Running game is why the defense looks better

[Risen Star]

There was some debate in another thread as to what the actual impact is of time of possession and controlling the clock thus limiting the number of plays the other offense has.

There was also some debate as to whether this defense is improved, and if so, that the improvement is more of a reason as to why we are top 10 in time of possession vs the offense controlling the clock.

So I looked at some stats, per play stats for the defense. Total yardage, points, first downs etc are really meaning less. You need to compare play to play.

But to really demonstrate this point I will list our rankings for Totals:
Total 1st Downs: 1
Total 3rd Downs: 6
Total Points: 10
Total Yards: 14

Looks awesome right? Pretty dominant, top 10 kind of defense. But not so fast.

We are also leading the league in Defensive Plays per game. (56.7) Let's see how we look at a play per play basis:
1st Downs per play:10
3rd Downs per play:19
Points per play:18
Yards per play:27

Not so hot anymore. Let's also throw in 18th for 3rd Down Conversion %. Do these numbers really support the idea that the defense is getting a lot of 3 and outs? Stopping the offense? And speaking of opposing offenses, aside from New Orleans and Seattle ( 7 and 8 respectively) the other 5 opponents are as follows:
NY: 15
San Fran: 21
St Louis: 23
Houston: 24
Tennessee: 29

Now let's compare our offense and defense to that of Philly, because Philly is a fast past offense and we will be playing them soon. Philly is ranked 31st in TOP, we are ranked 2nd. Philly is ranked 3rd in number of plays, we are ranked 7th. Philly averages 22.82 seconds per play (32nd), we average 30.80 (1st).

Philly's defense is also ranked 31st in Defensive Plays per game. 15.1 more plays per game than Dallas.

What would our defense look like from a Totals perspective if they had to be on the field 15.1 more plays a game?
Total 1st Downs: 25
Total 3rd Downs: 19
Total Points: 27
Total Yards: 32

Looks very much like last year.

What's saving us is that we are running the ball. We are #1 in the league in rushing attempts per game (33.6) That's up from only 21 attempts per game last year. We are up on number of offensive plays per game 65.9 compared to 59.8. We average 30.8 seconds per play, up from 29.11. We are controlling the ball 4 minutes and 40 seconds longer this year than last year.

So yes, the running game is helping the defense, very much in fact. And no, the defense is not really much better than last year and should still be a big concern, especially come playoff time.

Outstanding post, BF.

Rod Marinelli.

 

[Sportsbabe]

The thing of it is...and you saw this against Seattle...Dallas is a highly disciplined and well coached unit at the moment. If you watched how ragged and undisciplined Washington was in the week before (against Seattle), you get some idea of why this unit is overachieving this year. Marinelli has really put his imprint on those guys and there has been complete, unadulterated buy-in at every position...or so it seems. These guys believe in what they are doing and they can become better by years end. Now...if they can just stay reasonably healthy down the stretch...

What some call over achieving, I call well-disciplined smart athletes following excellent coaching.

 

[percyhoward]

Last year, our offense ranked 15th in TOP, and our defense faced 11.5 drives per game, giving up an average of 2.31 points on each drive, for 26.6 points per game.

This year, we have the #1 offense in TOP, and our defense has faced an average of only 10.4 drives per game, giving up 1.73 points on each drive.

To find out how this year's defense would be doing with last year's offense, multiply last year's 11.5 drives faced by this year's 1.73 points allowed per drive. It comes out to 19.9 points per game.

Even if our offense ranked 15th in TOP like it did last year, this year's defense would still be giving up almost a touchdown less per game than last year's.

This year, with more than a full drive less per game, our opponents are actually scoring 18.0 points per game, compared to 26.6 last year. Our offense's league-leading TOP is taking 1.9 points per game away from the opponent. Our defense is taking away the other 6.7.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Yeah I think people are underestimating this defense getting better. They simply know how to get off the field on 3rd downs now. That in itself has done WONDERS. While the running game helps the defense I think its doing the defense a injustice to just assume thats' why they are doing better. The defense is making plays and getting off the field.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

I just had this discussion with a co-worker. I disagree. Man this Fantasy Football world we live in today is something else. This defense is better because of two MAJOR things: stopping the opponent on situational 3rd downs and stopping the opponent from scoring in situational football period. People are so wrapped up in numbers it skews their logical thinking.

You can run the football all day long. When you eventually give the ball back to the opponent, if the defense can't stop them, then it's a wrap.

Forcing turnovers at exactly the right time has been key, especially in the Seahawks and Giants games.

 

[JD_KaPow]

My guess is that the ranking would suffer a bit if 20+ yd plays surrendered was expressed on a per play basis. I would also expect the average yardage surrendered by our D on 20+ yard plays to be high, relative to the league average. Again, just guesses based upon what the other data suggests.

First of all, we've given up 22 20+-yard plays, not 16. That ties us for 7th in the league.

On a per-play basis, we rank right in the middle, 16th. Last year, we were 28th. Which makes sense: I sure haven't seen them get burned deep as much this year. And that is definitely encouraging.

