Saquon mania vs. Ezekiel facts

[kskboys]

Oh, you are pulling the "previous poster as a source" trick. Well played.

You are conveniently forgetting how lazy I am!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[John813]

PFF rated the Giants' line @ 14 overall in terms of run-blocking.

They rated Dallas @ 18.

Saquon Barkley did not have significantly worse run-blocking. In fact, he had better run-blocking then Zeke. Elliott also faced a higher loaded-box percentage than Saquon. Which puts the fact that Barkley more negative runs in proper perspective...

PFF also rated Zeke as the 30th best RB.


https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...as-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade
We use a Massey-type rating system using PFF run-blocking and run-defense grades to adjust our play-by-play grading by opponent and rank offensive lines in run blocking (they are what help Mike Renner createlists like these). The last three seasons, the Cowboys offensive line has ranked fourth, second and sixth, respectively.

While offensive line rankings correlate well (r = 0.52) with EPA per running play, the Cowboys actually performed worse than would be suggested by their offensive line, finishing 12th in EPA generated as an offense per run play (-0.06 per). The Cowboys offense averaged -0.02 EPA per Zeke run (-0.04 if you count playoffs), which is still lower than one would expect with an offensive line that effective.

 

[Fletch]

Well, the Cowboys record was 10-6 with a playoff win.

The Giants went 5-11 & lost their final game of the season WITH Barkley against a Cowboys team that was sitting Zeke. Barkley's stats from that game?

17-carries for 109-yards @ 6.4 yards-per-carry

But again, if you take away his long run of 68-yards --one play on an entire day of plays-- Saquon's "day" looked like:

16-carries for 41-yards @ 2.56 yards-per-carry

Giants lost the game in part because they couldn't control the clock, convert 3rd-downs, or wear our defense out. Furthermore, Barkley's second-longest run that day was a 26-yarder. This means on just 2 runs Barkley produced 94-of-his-109 yards on the day, or over 86% of his production on the ground. On only 2 runs.

That is very Barry Sanders-esque.

It serves to give him nice stats at the end of the day, and certainly it displays his explosiveness; no one is trying to take that away from him. But in a game with over 70-plays, to produce meaningfully on only 2 of them is really not that great & does not contribute greatly to your team's overall success --no matter how dynamic you might look on those two plays.

Outside of those two plays, Dallas owned Barkley that day.

Subtract those two plays from his totals & his stats become:

15-carries for 15-yards @ 1.0 yards-per-carry

Yes, I know he earned those extra 94-yards. Yes, I recognize the talent that allowed him to reel off those 26 & 68-yarders. Barkley has eye-popping athleticism and he's going to put together an impressive highlight-reel over the course of his career. But thus far, he hasn't figured out how to 'consistently' produce in meaningful ways for his team's success.

For instance, how did the Rams beat us in the playoffs?

They controlled the clock & wore out our defense by running the ball down our throats! Consistently. Over & over again. They bludgeoned us to death in a way that Saquon Barkley did not and/or could not in that last game of the season, which was basically the Giants' Super Bowl. You know they wanted to close the year by handing the NFC East champs a loss going into the playoffs.

So let's compare C.J. Anderson's playoff performance against us to Barkley's:

23-carries for 123-yards @ 5.3 yards-per-carry

Now if you take away Anderson's long run from that game, his stats become:

22-carries for 108-yards @ 4.9 yards-per-carry

And if you take away Anderson's second-longest run from that game?

21-carries for 96-yards @ 4.57 yards-per-carry


Do you get my point?


I'm not suggesting that C.J. Anderson is more talented than Barkley. But my observation has been, and the statistics demonstrate, dating back to his college production, that something about Barkley's style --East-to-West too much of the time, I think, too much shifting & sliding and not enough direct upfield intention-- fails to produce consistently meaningful yardage for his teams.

C.J. Anderson produced for the Rams that day on almost all of his carries. He gave them chunks of positive yardage virtually every time they handed him the ball. He found the creases, he took the yards that were there, and he used his body to grind out extra yards when there wasn't much there. They won.

Barkley, on the other hand, across 88% of his carries, did basically jack-squat for the Giants. And they lost. Even with Zeke sitting on the bench.

