Stephen on Tuesday: "We will not be conservative"

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I think they might pay EVERYBODY because:

The NFL is entering its twilight years. Might as well go for it now.

People keep saying this year after year, yet it keeps making more and more money. The Salary cap has gone up ridiculous amounts in the last 4-5 years because of how much cash they’re raking in.

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/359486/

People have been saying this since the concussion and CTE stuff made headlines circa 2006-ish. Yet here we are, bigger than ever. What will be the NFL’s downfall this time?

 

[DFWJC]

So they may sign a 2nd or 3rd tier FA instead of a 4th or 5th tier.

Unless this means a 1st tier FA in that ET dude.

I guess some may consider him being a 1st tier FA.

I hear you.
But the top FA in the market is Lawrence.
Sign him to a realistic deal and they're off to a decent start.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

 

[GMO415]

All signs are pointing in the direction, that Jerry is becoming nearly desperate to win a SB before he dies. He is on the most important clock and He's not holding back.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

People keep saying this year after year, yet it keeps making more and more money. The Salary cap has gone up ridiculous amounts in the last 4-5 years because of how much cash they’re raking in.

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/359486/

People have been saying this since the concussion and CTE stuff made headlines circa 2006-ish. Yet here we are, bigger than ever. What will be the NFL’s downfall this time?

We’ll have a better sense when it comes time to negotiate new TV contracts. It’s not a gate-driven revenue business. It’s all about the TV deals.

The recent increases in revenue are all about TV deals signed in the past. The evidence is that ratings are trending down so future TV contracts may not be as lucrative.

 

[cowboyec]

Earl Thomas,S-Seattle.
Ndamukong Suh,DT-Rams.
Frank Clark,DE-Seattle.
LaAdrian Waddle,OT-Patriots.
Phillip Dorsett,WR-Patriots.
Jesse James,TE-Steelers.

w/fries and a coke....thanks.

 

[Stash]

All signs are pointing in the direction, that Jerry is becoming nearly desperate to win a SB before he dies. He is on the most important clock and He's not holding back.

I've heard and read in numerous places that Texans owner Bob McNair's passing really affected Jerry, and made him much more aware of his own mortality.

I don't think he will act as patiently as he has recently. And the trade of this year's 1st round pick may have been the first sign.

Putting Garrett in a do or die contract year may be another.

 

[John813]

So, they'll be ultra conservative.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

We’ll have a better sense when it comes time to negotiate new TV contracts. It’s not a gate-driven revenue business. It’s all about the TV deals.

The recent increases in revenue are all about TV deals signed in the past. The evidence is that ratings are trending down so future TV contracts may not be as lucrative.

It’ll still be a bidding war between the networks though. Could you imagine NBC finding out that CBS is trying to lowball the nfl for the AFC games? I could see it not progressing not quite as drastically like it did before, but for the deals to decline in value seems strong. But even then, what if their revenue went down to 7 billion a year? 5 billion? 3 billion? It would still be a strong league:

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

It’ll still be a bidding war between the networks though. Could you imagine NBC finding out that CBS is trying to lowball the nfl for the AFC games? I could see it not progressing not quite as drastically like it did before, but for the deals to decline in value seems strong. But even then, what if their revenue went down to 7 billion a year? 5 billion? 3 billion? It would still be a strong league:

Yeah maybe. I’m not sure. 2017 revenue was $14B. (Not sure about 2018.) At $7B revenue is cut in half. Would players be willing to take half the pay they currently get in light of ever-increasing awareness of the risks? This is where Erod’s other observation about the shrinking talent pool starts to really come into play. It’s one thing to continue to expect players to incur the long-term risks in exchange for ever-increasing mega-contracts. But is that a reasonable expectation if salaries start shrinking by as much as 50%? I don’t know.

 

[erod]

People keep saying this year after year, yet it keeps making more and more money. The Salary cap has gone up ridiculous amounts in the last 4-5 years because of how much cash they’re raking in.

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/359486/

People have been saying this since the concussion and CTE stuff made headlines circa 2006-ish. Yet here we are, bigger than ever. What will be the NFL’s downfall this time?

It has ZERO to do with ratings. The league is still wildly popular to watch.

Youth football participation is WAY down. Here in Texas, a lot of leagues have been reduced from 8-10 teams down to 2-3. Moms are preventing their boys from playing football.

And the lawsuits are brewing. One or two successful cases, and you'll see football get dropped from high schools one by one. Colleges will largely do the same, especially with the high school talent pool dried up.

The dominoes will eventually fall, and you'll have an NFL with no pool of players to draft from.

Will you be interested in that?

