Running game is why the defense looks better

[DogFace]

Damn. G money, Outlaw , and Adam shut this down. With well interpreted stats and facts. Wow. That was an old fashion butt whipping.

Must be embarrassing for some.

 

[percyhoward]

Very nice. If anything, this overstates the offense's contribution to PPG improvement since it credits all of the TOP advantage to the offense. As you, among others, have previously indicated, that TOP advantage is partly attributable to the D's own ability to get itself off the field.

It doesn't credit all the TOP advantage to the offense, it just factors in their move up from 15th to 1st. The defense has moved up from 21st to 6th, but that wouldn't give them fewer drives to face per game. All else being equal, it would do the opposite.

 

[Brooksey]

Last year, our offense ranked 15th in TOP, and our defense faced 11.5 drives per game, giving up an average of 2.31 points on each drive, for 26.6 points per game.

This year, we have the #1 offense in TOP, and our defense has faced an average of only 10.4 drives per game, giving up 1.73 points on each drive.

To find out how this year's defense would be doing with last year's offense, multiply last year's 11.5 drives faced by this year's 1.73 points allowed per drive. It comes out to 19.9 points per game.

Even if our offense ranked 15th in TOP like it did last year, this year's defense would still be giving up almost a touchdown less per game than last year's.

This year, with more than a full drive less per game, our opponents are actually scoring 18.0 points per game, compared to 26.6 last year. Our offense's league-leading TOP is taking 1.9 points per game away from the opponent. Our defense is taking away the other 6.7.

You can't do that Percy. This make no sense.

One of the reasons were giving up less points, is because we are seeing less drives, less plays etc. We are fresher.

You can't say even if we see more drives per game (11.5) like we did last year, that we could play as fresh and only give up this years 1.73 per drive.

Think fresh.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

It doesn't credit all the TOP advantage to the offense, it just factors in their move up from 15th to 1st. The defense has moved up from 21st to 6th, but that wouldn't give them fewer drives to face per game. All else being equal, it would do the opposite.

Thanks. Hadn't realized you were using drive numbers to get your TOP rankings, such that you could segregate the O's rank from the D's.

Even a more compelling post then.

 

[percyhoward]

You can't do that Percy. This make no sense.

One of the reasons were giving up less points, is because we are seeing less drives, less plays etc. We are fresher.

You can't say even if we see more drives per game (11.5) like we did last year, that we could play as fresh and only give up this years 1.73 per drive.

Think fresh.

All five of these offenses rank in the top 10 in time of possession (longest average drive), and all five of their defenses are in the bottom 10 in points allowed per drive. IOW, five of the league's "freshest" defenses are among its worst defenses.

NFL rank
Off. TOP/Pts. Allowed
Saints 7th/30th
Bears 9th /26th
Panthers10th /29th
Steelers 8th/25th
Rams 6th/27th

(Cowboys 1st/9th)

The Cowboys' offense has definitely been a factor in limiting the number of opponents' drives, but the offense is not a factor in how the defense has performed on those drives.

 

[DogFace]

All five of these offenses rank in the top 10 in time of possession (longest average drive), and all five of their defenses are in the bottom 10 in points allowed per drive. IOW, five of the league's "freshest" defenses are among its worst defenses.

NFL rank
Off. TOP/Pts. Allowed
Saints 7th/30th
Bears 9th /26th
Panthers10th /29th
Steelers 8th/25th
Rams 6th/27th

(Cowboys 1st/9th)

The Cowboys' offense has definitely been a factor in limiting the number of opponents' drives, but the offense is not a factor in how the defense has performed on those drives.

Excellent point as well.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Huh? We lead the league in turnovers forced per play and are fourth in turnovers forced per possession.

Fair point. I was still thinking in terms of the Bears and Bucs teams that generated twice as many as we do. Hmm, turnovers are down across the board this year: perhaps because the winter weather hasn't hit yet?

Anyway, this is one area where I'm admittedly skeptical: we started off so well generating turnovers last year and they all went away in the second half. And after generating 8 takeaways in games 2-4 this season, we've gotten 4 in games 5-7.

 

[cowboys2233]

Fair point. I was still thinking in terms of the Bears and Bucs teams that generated twice as many as we do. Hmm, turnovers are down across the board this year: perhaps because the winter weather hasn't hit yet?

Anyway, this is one area where I'm admittedly skeptical: we started off so well generating turnovers last year and they all went away in the second half. And after generating 8 takeaways in games 2-4 this season, we've gotten 4 in games 5-7.

