Saquon mania vs. Ezekiel facts

[TexasHillbilly]

Thanks for posting......lot of work

For both the writer and the reader.

 

[817Gill]

Love Zeke but Saquon is an all time great talent who if he ran behind this o-line would have finished all those breakaway runs. With a good o line and carries that man is a legit 2k threat annually.

 

[percyhoward]

Since this team ran it's offense through the RB as much as any in the league, would not the presence of that RB account for some of that?

Are we making excuses for the RB in a RB based offense?

No, I'm pointing out how that yardage ranking you mentioned is misleading - both because of the great disparity before and after Cooper, and the fact that it doesn't take possessions into account. Getting yards wasn't a problem for this offense in 2018. After the trade, we ranked 7th in the league, so no excuses necessary.

Red zone is a completely different story, but probably has little to do with the RB anyway.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

That is 6 out of 261 rushes on the year, which is 2.3% of his 2018 runs.

Statistically speaking, that is the definition of outlying.

Outliers are past the 3rd sigma correct? Which is 99.7%, so statistically speaking they aren't outliers.

 

[G2]

Hell of a lot better than the Giants had. You give Barkley some of those holes that Elliott got run down and he'd own the record in 20+ and 40+.

Elliott is the best player on the Cowboys but he's not the best RB in the NFL.

The term "generational talent' gets casually thrown around the forum but there is only one I've seen since Brady and that is Barkley. I am not a Penn St fan, although I do like their coach, and I am not usually bent toward watching a team for one player but after the first time I saw him do what looked physically impossible, I tried to catch every televised game. I have never seen any player do what he can do except Barry Sanders.

He came form the same kind of team he's on now, he was the offense. It's all about stopping him and at least keeping him bottled up. And if he can stay healthy, we haven't seen the best Barkley yet.

I do not know of any back I have ever watched that could have made that leap to score that goal line TD that he made against the Cowboys. If there's any player in the NFL that should be playing that "Superman" role, it sure as hell isn't that tool in CAR, it's Barkley. And just like Superman, he'll be Clark Kent for most of a game but then on comes the cape.

I can't rank him higher for one season. He ran less. NY's O line may have been battered, but is wasn't as bad run blocking. Elliott has played at an elite level his entire career. If Barkley plays great a couple more years I'd be more than happy to claim he's the best. But not in one season. He's got some characteristics in his play.

 

[Future]

Why would you remove the biggest run from a players stat line? They earned that run as well as a run that went for negative yardage.

Because it better accounts for consistency. It's no different than removing outliers from any other data set.

Zeke is the best RB in the league because he is productive on every single play. Saquon is, unequivocally, a better home run hitter.

 

[PoetTree]

There is zero doubt that Zeke is the best RB in the league, by far, at grinding out yards.

In the 1990s, there was no better attribute for a RB.

In the modern game, so heavily tilted via rules changes to a more wide open passing game, is grinding out yards the #1 attribute of a RB? I'm not sure.

Well, the Cowboys record was 10-6 with a playoff win.

The Giants went 5-11 & lost their final game of the season WITH Barkley against a Cowboys team that was sitting Zeke. Barkley's stats from that game?

17-carries for 109-yards @ 6.4 yards-per-carry

But again, if you take away his long run of 68-yards --one play on an entire day of plays-- Saquon's "day" looked like:

16-carries for 41-yards @ 2.56 yards-per-carry

Giants lost the game in part because they couldn't control the clock, convert 3rd-downs, or wear our defense out. Furthermore, Barkley's second-longest run that day was a 26-yarder. This means on just 2 runs Barkley produced 94-of-his-109 yards on the day, or over 86% of his production on the ground. On only 2 runs.

That is very Barry Sanders-esque.

It serves to give him nice stats at the end of the day, and certainly it displays his explosiveness; no one is trying to take that away from him. But in a game with over 70-plays, to produce meaningfully on only 2 of them is really not that great & does not contribute greatly to your team's overall success --no matter how dynamic you might look on those two plays.

