Stock Market

[nightrain]

Dollar cost averaging provides lower returns over the long term vs Lump sum investing. If you are in it for the long term Lump sum investing has proven to be way better over the long haul.

Not for me brother. Lump sum investing requires some timing of market flux. I have made out big and lost my *** doing that. I like the no thought approach.

 

[rags747]

Let’s get into specific stocks that people are buying. I was looking at F today with a kickazz dividend and BGCP also with a kickazz dividend. Actually looking at these two for my daughter as she has about $40k returning absolutely nothing. She’s 24, does not have her Dads brass ones for risk!

 

[rags747]

Not for me brother. Lump sum investing requires some timing of market flux. I have made out big and lost my *** doing that. I like the no thought approach.

I agree there, the bottom cannot be picked and neither can the top.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Once this COVID-19 is settled in late April mid May I expect we will see the return of the Bull Mkt charging towards 30K info election season. Like you I have been hit with 100’s of K in paper losses, I fully believe we get that back in no time.

The global economy has been in an economic slowdown since early 2019. Normally the US is one of the last to feel it, but it's coming. There will be a point where even low interest rates won't hold it off. The low interest rates is the only reason the bull market lasted this long.

 

[rags747]

The global economy has been in an economic slowdown since early 2019. Normally the US is one of the last to feel it, but it's coming. There will be a point where even low interest rates won't hold it off. The low interest rates is the only reason the bull market lasted this long.

Fed is probably going to cut again this upcoming week. Great time if you are in need of a mortgage!

 

[nightrain]

I agree there, the bottom cannot be picked and neither can the top.

Not to say there aren't people who do it and succeed. I just don't have the access or the bank to make it work.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Fed is probably going to cut again this upcoming week. Great time if you are in need of a mortgage!

I'm already in the middle of trimming $300/month of my mortgage now! The home appraiser arrives tomorrow at 1:30!

 

[rags747]

Not to say there aren't people who do it and succeed. I just don't have the access or the bank to make it work.

Well I’m not convinced that anyone can consistently call the bottom or top, maybe once In awhile but never on a regular basis imo.

 

[rags747]

I'm already in the middle of trimming $300/month of my mortgage now! The home appraiser arrives tomorrow at 1:30!

Good luck! Should add, what is the current rates that you are looking at?

 

[YosemiteSam]

Good luck! Should add, what is the current rates that you are looking at?

I bought my house just shy of two years ago.

I'm dropping my rate from 3.78% to 3.5%. The rest of the savings is actually dropping PMI. (had to refinance to do that) When I initially put money down on the house, I liquidated my single largest asset. Withholding for taxes, it didn't quite cover 20%. I decided not to liquidate any another asset so that I could put the full 20% down. So the last two years, I've been paying extra on the monthly mortgage to make up the remainder of the 20%. Now with the refinance, I drop the rate just over a quarter of a point AND completely drop the PMI from my payment.

Now I'm trying to decide if I should just keep paying the same amount (shortening my loan / interest), or inject those savings into my portfolio. Though I liquidated my entire portfolio a little while back and went into t bills. Watching the market rise for the last several months was a bit hard to watch, but after the last two weeks. I don't feel so bad anymore. I suspected the end of the bull was coming, but nobody could have predicted the last two weeks between COVID-19 and the Russian / Saudi price war. That's like a perfect storm.

I had a hunch, it was just several months too early. hah Can't win them all I guess. Either that, or delayed luck. Either way, I'm good with how it turned out as I would likely have lost all that I gained in that time over the last two weeks. The question is, the future. I suspect turmoil going forward. The administration doing everything to save the market before the election, but the economic slowdown, oil war, and the after effects of COVID-19 is going to make that very difficult. (layoffs have already begun in some industries due to COVID-19, including my own) I think it's going to be a rough end of the year even with no-existent interest rates trying to prop up the markets.

 

[Floatyworm]

Don't worry about him. I have a feeling he is just extremely butt-hurt right now (understandably) because he is nearing retirement and his retirement fund just took it in the backside.

I tossed him on my ignore list and I'm done with him. It's trying time right now for our county. We don't need to listen to a hateful Debby Downer.

Good advice....

 

[rags747]

I bought my house just shy of two years ago.

