But $19M under with Wilson's contract accounted for, correct?
People have been claiming Seattle was going to crumble starting some time around now for a few years because Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, and - most commonly mentioned - Wilson were all playing on cheap deals. Here we are a couple years later, they've signed all of them, and even with a good-sized cap hit of $18.5M for 2016 the team is still sitting at $19M under before Wagner. They save $5M if they cut Avril, and barring an amazing revitalization to his career I would expect them to. So even if Wagner counted for $12M against the cap in 2016, they're still $12M under and it could possibly be more depending on if they do have anything to roll over. Spotrac has them at $7M under right now. Wagner's details apparently aren't out yet but they'll use this year (the last year of his previous deal) to absorb some of the SB. Maybe $10M in SB, so $2M in cap space eaten this year. $5M left. Kick up his base another $2M and the team carries $3M into next year. So they'd be at $15M under next year.
If they're really hard-up for cash they have an ace in the hole with Jimmy Graham's contract because New Orleans ate the SB when they traded him. He has nothing in terms of dead money potential after this year. Depending on if you look at Spotrac or OTC how he is paid varies, but the team could easily restructure about $5M in space (more if they added years) to 2017 and 2018 when they have even more cap space. Even with Avril on the roster they're at $35M in free space in 2017, but if you cut Avril after 2015 and cut Lynch after 2016 (frees up $11M) then they have $54M in free cap space for 2017. More realistically, $42M if Wagner has a $12M cap figure in 2017.
The only real monster contract on the horizon is Russell Okung and I think it's pretty hard to imagine a scenario where they don't have the cap space to make it happen.
You ask me, they have no tough choices. The entire secondary is under contract through 2017 and there's no reason to think they'll do anything with Russell Wilson's contract or with Lynch's (unless he falls off the face of the planet) contract because they have cap space. Anything they did do to Lynch would only serve to free up cap space. They cut Avril next year, cut Lynch when he's 31, sign Okung along the way and they're still probably $30M under for 2017.
It's hard to imagine a scenario where the predicted downfall occurs. They appear to know what they're doing.