Scouting Notebook: Matt Miller's Final Team-by-Team Reports

[JohnnyHopkins]

They should go for the top player they have on the board. I have my doubts that this team will be able to put it all together during the time that Romo has left, so they should stockpile the best talent that they can for whoever comes next.

 

[Sydla]

care to explain

Explain what?

The Cowboys (Jerry was quoted a few times) were pretty clear two years ago that they simply did not feel they needed to invest a lot of money and resources into the TB position because of the OL they were building and the fact that they had data that teams simply don't get what they put into the tailback position. That TBs tend to take more of a beating than other positions and the Cowboys simply did not feel it was wise to invest a lot of money into the position. They drew the line in the sand with Murray at $12MM guaranteed. They inquired about Lamar Miller this current offseason but bowed out after his price tag was around $14MM in guaranteed money.

To take Elliott at 4, they'd now be paying him $25MM in guaranteed money. The moment he's picked at 4, he'd be one of the ten highest paid TBs in football.

So in doing so, they'd very clearly be deviating from their stated plan that they don't believe they need to invest a lot of money nor do they really want to invest a lot of money into the TB position.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Explain what?

The Cowboys (Jerry was quoted a few times) were pretty clear two years ago that they simply did not feel they needed to invest a lot of money and resources into the TB position because of the OL they were building and the fact that they had data that teams simply don't get what they put into the tailback position. That TBs tend to take more of a beating than other positions and the Cowboys simply did not feel it was wise to invest a lot of money into the position. They drew the line in the sand with Murray at $12MM guaranteed. They inquired about Lamar Miller this current offseason but bowed out after his price tag was around $14MM in guaranteed money.

To take Elliott at 4, they'd now be paying him $25MM in guaranteed money. The moment he's picked at 4, he'd be one of the ten highest paid TBs in football.

So in doing so, they'd very clearly be deviating from their stated plan that they don't believe they need to invest a lot of money nor do they really want to invest a lot of money into the TB position.

This is a really, really good point. I had actually come to think that Elliot was the pick, based on the amount of smoke surrounding him. But this notion and the conference changed my mind.

They have shown at every step of the way that RB was a low priority position the last few years. They passed on Murray and other high priced options last off-season. They passed on the position in the draft last year. They passed on high priced options this year. That, and Jones flat out said this last year, when talking about Murray:
"We have great receivers. We have a great quarterback. We have a great offensive line," Jones said. "We're trying to get more defense so you have to make some tough decisions. "

If they draft Elliott, they will have had a drastic change of philosophy. I bet they do love Zeke, and I don't doubt that Jerry is capable of such 180s. But he's followed the process lately, and the process to this point clearly didn't entail investing the biggest liquid asset in 25 years on a RB.

 

[jnday]

It goes against everything they've said about their intentions to this point.

Not only would they be overpaying at running back - to a rookie no less - but they would be giving up the #4 overall pick for the right to overpay.

They would show everyone that they screwed up by not paying for a proven back in free agency for less guaranteed money when a guy like Lamar Miller was begging to come here.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

I don't see nothing wrong with drafting and paying a top RB. The offense needs an upgrade over the garbage that they currently have. I don't see the greatness in Zeke that I saw in Bo Jackson , H. Walker, etc, but maybe it's there. If their plan is to continue with scrub RBs, it is a bad one and I hope they change it.

 

[waving monkey]

Explain what?

The Cowboys (Jerry was quoted a few times) were pretty clear two years ago that they simply did not feel they needed to invest a lot of money and resources into the TB position because of the OL they were building and the fact that they had data that teams simply don't get what they put into the tailback position. That TBs tend to take more of a beating than other positions and the Cowboys simply did not feel it was wise to invest a lot of money into the position. They drew the line in the sand with Murray at $12MM guaranteed. They inquired about Lamar Miller this current offseason but bowed out after his price tag was around $14MM in guaranteed money.

To take Elliott at 4, they'd now be paying him $25MM in guaranteed money. The moment he's picked at 4, he'd be one of the ten highest paid TBs in football.

So in doing so, they'd very clearly be deviating from their stated plan that they don't believe they need to invest a lot of money nor do they really want to invest a lot of money into the TB position.

I believe public statement releases can be viewed from several positions.
Those statements were during the brief era of D.Murray's bruising 2014 season
were he got used up in many estimations. He was offered a 6M per year contract
but Philly in Chips wisdom offered more .That period of PR was relative to that period.
Not saying that there isnt a trend toward devaluing the RB position thats old news.

But taking a period of press chippings and cutting them into stone does not make a business plan?

They bowed out of Miller's negotiations has zero to do with another player's value or
situation. They value the player [Miller] less then they value the player [ Elliott].
They may viwe Elliott after Ramsey as BPA

 

[Sydla]

This is a really, really good point. I had actually come to think that Elliot was the pick, based on the amount of smoke surrounding him. But this notion and the conference changed my mind.

