Short and Sweet prediction

[Chuck 54]

Playoffs or no Playoffs, and certainly drafting high next season, have "0" do do with who we draft this year.
Those determinations are 100% on Romo being healthy.
Romo plays----playoffs
Romo doesn't play or is lost for most of the season again----high draft pick

This draft isn't about this year, but about the next 4-5 years, and what we do at the first pick isn't the sole factor.

Gurley is a better RB than Elliott, and he had a fantastic season, rookie of the year....yet the Rams still sucked. Elliott won't keep the Cowboys from sucking, no matter how good he is...only Romo and Dez can make the Cowboys successful. They need other role players and a decent defense, but without Romo and Dez at their best, we go nowhere.

 

[jobberone]

And we've been over this before........... no one is talking about the Cowboys winning 10 games last year with a backup QB.

When you can't win even one game with a backup QB in 12 games, it's of consequence no matter how hard you want to try to deflect and not put this at the feet of the coaching staff. You can continue to try to downplay that but the fact this team with supposedly the best OL in football couldn't squeeze out one win with a backup QB is pretty damn telling.

Who gives a crap if a backup wins a couple. IF he looks like a franchise maybe. IF he can get us to the playoffs.

Keep blowing off the fact in the history of the league few teams ever won anything with a backup in a vain attempt to dump on the staff.

Oh, if we could have only won a game here or there we'd have had 6-8 wins. The staff wins 12 games with Romo but now suck because our backup QBs really really suckes. It has to be that awful coaching and not that awful QB play, no pass rush and marginal pass defense along with a huge negative TO Diff.

 

[Sydla]

Who gives a crap if a backup wins a couple. IF he looks like a franchise maybe. IF he can get us to the playoffs.

Keep blowing off the fact in the history of the league few teams ever won anything with a backup in a vain attempt to dump on the staff.

Oh, if we could have only won a game here or there we'd have had 6-8 wins. The staff wins 12 games with Romo but now suck because our backup QBs really really suckes. It has to be that awful coaching and not that awful QB play, no pass rush and marginal pass defense along with a huge negative TO Diff.

You are missing the point.

Stop repeating stuff that has little bearing on the discussion here. I will make it simple for you.

A high quality coaching staff that can adapt to certain situations would have squeezed a couple of wins out with a backup QB.

A mediocre staff does what Garrett and his coaches did. Not win one game in 12 chances with a backup QB.

That's why winning a couple of games with a backup is meaningful. It gives some confidence that the staff in place has a clue. When you can't win one freaking game in 12 chances with a backup, it very clearly and logically calls into question the overall quality of your staff.

 

[DC Cowboy]

If the Cowboys draft Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys will go to the playoffs, but will likely fall short of going deep into the playoffs due to holes on defense.

If the Cowboys draft anywhere on defense with the 4th pick, they will be picking high again in 2017.

Discuss

while I agree, the sad part is this is a weird draft. At 4 and with our D you would think we go DE without hesitation, and we still might, but there isn't a DE that is blowing "everyone" away, you know a consensus can't miss guy.

 

[DC Cowboy]

I would agree....depending on the position. And at the RB position...with this OL....with the threat we have at WR in Dez and at QB with Romo....an explosive RB could actually be a difference maker.

Especially if we get a WR with speed and hands, that can take the top off.

 

[jday]

Nope, a great running game actually has very little effect on the passing game. Elliott would have to improve the passing game mostly through his receiving skills and pass blocking skills -- assuming we use him for those things, of course.

I beg to differ....if a defense has to commit more people to stop the run, that means more room for the passing game to operate.

 

[jday]

while I agree, the sad part is this is a weird draft. At 4 and with our D you would think we go DE without hesitation, and we still might, but there isn't a DE that is blowing "everyone" away, you know a consensus can't miss guy.

I honestly think the Cowboys will take Hardy back at a discount rather than throw away a 4th pick overall for a need on a player not deserving of that designation. Zeke may not be considered a top 5 prospect, but he would have a top 5 impact for the Cowboys right away, imo.

 

[percyhoward]

When you can't win even one game with a backup QB in 12 games, it's of consequence.

It's especially rare of teams that went to the playoffs the previous season.

 

[percyhoward]

When we committed to the run, we went 12-4 and into the playoffs. We had three years of Dez and Romo and passing all over the place. This team didn't produce a winning season until we committed to running the ball in 2014 and our running back rattled off like 9 100 yd games in a row.

Careful though. From 2011-13, Romo had the league's 5th-highest passer rating, never ranking outside the Top 10, so we should have had winning records all three years. You have to ask yourself why we didn't. The answer is primarily because of our defensive performances those three years.

Here are our rankings in defensive passer rating those three seasons. Compare it to 2014's ranking.
2011 25th
2012 29th
2013 26th
2014 13th

Here are the strength of schedules for the defense. The higher the ranking, the better the schedule of offenses we faced. Compare 2012's and 2013's schedules to 2014's schedule.
2011 19th
2012 5th
2013 5th
2014 30th

The Dallas offense went from 4th in scoring up to 2nd in 2014, so most of the improvement in 2014 was on the defensive side. The defense went from two years of some of the league's hardest schedules to one of its easiest schedules in 2014. Although we could make a long list of reasons that the team bettered its record by 4 wins in 2014 (and the improved running game is one of them), most of the defensive improvement (and by extension, the team's improvement) can be traced to that easy schedule.

