Rushing to help the Defense

[percyhoward]

But they somehow managed to score 200 more points while the D gave up 22 pts less

Now we're no longer talking about ball control, but scoring. Specifically, the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

TD from inside/outside red zone
2014 33/20
2015 20/4

 

[AbeBeta]

Our defense played on average one snap less per game in 14 than they did last year

It isn't the snaps. It is the situational snaps. Our D was similar to 2014. Very similar in terms of snaps and time on field. Our O scored 200 fewer points. The D rarely played with a lead so teams took fewer chances meaning fewer turnovers. If the O played as well as they did in 2014, our D would have looked pretty good

 

[percyhoward]

Time of possession and "rest" are two different things. The defense being on the field for ten minutes in the fourth quarter when your team is up 14 points is different than being on the field ten minutes in the first quarter down by 7.

No kidding, but that's about scoring -- not keeping the defense rested.

Also, you wouldn't look at the length of a defensive possession to determine how much the offense did to keep the defense rested. You'd have to look at the length of offensive possessions. In 2015, the duration of the Dallas offense's average drive ranked 3rd in the NFL. 2nd in the NFL through 3 quarters, and 2nd when the margin was one score or less.

The 2014 offense didn't control the clock any better, it just played a whole lot better. Ball control means nothing when you can't pass and score points.

 

[AbeBeta]

Now we're no longer talking about ball control, but scoring. Specifically, the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

TD from inside/outside red zone
2014 33/20
2015 20/4

Really those stats are aren't about scoring inside vs outside. What should scream out from those numbers is that we hardly scored TDs in 2015.

It isn't that we couldn't score from anywhere on the field. It is that we couldn't score. 24 TDs is pitiful.

 

[percyhoward]

What should scream out from those numbers is that we hardly scored TDs in 2015.

That's true, if you specifically want to be less specific.

Drop off in TD, 2015
total TD -55%
red zone TD -40%
other TD -80%

 

[jazzcat22]

Our defense played on average one snap less per game in 14 than they did last year

The 14 defense played 7 snaps less per game than they did from the 13 team. In 14, yeah we ran the ball down teams throats.
Last year the offense could not stay on the field, and still only 1 snap per game difference, and stat wise they were about the same, except the TO ratio.
Which was explained in an earlier post, as a result of rested and leads.

 

[JBS]

That's true, if you specifically want to be less specific.

Drop off in TD, 2015
total TD -55%
red zone TD -40%
other TD -80%

How did we fare in the TO dept in 2014 vs less turnover prone teams? I know you mentioned we played a lot of teams prone to TOs...did we play any that took care of the ball well that year?

 

[percyhoward]

Last year the offense could not stay on the field...

Wrong.

TOP per offensive drive (NFL rank)
2014 3:02 (2nd)
2015 3:00 (3rd)

The 2015 defense was on the field longer because its own (defensive) drives were longer, not because the offense's drives were shorter.

 

[jazzcat22]

Wrong.

TOP per offensive drive (NFL rank)
2014 3:02 (2nd)
2015 3:00 (3rd)

The 2015 defense was on the field longer because its own (defensive) drives were longer, not because the offense's drives were shorter.

This does not make any sense.

 

[percyhoward]

How did we fare in the TO dept in 2014 vs less turnover prone teams? I know you mentioned we played a lot of teams prone to TOs...did we play any that took care of the ball well that year?

In 2014, we only played 4 games against teams that didn't rank in the bottom 10 (or ties) in fewest turnovers: Seattle, Arizona, Houston, and San Francisco. We averaged 0.75 takeaways per game against them, and 2.33 in the other twelve games.

 

[percyhoward]

This does not make any sense.

What part of it are you unable to make sense of?

 

[JBS]

In 2014, we only played 4 games against teams that didn't rank in the bottom 10 (or ties) in fewest turnovers: Seattle, Arizona, Houston, and San Francisco. We averaged 0.75 takeaways per game against them, and 2.33 in the other twelve games.

Excellent work. Much appreciated...big dip in turnovers...2-2 record as well..one game wo Tony

 

[jazzcat22]

No kidding, but that's about scoring -- not keeping the defense rested.

