Twitter: Scott Pioli, former NFL GM, three major consequences of 2021 projected cap decrease

[Future]

I don't understand how you believe that.

The cap is determined by several revenue streams. Streams like television deals and ticket sales being the highest revenue sources for NFL owners.

All (or most) network deals are in place for the next couple of years. Ticket sales were expected to see a significant decline.

There was no way the cap was going to see an increase. A decrease in the salary cap was basically a guarantee for the 2021 season.

I didn't say it was going to see an increase. The cap next year has a floor of $175, which means it could stay stagnant, but we don't know if it's going to be $190. We certainly didn't know in July. New network deals take effect in 2023, and the cap is going to blow up. That's the cap element that matters more than anything, and it's not really going to be impacted by the pandemic.

If Dak's number now is $40m at a $200m cap, and the cap only ends up at $175, you're talking about his value still being $36.5m next year. Short term he might've cost himself a couple million, but being a free agent in 2023 has always been the goal, and that's where the 5-year deal would have cost him. That still holds true. And the amount he could potentially have lost if the cap explodes is still way higher than what he might have lost because of how this season has gone.

People also forget that the cap going down doesn't necessarily help owners either. They're going to have to gut rosters or convert so much salary into guaranteed bonus that they're going to see a big hit on their bottom line anyway to get compliant. The Saints are the worst, but they would have to cut something like $100m in salary.

 

[J12B]

I didn't say it was going to see an increase. The cap next year has a floor of $175, which means it could stay stagnant, but we don't know if it's going to be $190. We certainly didn't know in July. New network deals take effect in 2023, and the cap is going to blow up. That's the cap element that matters more than anything, and it's not really going to be impacted by the pandemic.

If Dak's number now is $40m at a $200m cap, and the cap only ends up at $175, you're talking about his value still being $36.5m next year. Short term he might've cost himself a couple million, but being a free agent in 2023 has always been the goal, and that's where the 5-year deal would have cost him. That still holds true. And the amount he could potentially have lost if the cap explodes is still way higher than what he might have lost because of how this season has gone.

Waiting until 2023 is even more of a gamble than waiting for 2021 as we've seen with his injury and how QBs can regress in this league due to either their own problems mechanically or the talent that a QB is surrounded with.

And college QBs are becoming more and more NFL ready straight out of college. They can be seen as a low cost replacement. The Cowboys will most likely be a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft.

In my opinion, it was not a good move by Dak and his agent to not get a deal done and take the guaranteed 100+ million.

 

[cern]

I didn't say it was going to see an increase. The cap next year has a floor of $175, which means it could stay stagnant, but we don't know if it's going to be $190. We certainly didn't know in July. New network deals take effect in 2023, and the cap is going to blow up. That's the cap element that matters more than anything, and it's not really going to be impacted by the pandemic.

If Dak's number now is $40m at a $200m cap, and the cap only ends up at $175, you're talking about his value still being $36.5m next year. Short term he might've cost himself a couple million, but being a free agent in 2023 has always been the goal, and that's where the 5-year deal would have cost him. That still holds true. And the amount he could potentially have lost if the cap explodes is still way higher than what he might have lost because of how this season has gone.

People also forget that the cap going down doesn't necessarily help owners either. They're going to have to gut rosters or convert so much salary into guaranteed bonus that they're going to see a big hit on their bottom line anyway to get compliant. The Saints are the worst, but they would have to cut something like $100m in salary.

The cap will take a hit next year, but will rebound with new tv deal and gambling money. I expect to see some creative contract negotiations for next year with a lot of restructuring the following year.

 

[Sydla]

Crawford will be gone so there’s that.

Crawford is already factored into the cap calculations for next year. If anything, they should have cut him this year to save cap space that they could have rolled into 2021.

Right now, if the cap stands at $176 million, the Cowboys will have around $29 million in cap space (Over The Cap) to around $32 million (Spotrac). But that's before you even get to Dak. If he's tagged, all that space is gone. If he signs a deal, there might still be some cap space available before you get to restructures because they'd likely backload his contract to take a lower initial cap hit to account for the lowered league cap in 2021.

Now if the cap comes in around $195 million, obviously, they have a bit more breathing room.

 

[America's Cowboy]

It was all about the money. He was betting the cap would increase with the new tv deal. He wanted a shorter contract to come back to the table for more money.

Of course. That was part of it. But Dak felt slighted, and justifiably so, when Goff and others were given more guaranteed money for lesser years even though they had put up lesser stats.

 

[Future]

Waiting until 2023 is even more of a gamble than waiting for 2021 as we've seen with his injury and how QBs can regress in this league due to either their own problems mechanically or the talent that a QB is surrounded with.

In my opinion, it was not a good move by Dak and his agent to not get a deal done and take the guaranteed 100+ million.

Easy to say when you don't already have $31m in the bank, and an extra who knows what staring at you.

