QB's are gold, but so are first round draft picks.
There is no question that Romo is elite. There is question about whether or not he can ever stay healthy over a 16-game season again.
The only comparable scenarios to Romo are the Carson Palmer and Drew Bledsoe trades - both fetched first rounders, but both were also 31 at the time. Both also weren't coming off consecutive debilitating back/shoulder injuries. Romo will be 37 by the time next season rolls around.
So what's all that worth? It's worth something, but definitely not a first rounder.
Agreed with your evaluation.
I dont think Romo can be traded for this year due to cap hit.
The 2017 cap situation is possible but the situation seems to be unlikely.
1. If Romo comes back and plays great the remainder of the year, then Romo would be worth a lot.
However, if we get deep in the playoffs, Romo will not be traded because we want to win.
This would be our ideal situation with a strong QB situation, however unlikely I think this is...
2. If Romo comes back and plays so-so, then he is not worth much.
If he cannot play well with our OL, Zeke and Dez, then how would he do on another team (other than Pats)?
3. If Romo comes back and plays well but gets hurt seriously again, then that would be 3 bad injuries in 2 seasons.
Who would pay much for that track record?
4. The only other scenario is if Romo comes back and Dak remains the starter, then Romo could be traded away in 2017.
In that case, who would gambled a first round pick?
No one would trust his heath since he would be not be tested after the latest injury, and would have only played 4 games in 2 seasons with 2 bad injuries.
Though the risk is reduced if the bonus is not transferred during a trade, the new team can simply cut Romo if he gets injured?