 

[Carson]

The one thing that sucks, in terms of being aggressive, is that you now HAVE to on the DL, particularly at DE. That makes it a lot harder to get value.

Depends on how they value Taco. Knowing the owners they won’t do much

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Yeah maybe. I’m not sure. 2017 revenue was $14B. (Not sure about 2018.) At $7B revenue is cut in half. Would players be willing to take half the pay they currently get in light of ever-increasing awareness of the risks? This is where Erod’s other observation about the shrinking talent pool starts to really come into play. It’s thing to continue to expect players to incur the long-term risks in exchange for ever-increasing mega-contracts. But is that a reasonable expectation if salaries start shrinking by as much as 50%? I don’t know.

I don’t think players are necessarily overpaid, but a lot of them don’t really have alternatives if their pay gets cut in half. Demarcus Lawrence only playing for 11 million a year, when he could alternatively retire and live off of the 30ish million he’s made for the rest of his life? Maybe open a restaurant and live off that. Players today would say they won’t pay for less, but once it happens and they have to make that call for real, I bet a whole lot would play for a small fraction of what they do than just retire to nothing.

 

[CouchCoach]

There you have it......now win mode. Guess the question now is defining Stephen's definition of aggressive(lol).

Operative words there are "with our personnel". Signing your own isn't aggressive, it's defensive. Signing other team's starting personnel is aggressive.

 

[GMO415]

I've heard and read in numerous places that Texans owner Bob McNair's passing really affected Jerry, and made him much more aware of his own mortality.

I don't think he will act as patiently as he has recently. And the trade of this year's 1st round pick may have been the first sign.

Putting Garrett in a do or die contract year may be another.

Not signing Garrett, tells we JJ thinks this team should do whatever it takes to win a SB now. We don't make it to the NFC Championship game next season, JG is fired.

 

[Idgit]

This means they make an actual run at Earl Thomas.

 

[Stash]

Not signing Garrett, tells we JJ thinks this team should do whatever it takes to win a SB now. We don't make it to the NFC Championship game next season, JG is fired.

Stephen has effectively said that very thing.

 

[SoupcanSam]

So they may sign a 2nd or 3rd tier FA instead of a 4th or 5th tier.

Unless this means a 1st tier FA in that ET dude.

I guess some may consider him being a 1st tier FA.

Really imo I believe we are talented enough to where we can plug in decent 2nd and maybe 3rd tier FA and run strong, especially on defense.

Put in an inexpensive WR or safety on our team and it can go a long way. I believe our talent overall has come a long way.

I dont chuckle too much at lower tiers if our team has a decent plug in play situation going on.

No if this was a few years back or more then I'd say no.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

I don’t think players are necessarily overpaid, but a lot of them don’t really have alternatives if their pay gets cut in half. Demarcus Lawrence only playing for 11 million a year, when he could alternatively retire and live off of the 30ish million he’s made for the rest of his life? Maybe open a restaurant and live off that. Players today would say they won’t pay for less, but once it happens and they have to make that call for real, I bet a whole lot would play for a small fraction of what they do than just retire to nothing.

I think that’s probably right. But the real problem would be at lower levels. If you’re an elite athlete at a young age, why chase a career full of long-term risks where you can make $10M a year as a top player when you could focus your efforts instead on baseball or basketball and earn multiples of that amount with less health risk? The parents of young athletes are likely to be especially alive to the alternatives and will funnel their kids into the safer, more lucrative sports.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

It has ZERO to do with ratings. The league is still wildly popular to watch.

Youth football participation is WAY down. Here in Texas, a lot of leagues have been reduced from 8-10 teams down to 2-3. Moms are preventing their boys from playing football.

And the lawsuits are brewing. One or two successful cases, and you'll see football get dropped from high schools one by one. Colleges will largely do the same, especially with the high school talent pool dried up.

The dominoes will eventually fall, and you'll have an NFL with no pool of players to draft from.

Will you be interested in that?

Poorer neighborhoods will always have dreams of riches and celebrityism. While I agree youth football may even become extinct at some point, high schools dropping their football programs doesnt seem to be effected by this just yet.

The NFL has a massive partner in this they can watch closely to predict their fate: the NCAA. From my limited knowledge of their situation, this concussion and CTE and lowered NFL ratings stuff hasn’t really affected them at all. If players are still their playing football at the highest amateur level, then they probably still want to get paid millions to do it for a living, even if it’s less millions than the last generation got.

But with the NCAA going strong, perhaps the NFL’s issues have less to do with the aforementioned, and may be more aligned with Goodell, with off field issues and punishments, with officiating and parity problems. Relatively fixable things.

But if there is a major pushback toward football brewing, that’s 2 huge organizations who would do something about it, not just 1.