Romo with more 4th quarter comebacks than Aikman and Staubach?

[BIGDen]

It's because Romo is a choker and can't lead his team back to victory in a pressure situation. Or something like that...

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

The game is so much different now. It's very hard to compare stats from say Roger's day to Tony's now. As some have already pointed out, the Dallas teams of those eras were better so you probably didn't have as many come back opportunities.

Something else you would have to consider is the offensive game of today. It's really pretty easy to move the ball now. In Roger's day and even Troy's, it was harder to move the ball. It's easier to get into position to kick a field goal now then it was then IMO.

The game has just changed way too much to look at these kinds of stats and come to a conclusion that proves one is better then the other.

I think you have to do the eye test and just ask yourself, if I were down by 7 with 2 minutes to go, who would I want at QB? If I were down by 21 at half in a championship game, who would I want coming out in the 2nd half to win it for me?

That's probably the best way to figure out who is the better choice IMO.

 

[percyhoward]

I think you have to do the eye test and just ask yourself, if I were down by 7 with 2 minutes to go, who would I want at QB?

Those things are kept track of, so you really don't even need the eye test. The best QB in these situations are Rodgers, Romo, and Eli. They are better in these situations than they are the rest of the time, in fact.

Guys like Peyton, Brees, Flacco, and Schaub are a little worse than usual. Roethlisberger and Brady clearly don't perform as well late in close games, and Rivers is horrible.

 

[Gameover]

Tony is slow starter. He usually doesn't start clicking until the third quarter.

The Cowboys often are behind early in games because of Tony's slow starts.

Cowboys first half scoring average the past 5 seasons?

I

 

[Alexander]

It helps to look at things this way:

Romo - 18 fourth quarter comebacks, 19 game-winning drives
Peyton Manning – 38 fourth quarter comebacks, 49 game-winning drives
Brady - 26 fourth quarter comebacks, 37 game-winning drives
Brees - 20 fourth quarter comebacks, 31 game-winning drives
Roethlisberger - 22 fourth quarter comebacks, 29 game-winning drives
Eli Manning - 24 fourth quarter comebacks, 28 game-winning drives
Rivers – 13 fourth quarter comebacks, 16 game-winning drives
Flacco - 10 fourth quarter comebacks, 15 game-winning drives
Schaub - 9 fourth quarter comebacks, 12 game-winning drives
Rodgers – 5 fourth quarter comebacks, 9 game-winning drives

Just for reference, after one year here are the GW drives for the rookies: Griffin (3), Luck (7), Kaepernick (2), Wilson (5)

Historical:
Marino - 36 fourth quarter comebacks, 51 game-winning drives
Favre – 30 fourth quarter comebacks, 46 game-winning drives
Elway - 35 fourth quarter comebacks, 46 game-winning drives
Favre – 30 fourth quarter comebacks, 45 game-winning drives
Montana – 31 fourth quarter comebacks, 33 game-winning drives
Staubach – 15 fourth quarter comebacks, 23 game-winning drives
Aikman - 16 fourth quarter comebacks, 21 game-winning drives
Steve Young – 14 fourth quarter comebacks, 17 game-winning drives
Danny White – 12 fourth quarter comebacks, 16 game-winning drives

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_career.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm
To put it in perspective, Romo shares spots with the likes of Neil O’Donnell and Trent Green in terms of career game winning drives and Jon Kitna in terms of comebacks.

 

[Alexander]

Forgot Ryan - 16 fourth quarter comebacks, 28 game-winning drives

 

[Gameover]

the cowboys first half scoring avg in 2012 was 7.75...

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Those things are kept track of, so you really don't even need the eye test. The best QB in these situations are Rodgers, Romo, and Eli. They are better in these situations than they are the rest of the time, in fact.

Guys like Peyton, Brees, Flacco, and Schaub are a little worse than usual. Roethlisberger and Brady clearly don't perform as well late in close games, and Rivers is horrible.

When you say, "Those things are kept track of", what do you mean by that?

 

[percyhoward]

When you say, "Those things are kept track of", what do you mean by that?

A career record of passing performance in the 4th quarter of games when the margin is one score or less.

