Some things I've learned about the NFL

Bobhaze said:
Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:
  • In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
  • The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
  • All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
  • Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!
Two guarantees I will make every season:
  1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
  2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.
I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!
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You can’t draw definitive conclusions from a single Wednesday night game between two familiar teams, even if it resembled a past Super Bowl matchup. The game started slowly, was heavily defensive, and ultimately the team that showed patience and determination prevailed. It was a close contest, any number of plays could have swung the outcome, and overtime was a real possibility. I’m not claiming any profound insights; it’s just football, and a lot will change between now and the end of the season.

I agree with you, preseason strength of schedule discussions is largely meaningless, as they reflect last year’s teams and don’t predict these matchups.

The only way to truly evaluate a team, including the Dallas Cowboys, is over the full 17-game season. Early struggles don’t define the outcome; it can take time for a new defense to gel, and that’s why you play the entire season before making judgments.
 
Reality said:
I repeat the same thing every year when the laughable "strength of schedule" lists come out because SoS isn't relevant until the end of the season and even then, you need to exclude the games your team was in to get an accurate number.

I would also add that there are no "shocking wins" in week one games. Maybe several games later you can look back and wonder, "how did they beat that team?" but after one game, you are what you until you are not.


One good or bad play can change the context of the game at any moment.
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Exactly timing a little luck just like the 49ers will not have to play the Rams with Aaron Donald Some teams won't have to play us without Tyler Smith but some others will later in the season it's unfair but that's how it works that's an advantage game one for the 49ers That is why strength of schedule is ridiculous because teams have changed some of the players changed some of the coaches have changed It's a different year the scenarios and situational football will change the ball bounces differently this year but again some of it is luck the timing of it new England got lucky making the Super Bowl last year just like in my opinion the 17 Eagles, They played some injured teams in the playoffs Any shows because they lost the Super Bowl now they lost again to the same team and they didn't look good.

So I agree I hate the strength of schedule and things will be different the first four games for a lot of teams then they will be later in the season that's why you have to play 17 games to really know your team people are gonna be jumping ship jumping off cliffs if the Cowboys start slow and struggle trying to find themselves and the identity on defense but I'm telling you this is why games like in 2018 when the Cowboys started what three and five ended up 10 and 6 made it to the second round of the playoffs you can't lose hope just because of how your team starts and you can't get over confident like what was it the Saints last year people had them going to the NFC championship game after the first four or five games and what happened to the Saints? Or wait a minute was that 2024 my mistake I think that was 2024 that's when the Cowboys started really bad and before Prescott got hurt but that I'm just saying you can't even have too much exuberance when your team starts really hot because it can fall off.


Have witnessed it too many times So I understand that is why you play the full schedule that's the only way you'll know what kind of team you have...
 
pitt33 said:
Question for the SoS naysayers..

If degree of schedule difficulty is so inconsequential, why do Vegas oddsmakers have us as underdogs against those teams in question? I’m specifically referring to win probability %.
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Please show us these Vegas oddsmakers and how they have the Cowboys as underdogs against those teams in question.

IMG-0929.gif
 
Bobhaze said:
One of the “bad surprises” each year.
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I’ve been saying this for years now. Glad you guys are finally catching on. I mean it's common sense that SOS predictions are worthless. Take last night. SB QB goes out of the game and possibly future games. AJ Brown may have torn his Achilles. The teams are different from last year. The coaching is different from last year. Just common sense that SOS is pretty much worthless.
 
Bobhaze said:
Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:
  • In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
  • The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
  • All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
  • Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!
Two guarantees I will make every season:
  1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
  2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.
I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!
Click to expand...
I agree. 4-6 games is a solid chunk to develop a team and know what you have. The first couple of games, pretty much league-wide plays sloppy football, until they get the cobwebs out.
Also, we have until November 10th to makes trades, so 4- 6 games makes that a more thorough decision.
 
Whirlwin said:
He pays attention to detail, I think he sleeps on it, wakes up and post, he just doesn’t shoot from the hip,
And it’s elegant, lol
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Bob's post was so simple, cut N dry. Has all the variables of NFL football.

Nothing more to add.....lol.. ;)
 
The first 4 or 5 games of the season tell you pretty much what each team is going to be. It's not necessarily the wins and losses, it is mostly how they play the games. You can tell the teams that have that little extra and which teams seem to lack chemistry or something. This is not 100% true, but I think it is mostly true. Of course, over the course of a season there will be injuries. Some will have greater impact on a team than others. Health is so important towards the end of the season, but the 1st 4 or 5 games end the hype for most teams and give fans a sense of reality about their team.
 
While I don’t believe every team needs it, I also don’t believe that any Dallas team can ever win three consecutive road playoff games just to get to a SB.

You’ve really gotta win your division to go far, and while we don’t know what’s what early on….especially the current team…they can’t bury themselves and expect to climb out of it. Division tiebreaking games are extremely important.

Of course, we also choke at home with high seeds, but IMO they almost need to grab the one seed if they are ever going to win a championship.

So yes, it might take time to figure it all out, but don’t make it impossible later on.
 
kskboys said:
Yes, Coogsywoogsy, but that was before we rebuilt the D and FIIIIIINNNNNNNAAAAALLLLYYYYY got us some hosses for the DLine. The game will be completely different now.
Click to expand...
On paper it is different, we haven't seen a thing yet my buddy, but with the changes in my heart of hearts I feel we will be better
 
Bobhaze said:
Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:
  • In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
  • The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
  • All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
  • Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!
Two guarantees I will make every season:
  1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
  2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.
I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!
Click to expand...
There's also a 50% chance a team that gets to the super bowl will be a team that didn't make the playoffs the year before.
 
Rockport said:
Please show us these Vegas oddsmakers and how they have the Cowboys as underdogs against those teams in question.

IMG-0929.gif
Click to expand...
We are not favored against the Ravens. We will be underdogs against the Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Right now those teams are better than Dallas. I would not bet in favor of Dallas winning those games.

I see Dallas as a 9-8 team. And I’m basing that on their schedule.
 
pitt33 said:
We are not favored against the Ravens. We will be underdogs against the Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Right now those teams are better than Dallas. I would not bet in favor of Dallas winning those games.

I see Dallas as a 9-8 team. And I’m basing that on their schedule.
Click to expand...
So that’s 4 games you predict they’ll not be favored? I’ll take 13-4.
 
pitt33 said:
Oh yeah?

Not me.

I’m all on board with strength of schedule.

I’ll tell ya what’s silly..

Preseason hype based on training camp darlings and meaningless games against scrubs.
Click to expand...
Why? There's not much else to get excited about that time of year and what difference would it make to you?
Nothing wrong with rooting for underdogs.
 
Rockport said:
So that’s 4 games you predict they’ll not be favored? I’ll take 13-4.
Click to expand...
Jesus Rock you’re killing me brother.

I didn’t want to go through the whole schedule. People on hear say they think SoS is poppycock. If that’s the case, then how does everyone that participates in the season win/loss record poll come up with their answer?

Am I missing something here??
 
Bobhaze said:
Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:
  • In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
  • The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
  • All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
  • Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!
Two guarantees I will make every season:
  1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
  2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.
I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!
Click to expand...
I learned NFL stands for "Not For Long".
 
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