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CATCH17

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Not even checking my retirement account. I have 30-years to recover, but I feel horrible for those who don't. At the same time, things are still up from 4-years ago and I feel like anyone close to retirement should have probably shifted their investments to something low risk a long time ago. Then again, I'm an idiot at this. When I get to the redzone of retirement, I'm going to play it safe and go entirely low-risk. Just a personal belief of mine but you can't build an entire retirement in a few years. That's why they tell you to invest early.

I have a 401k but I have set up a IRA yet. I'm like you.. I want low risk because I don't really want this to become a hobby lol. It bores me.

I'm going to set up a Roth IRA and get a S&P 500 index fund..

I'm very noobie to stocks but i've been following S&P for about a year just to see the Macro and I didn't start a account because I felt it was inflated.

Well now I want to get in but now i'm that guy trying to catch it at it's lowest.

Do you guys think this thing is going low for awhile?

I heard today Amazon may shut down their shipping for awhile except for things like meds and surely that would drop the market..

Again.. I'm a noobie and I just want to deal with Index funds that grow over time.
 
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Rockport

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I have a 401k but I have set up a IRA yet. I'm like you.. I want low risk because I don't really want this to become a hobby lol. It bores me.

I'm going to set up a Roth IRA and get a S&P 500 index fund.. Probably vtsax with Vanguard.

I'm very noobie to stocks but i've been following S&P for about a year just to see the Macro and I didn't start a account because I felt it was inflated.

Well now I want to get in but now i'm that guy trying to catch it at it's lowest.

Do you guys think this thing is going low for awhile?

I heard today Amazon may shut down their shipping for awhile except for things like meds and surely that would drop the market..

Again.. I'm a noobie and I just want to deal with Index funds that grow over time.
Amazon just said they're going to hire an additional 100,000 workers to help with the increased demand.
You can't time the market. That's a recipe for disaster. I'm not saying now is or isn't a time to get in because I'm a layman like yourself. I would talk to a professional. Don't any other advice from anyone especially from someone here.
 

morasp

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I have a 401k but I have set up a IRA yet. I'm like you.. I want low risk because I don't really want this to become a hobby lol. It bores me.

I'm going to set up a Roth IRA and get a S&P 500 index fund..

I'm very noobie to stocks but i've been following S&P for about a year just to see the Macro and I didn't start a account because I felt it was inflated.

Well now I want to get in but now i'm that guy trying to catch it at it's lowest.

Do you guys think this thing is going low for awhile?

I heard today Amazon may shut down their shipping for awhile except for things like meds and surely that would drop the market..

Again.. I'm a noobie and I just want to deal with Index funds that grow over time.
It's too early to buy into the market.
 

YosemiteSam

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I'll say this. Anyone who says, "you should buy $x" or even, you should buy now is scamming you. Even if they truly do not believe they are. (ie, not intentionally giving you bad advice)

Nothing is free and if someone is telling you to buy something. They are either
  1. Likely already own it. You buying it helps their cause. The more people are buying it, the higher the price goes. Penny stock email scams were notorious for this. It's called a Pump and Dump scam.
  2. Have some other incentive for you to do so. For instance, Jim Cramer from CNBC tells you to buy $x stock helps his own cause even if he doesn't actual own the stock.
Jim Cramer is considered an expert. (I refer to TV guys as talking heads) Which is why he is on TV. He is wrong just as much as everyone else. For instance, after the multiple large market drops, he was telling everyone to buy on the dip! Now (at least last time I heard him) he was saying don't! (so he already burned some unsuspecting investors who listen to him) So if you're buying based on what Jim Cramer says. (or anyone else telling you to buy) You're likely to get taken to the cleaners.

The reason he recommends stocks even if he doesn't own them? Because that is what he gets paid to do. If he didn't. He wouldn't have a job! There are also other under the table ways he can make money doing this without owning the stock.

Not to mention this doosie!
Cramer was also an "editor at large" for SmartMoney magazine and was accused of unethical practices, when he made a $2 million personal gain after buying stocks just before his recommendation article was published.

Read about several of his doosies on his wikipedia page.

Sometimes the advise is good advice. Sometimes it's just talking heads talking. Either way. It's dangerous to take financial "buy" advise from anyone if you are unable to tell if what they are saying is true.

If someone recommends a stock to me. I don't always dismiss it out of hand. Many times I already know about the stock, but if I don't. I will do an initial investigation on that stock. Many you can dismiss out of hand just by looking at the company details from 10 feet away at say the free site finance.yahoo.com (or whatever website you choose to use)

The only reason I recommend index funds is because they are extremely simplistic and you do not need to know the details of all the stocks inside them. You just need to understand the general purpose of that index fund. There are different index funds and you should understand what each index fund is (it's purpose) and understand it's diversification. ie, Nasdaq is an index of stuff that trades on the Nasdaq, but's it's pretty tech centric. That might diversify your tech holdings for the most part, but it doesn't diversify your portfolio as well as it should be due to being tech heavy. On the other hand, the Dow Index fund is 30 blue chip stocks across many sectors that help diversify your portfolio. The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies.

