Staying Away from Speed WRs

[masomenos]

With the combine approaching I thought I'd look into the stats for "speed" WRs, the burners who run under 4.4. This year it's likely we'll see about 6 guys rocket past the stopwatches in the 4.3 range; DeSean Jackson, Andre Caldwell, Donnie Avery, Harry Douglas, Eddie Royal and Dexter Jackson all have a legitimate change to run under 4.4. And, largely due to their blistering 40's a lot of those guys will be taken in the first three rounds. However, if history is any indication, they could be in for some difficult times in the NFL.

1999
Karsten Bailey - 4.33 - 3rd round
Rondel Mendez - 4.26 - 7th round

2000
R.J. Soward - 4.37 - 1st round
Chris Cole - 4.35 - 3rd round

2001
Santana Moss - 4.31 - 1st round
Chris Chambers - 4.33 - 2nd round
Ken Yon Rambo - 4.34 - 7th round
John Capel - 4.39 - 7th round


2002
Javon Walker - 4.38 - 1st round
Tim Carter - 4.32 - 2nd round
Clif Russell - 4.36 - 3rd round
Daryl Jones - 4.35 - 7th round
Aaron Lockett - 4.31 - 7th round


2003
Tyrone Calico - 4.34 - 2nd round
Bethel Johnson - 4.38 - 2nd round

2004
Lee Evans - 4.39 - 1st round
Samie Parker - 4.39 - 4th round
Carlos Francis - 4.33 - 4th round
Drew Carter - 4.36 - 5th round

2005
Troy Williamson - 4.32 - 1st round
Terrence Murphy - 4.39 - 2nd round
Mark Bradley - 4.37 - 2nd round
Roscoe Parrish - 4.37 - 2nd round
Cro Thorpe - 4.39 - 4th round
Jerome Mathis - 4.28 - 4th round

2006
Santonio Holmes - 4.38 - 1st round
Chad Jackson - 4.32 - 2nd round
Sinorice Moss - 4.32 - 2nd round
Willie Reid - 4.34 - 3rd round
Devin Aromoshadu - 4.35 - 7th round

2007
I'm omitting 2007 simply because I don't think one year gives enough indication of a players ability. There are some high profile names in there like Calvin Johnson, Robert Meachem and Ted Ginn Jr.

Not a whole lot to get excited about. Santonio Holmes, Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Chris Chambers and Santana Moss are the only names worth mentioning out of the 30 sub 4.4 guys drafted from 1999 to 2006. To look into it a little deeper we'll look at those 5 guys, how many 1000 yard seasons they've had, how many double digit TD seasons they've had, and how many times they've averaged over 15 yards a catch.

1000 Yard Seasons
Santana Moss 2 - (seven seasons)
Lee Evans 1 - (four seasons)
Javon Walker 1 - (six seasons)
Chris Chambers 1 - (eight seasons)
Santonio Holmes 0 - (two seasons)

10+ TD Seasons
Chris Chambers - 2
Javon Walker - 1
Santana Moss - 1
Santonio Holmes - 0
Lee Evans - 0

Seasons @ 15YPC +
Lee Evans - 4
Javon Walker - 3
Santana Moss - 2
Chris Chambers - 3
Santonio Holmes - 2

If you lower the bar to 900 receiving yards and 9 TDs then the results barely change. Even if you drop it to 8 TDs you only see an increase of 1 TD for a couple players. So even most of the successful "speed" guys don't fully live up to their draft status. Yes you can make arguments for each player: Evans doesn't have a QB, Walker was hurt, Moss has been nicked up and switched teams, Chambers played in Miami and Holmes plays behind Hines Ward. But you can make excuses for almost any players production not being up to par (see Julius Jones, see Roy Williams).

Of the group Evans and Holmes are probably the best. Chambers was once dubbed one of the most overrated players in the league by KC Joyner (or someone at football outsiders) and it's hard to make a case that Moss or Walker are anything special at this point in their careers. People love to put emphasis on speed, but, as others have shown in the past, the 40 is a very poor benchmark for a WR to be judged by. If anything, a sub 4.4 40 seems to have a negative correlation with success in the NFL. Just something to keep in mind.

 

[Hailmary]

You forgot Laverneus Coles. I don't recall what his exact 40 was, but I'm sure it was sub 4.4

3 1000yd seasons. 3 800+ yd seasons.

 

[TheCount]

You should do a comparison to WR's in general. I don't think speed is the issue, there are simply a lot of busts (or perceived busts) at skill positions.

You could probably do a comparable comparison that results in a "stay away from tall receivers" or "stay away from strong armed QB's"

 

[masomenos]

You forgot Laverneus Coles. I don't recall what his exact 40 was, but I'm sure it was sub 4.4

3 1000yd seasons. 3 800+ yd seasons.

He was actually clocked at 4.47 at the combine. Not sure about his pro day.

 

[burmafrd]

Do one for WRs that ran 4.5 to 4.6; or 4.4 to 4.5; then make a claim.

 

[masomenos]

You should do a comparison to WR's in general. I don't think speed is the issue, there are simply a lot of busts (or perceived busts) at skill positions.