Okay, so we have the same yards per play, but give up fewer big gains, which means the standard deviation must be lower, so we're also generating fewer negative plays and short gains. That could be consistent with improved LB/S play and worse DL play, I suppose.

We're giving up fewer plays per drive than last year, so I'm still not buying the whole bend-don't-break theory. And I have trouble believing that a team that (a) gives up a lot of yards per play, (b) generates few stuffs or short gains and (c) doesn't generate a lot of turnovers, is going to continue to have good success at getting the other offense off the field. Unless they start playing better (cue Carter and Lawrence). Again, we'll see.

 

[AdamJT13]

My guess is that the ranking would suffer a bit if 20+ yd plays surrendered was expressed on a per play basis. I would also expect the average yardage surrendered by our D on 20+ yard plays to be high, relative to the league average. Again, just guesses based upon what the other data suggests.

That link showed only pass plays of 20-plus. Including rushing plays, we've allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards (seventh fewest), which puts us 15th on a per-play basis. The 20-plus plays we've allowed have gone for an average of 32.64 yards, which is the eighth-highest in the league.

But what has hurt our per-play defensive average the most hasn't been the plays we've given up, it has been the plays we've not made -- specifically, plays behind the line of scrimmage. We've made only 18 stops behind the line, including sacks. That's easily the fewest in the league, even with 11 teams having played only six games (the Bengals have the second fewest, with 22 in six games, and the Cardinals are next with 25 in six games). We're also the worst in the league at forcing negative yards on a per-play basis, and those that we DO force are for the fewest yards lost, on average (minus-2.17, with the next worst being minus-3.16). Obviously, a lack of sacks is a big part of all of those numbers.

One thing that affects our yards allowed per play but doesn't affect our points allowed or "drive success rate" is the empty yards we allow on third downs. Specifically, those third-down passes that are completed but do not gain enough for a first down -- there have been 17 of them, or 2.83 per game. The NFL average is 1.64 per game. So, we've basically allowed seven more third-down completions that we stopped short of a first down than an average defense would have allowed. Those yards count against us as yards allowed, but they usually don't hurt us much more than an incomplete pass (or even a sack) would have. That's also one reason why our opponent's fourth downs have been for the third-least yards to go, an average of 6.33 yards.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I think the defense is improved, but everybody knows it is still a work in progress.

Steven Jones basically admitted this when he said the offense was "complete" and that the organization needed to start focusing on the defensive side of the ball. Steven also said that while the defense has played hard and is hungry, they are not the most skilled defense in the NFL.

Translation.............expect a defensive heavy draft and any free agents signed will most likely be on that side of the ball............the organization knows the talent level of the defense needs upgrading beyond the current roster.

 

[AdamJT13]

(c) doesn't generate a lot of turnovers

Huh? We lead the league in turnovers forced per play and are fourth in turnovers forced per possession.

 

[gmoney112]

Huh? We lead the league in turnovers forced per play and are fourth in turnovers forced per possession.

First off, welcome back. Probably don't know who I am but your posts are always outstanding.

Secondly, yeah, according to Football Outsiders we force .164 TO's per opponent's drive. That's #4 in the league.

Third, you're a smart guy. You know, for some here, opinion will reign supreme over every fact presented to them. It's the way of The Zone. Not saying Jim is like that, but there is a segment here that's incapable of seeing logic.

Fourth, what do you recommend for cap information? Is Over The Cap reliable?

 

[Gridiron Man]

Page 7. What can I say that hasn't been said already in a thread this deep? In this case, I will make an exception and reply.

Why on earth would anyone try to make the argument that our success on defense has to do entirely with the running game and our defense is over achieving? Screw the stats. Just look at my signature and you'll see what I think of stats.

All you have to do is use your eyes to observe performance, execution, and talent. This defense has the makings of something great. We are one solid defensive draft away from nailing it.

 

[Lazyking]

The running game does help but when I watch the defense, they are rarely out of position and tackle pretty well. The forced turnovers likely won't last but still, a less talented defense can overcome alot by just playing sound fundamentals.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

I like how I posted the numbers for this year previously, and I neither got a "like" nor a "Game. Set. Match".

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

That link showed only pass plays of 20-plus. Including rushing plays, we've allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards (seventh fewest), which puts us 15th on a per-play basis. The 20-plus plays we've allowed have gone for an average of 32.64 yards, which is the eighth-highest in the league.

But what has hurt our per-play defensive average the most hasn't been the plays we've given up, it has been the plays we've not made -- specifically, plays behind the line of scrimmage. We've made only 18 stops behind the line, including sacks. That's easily the fewest in the league, even with 11 teams having played only six games (the Bengals have the second fewest, with 22 in six games, and the Cardinals are next with 25 in six games). We're also the worst in the league at forcing negative yards on a per-play basis, and those that we DO force are for the fewest yards lost, on average (minus-2.17, with the next worst being minus-3.16). Obviously, a lack of sacks is a big part of all of those numbers.

