UPDATE: LEINART TO SLIDE ON DRAFT DAY?
POSTED 12:21 p.m. EST; LAST UPDATED 1:16 p.m. EST, January 29, 2006
The whispers are starting to be heard on the information superhighway that is the NFL rumor mill.
Will USC quarterback Matt Leinart be this year's Aaron Rodgers?
In 2005, Rodgers was the latest over-hyped product of Cal quarterback guru Jeff Tedford. In February, many had Rodgers pegged possibly to go as high as the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. But the 49ers ultimately opted for Utah's Alex Smith in the one hole, leaving Rodgers on the board.
After the Dolphins and Browns passed on Rodgers at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, the pecking order moved to a cluster of teams with no clear needs at the quarterback position.
Bears? Nope. Bucs? Ditto. Titans? No.
And so on, through the Vikings, Cardinals, Commanders, Lions, Cowboys, Chargers. Saints, Panthers, Chiefs, Texans, Bengals, Vikings, Rams.
Cowboys, Jaguars, Ravens, Raiders.
Then came the Packers at No. 24. Despite immediate needs at plenty of positions other than quarterback, new G.M. Ted Thompson opted for insurance against the looming retirement of Lord Favre, who had waffled about returning in 2005 but who now might be back for 2006.
This time around, the early talk is that Leinart could end up doing the round one slip 'n' slide. And league insiders are pointing to several pieces of evidence that could, in the end, cause the 2004 Heisman Trophy winner to get the 2006 booby prize after finding himself getting a contract worth far less than the $50 million or so that he would have seen if he'd left USC when his stock was at its zenith.
First, the fact that Leinart didn't take on the challenge of the NFL after winning the ultimate team and individual honors in college makes some folks wonder whether he's got the raw desire to face the challenge of football at its highest possible level. It's not as if he was only three years removed from high school after the 2004 season; he'd put in four full years of college and only took some bullpoopie ballroom dancing class last semester. But he wanted to stick around for another year where things were easy, familiar, comfortable.
Second, the burgeoning mess involving his agents, Leigh Steinberg and Chuck Price, and the various other hangers-on has some league insiders questioning Leinart's overall wisdom and judgment. This guy will be expected to lead men on an NFL gridiron; meanwhile, he's being led around by folks who already are at odds (as we reported on Saturday) as to the question of whether Leinart would make a cameo appearance at the Senior Bowl. The thinking is that Steinberg was added to the representation team because he brings a certain degree of credibility, but that Leinart and Price ultimately will nudge Steinberg into the background -- or out of the picture altogether. Leinart's decision to place so much of his career in Price's hands suggests that Matt simply doesn't get it.
Third, word is that Steinberg and Price plan to parade Leinart around at the Super Bowl this week. Good for Leigh (who's still trying to recover from that ugly split with David Dunn) and good for Price (a virtual unknown who's trying to parlay his relationship with Leinart into a career as a big-shot agent).
But bad for Leinart, who should be working out hard right now, not peacocking his way through Motown.
As one league insider told us on Saturday, Leinart's main weakness is the T-shirt and shorts stuff into which scouts put so much focus this time of year. With speed and arm strength as his liabilities, he should be doing everything his can to improve his numbers, not hobnobbing.
Fourth, Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler is rocketing up the board. And Cutler is regarded as having the ideal temperament and heart for pro football. Cutler made his mark on a college team without a collection of first-day draft picks on both sides of the ball. Cutler eschewed offers to play safety at other schools because he knew he could be a successful quarterback.
As a result, Cutler is catching the attention of the guys who are amassing notebooks and laptops full of data that will be used in late April to decide who gets picked and when. As ESPN's Chris Mortensen explained this week, Cutler might be the best quarterback prospect in the draft. And the thinking in league circles is that Mort isn't merely throwing a bone to Cutler and agent Bus Cook; on this one, Mort's got his fist around the league's carotid artery. Cutler is a brand new Ferrari on the fast track, and he very well could get picked before Leinart or Vince Young of Texas.
Fifth, Cutler's participation in the Senior Bowl has earned him bonus points. Although Leinart's decision to stay away can be attributed to the perception that he has nothing to prove, former No. 1 overall picks such as Carson Palmer and David Carr made the trip to Mobile.
Bottom line -- Leinart should have played in the game.
Sixth, there's a real concern that Leinart won't be happy in a city other than Los Angeles, where he's become one of the biggest fish in an already huge pond. So what'll he do in a smaller town where he's just getting started -- and where his team doesn't have the overall firepower to propel him to immediate local superstardom?
Seventh, no one knows whether Leinart has the ability to keep his focus on a team that isn't winning every week, since he's never had to continue to forge ahead after losing game upon game. He came off as a somewhat of a spoiled 11-year-old during his on-field comments after losing the Rose Bowl; what kind of sound bites will he produce when his pro team is 1-8?
The biggest unknown for any incoming NFL player is the size and content of his heart. And the issue isn't resolved until the guy is out there banging hats with established NFL competition. Leinart has risen to the occasion in the past while in college, but there's just enough evidence to make scouts wonder whether Leinart will be able to make the adjustment from one of the best college programs in football history to a struggling NFL franchise without the supporting cast and coaching staff to allow him perform above his talent level.
So if the Saints take Cutler at No. 2 and the Titans take Young at No. 3, where will Leinart land?
Much of it depends on what teams with needs at the position can do during the first several weeks of free agency. Assuming the Jets, Raiders, Lions, and Cardinals are comfortable with their situations at quarterback by late April, Leinart might slide to the Dolphins at No. 16. And if Miami passes on Leinart, the kid could end up being on the board even longer than Rodgers was.
The Lions could be the best bet for Leinart, given new coach Rod Marinelli's ties to USC and his ability to motivate. Plus, there's plenty of other talent on offense.
Even if he goes at No. 2, Leinart will lose plenty of money over what he would have earned a year ago. If he ends up at No. 4 or lower, the financial difference could end up being staggering.
It's all the more reason, in our view, for Leinart to wake up, make good decisions, and get his butt into the gym and onto the track from now through draft day.