Saquon had impressive production on the season. But when you take a closer look at 'how' that production was achieved, you see it wasn't in a way that aided his team in winning a lot of contests. By my assessment, he had very few "complete" games wherein he dominated across a high percentage of his snaps. Rather, he averaged 32.75 yards-per-carry on just 16 handoffs over 16 games, while averaging a paltry 3.19 yards-per-carry across the remaining 245 carries.

There is absolutely a correlation between consistency and winning in the NFL.

Just as C.J. Anderson & the Rams schooled us about in the playoffs.

No one in the NFL gets the consistent yards, the dirty yards, the necessary yards for their team's success like Ezekiel Elliott. Under adverse conditions. When the defense is loading the box. When it's the difference between winning & losing.

Barkley produced an inordinate number of "big-plays", mostly out of passing formations, that didn't consistently allow his team to control the field.

This is what my original post was aimed at fleshing out and why I say that Barkley, despite his immense talent, isn't in the same class as Zeke just yet, if in fact he ever will be. Dating back to college, he never has been...

There really should be a mercy rule at The Zone. Those trying to poke holes in this are failing miserably. Ty PT for the post.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Which was the outlier?

His 78 yard rush?
His 68 yard rush?
His other 68 yard rush?
Or his three 50+ yard rushes?

At some point you have to understand they aren't outliers.

Now look at the other 95% of his rushes, their variance, and get back to me. All you show is that you have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No it’s not. Because your adjustment is intentionally handicapping Saquon’s clear talent superiority in specific areas over Zeke. So your adjustment is to avoid those so you can show where Zeke is superior only.

All you are doing here is describing is how the isolation demonstrates the argument to be true.

Again, no one is denying that Barkley is superior as a big play guy. This exercise isolates the rest of their games.

 

[speedkilz88]

If Tony Pollard was the rb in question would people take it better. Because by reputation he's a big play guy that many question if he can run between the tackles effectively. We should probably expect him to have a lot of 2 yard carries and one big play that makes his day look great.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Now look at the other 95% of his rushes, their variance, and get back to me. All you show is that you have no idea what you are talking about.

No what I've shown is that you have no idea what you're talking about, again.

 

[HungryLion]

Again,

Saquon is a better home run threat than Zeke. He is faster and more explosive in the open field.

Zeke is a better short yardage/power runner between the tackles. He is also more consistent down after down.

It’s obvious from watching them play. Whether it’s a good idea to manipulate stats or not. The numbers either way, bare these truths out.

So I’m not sure why this thread needs to be a major argument.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No what I've shown is that you have no idea what you're talking about, again.

Love the personal angst.

Your problem is you do not explain yourself nor demonstrate any competence as to what the variance of the rest of the data set I discuss means.

I do like the Pee Wee Herman attempt tho.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Not sure what this proves other than Barkley is almost guaranteed a home run every game. I would love to have one of those up my sleeve in a tight game where the running game is struggling.

 

[CouchCoach]

Again,

Saquon is a better home run threat than Zeke. He is faster and more explosive in the open field.

Zeke is a better short yardage/power runner between the tackles. He is also more consistent down after down.

It’s obvious from watching them play. Whether it’s a good idea to manipulate stats or not. The numbers either way, bare these truths out.

So I’m not sure why this thread needs to be a major argument.

Add to this Elliott is a Cowboy and Barkley is a Giant and there's no trade rumor so what's the point at all?

DP, every thread has to be a major argument. I started one about not using the H word any longer and that brought about arguments. I've yet to see the thread that can't create arguments and one titled "This thread is about not arguing" would bring the most.

 

[CouchCoach]

Not sure what this proves other than Barkley is almost guaranteed a home run every game. I would love to have one of those up my sleeve in a tight game where the running game is struggling.

And Barkley is the most feared RB in the league with putting that 8th man in the box.

 

[Future]

PFF rated the Giants' line @ 14 overall in terms of run-blocking.

They rated Dallas @ 18.

Saquon Barkley did not have significantly worse run-blocking. In fact, he had better run-blocking then Zeke. Elliott also faced a higher loaded-box percentage than Saquon. Which puts the fact that Barkley more negative runs in proper perspective...

The Cowboys' blocking was fine enough, it's the loaded boxes that were the problem.