Outside of those two plays, Dallas owned Barkley that day.

Subtract those two plays from his totals & his stats become:

15-carries for 15-yards @ 1.0 yards-per-carry

Yes, I know he earned those extra 94-yards. Yes, I recognize the talent that allowed him to reel off those 26 & 68-yarders. Barkley has eye-popping athleticism and he's going to put together an impressive highlight-reel over the course of his career. But thus far, he hasn't figured out how to 'consistently' produce in meaningful ways for his team's success.

For instance, how did the Rams beat us in the playoffs?

They controlled the clock & wore out our defense by running the ball down our throats! Consistently. Over & over again. They bludgeoned us to death in a way that Saquon Barkley did not and/or could not in that last game of the season, which was basically the Giants' Super Bowl. You know they wanted to close the year by handing the NFC East champs a loss going into the playoffs.

So let's compare C.J. Anderson's playoff performance against us to Barkley's:

23-carries for 123-yards @ 5.3 yards-per-carry

Now if you take away Anderson's long run from that game, his stats become:

22-carries for 108-yards @ 4.9 yards-per-carry

And if you take away Anderson's second-longest run from that game?

21-carries for 96-yards @ 4.57 yards-per-carry


Do you get my point?


I'm not suggesting that C.J. Anderson is more talented than Barkley. But my observation has been, and the statistics demonstrate, dating back to his college production, that something about Barkley's style --East-to-West too much of the time, I think, too much shifting & sliding and not enough direct upfield intention-- fails to produce consistently meaningful yardage for his teams.

C.J. Anderson produced for the Rams that day on almost all of his carries. He gave them chunks of positive yardage virtually every time they handed him the ball. He found the creases, he took the yards that were there, and he used his body to grind out extra yards when there wasn't much there. They won.

Barkley, on the other hand, across 88% of his carries, did basically jack-squat for the Giants. And they lost. Even with Zeke sitting on the bench.

Saquon had impressive production on the season. But when you take a closer look at 'how' that production was achieved, you see it wasn't in a way that aided his team in winning a lot of contests. By my assessment, he had very few "complete" games wherein he dominated across a high percentage of his snaps. Rather, he averaged 32.75 yards-per-carry on just 16 handoffs over 16 games, while averaging a paltry 3.19 yards-per-carry across the remaining 245 carries.

There is absolutely a correlation between consistency and winning in the NFL.

Just as C.J. Anderson & the Rams schooled us about in the playoffs.

No one in the NFL gets the consistent yards, the dirty yards, the necessary yards for their team's success like Ezekiel Elliott. Under adverse conditions. When the defense is loading the box. When it's the difference between winning & losing.

Barkley produced an inordinate number of "big-plays", mostly out of passing formations, that didn't consistently allow his team to control the field.

This is what my original post was aimed at fleshing out and why I say that Barkley, despite his immense talent, isn't in the same class as Zeke just yet, if in fact he ever will be. Dating back to college, he never has been...

 

[Future]

Yes that's what some people are saying. I haven't seen Berkeley go sideways or backwards yet to gain yardage so I don't like the comparison

Lol wut? Saquon constantly makes lateral cuts at the LOS to try to get the edge. It's his entire game.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Just so that we have some added context, on the "Barkley does too much east and west movement"

Barkley, despite having a significantly worse run blocking Oline only had 5 more runs for negative yards than Zeke last year.

 

[CouchCoach]

I can't rank him higher for one season. He ran less. NY's O line may have been battered, but is wasn't as bad run blocking. Elliott has played at an elite level his entire career. If Barkley plays great a couple more years I'd be more than happy to claim he's the best. But not in one season. He's got some characteristics in his play.

Fair enough, Elliott has earned his accolades and he's done all he can to help his team.

This is the same thing as all of the Mahomes talk, very same thing. They're compared to others that have done it longer and at a high level, just not that high in their first full season.