For most (including my) IRA and 401k. Funds are all you can use and if you just want to set it and forget it. Go for well balanced index funds rather than sector specific funds. If you want to manage it, diversify your fund holdings to the sectors you think will do well while always keeping a portion for a well diversified index fund as a stable base.

If you just want your own portfolio, (not an IRA / 401k, etc) you can manage it the same way as you would an IRA / 401k. Or you can invest more time and risk into individual stocks. Individual stocks means you either pay a professional to do the head work for you, or you must spend the time to do (including learning to do it) yourself.

Oh and before I forget. Funds charge fees. Before buying a fund, check the fees. Index funds are usually by far the cheapest. Fees can eat away extremely large sums of money over 10-40 years if you don't keep your eye on what you're being charged!
 
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CATCH17

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I'll say this. Anyone who says, "you should buy $x" or even, you should buy now is scamming you. Even if they truly do not believe they are. (ie, not intentionally giving you bad advice)

Nothing is free and if someone is telling you to buy something. They are either
  1. Likely already own it. You buying it helps their cause. The more people are buying it, the higher the price goes. Penny stock email scams were notorious for this. It's called a Pump and Dump scam.
  2. Have some other incentive for you to do so. For instance, Jim Cramer from CNBC tells you to buy $x stock helps his own cause even if he doesn't actual own the stock.
Jim Cramer is considered an expert. (I refer to TV guys as talking heads) Which is why he is on TV. He is wrong just as much as everyone else. For instance, after the multiple large market drops, he was telling everyone to buy on the dip! Now (at least last time I heard him) he was saying don't! (so he already burned some unsuspecting investors who listen to him) So if you're buying based on what Jim Cramer says. (or anyone else telling you to buy) You're likely to get taken to the cleaners.

The reason he recommends stocks even if he doesn't own them? Because that is what he gets paid to do. If he didn't. He wouldn't have a job! There are also other under the table ways he can make money doing this without owning the stock.

Not to mention this doosie!
Cramer was also an "editor at large" for SmartMoney magazine and was accused of unethical practices, when he made a $2 million personal gain after buying stocks just before his recommendation article was published.

Read about several of his doosies on his wikipedia page.

Sometimes the advise is good advice. Sometimes it's just talking heads talking. Either way. It's dangerous to take financial "buy" advise from anyone if you are unable to tell if what they are saying is true.

If someone recommends a stock to me. I don't always dismiss it out of hand. Many times I already know about the stock, but if I don't. I will do an initial investigation on that stock. Many you can dismiss out of hand just by looking at the company details from 10 feet away at say the free site finance.yahoo.com (or whatever website you choose to use)

The only reason I recommend index funds is because they are extremely simplistic and you do not need to know the details of all the stocks inside them. You just need to understand the general purpose of that index fund. There are different index funds and you should understand what each index fund is (it's purpose) and understand it's diversification. ie, Nasdaq is an index of stuff that trades on the Nasdaq, but's it's pretty tech centric. That might diversify your tech holdings for the most part, but it doesn't diversify your portfolio as well as it should be due to being tech heavy. On the other hand, the Dow Index fund is 30 blue chip stocks across many sectors that help diversify your portfolio. The S&P 500 or Standard & Poor's 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies.

For most (including my) IRA and 401k. Funds are all you can use and if you just want to set it and forget it. Go for well balanced index funds rather than sector specific funds. If you want to manage it, diversify your fund holdings to the sectors you think will do well while always keeping a portion for a well diversified index fund as a stable base.

If you just want your own portfolio, (not an IRA / 401k, etc) you can manage it the same way as you would an IRA / 401k. Or you can invest more time and risk into individual stocks. Individual stocks means you either pay a professional to do the head work for you, or you must spend the time to do (including learning to do it) yourself.

Oh and before I forget. Funds charge fees. Before buying a fund, check the fees. Index funds are usually by far the cheapest. Fees can eat away extremely large sums of money over 10-40 years if you don't keep your eye on what you're being charged!


I remember seeing that Warren Buffett made a 1 million dollar bet that his index fund would outperform hedge funds that were controlled by professionals over a 10 year period and he won the bet.

That is really what sold me.. You can just look at the charts and see that it's going to go up over time.

I know this is old news for a lot of you but I just started following the market like a year or 2 ago and i'm a long way from retirement.

BTW, i'll probably choose Vanguard..
 

Ranching

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Everyone hang in there. It’s going to plunge but remember in 2016 it was hovering around 17,000 and last recession in 2008 under 8,000.

Ive lost hundreds of thousands the last couple weeks which of course Id gained in last decade.

It will rebound again in coming years but it appears a recession more probable than likely due to current atmosphere.
We’re all in this together !!
I sold all of my stock a couple of months ago, bought a new truck for the ranch, paid off my Corvette and bought a couple of houses to flip. Kept my low risk annuities.
 
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YosemiteSam

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If the DOW drops to 18K, I think I will jump in then. I don’t think it will get much lower than that.
The first thing I instill in new hires for my IT department is to never assume.

All mistakes start with an assumption. That my friend (your statement) is an assumption.

