CFZ Scouting the dolphins

[CCBoy]

THere's a guy on their defense chubb I think who is coming off a really good weekend, we better block him. I think the focus will be too much on hill and waddle may get us

One involves the secondary and defensive front...and the other involves play designs, rhythm, stability of the right side of the Dallas offensive line and play calls.

 

[shabazz]

Reality coming soon at a stadium in Miami......provide evidence.

 

[IceStar-D7]

Up to our run game and defense. We get neither ? They may put 70 on us also

 

[Bobhaze]

Up to our run game and defense. We get neither ? They may put 70 on us also

It’s going to take more than run D this week. IMO, our offense better be scoring at least 30.

 

[CCBoy]

The narrative? They can't beat good teams or teams with winning records.

I can see here and now, Mothers just love him!

 

[Creeper]

You would think the Dolphins will try to run the ball the same way the Bills did. Get outside the tackles and inside the DEs and beat the sloppy tackling and poor angles of the Cowboys secondary. But with all the attention on te Cowboys run defense last week, I would not be surprised if they go to play action right off the bat and look for a quick deep strike to score first.

I am sure opponents know they cannot fall behind Dallas so scoring first is a priority.

I also have a thought on the Bills game. I think the Cowboys went into that game worried about Josh Allen going crazy so they looked for him first and were late to defend the run. I think the Bills running game surprised them.

These two teams, the Cowboys and Dolphins, look to be so similar in how they got to where they are now. It is hard to predict, but if the Dolphins speed overwhelms Dallas early, I see another blowout. The Cowboys are not a good defense when they play from behind.

 

[CCBoy]

You would think the Dolphins will try to run the ball the same way the Bills did. Get outside the tackles and inside the DEs and beat the sloppy tackling and poor angles of the Cowboys secondary. But with all the attention on te Cowboys run defense last week, I would not be surprised if they go to play action right off the bat and look for a quick deep strike to score first.

I am sure opponents know they cannot fall behind Dallas so scoring first is a priority.

I also have a thought on the Bills game. I think the Cowboys went into that game worried about Josh Allen going crazy so they looked for him first and were late to defend the run. I think the Bills running game surprised them.

These two teams, the Cowboys and Dolphins, look to be so similar in how they got to where they are now. It is hard to predict, but if the Dolphins speed overwhelms Dallas early, I see another blowout. The Cowboys are not a good defense when they play from behind.

With plays run exactly as did Buffalo...preparation and work now Cowboys.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Here’s a quick overview of the dolphins record, team stats, strengths, weaknesses, and other observations.

Record: 10-4 (first in AFC East)
Current Playoff Seeding: 2nd seed
Home Record: 6-1 (Wins: broncos, raiders, patriots, jets, giants, panthers. Loss: titans)
Road Record: 4-3 (Wins: jets, chargers, commanders, Texans. Losses: chiefs, bills, eagles)
Offense Rank:

• Scoring: 1st- Avg 31.5 ppg (Cowboys ranked 2nd at 30.8)
• Total offense: 1st 414 yds per game. (Cowboys ranked 6th at 368 ypg)
• Passing: 1st at 274 ypg. (Cowboys ranked 6th at 251 ypg)
• Rushing: 4th at 140 ypg. (Cowboys ranked 12th at 116 ypg)

Defense Rank:

• Scoring: 14th avg giving 21 ppg (Cowboys ranked 5th at 18.9 ppg)
• Total defense: 5th avg 293 ypg (Cowboys ranked 6th at 294 ypg)
• Passing defense: 10th at 203 ypg (Cowboys ranked 4th at 176 ypg)
• Rushing defense: 4th at 90.4 ypg (Cowboys ranked 19th at 117 ypg)

DOLPHINS STRENGTHS

• Passing game- QB Tua Tagolivioa leads the NFL in passing yards, is second in yards per attempt and has 25 TDs passing. He also has 10 interceptions. The dolphins have a very good deep passing game with Tyreek Hill.
• Tyreek Hill. The most dangerous receiver in football, especially as a deep threat. He leads the NFL in receiving yards and TDs and that’s even with missing last week’s game. He’s a huge weapon.
• RB Raheem Mostert is third in the NFL in rushing yards with 966 and has a whopping 18 TDs rushing!
• Defense has 48 sacks which is 2nd only to the ravens with 50. (Surprisingly Dallas is 11th in sacks with 40)
• Red Zone success- Dolphins are 2nd in NFL in red zone success with 68%. (Cowboys are at 56%)