And then there's the most underrated characteristic of all that only shows up over time, durability. Elliott has that over Gurley and this dates back to college as well. Gurley came in injured.

Barkley can just do some things that defy description. I have only seen Barry Sanders make a play like he made in college. The DE hits him squarely in the hip and knocks him completely parallel to the ground, his head was actually closer than his feet, and he lands on his feet and keeps running. On the replay you can see the DE getting ready to celebrate only to have this look of amazement and incredulity on his face. Some are just born with special talent and he's one of them.

 

[kskboys]

There is zero doubt that Zeke is the best RB in the league, by far, at grinding out yards.

In the 1990s, there was no better attribute for a RB.

In the modern game, so heavily tilted via rules changes to a more wide open passing game, is grinding out yards the #1 attribute of a RB? I'm not sure.

How many SB winning teams the past 10 years had a grinder?

Atl thinks so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All of them, I think. NE had Blount. SEA had Lynch. BALT had Rice. Philly had Ajayi and Clement and Blount. Broncos had CJ Anderson. NYG had Jacobs.

Who'd I miss? GB? Was Starks able to grind it? Don't know.

 

[CouchCoach]

Some are just going to make a case that a Cowboy is better than anyone else and that's OK, that's part of the game. I've seen some make a case for Prescott vs Brady but it's also fair to be a fan and realize that there are better players than ours.

The OP has gone to an incredible amount of work to prove his point and I applaud that. There's nothing about this team or any player that would cause me to put that amount of work into anything. My usual response when someone rags on a player is "Oh yeah, says who"? Not into research.

 

[kskboys]

Just so that we have some added context, on the "Barkley does too much east and west movement"

Barkley, despite having a significantly worse run blocking Oline only had 5 more runs for negative yards than Zeke last year.

Barkley had a better run blocking OL. It's already been posted. Uhoh.

 

[CouchCoach]

Barkley had a better run blocking OL. It's already been posted. Uhoh.

According to whom? PFF had the Cowboys at 9th without Yosemite, 2nd with him. The Giants didn't crack the top 10.

And from the news doesn't get any better department, the Eagles ranked 1st and have added Jordan Howard.

So, the fact that the Cowboys had the 9th ranked OL and the 1st in yards RB speaks pretty highly of the young impetuous Elliott.

And y'all can have whoever you want but if I have my choice, Elliott is not #1. But then again, if he had been used more like Kamara, my 2nd pick, he might be #1.

And it remains to be seen how Kellen the Young will use him but I would hope he would use both Elliott and Pollard in the pass game more than Linehan did.

 

[kskboys]

According to whom? PFF had the Cowboys at 9th without Yosemite, 2nd with him. The Giants didn't crack the top 10.

And from the news doesn't get any better department, the Eagles ranked 1st and have added Jordan Howard.

So, the fact that the Cowboys had the 9th ranked OL and the 1st in yards RB speaks pretty highly of the young impetuous Elliott.

And y'all can have whoever you want but if I have my choice, Elliott is not #1. But then again, if he had been used more like Kamara, my 2nd pick, he might be #1.

And it remains to be seen how Kellen the Young will use him but I would hope he would use both Elliott and Pollard in the pass game more than Linehan did.

Whomever posted it earlier!!!!!!

Cowboys were not great at run blocking last season, and I blame at least part of it on the scheme. Linny has never been able to run the ball all that consistently w/o an OL littered w/ top talent.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

According to whom? PFF had the Cowboys at 9th without Yosemite, 2nd with him. The Giants didn't crack the top 10.

And from the news doesn't get any better department, the Eagles ranked 1st and have added Jordan Howard.

So, the fact that the Cowboys had the 9th ranked OL and the 1st in yards RB speaks pretty highly of the young impetuous Elliott.

And y'all can have whoever you want but if I have my choice, Elliott is not #1. But then again, if he had been used more like Kamara, my 2nd pick, he might be #1.

And it remains to be seen how Kellen the Young will use him but I would hope he would use both Elliott and Pollard in the pass game more than Linehan did.