They have shown at every step of the way that RB was a low priority position the last few years. They passed on Murray and other high priced options last off-season. They passed on the position in the draft last year. They passed on high priced options this year. That, and Jones flat out said this last year, when talking about Murray:
"We have great receivers. We have a great quarterback. We have a great offensive line," Jones said. "We're trying to get more defense so you have to make some tough decisions. "

If they draft Elliott, they will have had a drastic change of philosophy. I bet they do love Zeke, and I don't doubt that Jerry is capable of such 180s. But he's followed the process lately, and the process to this point clearly didn't entail investing the biggest liquid asset in 25 years on a RB.

My fear is that they think they are stuck. They want Ramsey and he's off the board at 3. There is Tunsil and Bosa and Elliott staring at them in the face and they apparently don't love Bosa and won't take Tunsil because they already have the OL they want and need. So that leaves Elliott. Jerry/Stephen will overvalue the 4th pick in a trade and as such, essentially box themselves in and force themselves to take Elliott knowing that while they like his talent, they realize that it totally blows up their stated belief on how to handle the TB position.

But they'll feel they simply don't have a choice.

Personally, if Elliott is as good as some around here claim, there will be suitors with fair offers for the 4th pick if Elliott and Tunsil are sitting there.

 

[Sydla]

I believe public statement releases can be viewed from several positions.
Those statements were during the brief era of D.Murray's bruising 2014 season
were he got used up in many estimations. He was offered a 6M per year contract
but Philly in Chips wisdom offered more .That period of PR was relative to that period.
Not saying that there isnt a trend toward devaluing the RB position thats old news.

But taking a period of press chippings and cutting them into stone does not make a business plan?

They bowed out of Miller's negotiations has zero to do with another player's value or
situation. They value the player [Miller] less then they value the player [ Elliott].
They may viwe Elliott after Ramsey as BPA

It was more than press clippings. Jones very clearly used the word "position" and " running back" when talking about why they didn't offer more to Murray. It wasn't just an anti-Murray reason, it was an anti-position reason why they felt that locking up a lot of money into the position was bad business.

And bowing out of Miller has everything to do with players' value. They wouldn't have inquired if they thought he wasn't a player they wanted on the roster. But the moment they saw his price tag, they bowed out because it simply did not fit into their salary structure for that position.

IMO, the only reason they end up with Elliott is because they'll feel they are trapped and don't have any options if Ramsey is off the board at 3.

 

[ConceptCoop]

My fear is that they think they are stuck. They want Ramsey and he's off the board at 3. There is Tunsil and Bosa and Elliott staring at them in the face and they apparently don't love Bosa and won't take Tunsil because they already have the OL they want and need. So that leaves Elliott. Jerry/Stephen will overvalue the 4th pick in a trade and as such, essentially box themselves in and force themselves to take Elliott knowing that while they like his talent, they realize that it totally blows up their stated belief on how to handle the TB position.

But they'll feel they simply don't have a choice.

Personally, if Elliott is as good as some around here claim, there will be suitors with fair offers for the 4th pick if Elliott and Tunsil are sitting there.

I think Tunsil is the pick at 3 - whether it's the Chargers making it or not. He's a franchise LT, which is arguably the second most important building block. I just can't see a team not cashing in on that value. And if the Chargers do take Ramsey, I think we'll get solid value in a trade down, if we want it.

I'm also not convinced that Elliott is clearly ahead of Bosa on their board. Their interest in both guys is real. I think Ramsey is clearly their top guy, but I'm not sure what their lean is on a potential Elliott vs Bosa call.

 

[waving monkey]

It was more than press clippings. Jones very clearly used the word "position" and " running back" when talking about why they didn't offer more to Murray. It wasn't just an anti-Murray reason, it was an anti-position reason why they felt that locking up a lot of money into the position was bad business.

And bowing out of Miller has everything to do with players' value. They wouldn't have inquired if they thought he wasn't a player they wanted on the roster. But the moment they saw his price tag, they bowed out because it simply did not fit into their salary structure for that position.

IMO, the only reason they end up with Elliott is because they'll feel they are trapped and don't have any options if Ramsey is off the board at 3.

Ramsey looks to be their guy but trap me with the Elliott have to problem anytime,thank you very much
comparing Miller's worth to Elliott's at this point is ?

 

[Sydla]

Ramsey looks to be their guy but trap me with the Elliott have to problem anytime,thank you very much
comparing Miller's worth to Elliott's at this point is ?

The point being that at least up until this draft, the Cowboys said AND acted very much like a franchise that simply would not put any money into the TB position. And even if you believe Elliott is much better than Miller (which isn't an outrageous claim) you'd be paying him nearly double what Miller got. Elliott is not twice the player Miller, or many TBs are, unless you think Elliott is somehow going to run for 2,500 yards this season.

Taking Elliott would be a very clear deviation from the "plan".