To support that statement. Companies are now laying off people and the pace of it is going to start increasing. That means the company earning are going to nose dive.

What happens to stock prices when earning nose dive?

Follow the logic in that and then ask yourself if you actually think that is a good idea.

EDIT: I missed the 18k part. Either way, even if it reaches 18k I will reassess the situation before I go diving in.
 

Tabascocat

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The first thing I instill in new hires for my IT department is to never assume.

All mistakes start with an assumption. That my friend (your statement) is an assumption.

To support that statement. Companies are now laying off people and the pace of it is going to start increasing. That means the company earning are going to nose dive.

What happens to stock prices when earning nose dive?

Follow the logic in that and then ask yourself if you actually think that is a good idea.

EDIT: I missed the 18k part. Either way, even if it reaches 18k I will reassess the situation before I go diving in.

I hear ya but it will be for a long-term investment. I will reassess as well at 18K if things get a lot worse.
 

YosemiteSam

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I hear ya but it will be for a long-term investment. I will reassess as well at 18K if things get a lot worse.
At this point, anywhere you go in will end up a great long term investment. I suspect I will stay liquid till we know when the pandemic starts to abate. I suspect the market will still flounder a bit after that and will continue to do so until businesses start reporting a recovery, but the abatement will likely be enough for me to say, it's not going to drop another 2k-8k hah

I get it though. We aren't likely to guess the true bottom. I just want to ensure this pandemic has bottomed out. (ie, when recoveries are clearly outpacing new infections)
 

DanteEXT

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The first thing I instill in new hires for my IT department is to never assume.

All mistakes start with an assumption. That my friend (your statement) is an assumption.

To support that statement. Companies are now laying off people and the pace of it is going to start increasing. That means the company earning are going to nose dive.

What happens to stock prices when earning nose dive?

Follow the logic in that and then ask yourself if you actually think that is a good idea.

EDIT: I missed the 18k part. Either way, even if it reaches 18k I will reassess the situation before I go diving in.

I have made that assumption mistake a few times early in my work in computers. I try not to do that anymore but it does happen still occasionally.
 

CalPolyTechnique

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This is a really rare opportunity to buy in on artificially low share prices. The market is down is due to unforeseen/uncontrollable outside market factors. Not to be glib, but once this pandemic blows over the market presumably will reset back to or near pre-pandemic strength. That may be in 1-2 years or perhaps longer but share prices are so low that even if the market returns to just 65-75% of what it was you can make good money.
 

morasp

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During the banking crisis on multiple occasions people made the mistake of thinking stocks were at a great value only to see them go lower. The technical indicators are flashing red right now. Indicators lag price action and won't get you in at the very bottom but can keep you from losing even more less normal day to day volatility. At a minimum I would wait until the weekly MACD on the S&P 500 index generates a buy signal indicated by the MACD line crossing the signal line and the MACD histogram turning positive. Stockcharts.com offers weekly charts for free if your broker doesn't have the service and the MACD is so widely used it's a default indicator. I usually use the default (12,26,9) settings for the MACD. I would also be ready to go flat (cash) if the MACD generates a sell signal. During the banking crisis there was an extremely rare double rising bottom of the MACD line before the S&P 500 666 bottom was finally in.
 

Diehardblues

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I totally pulled out today. I had been pulling some along the way after initially standing put and why I hadn’t responded lately.

Basically lost the gains from last 3 years. Hopefully live for another day. And ride the wave back up again. Bought in initially very low so after all these years still almost tripled investment.

I just might not live long enough to see it rebound . If I contract this virus myself will struggle to survive with my underlying conditions.

This pandemic doesn’t appear to be flattening as America isn’t heeding the warnings. A total shutdown appears inevitable which will devastate our economy.

The choice or balance between saving the economy versus lives.
 

Rockport

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I totally pulled out today. I had been pulling some along the way after initially standing put and why I hadn’t responded lately.

Basically lost the gains from last 3 years. Hopefully live for another day. And ride the wave back up again. Bought in initially very low so after all these years still almost tripled investment.

I just might not live long enough to see it rebound . If I contract this virus myself will struggle to survive with my underlying conditions.

This pandemic doesn’t appear to be flattening as America isn’t heeding the warnings. A total shutdown appears inevitable which will devastate our economy.

The choice between saving the economy versus lives.
Damn, that was a huge mistake on your part. Huge.
 

Diehardblues

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Damn, that was a huge mistake on your part. Huge.
Considering I initially bought in when the market was about 6,000 I’m not sure I’d view it as such. And I might not be here on the other end. If I am then I can jump back in.

The mistake I made was not trusting my instincts a couple weeks ago.
 

John813

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Taken a 18% hit in my do not touch account.

Debating touching it, or flipping some stocks around now.
Need to double check that I don't have any more ford stock for example.
 

Rockport

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Considering I initially bought in when the market was about 6,000 I’m not sure I’d view it as such. And I might not be here on the other end. If I am then I can jump back in.

The mistake I made was not trusting my instincts a couple weeks ago.
Then you've done ok. If you're an old fart like me, then kudos.
 
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