Rodgers 107.9
Romo 99.9
EManning 94.2
PManning 92.6
Brees 91.6
Schaub 89.3
Brady 84.7
Roethlisberger 84.1
Ryan 83.5
Flacco 82.7
Rivers 72.0

 

[FiveRings]

Not to be a Debbie downer but this is a situation where the 4th quarter chokes are weighed much heavier than the successful comebacks.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

A career record of passing performance in the 4th quarter of games when the margin is one score or less.

Rodgers 107.9
Romo 99.9
EManning 94.2
PManning 92.6
Brees 91.6
Schaub 89.3
Brady 84.7
Roethlisberger 84.1
Ryan 83.5
Flacco 82.7
Rivers 72.0

How would that factor into the game changing? Specifically, changing to favor offense over defense? How would that factor into an offense where a team scores early and gains a lead and then pounds you with the running game in the fourth to secure a win.

I don't see the connection there.

 

[percyhoward]

Not to be a Debbie downer but this is a situation where the 4th quarter chokes are weighed much heavier than the successful comebacks.

Yes, you have to look at all the performances when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter. Not just the wins.

 

[Alexander]

Not to be a Debbie downer but this is a situation where the 4th quarter chokes are weighed much heavier than the successful comebacks.

Old article, but interesting - http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tony-romo-choke-artist-or-not/8831/

 

[percyhoward]

How would that factor into the game changing? Specifically, changing to favor offense over defense? How would that factor into an offense where a team scores early and gains a lead and then pounds you with the running game in the fourth to secure a win.

I don't see the connection there.

Unless I don't understand your questions, the run shouldn't have a lot to do with it. Very few teams go into run mode when the game is close in the 4th. Rodgers', Romo's, and Eli's teams especially.

 

[Rockport]

Unless I don't understand your questions, the run shouldn't have a lot to do with it. Very few teams go into run mode when the game is close in the 4th. Rodgers', Romo's, and Eli's teams especially.

Especially when your running game is ranked 31st in the NFL.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Unless I don't understand your questions, the run shouldn't have a lot to do with it. Very few teams go into run mode when the game is close in the 4th. Rodgers', Romo's, and Eli's teams especially.

Well, in the case of Troy's teams, it has a great deal to do with it. Troy's teams would get ahead early and then never give up the lead. They would just run the ball down your throat the entire 4th quarter so the criteria this entire premise is based upon would only hurt Troy's numbers. This, to me, does not prove that Romo is better.

In the case of Roger, the game is not even the same. I.E., it was much harder to move the ball in that era of football so of course, the numbers are going to be skewed towards modern day QBs. In today's NFL, it's much, much easier to move the football and get your team in a position to win. Does that mean that Romo is better? I watched them both play and I would not say that about Romo.

You can't compare these QBs using this kind of measuring stick because the game has changed too much.

I think you have to go with what you've actually seen because this will never prove one QBs abilities over the other. The baselines are not the same.

 

[percyhoward]

You can't compare these QBs using this kind of measuring stick because the game has changed too much.

I see what you're saying now. I wasn't talking about cross-era comparisons.

 

[FiveRings]

Yes, you have to look at all the performances when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter. Not just the wins.

I agree, but I was thinking that these numbers are still sort of skewed. Take for example, a game like Buffalo in '07 vs. a game like the opener against the Jets in '11. In Buffalo, Romo came out out with a successful comeback victory, but at the same time ended up throwing five pics and having an absolute stinker of a game. Then, against the Jets in 2011, Romo had himself a very good game, but the comeback still fell short. But still, we praise Romo for Buffalo, but when he comes up short, we ridicule him.

 

[percyhoward]

I agree, but I was thinking that these numbers are still sort of skewed.

They can be misleading to a degree. That's why it's important to compare the late-and-close numbers with the whole-game numbers for each QB. Rodgers, Romo, and Eli have all performed well late in close games, but Eli's whole-game rating (82.7) tells you he's average up until that point in the game.

Individual games that contradict the overall numbers can always be found, but the whole-game ratings tell you which QB have generally played well enough not to be the main cause of the 4th-quarter deficits they face.

 

[Reality]

There is a Rant Zone forum .. keep that out of the Fan Zone or you will lose access to this forum.

/reality