Should Cowboys run Zeke like they did Murray in 2014?

[InTheZone]

Murray was 26 in 2014.

Some reason thinking he was 28. Either way you could see him slowing down. He had always been dealing with leg, knee, or foot injuries it seemed every year.

 

[uvaballa]

The easy answer for me is NO.

Actually, the cowboys should sign Ezekiel Elliott to a new deal either this off-season or next.

Going off the idea that a new contract would in all likelihood be a 5 year deal. If you sign him to a new deal this off-season. It makes Zeke the age of 28 during the last year of his deal. Which means he would be locked up to the last year you can reasonably expect elite level production from him.

Around the age of 29 is when the decline for a lot of top level RB’s has started.

Even in recent history, you can see it with a lot of the better RB’s. Lessen McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Edgerrin James, ladanian Tomlinson, etc.

Sign Zeke now. Get 5 more years of top level production out of him. Then when he is about to hit the wall, he is off the books.

Only way they sign him now is if he gives them a discount. They have him for cheap two more years so use it.

 

[HungryLion]

Only way they sign him now is if he gives them a discount. They have him for cheap two more years so use it.

They have him “cheap” for one more year.

The 5th year option is not cheap. His cap hit the first year of a new deal would likely be cheaper.

Also remember, if you then decide u want to keep Zeke. You’re trying to re-sign him when he is two years older and he will Be worn down before the end of his contract. That’s why I think signing him now is the smartest move. So that you hold his rights the entire time you can expect elite production and then you are out from under his contract when the downhill slide happens.

 

[uvaballa]

They have him “cheap” for one more year.

The 5th year option is not cheap. His cap hit the first year of a new deal would likely be cheaper.

Also remember, if you then decide u want to keep Zeke. You’re trying to re-sign him when he is two years older and he will Be worn down before the end of his contract. That’s why I think signing him now is the smartest move. So that you hold his rights the entire time you can expect elite production and then you are out from under his contract when the downhill slide happens.

You said the key word “worn down” before the end of the next contract. Even more reason they should think about no re-signing him. I remember fans having the same break down when they let Murray go to the Eagles. The RB position will be ok.

 

[xwalker]

I thought they would get a comp pick when someone else signed him? That's not "nothing", right?

Those are not guaranteed. The comp pick formula involves all gains/losses and contract values.

The Ravens lost CJ Mosley and he received a 17M per year contract, yet the Ravens don't get a comp pick for him...

 

[Denim Chicken]

I would love to know how balance other teams were in comparison.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct

 

[Stash]

Those are not guaranteed. The comp pick formula involves all gains/losses and contract values.

The Ravens lost CJ Mosley and he received a 17M per year contract, yet the Ravens don't get a comp pick for him...

Sure if you believe the Cowboys would be big enough players in free agency to completely offset it. Do you believe that to be the case?

 

[Whirlwin]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct

Thank you, surprising to see Seattle at the bottom with Russell Wilson

 

[xwalker]

Sure if you believe the Cowboys would be big enough players in free agency to completely offset it. Do you believe that to be the case?

It's more complicated than that:

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/comp-pick-value-franchised-player-trades.435294/

 

[Hadenough]

Should the Cowboys top brass consider running Zeke Elliott like they did DeMarco Murray in 2014- Murray’s last great year as a Cowboy?

Murray led the NFL in rushing in 2014 with a league leading 1,845 yards and had a whopping 449 total touches for the year, which also led the league. Murray had that great 2014 season at the age of 26...and he was never the same after it. 2014 was Murray’s “contract year”, and the Cowboys famously decided eventually that he would not be worth paying market value long term, so Murray left after 5 very productive seasons

The Cowboys have an interesting crossroads coming with Ezekiel Elliott after the 2020 season. Sign him to a bigger long term deal, franchise tag him (which didn’t work out well with Pitts when they tagged LeVeon Bell) or just let him walk to some other team.

I know many here will disagree with me but I’m in favor of the letting him walk option. And here are my reasons in no particular order of importance:

• His off field behavior placed this team’s ability to count on his services in jeopardy in 2017 and maybe again this coming season. That suspension in 2017 cost this team dearly. (The most important ability a player must have is availability to play) If Zeke doesn’t grow up and stop acting like a spoiled frat brat, he’s not worth making a centerpiece to your team.

• Although Zeke is very talented, a RBs talent fades faster than almost any other position player. Most really good RBs begin to show decline sometime after 5-8 seasons. It’s why most NFL teams don’t make the RB position worth a long term investment.

