Rushing to help the Defense

[jazzcat22]

Statistics is math.

And you can't really "manipulate" the stats that have been shown to undermine the claims being made. If anything, the pro-RB gives the defense rest crowd is the one trying to manipulate stats for their own purpose.

It's very simple and I do hope eventually some of you will wise up to it. The defense was helped in 2014 compared to 2015 because the offense in 2014 actually put points on the board and often had the defense playing with a lead as compared to the 2015 team that often saw the defense playing from behind.

So if people want to argue that Elliott was a wise pick because he will help the offense score a crap ton and score early, that's a fairly sound argument. If people want to argue that Elliott was a wise pick because he's going to run the ball and eat up clock and allow the defense more time on the sideline to eat water ice and popcorn, that's just an erroneous line of thinking.

Elliott and this offense can score too quick as well, therefore reducing TOP. We could have 25 minutes TOP and be winning 49 - 35.....

 

[Nightman]

Hmmmm............ who to believe.

Barry Church or actual math? That's a tough call.

You choose to believe some fans instead of a guy on the field for every play

And yes stats can be arraigned and manipulated to show any story you want

Consider these two running backs:

"Running Back A" is a flat-out stud. Since he came into the NFL, no running back has scored more rushing touchdowns. In fact, since joining the league there are only five active running backs with more total fantasy points. If half the battle is just showing up, as the old saying goes, it's no surprise this guy wins so often. He never has missed a game in his NFL career, even after a season in which it seemed as if every running back got hurt. A true chain-moving workhorse, only three running backs have more first downs during the past two seasons than our guy who is also tough to tackle. Among active running backs, he's eighth in total yards after contact since 2014. But it's not just between the 20s for Running Back A, as only one back has more carries in goal-to-goal situations since he came into the league. He averaged 7 yards per reception and is involved in every part of his team's offense -- no RB/WR/TE touched the ball more on his team last season -- and that's a good thing, since last season his squad was one of the 10 highest-scoring offenses in football. Per Tristan H. Cockcroft's always-helpful consistency rankings, only six RBs were a "stud" more often last season (A "stud" being defined as a top-five finish at the position for the week). So he single-handedly carried your team for a week a number of times last season. Super consistent, he has been a top-15 fantasy running back every single year he has been in the NFL, he's coming off a career high in both touches and touchdowns, and with the offseason losses to the team's passing game, expect them to lean on Running Back A even more this season, making him an easy selection early in your draft.

When talking about "Running Back B," you can't ignore how much of a disappointment he was last season. Of the 44 running backs in the NFL to get at least 100 carries, Running Back B was 42nd in yards per carry, averaging just 3.56 yards a tote. A true one-dimensional runner, there were 48 different running backs that ran more routes than Running Back B last season, including players like Antonio Andrews and fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Clearly stuck in a committee, in eight different games last season our player started the game, finished the game (so not injury-related) and finished with six or fewer fantasy points. In fact, he had five different games last season with at least nine touches and two or fewer points. That's not a misprint. Basically double-digit touches and two or fewer points. Five different times. How bad was this guy? The "passing-down" back in this offense had only six fewer red zone carries than Running Back B and, in fact, he was the better RUNNER in the red zone, averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the red zone to our guy's 2.2. During the past two years, no running back in the NFL has lost more fumbles than Running Back B and everything is trending in the wrong direction, as he had career lows last season in total yards, yards per carry, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points, among many other stats. Ask anyone who owned this guy in 2015 and they will tell you, "Never again." Learn from their mistake and avoid this guy this year.

So ... everything I just wrote about each player above is 100 percent true.

Tell me, which guy do you want?

Before you answer, you should know that both players are Jeremy Hill.

Yeah.

You see? I can talk up or talk down any player I want. I just have to choose the right stats for the job. There's very little in this world at which I'm good, but one thing at which I am fantastic? Manipulating stats to tell the story I want them to.

 

[Nightman]

What team do you think teams want to see in the 4th quarter.....a 500+ carry team led by the monsters on the OL pounding the ball down their throats.....or the 500+ passes team that has the OL on their heels and the DL can pin back their ears and bring it

Anyone that says a dominating running game doesn't wear out the other team mentally and physically hasn't watched enough football and might want to put down the Madden controllers.....all of DAL's championship teams had a stellar running game and a top OL.....they could put the ball in the end zone and put teams away when it matters....

I can't wait to see what an athletic 21 year old with great vision can do behind this line

 

[Sydla]

You choose to believe some fans instead of a guy on the field for every play

I believe my own eyes and research.