Remember that having a top 5 rusher on your team in no way correlates to winning.

 

[AdamJT13]

I beg to differ....if a defense has to commit more people to stop the run, that means more room for the passing game to operate.

But the effect on overall passing effectiveness is almost negligible. The most important times when you need to pass the ball well are on third-and-long and in late-game, must-pass situations -- when the defense can virtually ignore the run. The "benefit" to the passing game that provided by an effective running game is moderate on a few plays a game -- and virtually the same benefits can be achieved through formation and execution. That's why there is very low correlation between rushing effectiveness and passing effectiveness, and especially between YPC and winning or losing.

 

[jday]

But the effect on overall passing effectiveness is almost negligible. The most important times when you need to pass the ball well are on third-and-long and in late-game, must-pass situations -- when the defense can virtually ignore the run. The "benefit" to the passing game that provided by an effective running game is moderate on a few plays a game -- and virtually the same benefits can be achieved through formation and execution. That's why there is very low correlation between rushing effectiveness and passing effectiveness, and especially between YPC and winning or losing.

On the other hand, an effective running game should assist in lowering the amount of 3rd and long situations. So again, I disagree.

But like I mentioned earlier in this thread, I believe addressing running back will at the very least make next season more entertaining...but I doubt it would be enough to make them a serious contender.

 

[StarBoyz83]

On the other hand, an effective running game should assist in lowering the amount of 3rd and long situations. So again, I disagree.

But like I mentioned earlier in this thread, I believe addressing running back will at the very least make next season more entertaining...but I doubt it would be enough to make them a serious contender.

No part of the draft will make Dallas a cotender.

 

[percyhoward]

On the other hand, an effective running game should assist in lowering the amount of 3rd and long situations.

In the second half of 2014, Romo had a perfect passer rating on 2nd and long (8-12 yards to go). I don't think it's a coincidence that as we kept running on 1st down (and defenses started thinking about the run more and more) Murray's YPC went down and Romo's passer rating went up. We were benefiting from defenses having to play us honest.

But the big picture is that there's no way we'd have been able to keep running on 1st down without a QB we could count on to bail us out of 2nd-and-long, 3rd-and-long situations. Romo may have benefited on 2nd and long from defenses that were expecting a run, but he was already the best QB on 2nd and long anyway going into the season, and we knew that.

If defenses want to shut down a running game, they can. Look at what happened to the 2015 Rams.

 

[Gaede]

Careful though. From 2011-13, Romo had the league's 5th-highest passer rating, never ranking outside the Top 10, so we should have had winning records all three years. You have to ask yourself why we didn't. The answer is primarily because of our defensive performances those three years.

Here are our rankings in defensive passer rating those three seasons. Compare it to 2014's ranking.
2011 25th
2012 29th
2013 26th
2014 13th

Here are the strength of schedules for the defense. The higher the ranking, the better the schedule of offenses we faced. Compare 2012's and 2013's schedules to 2014's schedule.
2011 19th
2012 5th
2013 5th
2014 30th

The Dallas offense went from 4th in scoring up to 2nd in 2014, so most of the improvement in 2014 was on the defensive side. The defense went from two years of some of the league's hardest schedules to one of its easiest schedules in 2014. Although we could make a long list of reasons that the team bettered its record by 4 wins in 2014 (and the improved running game is one of them), most of the defensive improvement (and by extension, the team's improvement) can be traced to that easy schedule.

Remember that having a top 5 rusher on your team in no way correlates to winning.

If rankings of defense and offense correlate directly to winning, does that mean the super bowl winning team, or even the team with the best regular season record, would invariably have the highest offensive and defensive rankings?

Does a high passer rating mean your team should win or just that you pass a lot and have a good QB? Does a poor defensive ranking mean your defense just stinks or that they've had little help from your offense and special teams?

The numbers are clear, but I think there are many ways one could explain them

And my problem with this kind of analysis is that it completely discounts the fact that in football, and sports in general, 'winning' can be a result will, or power, coaching or even luck.

 

[jnday]

OK, I'll bite.

I don't agree because I don't think last year has anything to do with next year. Last year was strange. Yes, Romo's injury is the highlight, but the schedule couldn't have been more brutal. Romo gets hurt, and the Cowboys face Ryan, Brees, Brady, Eli, and Wilson, followed by the Eagles. And all that is essentially without Dez Bryant, who by the way, was egregiously interfered with against Tampa that could have won that game. Romo then comes back in time to face must-wins against Carolina and Green Bay. Oh, gee, thanks.

This year looks like a DRASTICALLY easier schedule. With a modicum of luck on the injury front, I think we're in for a 11-5 type of season.

However, I share your hope for a big-time running back addition. Zeke would be fun, but I'd also be interested in what Henry could do behind this line, or the kid from Utah.

