from watching him play.
Robison might be quite a good value if he develops into a good pass rushing 3-4OLB.

I don't think there has been a single post in this thread doubting Spencer's pass rush ability.

 

[masomenos]

Wow, I don't think I've heard about Tylers character issues until now, that's a big turn off.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

thats what i have been saying about spencer... no speed! when he is not rated as fast as NT prospects you have problems. no way this guy should be our pick at 22. if we trade back into round 2 i have less of a problem with it.

Well all the analysis I've read so far says Spencer has good speed and power for guy his size so which is it really...

 

[Teague31]

Some of you guys need to stop looking at all the timed stuff and start looking at his college stats.

Anthony Spencer had a high # of tackles for loss as well as sacks.
In 47 games (36 starts) Spencer registered 44 tackles for loss, 21 sacks and 11 forced fumbles.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/profiles/2007/spencer_anthony

What does this mean? It means he is able to beat whoever is blocking him to make plays in the backfield and disrupt the offense.

What were we missing last season? A player that can beat the OT and make plays in the backfield and disrupt the offense. We need someone opposite Ware that can beat the OT, collapse the pocket around the QB, and sack the QB.

Shante Carver had a lot of sacks in college as well... how did he turn out?

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

Instant impact players is what Dallas should go after and Spencer will be able to make plays in the backfield!

 

[jobberone]

Spencer is an ok pick at 22. That's a slight reach right now. Reaches won't matter if he does well and are magnified if he doesn't. What truly matters is getting at least one starter from your first two picks. A good starter. Spencer is not that risky IMO....stiff hips or not (I say they're in between...he can't do the Twist but he does Waltz).

I think Dallas needs to ask itself does it really need to spend a first on another LB. Well yeah if Ellis et al fail. And duh no if Carp, Burnett, and Ellis come thru. I like those chances with Carp and Ellis a lot better than everyone besides TNew coming thru.

I would choose a DB first pick then try to pick up someone like Robison, Moses, Crowder et al later in the draft to increase our probabilities of getting a good pass rush opposite Ware. That just seems to be the most efficient way. In fact take two DEs that projects to OLB.

Besides aren't we supposed to have a great pass rush from just changing our schemes. We've gotten rid of the conservative don't lose games Parcells and that dirty rotten low down couldn't coach peewees looks like a peewee Zimmer. Heck we shouldn't even need a draft since we have all our bases covered.

 

[BouncingCheese]

Willis is going to be a bonafide player in this league, I was hoping no one was going to notice him as much as they are now, he can cover, play the run, and rush, all really well...I want Spencer if were to draft a defenseive pass-rusher. Another thing is, look at Jarvis Moss, this drafts "Kevon Kearse". Yeah, he only scored a 56... I don't even know why people are all over him, his sacks were when he wasn't being blocked.

By the way, Kirwan's formula is extremely flawed. He adds the raw numbers together and that's not very helpful. You have to adjust each variable such that they have equal variance. Otherwise the results are crazy.

Example:

Player A has a 40" Vertical, a 8' Broad Jump, and 30 Bench Press Reps.
Total Score: 78

Player B has a 40" Vertical, a 10' Broad Jump, and 27 Bench Press Reps.
Total Score: 77

Who has the better stats? Player has the higher total score, but clearly Player B has the better overall stats. The problem is that each variable isn't adjusted to reduce variance to equal measures.

Kirwan also says that the numbers in parenthesis denote quickness, or lack of it, quick bieng anything higher than.5. His formula may not be perfect, but I think it helps to demostrate a players athletic ability.

 

[BouncingCheese]

Spencer is an ok pick at 22. That's a slight reach right now. Reaches won't matter if he does well and are magnified if he doesn't. What truly matters is getting at least one starter from your first two picks. A good starter. Spencer is not that risky IMO....stiff hips or not (I say they're in between...he can't do the Twist but he does Waltz).

Spencer is definitely a reach at 22, but he will be gone by Baltimore's pick/Patriots' pick. Baltimore wants to replace Adalius Thomas, the Patriots want to replace Rosevelt Colvin or Vrabel...They will get him if he is availible, remember, the Pats reached to get Logan Mankins, a second-round talent, and he is a pro bowler now. If we stay at 22, and skip Spencer, we won't have another chance to get him.

 

[masomenos]

Spencer is an ok pick at 22. That's a slight reach right now. Reaches won't matter if he does well and are magnified if he doesn't. What truly matters is getting at least one starter from your first two picks. A good starter. Spencer is not that risky IMO....stiff hips or not (I say they're in between...he can't do the Twist but he does Waltz).

I think Dallas needs to ask itself does it really need to spend a first on another LB. Well yeah if Ellis et al fail. And duh no if Carp, Burnett, and Ellis come thru. I like those chances with Carp and Ellis a lot better than everyone besides TNew coming thru.

I would choose a DB first pick then try to pick up someone like Robison, Moses, Crowder et al later in the draft to increase our probabilities of getting a good pass rush opposite Ware. That just seems to be the most efficient way. In fact take two DEs that projects to OLB.

Besides aren't we supposed to have a great pass rush from just changing our schemes. We've gotten rid of the conservative don't lose games Parcells and that dirty rotten low down couldn't coach peewees looks like a peewee Zimmer. Heck we shouldn't even need a draft since we have all our bases covered.

This twist? The waltz?! Sounds like someone watched too much Dancing With the Stars when Emmitt was on there. :
Really though, I think you're right that we can find another quality 34 OLB later on with a guy like Stewart Bradley, Lemarr Woodley or even Brian Robison.

As far as CBs...I just don't think we'll have a guy worth taking at #22 unless Revis or Fall fall. I'm fine with a CB with our first pick but going after a guy like Ross without trading back just wouldn't be good value.

 

[TEK2000]

Shante Carver had a lot of sacks in college as well... how did he turn out?

Alright... lets draft anyone that doesn't have a good # of sacks in college because 1 guy didn't do well in the NFL and he had a lot of sacks in college.