DOLPHINS WEAKNESSES

• Turnover Margin- they are only +2 and have 20 total turnovers (Cowboys are +9 and have the least # of TOs in the NFL with 12)
• Defensive passing game- they can be passed on IF we protect our QB.
• Tua is not mobile. He can be sacked pretty easily if we can get some pressure.
• Dolphins have mostly beaten bad teams and have not been able to beat the better teams in their schedule (sound familiar?) They recently lost to the lowly Titans in Miami.

KEYS TO VICTORY

• We must score 30 or more. Period. The dolphins score at home pretty consistently.
• We must be able to get at least 2 TOs. If we have 1 or less TOs to their 2 or more, we win.
• Cannot let Tua have time to find his second and third reads. He is an accurate passer and reads defenses well.
• If Tyreek Hill plays, we must prevent the quick strike plays. He can score at any time, anywhere.
• Control the TOP. I see this game hinging on our offense keeping the ball away from theirs.

Thoughts?

The defense is going to give up points to Miami and the best way to help them is for our own offense to put up points and control the ball,,, all depends on if we get tear-it-up Dak or deer-in-the-headlights Dak...

 

[DasTex]

Their offensive line is pretty banged up - if the offense can score and they are forced to pass, we'll get to Tua. If they get up on us and stick to the run, we are in trouble

 

[Pass2Run]

Here’s a quick overview of the dolphins record, team stats, strengths, weaknesses, and other observations.

Record: 10-4 (first in AFC East)
Current Playoff Seeding: 2nd seed
Home Record: 6-1 (Wins: broncos, raiders, patriots, jets, giants, panthers. Loss: titans)
Road Record: 4-3 (Wins: jets, chargers, commanders, Texans. Losses: chiefs, bills, eagles)
Offense Rank:

• Scoring: 1st- Avg 31.5 ppg (Cowboys ranked 2nd at 30.8)
• Total offense: 1st 414 yds per game. (Cowboys ranked 6th at 368 ypg)
• Passing: 1st at 274 ypg. (Cowboys ranked 6th at 251 ypg)
• Rushing: 4th at 140 ypg. (Cowboys ranked 12th at 116 ypg)

Defense Rank:

• Scoring: 14th avg giving 21 ppg (Cowboys ranked 5th at 18.9 ppg)
• Total defense: 5th avg 293 ypg (Cowboys ranked 6th at 294 ypg)
• Passing defense: 10th at 203 ypg (Cowboys ranked 4th at 176 ypg)
• Rushing defense: 4th at 90.4 ypg (Cowboys ranked 19th at 117 ypg)

DOLPHINS STRENGTHS

• Passing game- QB Tua Tagolivioa leads the NFL in passing yards, is second in yards per attempt and has 25 TDs passing. He also has 10 interceptions. The dolphins have a very good deep passing game with Tyreek Hill.
• Tyreek Hill. The most dangerous receiver in football, especially as a deep threat. He leads the NFL in receiving yards and TDs and that’s even with missing last week’s game. He’s a huge weapon.
• RB Raheem Mostert is third in the NFL in rushing yards with 966 and has a whopping 18 TDs rushing!
• Defense has 48 sacks which is 2nd only to the ravens with 50. (Surprisingly Dallas is 11th in sacks with 40)
• Red Zone success- Dolphins are 2nd in NFL in red zone success with 68%. (Cowboys are at 56%)

DOLPHINS WEAKNESSES

• Turnover Margin- they are only +2 and have 20 total turnovers (Cowboys are +9 and have the least # of TOs in the NFL with 12)
• Defensive passing game- they can be passed on IF we protect our QB.
• Tua is not mobile. He can be sacked pretty easily if we can get some pressure.
• Dolphins have mostly beaten bad teams and have not been able to beat the better teams in their schedule (sound familiar?) They recently lost to the lowly Titans in Miami.