If you watch the games before Romo and Dez was injured, the offense never looked that good. The whole offense was thrown off by the lack of a top quality RB. DMac had the best stats without having any impact that I have ever seen. Of course many fans forget that a lot of those stats came during garbage time in the games he played. He will not make a difference even if Romo and Dez are healthy . Morris has declined every season and his best days are behind him. Murray left a lot of yards on the field, but in all honesty he was badly missed. The offense has a shortage of playmakers as it is. Zeke or Henry will instantly improve the offense. Zeke is a complete RB and Henry's size and speed combination makes me curious. RB would be the best position to get a playmaker with the quickest return on the investment. They still need a couple more playmakers to be a great offense. There is not a defensive player that can have anywhere close to the impact as a RB. I doubt that any defensive rookie would see much playing time until the last few games of the season.

 

[jnday]

Playoffs or no Playoffs, and certainly drafting high next season, have "0" do do with who we draft this year.
Those determinations are 100% on Romo being healthy.
Romo plays----playoffs
Romo doesn't play or is lost for most of the season again----high draft pick

This draft isn't about this year, but about the next 4-5 years, and what we do at the first pick isn't the sole factor.

Gurley is a better RB than Elliott, and he had a fantastic season, rookie of the year....yet the Rams still sucked. Elliott won't keep the Cowboys from sucking, no matter how good he is...only Romo and Dez can make the Cowboys successful. They need other role players and a decent defense, but without Romo and Dez at their best, we go nowhere.

Dez disappears for stretches during games, so he is not missed much. The team needs to upgrade the other WRs ASAP. Without Romo, they could easily go winless. The Rams don't have the oline that Dallas has, so Zeke could have a better all-around season than Gurley. You make a good point about the draft being for 4-5 years from now. That is why Wentz is my hope.

 

[percyhoward]

If rankings of defense and offense correlate directly to winning, does that mean the super bowl winning team, or even the team with the best regular season record, would invariably have the highest offensive and defensive rankings?

The teams near the top almost always have winning records, the teams in the middle are usually around .500, and teams near the bottom usually have the worst records. The correlation between passing successfully and winning is strong, the correlation between stopping the pass and winning is strong, and the correlation between doing both and winning is even stronger.

Passer Rating Differential
Cowboys' NFL rank
2011 9th
2012 18th
2013 18th
2014 2nd
2015 29th

That's the team's offensive number minus the defensive number. Last year, there were 28 teams ranked higher than Dallas in PRD, and 28 teams with better W-L records. The year before, Dallas was tied with four other teams for the best record, and those five teams were the Top 5 in PRD. The two years before that, we ranked near the middle of the league in PRD and finished 8-8 each time. The 2011 numbers say we were good enough to go 10-6, so out of the 80 games in those five seasons, PRD was off by about two games.

Does a high passer rating mean your team should win or just that you pass a lot and have a good QB?

SInce it's a measure of efficiency (not production), there's no correlation between passing a lot and a high passer rating. In fact, last year's Top 5 teams in passer rating ranked 5th, 19th, 20th, 26th, and 28th in pass attempts. Does a higher passer rating mean you have a good QB? Here's the list of the guys who have had the most Top-10 seasons in passer rating: Manning, Montana, Brady, Marino, Tarkenton. You tell me.

Does a poor defensive ranking mean your defense just stinks or that they've had little help from your offense and special teams? The numbers are clear, but I think there are many ways one could explain them.

So explore the possible explanations. You say we didn't produce a winning season until we committed to running the ball. What allowed us to do that? It wasn't just an improved OL, it was also the fact that we had a Top 5 QB, elite WR, and a defense that was facing the league's 3rd-easiest schedule of offenses. Without a passing threat to keep defenses honest, we'd have been unable to commit to the run. Without a schedule full of turnover-prone teams, we'd have been behind more, and forced to pass more often.

And my problem with this kind of analysis is that it completely discounts the fact that in football, and sports in general, 'winning' can be a result of will, or power, coaching or even luck.

It's not any specific kind of analysis, it's just analysis. Looking at the result of every play, and then drawing your conclusions afterward. If your team is lucky, strong-willed, powerful, or blessed with great coaching, that will be reflected in the play on the field. And whatever role those elements may have played, you're going to get some numbers at the end of it that generally show you that the team that was more successful passing and stopping the pass was the team that won.

 

[Cowboys1fan]

I saw those 8-8 teams all over last years team. Without Romo they won a whopping 4 games and looked really really..................really bad. 2014 wasn't the year we thought it was.....every now and then even a blind dog catches a bone...

But; we do have an easy schedule. In an Easy division. Just sitting there, waiting for us to take it.......

I think if everything goes right...... we end up 10-6 division champs. And we may catch the "win one for Romo" lightning in a bottle momentum swing.....maybe.

But I aint betting money on any of that. In fact, I would bet MONEY, on another losing season. or 8-8. But dont worry, we will be battling it out for a playoff spot. Like the Commanders last year.

Without romo we won 1.. Lol romo actually won 3 out of the 4 games he started. Romo will have a huge year. I can't imagine getting him a josh doctson target to go on the outside