• If a RB has a season like DeMarco Murray, where they have over 400 touches in a season, a drop off in production usually happens the following season. The 400+ touch season is historically a killer for the long term effectiveness of NFL RBs.

• Remember Larry Johnson, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, James Wilder, Eddie George? They all led the league in rushing with over 400 carries. And within a year or two fell off the performance cliff.

So let’s use Zeke over and over the next two years. Pile on the touches. Maximize his use. Ride him to a Super Bowl? Because at the end of his 5 years here, he may not be worth keeping around much longer anyway.

Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe he’s worth making a big cap commitment after 5 seasons. Maybe Zeke is an outlier. If he’s used like we did DeMarco Murray, NFL history says otherwise. (Is Todd Gurley going to be another example of the need to not make a big RB commitment?)

I respect dissenting opinions. Should we keep Zeke long term? Or should we let these next 2 years be his swan song?

15 mil a year for Zeke is peanuts compared to what DE, QB, WR are getting. I think it's better to preserve Zeke by having a 2nd guy to take some of the load. Use him more like Saints were using Kamara and Ingram.

 

[JoeKing]

Make him run with the ball like he stole it. Zeke should always get the most carries in the league each season.

 

[JayFord]

He’s the #4 overall pick you run him forever

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Should the Cowboys top brass consider running Zeke Elliott like they did DeMarco Murray in 2014- Murray’s last great year as a Cowboy?

Murray led the NFL in rushing in 2014 with a league leading 1,845 yards and had a whopping 449 total touches for the year, which also led the league. Murray had that great 2014 season at the age of 26...and he was never the same after it. 2014 was Murray’s “contract year”, and the Cowboys famously decided eventually that he would not be worth paying market value long term, so Murray left after 5 very productive seasons

The Cowboys have an interesting crossroads coming with Ezekiel Elliott after the 2020 season. Sign him to a bigger long term deal, franchise tag him (which didn’t work out well with Pitts when they tagged LeVeon Bell) or just let him walk to some other team.

I know many here will disagree with me but I’m in favor of the letting him walk option. And here are my reasons in no particular order of importance:

• His off field behavior placed this team’s ability to count on his services in jeopardy in 2017 and maybe again this coming season. That suspension in 2017 cost this team dearly. (The most important ability a player must have is availability to play) If Zeke doesn’t grow up and stop acting like a spoiled frat brat, he’s not worth making a centerpiece to your team.

• Although Zeke is very talented, a RBs talent fades faster than almost any other position player. Most really good RBs begin to show decline sometime after 5-8 seasons. It’s why most NFL teams don’t make the RB position worth a long term investment.

• If a RB has a season like DeMarco Murray, where they have over 400 touches in a season, a drop off in production usually happens the following season. The 400+ touch season is historically a killer for the long term effectiveness of NFL RBs.

• Remember Larry Johnson, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, James Wilder, Eddie George? They all led the league in rushing with over 400 carries. And within a year or two fell off the performance cliff.

So let’s use Zeke over and over the next two years. Pile on the touches. Maximize his use. Ride him to a Super Bowl? Because at the end of his 5 years here, he may not be worth keeping around much longer anyway.

Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe he’s worth making a big cap commitment after 5 seasons. Maybe Zeke is an outlier. If he’s used like we did DeMarco Murray, NFL history says otherwise. (Is Todd Gurley going to be another example of the need to not make a big RB commitment?)

I respect dissenting opinions. Should we keep Zeke long term? Or should we let these next 2 years be his swan song?

So let’s use Zeke over and over the next two years. Pile on the touches. Maximize his use. Ride him to a Super Bowl? Because at the end of his 5 years here, he may not be worth keeping around much longer anyway.

Ya and Zeke and his agents are idiots ....you will have a hold-out and without Zeke our offense is R.I.P.
Now back to reality Zeke will soon be signing his new extended contract making him the highest paid HB in the NFL.
Having a better passing attack would go a long way in salvaging Zeke for the long haul and opening up more lanes as the defense won't be playing 8 man boxes all game long.

 

[xwalker]

They have him “cheap” for one more year.

The 5th year option is not cheap. His cap hit the first year of a new deal would likely be cheaper.

Also remember, if you then decide u want to keep Zeke. You’re trying to re-sign him when he is two years older and he will Be worn down before the end of his contract. That’s why I think signing him now is the smartest move. So that you hold his rights the entire time you can expect elite production and then you are out from under his contract when the downhill slide happens.

Using the first year cap hit is not a good method to compare.

The contract AAV is the best parameter for comparing to the Franchise Tag amount.