Also, you wouldn't look at the length of a defensive possession to determine how much the offense did to keep the defense rested. You'd have to look at the length of offensive possessions. In 2015, the duration of the Dallas offense's average drive ranked 3rd in the NFL. 2nd in the NFL through 3 quarters, and 2nd when the margin was one score or less.

The 2014 offense didn't control the clock any better, it just played a whole lot better. Ball control means nothing when you can't pass and score points.

Could the theory that Dallas uses, is running the clock down to 1 second before snapping the ball have anything to with length of the possession....
It is the lack of efficiency in producing points. But still those seconds adds up to keep the defense off the field in theory.
Numbers can be misleading as well as manipulated to skew an opinion in their favor. They are not always black and white.

As you said, if you can't score, all of that means nothing. Injuries played into that last year. They still tried to run to control the clock, but couldn't score.

 

[percyhoward]

Excellent work. Much appreciated...big dip in turnovers...2-2 record as well..one game wo Tony

Most people only look at the schedule before it gets played, which ironically is the time when you know the least about the schedule.

 

[percyhoward]

Numbers can be misleading as well as manipulated to skew an opinion in their favor. They are not always black and white.

It also depends on the amount of knowledge you bring to your analysis of the numbers. The reason some are misled in this case is that they equate running the ball and controlling the clock with winning, so if you don't win then you must not be doing those things.

Actually, those things don't start to become so important until you can build and maintain a lead.

 

[Sydla]

We know that a strong rushing game does nothing to help us win, according to the many analytical analysts on this site.......but at least we have people that believe it will help our Defense

Church is buying into Jerry Jones’ assertion that the selection of running back Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth overall pick will be a boon to the defense because the offense can get back to the long drives that made things work so well for the Cowboys in 2014.

https://www.facebook.com/notes/siri...tart-off-how-we-wanted-to-s/10154270663682510

Hmmmm............ who to believe.

Barry Church or actual math? That's a tough call.

 

[Sydla]

But they somehow managed to score 200 more points while the D gave up 22 pts less

Yeah because in 2014 they had their star QB and star WR completely healthy.

What helped the defense in 2014 was the offense actually scored in 2014. Not that the offense kept the defense off the field much longer than 2015.

So the logic behind drafting Elliott should have been he will help us score a lot and score early, not that we think he's going to keep the defense rested. Because actual facts don't back up that latter claim.

 

[jazzcat22]

Hmmmm............ who to believe.

Barry Church or actual math? That's a tough call.

Barry Church...he is the player and has more in depth knowledge of the players and the team. And how it is impacted.
And it's not actual math, it is stats...and those can be manipulated and / or theorized to one's own agenda.

 

[jazzcat22]

Yeah because in 2014 they had their star QB and star WR completely healthy.

What helped the defense in 2014 was the offense actually scored in 2014. Not that the offense kept the defense off the field much longer than 2015.

So the logic behind drafting Elliott should have been he will help us score a lot and score early, not that we think he's going to keep the defense rested. Because actual facts don't back up that latter claim.

Agree in what you say, but also it can help the defense rest. The offense scores, and gets and maintains a lead.
Then the defense can sit back and play the pass more. They aren't spending energy running down plays and RB's as much. They can expect the pass more often than not.
However this is where we need a pass rush / good secondary play. Something we been lacking for a while. Hopefully the new players and changes this year, we finally get that.

 

[Sydla]

Barry Church...he is the player and has more in depth knowledge of the players and the team. And how it is impacted.
And it's not actual math, it is stats...and those can be manipulated and / or theorized to one's own agenda.

Statistics is math.

And you can't really "manipulate" the stats that have been shown to undermine the claims being made. If anything, the pro-RB gives the defense rest crowd is the one trying to manipulate stats for their own purpose.

It's very simple and I do hope eventually some of you will wise up to it. The defense was helped in 2014 compared to 2015 because the offense in 2014 actually put points on the board and often had the defense playing with a lead as compared to the 2015 team that often saw the defense playing from behind.

So if people want to argue that Elliott was a wise pick because he will help the offense score a crap ton and score early, that's a fairly sound argument. If people want to argue that Elliott was a wise pick because he's going to run the ball and eat up clock and allow the defense more time on the sideline to eat water ice and popcorn, that's just an erroneous line of thinking.