When Dallas couldn't complete a pass for more than 5 yards before Amari, teams had absolutely free reign to overload the box. Everybody gets hung up on 8 in the box, but the reality is that, with the amount of 3WR packages teams run, 7 in the box has the same effect. The Cowboys constantly ran against defenses that had more defenders than blockers.

 

[xwalker]

Listen, I get it, Saquon Barkley is a freak athlete, a really nice guy, and a big-play waiting to happen. I think he proved himself as the best big-play specialist in the NFL last year and I suspect that will continue into 2019. But, as I have been for this very same reason since he was in college, I'm tapping the brakes on crowning him the best running back in the league --as much of the rest of the sports world is already doing.

I did a breakdown after the season, as I had done for their respective college seasons before Barkley went pro, detailing what their stats look like when you subtract their single biggest run or play from each game of a singular season. Just one per contest. The results, factoring in receptions as well, confirmed my observation that Barkley is a back who lives & dies by the big-play --but is not the every-down runner yet (including collegiately) that you expect a "great" to be.

For this missive, I'll focus only on their rushing totals --although it's equally applicable to their receiving stats as well. But I've got a buddy who says, "Zeke is the best guy in the league to just turn around & hand the ball to." I think this breakdown demonstrates that quite clearly.

So, for posterity, Zeke & Saquon's "rushing" totals for 2018 were:


Saquon Barkley -- 261 carries, 1,307 yards, 5.0 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel Elliott -- 304 carries, 1,434 yards, 4.7 yards-per-carry


However, when you subtract their single biggest run from each game (as I've done for the following stats), this comparison turns very different:


Saquon Barkley -- 245 carries, 783 yards, 3.19 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel Elliott -- 289 carries, 1,199 yards, 4.14 yards-per-carry


The disparity is astonishing. Remove just 16 runs from Barkley's season (out of 261) and he drops a *WHOPPING* 524 yards from his total! Conversely, when you take away Zeke's longest run from each game, his total drops only 235 yards.

To put it another way:

Saquon averaged 32.75 yards on only 16 carries of the season.

And he averaged 3.19 yards-per-carry over the remaining 245!

Over the course of the season, without those 16 "long" runs Barkley's average plummets from a robust 5.0 to a paltry 3.19 per-carry (almost 2 full yards less). Zeke, on the other hand, minus his best run from each contest, falls from a 4.7-yard average to a still respectable 4.14 yards-per-carry.

For even greater perspective, if you subtract Elliott's best run from every game he still would have finished 3rd in the league in rushing. When you take away Barkley's longest runs, however, he drops from 2nd in the league in rushing all the way down to 23rd --

That is a precipitous plummet!


But while I believe those stats alone clearly distinguish Zeke as the better runner on a down-to-down basis, by a lot, and likewise demonstrate Barkley as the better big-play back, it's not until it's broken down on a game-by-game basis that the vivid difference in their contributions to their team's offensive success becomes perfectly clear. So we're going to take a more microcosmic look at this parallel to bear out the conclusion that Ezekiel Elliott remains, quite simply, the very best running back in the NFL.


So the way I'll do this for greatest visual appeal is to list their rushing totals per-week MINUS both back's single biggest run from each game. The effect is really quite eye-popping:


Week 1 --

Saquon: 17 carries, 38 yards, 2.23 YPC

Ezekiel: 14 carries, 52 yards, 3.71 YPC


Week 2 --

Saquon: 10 carries, 18 yards, 1.80 YPC

Ezekiel: 16 carries, 59 yards, 3.68 YPC


Week 3 --

Saquon: 16 carries, 58 yards, 3.62 YPC

Ezekiel: 15 carries, 101 yards, 6.73 YPC


Week 4 --

Saquon: 9 carries, 16 yards, 1.77 YPC

Ezekiel: 24 carries, 111 yards, 4.62 YPC


Week 5 --

Saquon: 14 carries, 18 yards, 1.28 YPC

Ezekiel: 19 carries, 40 yards, 2.10 YPC


Week 6 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 80 yards, 6.66 YPC

Ezekiel: 23 carries, 85 yards, 3.69 YPC


Week 7 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 28 yards, 2.15 YPC

Ezekiel: 14 carries, 27 yards, 1.92 YPC


Week 8 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 29 yards, 2.41 YPC

Ezekiel: 16 carries, 44 yards, 2.75 YPC


Week 9 --

Saquon: 19 carries, 49 yards, 2.57 YPC

Ezekiel: 18 carries, 116 yards, 6.44 YPC


Week 10 --

Saquon: 26 carries, 119 yards, 4.57 YPC

Ezekiel: 22 carries, 99 yards, 4.50 YPC


Week 11 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 50 yards, 4.16 YPC

Ezekiel: 25 carries, 105 yards, 4.20 YPC


Week 12 --

Saquon: 23 carries, 96 yards, 4.17 YPC

Ezekiel: 22 carries, 54 yards, 2.45 YPC


Week 13 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 92 yards, 7.07 YPC

Ezekiel: 27 carries, 93 yards, 3.44 YPC


Week 14 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 14 yards, 1.07 YPC

Ezekiel: 17 carries, 63 yards, 3.70 YPC


Week 15 --

Saquon: 20 carries, 37 yards, 1.85 YPC

Ezekiel: 17 carries, 68 yards, 4.00 YPC


Week 16 --

Saquon: 16 carries, 41 yards, 2.56 YPC

Ezekiel: Did-Not-Play


So out of 15 games, side-by-side, subtracting their single longest runs from each contest, Zeke had a higher yards-per-carry than Saquon in 10 of those contests, outpacing Barkley by an average of: 1.48, 1.88, 3.11, 2.85, 0.82, 0.34, 3.87, 0.04, 2.63, and 2.16 yards-per-carry.

Accumulatively, those 10 games amount to --


Saquon: 142 carries, 469 yards, 3.30 YPC

Ezekiel: 168 carries, 759 yards, 4.51 YPC


Minus their one longest run from each of those games, it's clear that Zeke was the far more productive, effective, consistent back across 2/3rds of the season and a vaster number of carries. Conversely, in the 5 games Barkley outdid Zeke, the stats are:


Saquon: 87 carries, 415 yards, 4.77 YPC

Ezekiel: 108 carries, 358 yards, 3.61 YPC


So for 5 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Saquon averaged 1.16 yards-per-carry more than Zeke --out-rushing him by 57 yards across those 5 games.

For 10 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Zeke averaged 1.20 yards-per-carry more than Saquon --out-rushing him by 290 yards across those 10 games.

Over the course of the season, minus their big runs, that amounts to 457 more rushing yards for Zeke and nearly 1 full yard-per-carry (0.95) greater.


If we pit their 16th game of the season against one another (Week 16 for Saquon, Week 1 of the Playoffs for Zeke), again, subtracting their single biggest run from each game --


Saquon: 16 carries, 41 yards, 2.56 YPC

Ezekiel: 25 carries, 93 yards, 3.72 YPC


Consistently, Elliott demonstrates that he is the more productive runner, by quite a bit, across the far broader number and circumstances of their respective carries. Barkley may indeed be the better home-run hitter. But there's no question that Zeke is out there getting the dirty yards, the needed yards, Saquon is leaving on the field; and the fortunes of their teams in 2018 each reflect the natural result of that:


RECORDS --

Cowboys: 10-6

Giants: 5-11


This is also assessed in the fact that Zeke picked up 73 first-downs, to Saquon's 50, in one fewer game.

That's 69 more downs of offense that Zeke's legs provided for his team than Barkley did for his.


Saquon had 5 more runs of 20+ yards than Zeke (16-to-11) & 6 more runs of 40+ yards (7-to-1).

Which do you think a coach who wants to win would prefer, 11 more "explosive" plays on the season, or 69 more offensive snaps? And this whole query instantly makes me think of Emmitt Smith vs. Barry Sanders, because like I predicted before the season, the Zeke/Saquon rivalry is shaping up very much like the old debate between those greats!

Saquon, like Sanders (his idol), is the best big-play threat in the league.

Ezekiel, like Emmitt, is the best running back in the league.


Of course, this contest isn't remotely over. But in all the metrics we can currently assess, college & the pros, this is who these backs have proven themselves to be, consistently. It's extraordinary how much their college production mirrors their NFL performances. I strongly suspect this will continue, and I don't think we've seen either of their bests.