Church is wrong. He just is. Just because he plays football doesn't mean he's right in this matter. The 2014 defense was "better" because the offense was efficient and scored a lot of points and put the defense into positions where teams were trying to score to keep up. If he had said that, he'd have been right.

And the fact you think your RB A & B example somehow refutes the "rest" argument is hilarious.

 

[percyhoward]

You choose to believe some fans instead of a guy on the field for every play

And yes stats can be arraigned and manipulated to show any story you want.

There's really nothing sinister going on here. You're ascribing team success to ball control offense, when there's actually no strong correlation.

Only four of the Top 10 teams in offensive TOP were also in the Top 10 in offensive scoring last year. Three of them (Dallas, San Diego, Chicago) were in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

Only 4 of the Top 10 scoring teams were also Top 10 in TOP. Three of them (NE, Pittsburgh, Giants) were in the bottom half of the league in TOP.

This happens every year in the NFL.

 

[Sydla]

What team do you think teams want to see in the 4th quarter.....a 500+ carry team led by the monsters on the OL pounding the ball down their throats.....or the 500+ passes team that has the OL on their heels and the DL can pin back their ears and bring it

Anyone that says a dominating running game doesn't wear out the other team mentally and physically hasn't watched enough football and might want to put down the Madden controllers.....all of DAL's championship teams had a stellar running game and a top OL.....they could put the ball in the end zone and put teams away when it matters....

I can't wait to see what an athletic 21 year old with great vision can do behind this line

And none of this really relates to the topic on hand.

No one has denied that having a great running game is a bad thing or wouldn't be great.

What people are saying is that this notion that a great running game keeps the defense on the sideline longer and allows them to rest more isn't supported by any real evidence, especially when comparing the 2014 season, which is viewed as the blueprint for success, to the 2015 season, which is considered an utter failure.

 

[big dog cowboy]

There's really nothing sinister going on here. You're ascribing team success to ball control offense, when there's actually no strong correlation.

Only four of the Top 10 teams in offensive TOP were also in the Top 10 in offensive scoring last year. Three of them (Dallas, San Diego, Chicago) were in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

Only 4 of the Top 10 scoring teams were also Top 10 in TOP. Three of them (NE, Pittsburgh, Giants) were in the bottom half of the league in TOP.

This happens every year in the NFL.

 

[Nightman]

I believe my own eyes and research.

Church is wrong. He just is. Just because he plays football doesn't mean he's right in this matter. The 2014 defense was "better" because the offense was efficient and scored a lot of points and put the defense into positions where teams were trying to score to keep up. If he had said that, he'd have been right.

And the fact you think your RB A & B example somehow refutes the "rest" argument is hilarious.

And you can't really "manipulate" the stats that have been shown to undermine the claims being made. If anything, the pro-RB gives the defense rest crowd is the one trying to manipulate stats for their own purpose. - Sydla

You see? I can talk up or talk down any player I want. I just have to choose the right stats for the job. There's very little in this world at which I'm good, but one thing at which I am fantastic? Manipulating stats to tell the story I want them to. -Matt Berry

It refutes your love affair with stats, has nothing to do with rest..... I see that you can't keep up so I will take it easy on you from now on

 

[Nightman]

And none of this really relates to the topic on hand.

No one has denied that having a great running game is a bad thing or wouldn't be great.

What people are saying is that this notion that a great running game keeps the defense on the sideline longer and allows them to rest more isn't supported by any real evidence, especially when comparing the 2014 season, which is viewed as the blueprint for success, to the 2015 season, which is considered an utter failure.

SSS

 

[Nightman]

There's really nothing sinister going on here. You're ascribing team success to ball control offense, when there's actually no strong correlation.

Only four of the Top 10 teams in offensive TOP were also in the Top 10 in offensive scoring last year. Three of them (Dallas, San Diego, Chicago) were in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

Only 4 of the Top 10 scoring teams were also Top 10 in TOP. Three of them (NE, Pittsburgh, Giants) were in the bottom half of the league in TOP.

This happens every year in the NFL.

DAL is not all teams......we are built to run the ball to control the game......period

And your beloved passing/rushing theory fails 4 times EVERY week......not that solid

 

[Kaiser]

It also depends on the amount of knowledge you bring to your analysis of the numbers. The reason some are misled in this case is that they equate running the ball and controlling the clock with winning, so if you don't win then you must not be doing those things.