I'm dropping my rate from 3.78% to 3.5%. The rest of the savings is actually dropping PMI. (had to refinance to do that) When I initially put money down on the house, I liquidated my single largest asset. Withholding for taxes, it didn't quite cover 20%. I decided not to liquidate any another asset so that I could put the full 20% down. So the last two years, I've been paying extra on the monthly mortgage to make up the remainder of the 20%. Now with the refinance, I drop the rate just over a quarter of a point AND completely drop the PMI from my payment.

Now I'm trying to decide if I should just keep paying the same amount (shortening my loan / interest), or inject those savings into my portfolio. Though I liquidated my entire portfolio a little while back and went into t bills. Watching the market rise for the last several months was a bit hard to watch, but after the last two weeks. I don't feel so bad anymore. I suspected the end of the bull was coming, but nobody could have predicted the last two weeks between COVID-19 and the Russian / Saudi price war. That's like a perfect storm.

I had a hunch, it was just several months too early. hah Can't win them all I guess. Either that, or delayed luck. Either way, I'm good with how it turned out as I would likely have lost all that I gained in that time over the last two weeks. The question is, the future. I suspect turmoil going forward. The administration doing everything to save the market before the election, but the economic slowdown, oil war, and the after effects of COVID-19 is going to make that very difficult. (layoffs have already begun in some industries due to COVID-19, including my own) I think it's going to be a rough end of the year even with no-existent interest rates trying to prop up the markets.

Well this certainly benefits you, good job. Don’t feel so bad about being early, next to impossible to pick the lowest low or the highest high. I hope your prediction going forward is way off. I’m thinking just the opposite will happen once COVID-19 lessens. Too much $ being pumped into the system, but we shall see. I tend to have a much better disposition in a Bull Mkt, funny how that works!

 

[Robbieac]

Buying now is like catching a falling knife.

Wait till the knife is on the ground to pick it up.

Yosemite. How will we know when it is truly on the ground though? When would you recommend buying again?

 

[MichaelWinicki]

“Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy”

-Warren Buffet

 

[YosemiteSam]

Yosemite. How will we know when it is truly on the ground though? When would you recommend buying again?

I won't recommend a time to buy. What I will recommend is watch for the recent extremely volatility to drop. Right now, the current future is murky at best. The Saudi / Russian oil war and COVID-19 will impact company earnings. There is an global economic slowdown, the short term value of many assets are going to sink. Though this recent massive drop has brought the price of those assets down ahead of that. So that is good.

The main question is, with what is happening. What is the actual value of those assets? What affect will it have?

Finally, if you are a value investor (buy and hold long term) and a company has good fundamentals and value now. Now might be an good time to invest. The only thing I would recommend is let the dust settle a bit before committing. I mean, you don't want to buy today and the market drop 15% more next week. Right now, we don't know, but I'm EXTREMELY happy that the white house came together (bipartisan) both parties in congress with a plan. That will do nothing but help the situation.

Just remember. You don't have to get in and the very bottom to make money. You just need to get in when the prices are good. Guessing at the bottom can end up costing you, so let the dust settle and don't leap before you look!

 

[morasp]

Yosemite. How will we know when it is truly on the ground though? When would you recommend buying again?

I always use the MACD on the S&P 500 weekly and monthly charts.

 

[Montanalo]

I always use the MACD on the S&P 500 weekly and monthly charts.

Good approach for the weekly and monthly trading. To risky for me as an inter-day tool.

While I will most likely re-invest during the downturn; for the most part, I plan to fundamentally "ride it out"

 

[morasp]

Good approach for the weekly and monthly trading. To risky for me as an inter-day tool.

While I will most likely re-invest during the downturn; for the most part, I plan to fundamentally "ride it out"

I used to do a lot of short term trading and then the high frequency traders and NY Fed (after the 2008 crash) ruined it. The longer patterns are better anyway.

 

[GMO415]

The market shot up to over 23k. Just stick it out.

 

[YosemiteSam]

My investments are primarily long term. I tend to believe in value investing over other methods in my case. Not to mention the time and overhead required for the shorter term methods. Between my work and commute for that work. My weeks are almost 60 hours. Then home and family time requirements limit me so that the other options are not feasible.

About six years ago, I worked in the financial district. We had an options trading platform. I learned a lot back then about HFT and got really interested in writing an application to exploiting arbitrage for my own personal use. I just never had the time to actually make it more than just sketching out the basis of some of the algorithms. I finally just decided to stick to what worked for me. Investing for the long term.