The team must on average take cap hits equal to the contract AAV each year.

They can "borrow" from future years by taking a 1st year cap hit less than AAV.
The team would have to repay the "borrowed" amount in future years.
They would repay by taking future cap hits of greater than AAV.
​

If you were allowed to defer the first 3 month of a new car loan:

If a 60 month loan was converted to 57 months with no payment the first 3 months, it would not make the car less expensive.
The total of the first 3 months payments would be divided by 57 and added to each of the 57 payments.​

 

[xwalker]

Murray was dealing with more injuries every year. He was at the age where he most likely wouldn't be playing at a high level for long and you could see a noticeable drop throughout the season. Zeke has not shown the same signs and hopefully he lasts. He seems a bit more durable than Murray at this point.

Murray was 26 in 2014.

Some reason thinking he was 28. Either way you could see him slowing down. He had always been dealing with leg, knee, or foot injuries it seemed every year.

Murray was 27 when he was a free agent.

Many analysis have been published over the years indicating age 28 is when the majority of RBs start to significantly decline.

Based on the probabilities from the history of RBs, the team that signed Murray had 1 or 2 years of his services before they should expect a significant decline.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Should the Cowboys top brass consider running Zeke Elliott like they did DeMarco Murray in 2014- Murray’s last great year as a Cowboy?

Murray led the NFL in rushing in 2014 with a league leading 1,845 yards and had a whopping 449 total touches for the year, which also led the league. Murray had that great 2014 season at the age of 26...and he was never the same after it. 2014 was Murray’s “contract year”, and the Cowboys famously decided eventually that he would not be worth paying market value long term, so Murray left after 5 very productive seasons

The Cowboys have an interesting crossroads coming with Ezekiel Elliott after the 2020 season. Sign him to a bigger long term deal, franchise tag him (which didn’t work out well with Pitts when they tagged LeVeon Bell) or just let him walk to some other team.

I know many here will disagree with me but I’m in favor of the letting him walk option. And here are my reasons in no particular order of importance:

• His off field behavior placed this team’s ability to count on his services in jeopardy in 2017 and maybe again this coming season. That suspension in 2017 cost this team dearly. (The most important ability a player must have is availability to play) If Zeke doesn’t grow up and stop acting like a spoiled frat brat, he’s not worth making a centerpiece to your team.

• Although Zeke is very talented, a RBs talent fades faster than almost any other position player. Most really good RBs begin to show decline sometime after 5-8 seasons. It’s why most NFL teams don’t make the RB position worth a long term investment.

• If a RB has a season like DeMarco Murray, where they have over 400 touches in a season, a drop off in production usually happens the following season. The 400+ touch season is historically a killer for the long term effectiveness of NFL RBs.

• Remember Larry Johnson, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, James Wilder, Eddie George? They all led the league in rushing with over 400 carries. And within a year or two fell off the performance cliff.

So let’s use Zeke over and over the next two years. Pile on the touches. Maximize his use. Ride him to a Super Bowl? Because at the end of his 5 years here, he may not be worth keeping around much longer anyway.

Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe he’s worth making a big cap commitment after 5 seasons. Maybe Zeke is an outlier. If he’s used like we did DeMarco Murray, NFL history says otherwise. (Is Todd Gurley going to be another example of the need to not make a big RB commitment?)

I respect dissenting opinions. Should we keep Zeke long term? Or should we let these next 2 years be his swan song?

EMMITT SMITH

..............Games..........Games started..........Rush..........Yards..........
1991......16..................16...............................365.............1561
1992......16..................16...............................371.............1713
1993......14..................13 (hold out).............283.............1486
1994......15..................15..............................368..............1484
1995......16..................16..............................377..............1773

The next seven years as a Cowboy he averaged 292 carries per season
The next seven seasons as a Cowboy he posted 8206 yards
The next seven years as a Cowboy he averaged 15.42 games per season

Ezekiel Elliott

2016.....15.................15...............................322.................1631
2017.....10.................10...............................242.................983
2018.....15.................15...............................304.................1434

I'd suggest so far Zeke has less wear and year on his body than Emmitt. And this RB's wear out is a suggestions all things are the same, which they are not.

The league is in an ever evolving motion as far as what they think and believe about every aspect. Now it is fashionable to dump the RB before he gets old. Most of the football theories bandied about end up on this site as people regurgitate them as gospel. My take is about the time they catch on here they are history there.

I disagree dumping Zeke. This is a rare talent and if the line returns to its 2016 glory, this kid could play through a second contract before the shiny wears off.

My opinion, of course.