 

[Stash]

This is a really, really good point. I had actually come to think that Elliot was the pick, based on the amount of smoke surrounding him. But this notion and the conference changed my mind.

They have shown at every step of the way that RB was a low priority position the last few years. They passed on Murray and other high priced options last off-season. They passed on the position in the draft last year. They passed on high priced options this year. That, and Jones flat out said this last year, when talking about Murray:
"We have great receivers. We have a great quarterback. We have a great offensive line," Jones said. "We're trying to get more defense so you have to make some tough decisions. "

If they draft Elliott, they will have had a drastic change of philosophy. I bet they do love Zeke, and I don't doubt that Jerry is capable of such 180s. But he's followed the process lately, and the process to this point clearly didn't entail investing the biggest liquid asset in 25 years on a RB.

Credit to you for being able to see it. Far too many people can't apparently.

 

[Stash]

I believe public statement releases can be viewed from several positions.
Those statements were during the brief era of D.Murray's bruising 2014 season
were he got used up in many estimations. He was offered a 6M per year contract
but Philly in Chips wisdom offered more .That period of PR was relative to that period.
Not saying that there isnt a trend toward devaluing the RB position thats old news.

But taking a period of press chippings and cutting them into stone does not make a business plan?

They bowed out of Miller's negotiations has zero to do with another player's value or
situation. They value the player [Miller] less then they value the player [ Elliott].
They may viwe Elliott after Ramsey as BPA

And some people continue to see what they want to see...

 

[Stash]

Ramsey looks to be their guy but trap me with the Elliott have to problem anytime,thank you very much
comparing Miller's worth to Elliott's at this point is ?

Which guy is proven at the NFL level? (Hint: it's not Elliott!)

Which guys costs a guaranteed $24 million? (This is where you say Elliott!)

Which guy would not cost you the #4 overall pick? (This would be Lamar Miller!)

 

[CWR]

They didn't want to pay Murray in part because they beat him down the season prior and because he had his share of injuries through his rookie contract. Aside from Murray they liked Ingram but again he had his worts and they didn't want to pay him either. They did come out and basically say they had a line that a less talented running back could be successful with and they wanted to use thier resources in other areas.

This year they were interested in Miller but didn't feel comfortable paying him what Houston did.

What YOU don't know if how they thought Miller stacked up against Zeke. If they believe Zeke will be a far superior player then they can justify Zeke over Miller.

I don't believe when the Cowboys let Murray walk they knew they'd be stairing at Zeke the following year. Now they are attempting to be true to thier draft board. If he's the highest rated player he will likely be the pick. I can't blame them.

If a mediocre player can be good behind this line why can't an excellent player be amazing??

 

[BAT]

They take Elliott they have deviated from their plan. There's no way to spin that.

If the value isn't there in a player then you trade the pick. Someone will be clamoring to get to 4 to take Elliott, I would guess.

The fact they would even consider Elliott at 4 shows you they are willing to deviate from their plan. Which pretty much fits in with how Jerry has run this organization since Jimmy left.

Going 4-12 usually forces the smart ones to deviate from their plans. All plans must have the flexibility to change, the good plans anyway.

 

[NeonNinja]

I believe they're playing up the Elliot love to perhaps force a team like the Dolphins to trade with SD and make sure their top target Ramsey makes it to them. Of course, only my opinion.

 

[Aven8]

How can anybody not see that the coaches and Jerry himself are on borrowed time here. You can't blame either for wanting to go with Zeke. Zeke is one of the top backs to come out in over a decade so it's not like he is just another RB. Gurley last year was taken at 10 and coming off a knee that everyone knew wasn't going to be ready for the start the season.

 

[Sydla]

Going 4-12 usually forces the smart ones to deviate from their plans. All plans must have the flexibility to change, the good plans anyway.

Maybe if we went 4-12 because we realized the running game wasn't good enough without an elite TB.

But that's not what happened did it? They went 4-12 because they had their starting QB go down for most of the season and their starting WR basically be ineffective all year with a bum foot.

If anything, what last year should have told them is that they have to place a much higher value on QB. Which, laughingly, they did nothing in the offseason to address. Apparently Kellen Moore is the guy.

 

[Sydla]

How can anybody not see that the coaches and Jerry himself are on borrowed time here. You can't blame either for wanting to go with Zeke. Zeke is one of the top backs to come out in over a decade so it's not like he is just another RB. Gurley last year was taken at 10 and coming off a knee that everyone knew wasn't going to be ready for the start the season.

If Jerry and the coaches think it's the TB that's holding them back from winning a SB, then we are truly ***** as a franchise for the foreseeable future.

 

[Aven8]

If Jerry and the coaches think it's the TB that's holding them back from winning a SB, then we are truly ***** as a franchise for the foreseeable future.

Well the TB (along with the Oline) got us closer to the SB then anything they have tried in the past 20 years. And yet they screwed that one up last year thinking anybody could run behind this Oline, and doing the stupid RBBC crap.