there are no guarantees in the NFL. But, you try to play the odds in best your favor.
As much as I don't like Jaworski, he has an all time classic line of 'it's not about certainty, it's about probability.'
I think there are a lot of things to consider here, even with 2 Timeouts.
Takes a Knee at the 1-yard line
The Cowboys would have likely taken a knee 3 times, burned the Giants timeouts, and kicked a FG to go up by 9. The G-Men probably get the ball back with 45-55 seconds, assuming they don't return the kick (which happened all night). They would have to drive 80 yards with no timeouts. The best play for the G-Men would be to quickly get into FG range, kick the FG. Then recover an onside kick and then throw a hail mary
Scores the TD
The big thing here is that the G-Men needed to score more quickly than they did. Still, if you argue against the 'take the knee at the 1-yard line', then you are expecting the G-men to score a TD within 45-55 seconds. And if you expect them to do that there, then you can argue that they could do the same with 1:50 seconds left. If the G-Men did score a TD in 50 seconds, then they have an onside kick with 1 minute left. The big difference is that they would still have to score a TD.
I still prefer the knee at the 1-yard line, but it's impossible to ask a player to think that ahead given the situation and particularly since the ball just happened to fall in his lap.
YR