 

[Future]

The cap will take a hit next year, but will rebound with new tv deal and gambling money. I expect to see some creative contract negotiations for next year with a lot of restructuring the following year.

Yup. I always forget about the gambling aspect too.

I mean, a $350m cap in 2024 I don't think should surprise anybody. 2021 was projected to be something like $220m at one point.

For reference, $40m at a $200m cap is the equivalent of $70m at $350m. It still baffles me that people think Dak should sign at 5x$35. He might be costing himself $40m in 2023.

 

[Jarv]

With a transition tag, the team is not entitled to any compensation if they choose not to match a deal offered by another team.

So, no.

Lol...You got me, I meant the non-exclusive franchise tag.

 

[cowboyblue22]

it really dont matter whether dak signs or not this team is not going any where either way as long a jerry and son are running the show

 

[irishline]

Do you mean Dak?

Because he made that decision long before the pandemic. Hindsight is always easy....

That deal was on the table in July. Didn't realize the pandemic was long after that.

https://www.nfl.com/news/dak-prescott-dallas-cowboys-fail-to-agree-to-long-term-contract-ahead-of-deadlin#:~:text=The deal on the table,the $31.4 million franchise tag.

Nothing was clear in the middle of July, especially as it related to the cap.

And yes the cap decease was discussed early in July. The NFL agreed on the floor minimum drop for 2021 with the NFLPA right after the deadline to sign for tagged players.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/25/several-teams-in-rough-cap-shape-in-2021/

 

[buybuydandavis]

Just my opinion but I'm 100% confident Dak won't see the 2nd tag. First, I'm guessing they BOTH now regret they didn't get the deal done before the July 15 deadline. Remember even Dak admits he would have accepted the last min July offer but they ran out of time. My guess is that offer will still be there and with a few tweaks, Dak will accept it. In other words, there's a ton of motivation on both sides to get the deal done......immediately after the season.

Dak said, after the fact, that he *tried* to make the deal.

But what he did for a year was *not* make the deal. Just good marketing to say "oh gosh, shucks, I tried so hard but couldn't get the deal done in time."

The declining cap may change his mind some. Also, the injury. He may be feeling more motivated to lock in money now.

 

[dogberry]

How are tv ratings doing this year?

 

[Uncle_Hank]

Is it possible to transition tag Dak this offseason and hope that a depressed cap keeps other teams at bay? It seems unlikely to me that a team would offer $40 million a year plus two firsts in a year like 2021. Worst case scenario you end up in a pretty good spot to take one of the top QBs this year.

 

[Brax]

With a transition tag, the team is not entitled to any compensation if they choose not to match a deal offered by another team.

So, no.

I think he means the non exclusive tag, I think it is a good way to go and wish it was done this year then there is no doubt to his worth and they could of saved some $$$ or matched the offer if any.

 

[Mr Cowboy]

Dak will likely sign a backloaded deal, with a low cap number the first year. That's one way to make it work. I just wish there was a way to get rid of high priced, low production players who are not worth the money they are being paid.

 

[CWR]

As stated before, I think Dak's projected contract is already baked into their budget plans.

Agreed and this season only served to solidify that plan.

 

[CWR]

Dak will likely sign a backloaded deal, with a low cap number the first year. That's one way to make it work. I just wish there was a way to get rid of high priced, low production players who are not worth the money they are being paid.

Yeah there a probably a couple that we'd consider biting the bullet on if it wasn't for the shrunken cap. Then again Im not sure this FO can admit to a mistake so "quickly."

 

[DFWJC]

Do you mean Dak?

Because he made that decision long before the pandemic. Hindsight is always easy....

No hindsight at all.
Many, including me, thought it was crazy to pass up all along.
But like I said...not my decision. It was his right to pass.

 

[catiii]

No one should ever pass on that type of money no matter how much you "think" you are worth.

BC then things like Pandemics and broken legs happen.

Shows how immature he was with nothing in his ear but BAD advice.
Pride goeth before the fall.....................

 

[plymkr]

I don't trust the Jones and this Front Office's ability to properly assess and address the talent deficiencies on this roster. They've proven over the last 25 years to constantly ignore glaring needs and a stubbornness in giving multiple chances to players they have anointed (overpaid and overdrafted).

However, one thing I will give the Jones' credit for is what I call "creative financing"

If they can sign Dak to a similarly-structured (but lower) contract to what Mahomes signed and do their typical restructures (Martin, Smith, Collins, Amari, Zeke, etc), they have a real opportunity to add significant talent in both the draft and free agency this off-season.

The issue will be, will they continue to throw money at washed up free agents (HaHa Clinton-Dix, Dontari Poe) or will they sign players who can actually improve the team (Justin Simmons, Dalvin Tomlinson).

Yeah I totally agree with you on this. I am not a Jones family fan and have really grown a pretty strong resentment to them. But one thing I will give them respect for is how they create room and massage the contracts of players to get salary cap money. They are good at that.