I definitely agree on this point -- takeaways are fool's gold, they can dry up in a hurry. But it's also a bit of a comfort -- as you said, our turnovers have dropped off quite a bit, but I haven't seen an impact on the overall performance of the defense. The defense is still relevant.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Fair point. I was still thinking in terms of the Bears and Bucs teams that generated twice as many as we do. Hmm, turnovers are down across the board this year: perhaps because the winter weather hasn't hit yet?

Anyway, this is one area where I'm admittedly skeptical: we started off so well generating turnovers last year and they all went away in the second half. And after generating 8 takeaways in games 2-4 this season, we've gotten 4 in games 5-7.

It does appear that the D's ability to sustain its performance so far will largely depend upon it's ability to continue to force turnovers (including by getting 4th down stops) at relatively high rate.

Do you know if Marinelli's D's have consistently outperformed their peers in that respect? That's certainly part of his rep. Just not sure if the facts support it. If so, it may provide some soft comfort as to whether all of this can be sustained.

 

[JD_KaPow]

All five of these offenses rank in the top 10 in time of possession (longest average drive), and all five of their defenses are in the bottom 10 in points allowed per drive. IOW, five of the league's "freshest" defenses are among its worst defenses.

NFL rank
Off. TOP/Pts. Allowed
Saints 7th/30th
Bears 9th /26th
Panthers10th /29th
Steelers 8th/25th
Rams 6th/27th

(Cowboys 1st/9th)

The Cowboys' offense has definitely been a factor in limiting the number of opponents' drives, but the offense is not a factor in how the defense has performed on those drives.

The fact that some "fresh" defenses are also lousy defenses doesn't imply that for any given defense, being "fresh" is not better than being "tired". It's hard to compare performance quarter-by-quarter in a meaningful way--game dynamics are such that teams are often doing completely different things in the 4th quarter--but it's certainly plausible that part of the improved performance is thanks to "freshness".

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

There was some debate in another thread as to what the actual impact is of time of possession and controlling the clock thus limiting the number of plays the other offense has.

There was also some debate as to whether this defense is improved, and if so, that the improvement is more of a reason as to why we are top 10 in time of possession vs the offense controlling the clock.

So I looked at some stats, per play stats for the defense. Total yardage, points, first downs etc are really meaning less. You need to compare play to play.

But to really demonstrate this point I will list our rankings for Totals:
Total 1st Downs: 1
Total 3rd Downs: 6
Total Points: 10
Total Yards: 14

Looks awesome right? Pretty dominant, top 10 kind of defense. But not so fast.

We are also leading the league in Defensive Plays per game. (56.7) Let's see how we look at a play per play basis:
1st Downs per play:10
3rd Downs per play:19
Points per play:18
Yards per play:27

Not so hot anymore. Let's also throw in 18th for 3rd Down Conversion %. Do these numbers really support the idea that the defense is getting a lot of 3 and outs? Stopping the offense? And speaking of opposing offenses, aside from New Orleans and Seattle ( 7 and 8 respectively) the other 5 opponents are as follows:
NY: 15
San Fran: 21
St Louis: 23
Houston: 24
Tennessee: 29

Now let's compare our offense and defense to that of Philly, because Philly is a fast past offense and we will be playing them soon. Philly is ranked 31st in TOP, we are ranked 2nd. Philly is ranked 3rd in number of plays, we are ranked 7th. Philly averages 22.82 seconds per play (32nd), we average 30.80 (1st).

Philly's defense is also ranked 31st in Defensive Plays per game. 15.1 more plays per game than Dallas.

What would our defense look like from a Totals perspective if they had to be on the field 15.1 more plays a game?
Total 1st Downs: 25
Total 3rd Downs: 19
Total Points: 27
Total Yards: 32

Looks very much like last year.

What's saving us is that we are running the ball. We are #1 in the league in rushing attempts per game (33.6) That's up from only 21 attempts per game last year. We are up on number of offensive plays per game 65.9 compared to 59.8. We average 30.8 seconds per play, up from 29.11. We are controlling the ball 4 minutes and 40 seconds longer this year than last year.

So yes, the running game is helping the defense, very much in fact. And no, the defense is not really much better than last year and should still be a big concern, especially come playoff time.