Athletically, this season should display the very best Ezekiel Elliott the world has ever seen. He is now a young 23 years old and is likely fully grown. Word is he's in the best shape of his life, has gone from 225lbs. in his rookie year (when he was the youngest player in the league) to a manly 230lbs. this offseason.

I believe we're about to see the biggest, strongest, and fastest Ezekiel Elliott there has ever been.

And it might just be a perfect storm regarding the physical maturation of his ability being paired with all the talent surrounding him. There's no question in my mind that Zeke is coming into the best situation for a running back in the NFL to produce at a big-time level. Barkley is certain to have more than 15-minutes of fame. But when, not if, Elliott leads the NFL in rushing again, maybe to unprecedented degrees, people are going to have to start acknowledging that #21 is the #1 runner in the league.


--yeah, even if Barkley has more "big-plays" on the season.

Take those away, and Barkley is over 40% less of a running back.

Kid's got to show me some things before he's in the same breath with Zeke...

Good work!

The issue is that I don't know how much big plays correlate to winning.

Some people think that 1 big play per game has huge value.


It's similar to how starting CBs play over a thousand snaps per season but are often judged by INTs; however, a really good number is 7 INTs in a season.

Where is the cut-off with CBs on the value of the 1000+ snaps where they didn't get an INT vs the less than 10 snaps where they did get an INT?

I really don't know the answer for CBs and I don't know for RBs.


My "gut feel" is that a RBs value is more about how much focus defenses put on them at the expensive of pass defense as opposed to the actual stats that RBs accumulate. Obviously defensive focus and stats tend to correlate over a complete season; however, maybe not necessarily on a per game basis. Two RBs that face the same defense might both have 75 rushing yards, but 1 RB might have faced and extra man in the box which means his QB/WRs benefited more than the other RBs QB/WRs.

Emmitt vs Barry Sanders

Sanders was the dynamic big play RB.
Emmitt was the best option for winning Super Bowls.​

Summary:
Both Zeke and Barkley are more than good enough for their teams to win Super Bowls.

The one that stays healthy and avoids suspensions is the one with the most value.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Love the personal angst.

Your problem is you do not explain yourself nor demonstrate any competence as to what the variance of the rest of the data set I discuss means.

I do like the Pee Wee Herman attempt tho.

What's funny is that you don't understand that outliers lie outside the 3rd sigma of a data set, in which 2.3% of his runs being 40+ yards makes them a non-outlier. These runs occur 8 times more often than outliers even.



Just take your L again

Barkley had the 3rd most 40+ yard plays in a season ever. Only behind one of Sanders seasons and Chris Johnsons career year. Calling it a skill instead of qk outlier would be the smart thing to dozl, but you're not exactly a smart thing kinda guy.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

What's funny is that you don't understand that outliers lie outside the 3rd sigma of a data set, in which 2.3% of his runs being 40+ yards makes them a non-outlier. These runs occur 8 times more often than outliers even.



Just take your L again

Barkley had the 3rd most 40+ yard plays in a season ever. Only behind one of Sanders seasons and Chris Johnsons career year. Calling it a skill instead of qk outlier would be the smart thing to dozl, but you're not exactly a smart thing kinda guy.

That is not how you determine standard deviation much less triple it. Your google foo failed, try again.

and again, no one is denying Barkley is an elite big play guy but keep waving your hands thinking it makes a difference.

 

[aria]

Nice post but no mention of the immense difference in O lines.

 

[PoetTree]

And Barkley is the most feared RB in the league with putting that 8th man in the box.

Zeke faced a higher percentage of 8-man fronts than Barkley did.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

That is not how you determine standard deviation much less triple it. Your google foo failed, try again.

and again, no one is denying Barkley is an elite big play guy but keep waving your hands thinking it makes a difference.

Where did I even mention that? Lmao
Your reading failed you

You dont think big plays make a difference? Yikes

 

[CouchCoach]

Zeke faced a higher percentage of 8-man fronts than Barkley did.

25% to 23% isn't a huge difference. Why not compare Henry's at 32% with a better ypc and double the TD's of Elliott? And it's not like Elliott didn't see the ball in the red and gold zones.

But let's make excuses for Elliott with the OL and coaching or whatever else posters can muster up because he's a Cowboy.

You give all 32 GM's and HC's their choice of RBs, do you think Elliott would come in 1st? I don't think he would come in any better than 4th.