Sneak Peek of 2nd Down Play-Calling Study

[Jongb35]

I am not saying Garrett isn't predictable, I am merely saying that the predictability might be overstated.

I'd imagine most team runs on second and long regardless of the preceding play. The best QB last year had a 70% completion percentage. I don't know the stats, but I would imagine that a larger percentage of rushing plays gain positive yards. Knowing that, how many teams would run more on 2nd downs after minimal gain on 1st just to make sure 3rd was a managable down?

That is why I broke down the plays according to yards to go. Yes, teams will run more in certain situations, but that play call SHOULDNT be the result of whether the previous play was a run or pass.

For example, if the Cowboys ran for 4 yards on first down, Garrett is more likely to pass on 2nd down. If they passed for the exact same amount, however, he is more likely to run on 2nd down. That's my point, and where he needs to improve.

I don't really care about the rate at which he runs or when he does it, but just that the rate remains relatively even whether the previous play was a pass or a run.