You could probably do a comparable comparison that results in a "stay away from tall receivers" or "stay away from strong armed QB's"

Perhaps another day lol. I see what you're saying though. I think something that would be useful would be to look at the top 15 WRs over the past 3 years or so and see what they have in common in terms of combine performance and (if I can find it) college production.

 

[Doomsday101]

I would agree that no WR should be judged on speed alone. I don't care if a guy runs a 4.2 if he can't run routs or can't catch the ball then he is pretty worthless as a WR.

 

[burmafrd]

Most of the real burners were more track guys then football players. And in the NFL that makes a big difference. Bob Hayes is still the ONLY world class track guy that ever made it to the pro bowl.

 

[masomenos]

Do one for WRs that ran 4.5 to 4.6; or 4.4 to 4.5; then make a claim.

You do those and disprove me lol. The fact is that there were 13 4.3 WRs drafted in the first or second round from 1999 to 2006. None have really been standout performers on a consistent basis. Thats a success rate of 0%. Wanna make a bet on the success rate being better for either of the other categories?

 

[Hailmary]

He was actually clocked at 4.47 at the combine. Not sure about his pro day.

According to Wiki, he was timed at 4.22 during the combines. I realize Wiki's not always dependable w/ their facts, so I'll try to find other results to support this.

I think 4.22 sounds right to me however. I remember going into the draft there were a lot of red flags concerning Coles. I think it was his 40 during the combines that allowed the Jets to take a chance on him during the first day. It was 8 yrs ago, so I'm not sure if I trust my memory....

 

[Iago33]

Nice analysis. Thanks.

 

[masomenos]

According to Wiki, he was timed at 4.22 during the combines. I realize Wiki's not always dependable w/ their facts, so I'll try to find other results to support this.

I think 4.22 sounds right to me however. I remember going into the draft there were a lot of red flags concerning Coles. I think it was his 40 during the combines that allowed the Jets to take a chance on him during the first day. It was 8 yrs ago, so I'm not sure if I trust my memory....

I remember him being a burner too, but I'm just going off of what the database shows. Perhaps he ran a 4.22 at his pro day, or maybe the database is wrong lol. I don't think it really would change the data much be including him though. He's a player that averaged over 15 YPC once, has never produced a large amount of TDs but has been fairly consistent at producing receptions and yards.

 

[cobra]

Your record is insufficient.

Donte Stallworth is a decent WR and he ran something sub 4.3 in 2001.

Andre Johnson had some burning sub 4.4 times.

Reggie Wayne has 4.4 or better.

And I'm pretty sure Randy Moss did, as well.


____________

I think the obvious point is don't draft a guy who otherwise has nothing going for him except for a fast 40 time.

To say that one should stay away from an otherwise quality WR because he ran a fast 40 time is completely wrong.

 

[masomenos]

Your record is insufficient.

Donte Stallworth is a decent WR and he ran something sub 4.3 in 2001.

Andre Johnson had some burning sub 4.4 times.

Reggie Wayne has 4.4 or better.

And I'm pretty sure Randy Moss did, as well.


____________

I think the obvious point is don't draft a guy who otherwise has nothing going for him except for a fast 40 time.

To say that one should stay away from an otherwise quality WR because he ran a fast 40 time is completely wrong.

Moss was drafted in 98 I believe, I only have access to the information from 1999 on. You're right about Stallworth, I remember him running something ridiculous, maybe low 4.3s or 4.2s. But he hasn't lived up to his first round selection either. Andre Johnson's time is listed at 4.40 that's why I didn't include him. Reggie Wayne was listed at 4.45 although that number may be from his pro day.

And the data seems to suggest that it isn't completely wrong. I mean no you don't want to pass on a guy like Calvin Johnson because he runs in the 4.3s, but you also don't want to reach for a player whose a speed guy because you think you can develop his other skills, and that's what seems to happen more often than not.

 

[masomenos]

Matt Jones can be added to the list of sub 4.4 guys too. He's kind of a special case, but still, same result.

 

[Hailmary]

What database is this from?

 

[DaBoys4Life]

well i like lee evans santana moss santionio holmes to be fair chad jackson sinorce moss hasn't seen the field be it injury or depth of WR. I agree were fast WR are sort of a buyer beware you never know how they will translate in the NFL and they tend not. Javon Walker and Chris Chambers are solid player IMHO as long as Javon stays healthy he's one of the better WR in the league

 

[masomenos]

What database is this from?

NFL Draft Scout

 

[Marktui]

Thats why I always say never take too much with those 40 speeds. Wonder what Jerry Rice ran in the 40? I'll take good route runners and guys with football speed any day over track athletes.

 

[TheCount]

Thats why I always say never take too much with those 40 speeds. Wonder what Jerry Rice ran in the 40? I'll take good route runners and guys with football speed any day over track athletes.

While that's sound logic; What I don't get is why people always want to compare a guy to one of the best that ever did it. Everytime a RB comes into the combine and doesn't run well in the 40 but looked good in college, here comes people to compare him to Emmit like there are 100 Emmit Smiths in the league.

Everytime a WR doesn't run well, they want to compare him to Jerry.

You can make guys miss? Well you're like Barry Sanders.

It doesn't make any sense. How many Jerry Rice's has this league seen?