As well as footballoitsiders having the 8th best run blocking line, and the Giants 29th.

UHOH

 

[CouchCoach]

Whomever posted it earlier!!!!!!

Cowboys were not great at run blocking last season, and I blame at least part of it on the scheme. Linny has never been able to run the ball all that consistently w/o an OL littered w/ top talent.

Oh, you are pulling the "previous poster as a source" trick. Well played.

 

[kskboys]

As well as footballoitsiders having the 8th best run blocking line, and the Giants 29th.

UHOH

Hey, not me!!!! I watched the Cowboys games, and saw EZ get met in the backfield a disproportionate number of times. Esp against the Rams in the playoffs. Wonder if the Gnats had a better scheme than the crapp we tried?

 

[PoetTree]

Barkley, despite having a significantly worse run blocking Oline only had 5 more runs for negative yards than Zeke last year.

PFF rated the Giants' line @ 14 overall in terms of run-blocking.

They rated Dallas @ 18.

Saquon Barkley did not have significantly worse run-blocking. In fact, he had better run-blocking then Zeke. Elliott also faced a higher loaded-box percentage than Saquon. Which puts the fact that Barkley more negative runs in proper perspective...

 

[kskboys]

Last year? Tough to say. Overall, probably close to a push.

Remember that the Cowboys fired their offensive line coach at the midpoint of the season because things were. not. working. It didn't help that Zack Martin, our rock, badly sprained his MCL early in the season, kept playing at less than 100%, and aggravated the injury no less than three times during the season --ultimately forcing him to miss the first game of his career.

When he came off the field we welded undersized & under-strong Connor Williams at his RG spot, had Joe Looney at center, and 3rd-stringer Adam Redmond at LG.

Ezekiel Elliott ground out 113 yards in that contest; and it was that kind of crew for much of the season. Travis Frederick was missing all year. Tyron battled pectoral & biceps problems and Cam Fleming replaced him numerous times and for at least one whole game. Connor Williams was getting steamrolled. And Su'a-Filo, who had the strength to win in the run-game, kept missing games due to injury himself. The Dallas line was patchwork all season, right down to their coach...

But as for rankings, Pro Football Focus ranks Dallas' line @ 14 & the Giants' @ 21. But that's overall rankings and New York's weakness was pass-protection. When ranked by run-blocking alone, it's the Giants who come in @ 14 & Dallas @ 18.

As PFF says: 'Connor Williams and Joe Looney both earned grades under 60.0 last season.' Which is... not good.

When coupled with the fact that Zeke received even poorer blocking from the 3rd-string tight-end crew we had rotationally starting --seriously, watch the film: our tight-ends were getting Elliott KILLED-- I think it might be generous to suggest that the blocking for each back was a push. But I digress....




Well, I'm going to answer your question in a relevantly re-contextualized way. Because it's not about who the "better" quarterback is, it's about how defenses played the running game in response to the quarterback; and while there's no doubt I'd take Dak over Eli, there's also no question that teams respected the veteran's ability to make the right read and hit the open man more than they did/do against Dak.

Zeke Elliott faced the highest loaded-box percentage of all the top-5 rushers, and one of the very highest in all the league --including when stacked up against 3rd-down & goal-line specialists. Defenses came to take away Zeke week-in & week-out. And we didn't even have a #1 receiver for squads to worry about for half the season. Even after that, defenses did not adjust their game-plan and #21 remained the key to Dallas' success or lack thereof...

Check this quote from Landon Collins last year:

“We really just have to focus on stopping Zeke. We need to make sure we’re playing our gap assignments and make sure we take the air out of their running game. Put the ball into Dak’s hands & I think we have a better shot at winning.”

Defenses played the Cowboys that way all season long.




Dak: 356-of-526 for 3,885 yards, 22 TDs, 8 Ints, 7.4 yards-per-completion

Eli: 380-of-576 for 4,299 yards, 21 TDs, 11 Ints, 7.5 yards-per-completion

Dak was more efficient.