Its way too early to pull out the "everyone is stupid but me" card. The issue isn't running the ball, its running the ball successfully and executing your offense successfully. You keep quoting the combined time of possession per game and that kind of aggregation doesn't tell the whole story.

Person A works at a desk all day. Person B runs a marathon in the morning and drops dead in the evening. They have the same average heartrate for the day, right?

Example Two:

Nov 9, 2014 Dallas had 30 rushing attempts and 31:32 minutes of time of possession in a 31-17 win over the Jags where Dallas lead 31-7 going into the 4th Quarter.

Oct 25, 2015 Dallas had 41 rushing attempts and 38:04 minutes of time of possession in a 20-27 loss to the Giants.


Which of those two games gave the Dallas defense more rest?

 

[percyhoward]

DAL is not all teams......we are built to run the ball to control the game......period

Whether the team is built for ball control or not (we aren't the ideal ball-control team, because we don't have the defense for it) it only works when you establish and maintain a lead. With a lead, TOP can be an effective weapon. Without a lead, TOP by itself is basically worthless.

Last year, teams that ranked in the Top 10 in offensive TOP averaged just 1.7 more wins than teams that ranked in the bottom 10.

NFL rank, offensive TOP (avg # of wins in 2015)
1st-10th: 8.4
11th-22nd: 7.8
23rd-32nd: 6.7

That's a weak correlation to wins.

And I realize you aren't saying you'd prefer ball control over good defense, but just to provide a point of comparison, look at defensive passer rating:
1st-10th: 11.0
11th-22nd: 8.0
23rd-32nd: 5.3

A team that ranked among the Top 10 teams in DPR went 11-5, on average. The average bottom 10 team went 5-11. This is a strong correlation.

 

[percyhoward]

You keep quoting the combined time of possession per game and that kind of aggregation doesn't tell the whole story.

No, I'm looking only at TOP per drive.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

 

[Nightman]

Whether the team is built for ball control or not (we aren't the ideal ball-control team, because we don't have the defense for it) it only works when you establish and maintain a lead. With a lead, TOP can be an effective weapon. Without a lead, TOP by itself is basically worthless.

Last year, teams that ranked in the Top 10 in offensive TOP averaged just 1.7 more wins than teams that ranked in the bottom 10.

NFL rank, offensive TOP (avg # of wins in 2015)
1st-10th: 8.4
11th-22nd: 7.8
23rd-32nd: 6.7

That's a weak correlation to wins.

And I realize you aren't saying you'd prefer ball control over good defense, but just to provide a point of comparison, look at defensive passer rating:
1st-10th: 11.0
11th-22nd: 8.0
23rd-32nd: 5.3

A team that ranked among the Top 10 teams in DPR went 11-5, on average. The average bottom 10 team went 5-11. This is a strong correlation.

Lies, damned lies and statistics

You just produce volumes of numerical diarrhea and expect us to un-learn all the basic footballs truths we have lived our whole lives.....times may be a changin' but there is nothing bad that comes from a dominating rushing attack....

 

[percyhoward]

Lies, damned lies and statistics

You just produce volumes of numerical diarrhea and expect us to un-learn all the basic footballs truths we have lived our whole lives.....times may be a changin' but there is nothing bad that comes from a dominating rushing attack....

Us? Anyway, "TOP is worthless without a lead" does not equal "bad things come from a dominating rushing attack."

 

[Kaiser]

No, I'm looking only at TOP per drive.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

Which is also an aggregation. I can pull out a million examples similar to what I just posted but I'm sure you would ignore those also.

 

[cowboyblue22]

Elliot will give the team more explosive plays and the ability to score from anywhere on the field more than anyother back they have or have had in some time and his ability in the passing game is a huge help.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lies, damned lies and statistics

You just produce volumes of numerical diarrhea and expect us to un-learn all the basic footballs truths we have lived our whole lives.....times may be a changin' but there is nothing bad that comes from a dominating rushing attack....

Sorry but going nihilist towards statistical use doesn't posit much for me. If you want to invalidate his model or better yet show a more compelling one then fine but you do little more than cry about the use of stats in the first place.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.

The NFL being dominated by passing is not a new concept. Emmitt nostalgia runs strong though.

 

[Nightman]

Sorry but going nihilist towards statistical use doesn't posit much for me. If you want to invalidate his model or better yet show a more compelling one then fine but you do little more than cry about the use of stats in the first place.

I love stats and analytics but percy throws up a wall of numbers like kjj throws up a wall of words

they lose their meaning and obscures the debate thru sheer volume and repetition

like your use of 5 dollar words and phrases when the rest of us are playing penny ante