 

[HungryLion]

You said the key word “worn down” before the end of the next contract. Even more reason they should think about no re-signing him. I remember fans having the same break down when they let Murray go to the Eagles. The RB position will be ok.

You obviously haven’t read my previous posts in this thread. Zeke likely has 5 more years of elite production left before any significant drops.

I would prefer to have him all 5 of those years to try and win a championship.

 

[HungryLion]

Using the first year cap hit is not a good method to compare.

The contract AAV is the best parameter for comparing to the Franchise Tag amount.

The team must on average take cap hits equal to the contract AAV each year.

They can "borrow" from future years by taking a 1st year cap hit less than AAV.
The team would have to repay the "borrowed" amount in future years.
They would repay by taking future cap hits of greater than AAV.
​

If you were allowed to defer the first 3 month of a new car loan:

If a 60 month loan was converted to 57 months with no payment the first 3 months, it would not make the car less expensive.
The total of the first 3 months payments would be divided by 57 and added to each of the 57 payments.​

I understand all that xwalker. I know how the cap works.

But I’m also being honest about how the cowboys typically structure their contracts.

If you ride Zeke out for the last two years and then franchise him. You have him for 3 more seasons. And that is assuming he doesn’t decide to hold out and cause any issues. But then you will be forced to either let Zeke walk. Or extend him at a point in time when he only has 2 years of elite production left.

If you resign him now. You will pay him more over the next 3 seasons, than you would without re-signing him. But you could have him locked up for 5 more seasons, which are likely to be the last 5 before his production nosedives. By the last two years of his deal, Zeke likely isn’t the highest paid RB anymore either.


So the option seems to be. Keep Zeke for 3 years at a cheaper rate. But then be forced to either let him
Walk and miss out on 2 years of elite production. Or resign him to a contract that will then last until an age where he is on the decline and not producing at an elite level. And thus you are overpaying him
Relative to his production.

Or pay more money over the next 3 years. But have Zeke locked up for the remaining 5 years of likely elite production. And then be done with his contract at around the exact time you can expect his decline to start. Locking him up long term now also removes the possible risk of him deciding to holdout and force your hand at an earlier date as well.

If Zeke holds out next offseason or the season you try franchising him. Then he forces your hand to either let him walk, or sign him long term and have the back end of that contract take place in years after you expect his production to decline. Thus likely leading to future dead money against the cap. Sign him now and you will pay a bit more upfront. But likely create a scenario where you avoid any dead money at all, because he is producing for the entire length of the contract.

 

[xwalker]

I understand all that xwalker. I know how the cap works.

But I’m also being honest about how the cowboys typically structure their contracts.

If you ride Zeke out for the last two years and then franchise him. You have him for 3 more seasons. And that is assuming he doesn’t decide to hold out and cause any issues. But then you will be forced to either let Zeke walk. Or extend him at a point in time when he only has 2 years of elite production left.

If you resign him now. You will pay him more over the next 3 seasons, than you would without re-signing him. But you could have him locked up for 5 more seasons, which are likely to be the last 5 before his production nosedives. By the last two years of his deal, Zeke likely isn’t the highest paid RB anymore either.


So the option seems to be. Keep Zeke for 3 years at a cheaper rate. But then be forced to either let him
Walk and miss out on 2 years of elite production. Or resign him to a contract that will then last until an age where he is on the decline and not producing at an elite level. And thus you are overpaying him
Relative to his production.

Or pay more money over the next 3 years. But have Zeke locked up for the remaining 5 years of likely elite production. And then be done with his contract at around the exact time you can expect his decline to start. Locking him up long term now also removes the possible risk of him deciding to holdout and force your hand at an earlier date as well.

If Zeke holds out next offseason or the season you try franchising him. Then he forces your hand to either let him walk, or sign him long term and have the back end of that contract take place in years after you expect his production to decline. Thus likely leading to future dead money against the cap. Sign him now and you will pay a bit more upfront. But likely create a scenario where you avoid any dead money at all, because he is producing for the entire length of the contract.

I was only referring to the comparison values with 1st year cap hit not being relevant to any decisions.

I was not arguing for or against re-signing Zeke now, later or Franchising him.

 

[HungryLion]

I was only referring to the comparison values with 1st year cap hit not being relevant to any decisions.

I was not arguing for or against re-signing Zeke now, later or Franchising him.

Fair enough. I really see the merit to both sides to be honest. But I honestly would prefer to hold onto Zeke until he starts to decline. Rather than let him walk. Even if that costs more money. I just think he is that good he is worth it.