KEYS TO VICTORY

• We must score 30 or more. Period. The dolphins score at home pretty consistently.
• We must be able to get at least 2 TOs. If we have 1 or less TOs to their 2 or more, we win.
• Cannot let Tua have time to find his second and third reads. He is an accurate passer and reads defenses well.
• If Tyreek Hill plays, we must prevent the quick strike plays. He can score at any time, anywhere.
• Control the TOP. I see this game hinging on our offense keeping the ball away from theirs.

Thoughts?

It doesn't seem like they hold up well against the better teams.
This is a game where I'd like to see us run and utilize the play action.. if we can establish a run, I think we win the game. Give me 75-100 yards in the first half, and we're in business. I'm not getting fooled like I did against Buffalo. I think this game comes down to running.

That said, it'll be exciting to see Tyreek Hill and Lamb duking it out. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I predict two sacks by Parsons. He's going to be pissed this game after that peformance in Buffalo. Say what you want about Micah. I wouldn't want to play against an angry Parsons.

The player I most worry about is Achane.

By the way, nice post, BobHaze.

 

[The Natural]

Tyreek Hill is going to have one of those Calvin Johnson/Randy Moss type games. We're just going to have capitalize on those 1-2 plays Tua makes every game where he gives the defense a chance to make a play.

 

[CCBoy]

It doesn't seem like they hold up well against the better teams.
This is a game where I'd like to see us run and utilize the play action.. if we can establish a run, I think we win the game. Give me 75-100 yards in the first half, and we're in business. I'm not getting fooled like I did against Buffalo. I think this game comes down to running.

That said, it'll be exciting to see Tyreek Hill and Lamb duking it out. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I predict two sacks by Parsons. He's going to be pissed this game after that peformance in Buffalo. Say what you want about Micah. I wouldn't want to play against an angry Parsons.

The player I most worry about is Achane.

By the way, nice post, BobHaze.

Buffalo found that by playing larger personnel groups like 12, 21 and even adding an extra offensive lineman for a jumbo look, the Cowboys would be unable to match up in personnel. And they were essentially right. Based on player tracking, Dallas used 3-2-6 and 4-1-6 personnel on defense 79% of their snaps. In those personnel groups the Cowboys gave up +0.24 EPA/play and +0.21 EPA/play respectively.

The only personnel group worse than Dallas’ light look was their bulkier 4-3-4 group. When the Cowboys answered Buffalo’s big personnel, going light in the secondary and adding more in the front seven, they gave up a staggering +0.53 EPA/play.

Dan Quinn prefers to lean into the strengths of his personnel and it’s easy to see why. Removing a good DB for a LB of far lesser quality is bad business. In the case of Week 15, the Cowboys’ lowest LB on the depth chart, Rashaan Evans, scored the lowest defensive score of the game. His run-stopping grade of 33.1 wasn’t just lower than any DB on the Cowboys, but lower than any single player.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/justin-houston-micah-parsons-cowboys-lb-issues/

Of course, the alternative to using an extra LB like Evans is allowing the extra lineman to openly bulldoze a defensive back. That’s not exactly an ideal situation either. This dilemma in which we speak is causing many to think of alternative solutions.

 

[CCBoy]

For the move Micah to LB crowd: At LB, Micah has a ~16% negatively graded play rate vs the run, which would rank in the 130s among LBs. On the EDGE, it's sub 10%.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/justin-houston-micah-parsons-cowboys-lb-issues/


Playing LB is much different than playing EDGE in the NFL. The roles and responsibilities are much different and just because Parsons used to play good run defense at off-ball LB doesn’t mean he can today. It’s worth noting his run defense score on Sunday was only marginally better than Evans, coming in at 39.7.

Dallas could use Parsons as the occasional and situational option at off-ball LB, but moving him on any type of regular basis is not the answer.

 

[Pass2Run]

Tyreek is the guy that makes me the most nervous because I haven't seen a guy like him in my lifetime. He's truly a specimen. I think about that scoring play he had on us before the half against KC in 2017 and it still infuriates me. They just have so much speed everywhere. 3 track stars on offense, including Achane.

