3-5 is about right. Not sure I can name a team that contends for a super bowl w/ any regularity who has paid a non-top 5 QB as a top 5 QB.
Right now, these teams contend a lot:
KC: Top 5 QB
SF: Not overpaying QB.
Philly: QB coming off rook deal, debeateable whether he's top 5.
Cincy: Top 5 QB.
BUFF: Top 5 QB.
And you can list the teams who paid their non top 5 QB top 5 money that aren't contending for a super bowl, although of course that could change: ARI, MINN, BALT, DEN, CLEV, NYG. Did I miss anyone? Herbert is yet to be seen.
So, a very simple analysis shows that paying a non-top 5 QB like a top 5 QB keeps you from contending. Sure, there are one year wonders now and then, but mostly when you overpay your QB, you are doomed to mediocrity w/ your ceiling being losing in the first/second round of playoffs. Hey, maybe DALL can break that trend!!!!
This the whole point though. It’s not realistic to think only 3-5 guys will get paid. That’s not sports.
We can cry all we want but at the end of the day teams pay QB’s who can make them competitive.
Also, all these teams also have great rosters and coaching staffs. I’d argue Buffalo has been regressing since their AFCCG and that San Fran can “contend” all they want but with marginal QB talent will be hard pressed to win anything.
Every team you named outside of KC will face the same issue as their guy is paid. Cincy will lose players and so will Buffalo. Philly already has. These QB’s won’t be able to “contend” without top flight rosters and coaching, they are no different than the next crop of QB’s in the 6-10 range.
Only Mahomes has shown the ability to take spare parts on offense and win a SB. Burrow was close with his OL but his weaponry and defense were top notch.
Paying ANY qb not named Mahomes makes contending difficult. That’s why winning a championship is so hard. It’s the FO job to work the salary cap and draft to stock the roster while ensuring the coaching staff is up to standard.
You’ll get 1, maybe 2 guys a generation who can do what Pat does. Everyone else needs a full team and staff. Let’s stop trying to make it easy on FO’s. Teams have to learn to win with QB salaries and they will.
A top 5 QB on a rookie deal is obviously the easiest way to win. But that’s not an opportunity most of the league gets. You’re not going to see 27 NFL teams refuse to pay QB while cycling through picks to find a HOFer. The NFL is a business, teams will pay top dollar for competitive QB play. It’s their job to build around it.
The Saints did this in the late stages of Brees career when he was not close to being top 5 but was still getting market value. Manipulate the cap and figure ish out. Draft well and employ a quality staff. Being a lazy FO and hoping to hit on an all-timer is not a real plan for action.