I don't think anyone disagrees with that. however, you can expect a defense to go from one of all time worst to top 10 and dominant over night. what they have accomplished is fantastic and exceeds my expectations, even in the ratings you show above. I thought best we could do is mid 20's and I would have been perfectly happy with that.

so I for one, don't expect a dominant defense, and being in mid teens is far exceeding what I thought this defense could do from last year. with that said, you also have to look at somegarbage time third downs given up by the team against NO, even NY...those end up in the stats.....and it is still too early to say its balancing out.

and again, does the TOP help us? yes.has the defense improved? yes. is it a dominant defense? no. nothing wrong with that.

so your post, comes across as negative and not sure if you were trying to cool off the dominant talks or just knocking down the defense.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It does appear that the D's ability to sustain its performance so far will largely depend upon it's ability to continue to force turnovers (including by getting 4th down stops) at relatively high rate.

Do you know if Marinelli's D's have consistently outperformed their peers in that respect? That's certainly part of his rep. Just not sure if the facts support it. If so, it may provide some soft comfort as to whether all of this can be sustained.

Don't really know. The Tampa 2, with the prevalent use of zone, tends to favor interceptions with the defense facing the QB more...but we're playing a lot more man than is typical in that scheme. Our opponents have fumbled 7 times and we've recovered 5 of them, so we've been a bit lucky in that regard, but not terribly so.

 

[TwoCentPlain]

I think Seattle's defense last year benefited from a strong run game. Seattle's defense definitely looks better with Lynch and Wilson running successfully. I think any team's defense would benefit from a strong run game.

Stopping the run is also very important for the defense. So far, the Cowboys defense has been able to stop the run for the most part. Make teams one dimensional and good things tend to happen.

 

[Brooksey]

All five of these offenses rank in the top 10 in time of possession (longest average drive), and all five of their defenses are in the bottom 10 in points allowed per drive. IOW, five of the league's "freshest" defenses are among its worst defenses.

NFL rank
Off. TOP/Pts. Allowed
Saints 7th/30th
Bears 9th /26th
Panthers10th /29th
Steelers 8th/25th
Rams 6th/27th

(Cowboys 1st/9th)

The Cowboys' offense has definitely been a factor in limiting the number of opponents' drives, but the offense is not a factor in how the defense has performed on those drives.

Your interpretation is not fact. You can't apply this years defense to last years offense the way you have it, that's the only fact that exists here.

 

[percyhoward]

Anyway, this is one area where I'm admittedly skeptical: we started off so well generating turnovers last year and they all went away in the second half. And after generating 8 takeaways in games 2-4 this season, we've gotten 4 in games 5-7.

To get rid of the effect of takeaways on points allowed, filter out the drives that ended with a takeaway.

Percentage of ALL opponents' drives
that have resulted in a score
1 Det 26%
2 Ind 28%
3 SD 29%
4 Den 30%
5 Bal 29%
6 Phi 30%
7 Dal 30%
8 Ari 30%

Percentage of drives NOT ending in turnovers
that have resulted in a score
1 Det 30%
2 Ind 32%
3 SD 32%
4 Den 32%
5 Bal 33%
6 Phi 34%
7 Buf 36%
8 Dal 36%

 

[percyhoward]

You can't apply this years defense to last years offense the way you have it.

You can't simply chalk up this year's defensive performance to freshness.

 

[Brooksey]

The Cowboys' offense has definitely been a factor in limiting the number of opponents' drives, but the offense is not a factor in how the defense has performed on those drives.

You're right, the whole world is wrong. From Jimmy Johnson to Steve Mariucci, all of these SB coaches say our offense is helping our defense except you. I guess you are smarter than the whole NFL world because of your interpretation of football outsiders stats.

Got it.

 

[Brooksey]

You can't simply chalk up this year's defensive performance to freshness.

I never did. I said it was a factor. The other factors include its our second year in the system, Marinelli has been promoted to DC, and Rolando McClain makes a big difference in the middle. It's all a living, breathing dynamic thing.

 

[percyhoward]

The fact that some "fresh" defenses are also lousy defenses doesn't imply that for any given defense, being "fresh" is not better than being "tired". It's hard to compare performance quarter-by-quarter in a meaningful way--game dynamics are such that teams are often doing completely different things in the 4th quarter--but it's certainly plausible that part of the improved performance is thanks to "freshness".

The question isn't whether you'd rather have a fresh defense or a tired one, it's how much of the defensive performance is attributable to the offense's increase in TOP.

 

[Brooksey]

The question isn't whether you'd rather have a fresh defense or a tired one, it's how much of the defensive performance is attributable to the offense's increase in TOP.

If being fresh on defense doesn't matter, besides moving from base to nickel, why do we rotate personnel ? Can you answer that? Why not give guys on the d-line 60 snaps?