I wouldn't sleep on the defense either. Chubb was wrecking the game for them last week.

Tyreek will be out for the game, it looks like .Or is that a manufactured rumor to throw our preparation off?

 

[CCBoy]

Buffalo found that by playing larger personnel groups like 12, 21 and even adding an extra offensive lineman for a jumbo look, the Cowboys would be unable to match up in personnel. And they were essentially right. Based on player tracking, Dallas used 3-2-6 and 4-1-6 personnel on defense 79% of their snaps. In those personnel groups the Cowboys gave up +0.24 EPA/play and +0.21 EPA/play respectively.

The only personnel group worse than Dallas’ light look was their bulkier 4-3-4 group. When the Cowboys answered Buffalo’s big personnel, going light in the secondary and adding more in the front seven, they gave up a staggering +0.53 EPA/play.

Dan Quinn prefers to lean into the strengths of his personnel and it’s easy to see why. Removing a good DB for a LB of far lesser quality is bad business. In the case of Week 15, the Cowboys’ lowest LB on the depth chart, Rashaan Evans, scored the lowest defensive score of the game. His run-stopping grade of 33.1 wasn’t just lower than any DB on the Cowboys, but lower than any single player.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/justin-houston-micah-parsons-cowboys-lb-issues/

Of course, the alternative to using an extra LB like Evans is allowing the extra lineman to openly bulldoze a defensive back. That’s not exactly an ideal situation either. This dilemma in which we speak is causing many to think of alternative solutions.

Playing LB is much different than playing EDGE in the NFL. The roles and responsibilities are much different and just because Parsons used to play good run defense at off-ball LB doesn’t mean he can today. It’s worth noting his run defense score on Sunday was only marginally better than Evans, coming in at 39.7.

Dallas could use Parsons as the occasional and situational option at off-ball LB, but moving him on any type of regular basis is not the answer.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/justin-houston-micah-parsons-cowboys-lb-issues/

As to available free agents in or were up to consider:


Somethings off with Shaq Leonard. Can't start and stop very well.

Former All Pro LB Justin Houston is looking to join a Super Bowl contender.
The Panthers just released the veteran this week. There’s also the matter of the position Houston plays. Like Parsons, he’s listed as a LB, but the reality is he’s more lineman than LB. Of his 178 snaps played in 2023, 173 have come on the line. As if that isn’t enough, Houston hasn’t been a very strong run defender in years, making him a pretty poor answer to the Cowboys run defense problems.

 

[Denim Chicken]

 

[CCBoy]

QB
Conclusion:
Dak has more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and fewer yards. Between these two quarterbacks the numbers aren’t far from each other, even their season passer ratings are side-by-side in rankings. Dak does win considerably in rushing yards. He has 212 rush yards and two rushing touchdowns to Tagovailoa’s 55 rush yards.
Win: Push

RB
Conclusion:
The Cowboys running backs aren’t lacking talent, they’re lacking consistency. Offensive line play doesn’t help their case but there are times when this Cowboys running back duo just looks flat at or lacking power to hit a gap like a certain number 21 once used to do. Miami ranks fourth in average rush yards per game, Dallas ranks 12th. Miami is first in rushing touchdowns, Dallas is tenth. Easy win here for Miami.
Win: Dolphins

WR
Conclusion:
Hill and Waddle outscore Lamb and Cooks in yards and touchdowns. The Dolphins offense ranks first in receiving yards which is all we need to know.
Win: Dolphins

TE
Conclusion:
Jake Ferguson has outscored Smythe by a considerable amount. Ferguson ranks sixth in receiving yards and third in touchdowns among tight ends. As a blocker, Ferguson is far better in pass sets and run blocking. Luke Schoonmaker has shown to be a better blocker than Smythe so far.
Win: Cowboys

OL
The Dolphins line is playing very well this season even with the injuries it’s sustained. Starting tackle Robert Hunt will more than likely miss this week’s game with a hamstring injury. Starting guard Austin Jackson left last week’s game early with an oblique injury and he’s uncertain to play this week. On top of that, old friend Connor Williams was placed on injured reserve last week and Isaiah Wynn was shutdown back in October. That’s a lot of missing pieces yet the line allowed only one sack last week. Competition level does help with fact and the Dolphins playing possession football early in the game against the Jets.

