Twitter: Scott Pioli, former NFL GM, three major consequences of 2021 projected cap decrease

[Steve007]

It was not the money Dak had a problem with. It was the years.

It was all about the money. He was betting the cap would increase with the new tv deal. He wanted a shorter contract to come back to the table for more money.

 

[jterrell]

With all the uncertainty of That Which Shall Not Be Named, locking in guaranteed money was probably the smart move. I think Henry did that.

Before TWSNBN, the Kirk Cousins path to riches looked like the good move. Now, not so much.

Big question - will the Cowboys even *want* Dak at 38mil? What really hurts about his second franchise tag is that it is a straight 20% increase from *this* year, regardless of how the cap drops next year.

RBs should always lock in money. QBs should not.
The pay at QB has gone up since the pandemic hit.

Dak will make far more than 175-185M when he signs his long term deal.
People who don't realize that are either egregiously unaware or lying to themselves.

 

[J12B]

Do you mean Dak?

Because he made that decision long before the pandemic. Hindsight is always easy....

He had up until the middle of July to make that decision. The pandemic was a few months in and it was clear that fans would not be allowed at games or at a very small capacity.

 

[jterrell]

It was all about the money. He was betting the cap would increase with the new tv deal. He wanted a shorter contract to come back to the table for more money.

Yes, sorta.
It was also about them not extending him earlier.
He would have taken a 6 year deal in 2018(2 of rookie deal bases plus 4 extended), a 5 year deal in 2019 or a 4 deal in 2020.
Dak could very well play hard ball and say I'll only take a 3 year deal in 2021.

He can do this because QBs are too big to fail. The salary for franchise QBs always goes up.

If Dak hits true unrestricted free agency he will be the highest paid QB in football by AAV next year.
NFL teams have plenty of mechanisms to lower year 1 cap hits and plenty to create cap room.

 

[jterrell]

He had up until the middle of July to make that decision. The pandemic was a few months in and it was clear that fans would not be allowed at games or at a very small capacity.

And he chose correctly.

 

[jterrell]

He gave up that contract because of 1 lousy year which tells us what a ******* he is. The amount he would have made would have easily been offset with what his endorsements would have added up to. Total *******.

you are an idiot.

 

[Future]

He had up until the middle of July to make that decision. The pandemic was a few months in and it was clear that fans would not be allowed at games or at a very small capacity.

Nothing was clear in the middle of July, especially as it related to the cap.

 

[Jake]

Do you mean Dak?

Because he made that decision long before the pandemic. Hindsight is always easy....

He had until July 15th to work out a long-term deal. That was four months into the pandemic.

 

[Jake]

Nothing was clear in the middle of July, especially as it related to the cap.

On what planet? Lockdowns began in earnest in March. It doesn't take a crystal ball four months into it to realize even the NFL may be negatively impacted, financially.

Dak's agent screwed the pooch. This wasn't the year to play hardball.

 

[J12B]

Nothing was clear in the middle of July, especially as it related to the cap.

Not true.

It was believed that the cap would decrease based on the high possibility that most games would be played in empty stadiums.

 

[Future]

On what planet? Lockdowns began in earnest in March. It doesn't take a crystal ball four months into it to realize even the NFL may be negatively impacted, financially.

Dak's agent screwed the pooch. This wasn't the year to play hardball.

Nobody knew what impact the pandemic would have on the salary cap. Largely still don't.

 

[J12B]

And he chose correctly.

How so?

There is going to be less money (a considerable amount) to spend next year.

 

[Jarv]

Yes, sorta.
It was also about them not extending him earlier.
He would have taken a 6 year deal in 2018(2 of rookie deal bases plus 4 extended), a 5 year deal in 2019 or a 4 deal in 2020.
Dak could very well play hard ball and say I'll only take a 3 year deal in 2021.

He can do this because QBs are too big to fail. The salary for franchise QBs always goes up.

If Dak hits true unrestricted free agency he will be the highest paid QB in football by AAV next year.
NFL teams have plenty of mechanisms to lower year 1 cap hits and plenty to create cap room.

Great, let's give him the transition tag and let's see what he's worth. We can then either match it or take the 2 1st round picks.

 

[Beaker42]

If this holds, it could create a lot of good/quality players being cut, creating a bonanza 2021 free-agent market/opportunity. It's also why we'll see min 2021 draft trades IMO. Picks are way too valuable, even lower rounds.


https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-s...hree-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease
2021 NFL salary cap conundrum: Three major consequences of projected decrease
Published: Dec 01, 2020 at 07:57 AM

Scott Pioli
NFL Media Analyst

Good. I hope it’s the start of bringing these insane salaries down. No way any of these jamokes should be making what they are. It’s ridiculous.

 

[jterrell]

How so?

There is going to be less money (a considerable amount) to spend next year.

By math.
He's going to make more money.
It seems awfully weird that this board is in some type of weird time warp where reality didn't happen and guys like Mahomes and Watson didn't sign monster deals SINCE the pandemic began AFTER Dak signed his francise tender.

Less money means a guy like Jaylon Smith gets squeezed or cut. It means zero to a starting QB.

 

[Beaker42]

The reality is this team is likely going to be on the side of cutting a productive player than a team that can reap the benefits of other teams having to cut really good players to fit under the cap.

Because when you account for Dak and his tag, we don't have a lot (or any) cap space to play with based on the projected league cap for next year. If he does sign, that probably creates another $10MM or so in space but that's not a lot.

We are likely going to have to restructure some guys to get enough space to fill out a roster. I suspect draft picks are going to be vitally important for roster construction too.

Crawford will be gone so there’s that.

 

[jterrell]

Great, let's give him the transition tag and let's see what he's worth. We can then either match it or take the 2 1st round picks.

With a transition tag, the team is not entitled to any compensation if they choose not to match a deal offered by another team.

So, no.

 

[Fmart322]

Which teams do you think will take it on the chin next year and beyond because of all of this?

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

 

[J12B]

Nobody knew what impact the pandemic would have on the salary cap. Largely still don't.

I don't understand how you believe that.

The cap is determined by several revenue streams. Streams like television deals and ticket sales being the highest revenue sources for NFL owners.

All (or most) network deals are in place for the next couple of years. Ticket sales were expected to see a significant decline.

There was no way the cap was going to see an increase. A decrease in the salary cap was basically a guarantee for the 2021 season.

 

[J12B]

By math.
He's going to make more money.
It seems awfully weird that this board is in some type of weird time warp where reality didn't happen and guys like Mahomes and Watson didn't sign monster deals SINCE the pandemic began AFTER Dak signed his francise tender.

Less money means a guy like Jaylon Smith gets squeezed or cut. It means zero to a starting QB.

Jaylon's deal was done long before the pandemic so his contract is already set and has nothing to do with this conversation.

Dak has no contract next year when the cap will decrease for the first time in 10 years. A significant decrease in comparison to the regular cap increases over the last 9 years straight.

To say that future QB contracts will not be affected by the cap decrease is just simply wrong.