One thing that affects our yards allowed per play but doesn't affect our points allowed or "drive success rate" is the empty yards we allow on third downs. Specifically, those third-down passes that are completed but do not gain enough for a first down -- there have been 17 of them, or 2.83 per game. The NFL average is 1.64 per game. So, we've basically allowed seven more third-down completions that we stopped short of a first down than an average defense would have allowed. Those yards count against us as yards allowed, but they usually don't hurt us much more than an incomplete pass (or even a sack) would have. That's also one reason why our opponent's fourth downs have been for the third-least yards to go, an average of 6.33 yards.

Really helpful analysis. Thanks

 

[Fredd]

the one thing that the running game DOES give us, IMO, is a shorter distance to make on 3rd down...that sustains drives when you have 3rd and short vs 3rd and 6+....Romo has been very efficient since week 2 and his life is easier when murray gets 5 on first down...so, I think the Defense benefits from the offense in general, not just from the running game....

 

[cowboys2233]

That's points per play. Doesn't matter if one team has played more games.

Jumped into the middle of this thread, didn't see that these were "per play" rankings. Do these "points per play" rankings take points from defensive scores into account (i.e. remove them)? I would certainly hope so, those are hardly the fault of a defense. Do they take starting field position into account? Another potentially significant factor.

 

[cowboys2233]

Jumped into the middle of this thread, didn't see that these were "per play" rankings. Do these "points per play" rankings take points from defensive scores into account (i.e. remove them)? I would certainly hope so, those are hardly the fault of a defense. Do they take starting field position into account? Another potentially significant factor.

Sorry, very late to the thread as it turns out. It seems that many confounding factors have already been presented and discussed. My work here is done. LOL.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

This year, with more than a full drive less per game, our opponents are actually scoring 18.0 points per game, compared to 26.6 last year. Our offense's league-leading TOP is taking 1.9 points per game away from the opponent. Our defense is taking away the other 6.7.

Very nice. If anything, this overstates the offense's contribution to PPG improvement since it credits all of the TOP advantage to the offense. As you, among others, have previously indicated, that TOP advantage is partly attributable to the D's own ability to get itself off the field.

 

[ghst187]

the offense staying on the field and grinding out the clock definitely helps the D big time. That's not to say this D isn't better than last year, but its still a patchwork D and if our O hung them out to dry like they did last year, we'd be talking about how bad the D is again….as they'd be on the field all the time.
Defenses are better when fresh, while offenses need rhythm. To get rhythm, you have to get reps. Sitting on the sidelines for a half an entire quarter at a time disrupts that offensive rhythm while the D sits and gets fresher and schemes. The other issue is that our offense, most games, is putting teams in a hole points-wise. When you get behind, most teams start to stop running the ball. A one-dimensional offense is tons easier to stop than a multi-headed hydra like we have. (also why Peyton only has 1 ring). I think the most telling stat of the Seattle game was Marshawn's sad stat line. Not that they were behind as much as some of our other opponents, but enough that they didn't stick with their typical game plan. Our teams of the 90's did exactly like our team this year has done several games now. Take the opening drive right down for a TD, with a huge dose of running game, some OL brutality, and some key 3rd down conversions. I remember our 90s teams melting much of the 1st quarter and always starting the game 7-0.
That really challenges the mettle of an opponent. They want to catch up quickly which reduces their margin of error. One or two good pass defenses and they're giving us the ball back and sitting the rest of the quarter. Not that the Saints are good running it, but man, we brutalized them physically and in ToP. It was 24-0 at half and they would've have had enough time to run the ball even if they wanted to. Additionally, in years past our offense would've gone 3 and out and let the Saints back in the game. Our ability to, not just run the ball, but continue running it gaining first down after first down and eventually getting into scoring position all while melting the clock, has separated this team from the last few years and a Ws from Ls. And I won't even talk about the psychological defeat of putting 8-9 in the box and still not being able to stop our running game….and then watch Murray still rip off a 15 yarder time and again (also knowing that they're giving a top 3 WR one on one coverage on the outside and a good QB 9 seconds to throw it). Good luck with that.

 

[percyhoward]

But what has hurt our per-play defensive average the most hasn't been the plays we've given up, it has been the plays we've not made -- specifically, plays behind the line of scrimmage. We've made only 18 stops behind the line, including sacks. That's easily the fewest in the league, even with 11 teams having played only six games (the Bengals have the second fewest, with 22 in six games, and the Cardinals are next with 25 in six games). We're also the worst in the league at forcing negative yards on a per-play basis, and those that we DO force are for the fewest yards lost, on average (minus-2.17, with the next worst being minus-3.16). Obviously, a lack of sacks is a big part of all of those numbers.

One thing that affects our yards allowed per play but doesn't affect our points allowed or "drive success rate" is the empty yards we allow on third downs. Specifically, those third-down passes that are completed but do not gain enough for a first down -- there have been 17 of them, or 2.83 per game. The NFL average is 1.64 per game. So, we've basically allowed seven more third-down completions that we stopped short of a first down than an average defense would have allowed. Those yards count against us as yards allowed, but they usually don't hurt us much more than an incomplete pass (or even a sack) would have. That's also one reason why our opponent's fourth downs have been for the third-least yards to go, an average of 6.33 yards.

Good example of why points matter more than yards, and specifically why the result of a drive or a down series matters more than the average gain of a play. It also shows the importance of pressures and situational pass defense (allocation of resources, basically).