But this week against the Cowboys pass rush things may look different. With this amount of line changes on the Dolphins offensive line, you expect the cohesion and synchronicity to not quite be at levels previous. That of course will disrupt the zone blocking scheme and its effectiveness to protect Tua. This line could actually have a bad day against Dallas, if Dallas can capitalize on the situation. With the injuries piling up on the Dolphins side, and the Cowboys looking to start their entire starting offensive line, this favors Dallas.

Win: Cowboys
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...escott-tua-tagovailoa-ceedee-lamb-tyreek-hill

 

[loublue22]

This game is on Dak, I don't care if the defense is bad, go outscore them.

 

[CCBoy]

Playing LB is much different than playing EDGE in the NFL. The roles and responsibilities are much different and just because Parsons used to play good run defense at off-ball LB doesn’t mean he can today. It’s worth noting his run defense score on Sunday was only marginally better than Evans, coming in at 39.7.

Dallas could use Parsons as the occasional and situational option at off-ball LB, but moving him on any type of regular basis is not the answer.


https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/justin-houston-micah-parsons-cowboys-lb-issues/

As to available free agents in or were up to consider:


Somethings off with Shaq Leonard. Can't start and stop very well.

Former All Pro LB Justin Houston is looking to join a Super Bowl contender.
The Panthers just released the veteran this week. There’s also the matter of the position Houston plays. Like Parsons, he’s listed as a LB, but the reality is he’s more lineman than LB. Of his 178 snaps played in 2023, 173 have come on the line. As if that isn’t enough, Houston hasn’t been a very strong run defender in years, making him a pretty poor answer to the Cowboys run defense problems.

LB Damone Clark​

A big part of Dallas’ defensive struggles on Sunday was the play of their linebackers. 23-year-old Damone Clark was at the forefront of those struggles and had one of his worst days as a pro. The former LSU Tiger posted a 49.8 defensive grade, via Pro Football Focus, his second-worst mark of the season.

Dallas’ next two opponents, the Dolphins and Lions, are two of the top-five rushing offenses in the league. If they want to win those games, stopping the run will need to be their defense’s top priority. To do that, they’ll need much better play out of their linebackers and specifically will need more from Clark.

The former fifth-round pick showed some promise in the middle weeks of the season and Dallas will need him to get back to that form in these next three matchups.

OT Terence Steele​

Terence Steele has been the true X-factor on Dallas’ offensive line this season. When Steele plays well, the Cowboys win, and they win big. In games where Steele has allowed two or fewer pressures this season, the Cowboys are 6-2 and have outscored their opponents 261-126. In games where Steele has a Pass Blocking Efficiency grade over 94, via PFF, Dallas is 8-2.

Steele’s play directly ties to Dallas’ overall success as a team. This week against a talented Dolphins’ pass rush, the Cowboys will need Steele to step up big time and be at his best.

If Steele plays well down the stretch there is a good chance Dallas’ offense will put up solid performances in their final three regular season games.

RB Tony Pollard​

As a whole, a running back’s success is greatly dictated by the performance of a team’s offensive line, but what a boost it would be for Dallas’ offense if they could get the old Tony Pollard back for the last three games of the regular season.

From Week 8 through Week 11, it looked like Pollard had regained some of his explosiveness. During that four-game stretch, the 26-year-old averaged 4.7 Y/A and recorded six broken tackles. Since then, Pollard has regressed a bit, averaging just 3.8 Y/A over Dallas’ last three games.

Last season, Pollard’s ability to generate explosive plays on offense helped Dallas win some big games. With their recent struggles to stop the run on the defensive side of the ball, they likely will need to score close to 30 points in these next two games if they want to win. That would become much easier if Pollard was able to be a significant contributor on offense.

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/202...pollard-playoiffs-nfc-east-division-wild-card

From here on out, it's going to take a whole team!

 

[Sarge]

Tyreek against our safeties gives me gas…