Eli was more prolific.




I think the answers to the last two questions basically answer this one.

To address it more specifically: Saquon had more carries on 2nd-&-short, Zeke had more on 3rd-&-short. But it's the efficiency leading up to those "short" situations that my original post was aimed at fleshing out, so to speak...

On 1st-down, Barkley had: 157-carries for 739-yards, a 4.71-YPC average.

Conversely, Ezekiel had: 172-carries for 872-yards, a 5.07-YPC average.

Zeke was the better, more efficient runner on 1st-down, which is prevalently a run-down & when rushers are more likely to face a loaded-box. Again, Zeke faced more of those (and produced better against) than any other top-5 rusher in the league.

But in the spirit of my original post, and to highlight specifically who was the better runner across the broader number of carries (which was the point), if we subtract their single longest 1st-down run from the season this stat tells a more intricate story. Minus the yardage from that one run by them each, their 1st-down rushing stats become:

Saquon: 661-yards @ 4.23 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel: 831-yards @ 4.85 yards-per-carry

Zeke's yards-per-carry advantage over Barkley increases from an 0.36 average to 0.62 --nearly doubling. What does that mean? It means that over the greater number of carries, Zeke was consistently the bigger producer. When you take literally one "big-play" from them each, the disparity is almost twice as large.

The point of my post was to empirically demonstrate that Saquon Barkley, while incredible, is a back who lives or dies by the big-play and isn't as dominant on a down-to-down basis as Ezekiel Elliott. He may, indeed, be better at hitting the big-play with greater frequency, but his production outside of those statistically infrequent occasions can genuinely be considered pedestrian.

Again, I only subtracted 16 runs from a total of 261 he had on the season. That represents just 6.1% of his runs from 2018, but that 6% of his runs accounted for more than 40% of his total rushing yards --which is why, minus those 16 runs, his average drops from 5.0 to 3.19 yards-per-carry; hardly pro-bowl caliber.

The point was to make the case, in the face of those naming Barkley as the best back in the league, that the "excitement" he generates as a runner with his slippery, sliding, elusive style --does not equate to him being the league's best rusher, a title I believe rightly belongs to the back who has led the NFL in yards-per-game for 3 years straight & is literally on a Hall-of-Fame pace in that metric.

This superior proficiency by Zeke is demonstrated further when looking into their 4th-quarter stats when leading by 8+, a time when everyone knows the offense is running the ball and loads up to stop them:

Barkley: 39-carries for 123-yards @ 3.15 yards-per-carry

Elliott: 37-carries for 160-yards @ 4.32 yards-per-carry

Once again, if we subtract their lone longest run from that situational stat (merely to proffer my original point that Barkley is largely a "big-play" back, not a truly dominant every-down rusher) the disparity widens once more:

Saquon: 38-carries for 55-yards @ 1.44 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel: 36-carries for 137-yards @ 3.80 yards-per-carry


This basic premise can be proven when comparing virtually every single one of their stats. As I alluded in my original post, I had previously written a missive that broke down ALL of their stats --including receptions & total yards-- and this same trend can be found across all metrics, dating back to their collegiate careers.




I think you're being melodramatic.

The context is not severely lacking, it's plainly stated throughout. My argument is that Zeke is a better every-down back than Barkley & I used empirical evidence to represent the factuality of that premise. I'm not propping anyone up or putting anyone down. I'm agnostically presenting statistics that reveal a deeper story than 16 "big-plays" can tell.





I removed Zeke's big runs as well. It was an equal evaluation, designed simply to demonstrate which runner is more productive across the larger number of carries and the more varied set of circumstances. The answer is Elliott, by a lot.

That you find those stats insulting to Saquon, rather proves my point.


Cheers!

Right here, guys!!!

PFF has Dall run blocking at 18 and the Gnats run blocking at 14.

Seeeeeee, all you gotta do is find the rating service that supports your agenda!!!!!!!!