Success of backs due to line

[gimmesix]

One of the lines of thinking this offseason is that Dallas' offensive line can make virtually any running back successful. So I got to thinking about the validity of that statement and it took me back to 1993.

The reason for that is it was Emmitt Smith's best year behind a line that some use as an excuse to dismiss him in conversations about the greatest backs ever. It was the only year he averaged more than 5 yards per carry (5.3) in his career and he won NFL MVP.

He also held out that preseason for more money, which left Dallas opening the season with Derrick Lassic at running back. Lassic averaged 3.8 yards per carry overall as the starter, but he did open the season with a 4.7 game and averaged 4.3 in this third and final game in that role. (Emmitt didn't start that third game, but averaged 5.6 yards on 8 carries in it.)

So there was a 1.5-yard drop-off per carry compared to Smith in the starting role. In the game where Lassic got his most carries (19), he also had his worst average (2.7). He also had two fumbles in that game and lost one as Dallas lost two of its first three games.

Dallas only lost two more games that season. (Smith did have four games out of 14 where he averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry.)

However, this is only a small sample to look at ... so knowing that DeMarco Murray missed a lot of games his first two seasons (only starting about half of them), I thought I'd also look at his numbers compared to the others who started.

In 2011, Murray started seven games and averaged 5.5 YPC. His per-game average was less than 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. Dallas was 4-3 in games he started that year.

Felix Jones started eight games that season and averaged 4.1 in those games (almost a yard and a half per carry less than Murray as a starter). He averaged less than 4.0 in 5 of 8 games (2.6, 2.8, 3.6, 1.7, 2.7). He did have two 100-yard games as a starter (with 8.2 and 4.9 averages in those games).

Tashard Choice started the other game and averaged 4.0, but only had 2 carries for 8 yards.

Dallas was 4-5 in games started by someone other than Murray.

The next year, Murray averaged 4.1, but less than 4.0 in 6 of 10 starts. Dallas was 5-5 in the games he started, and 3-3 in the games started by Jones.

Jones averaged a full yard less (3.1) in 6 starts and less than 4 yards per carry in 4 of 6 starts (2.9, 1.5, 4.3, 4.4, 3.1, 2.3).

So, not considering any other factors, this shows that there is at least a yard to a 1.5-yard drop-off from a quality back to an average/below-average one behind Dallas' lines. Obviously, the line Dallas had this year was better than the ones it had in 2011 and 2012, but Murray's average was 4.7 behind that line.

If we get a similar drop-off from Murray than the combined backs will averaged around 3.7 per carry at best. Of course, we don't know if who we put out there will be better or worse than Murray, but I do think the evidence shows that you can't put just anyone out there and expect the line to make up that much of a difference.

 

[erod]

It isn't that having a good back isn't part of the equation of a great running attack.

It's that good backs are so easy to find. There are more good running backs in college than any other position.

 

[khiladi]

3 of Dallas' five starting lineman were on Dallas before Emmitt Smith came along. Tuinei, Newton, Stepnoski and the other two, Gogan and Gesek, if I remember correctly, started between the two prior. As Newton use to say, Emmitt made their job easy.

 

[blumayne38]

One of the lines of thinking this offseason is that Dallas' offensive line can make virtually any running back successful. So I got to thinking about the validity of that statement and it took me back to 1993.

The reason for that is it was Emmitt Smith's best year behind a line that some use as an excuse to dismiss him in conversations about the greatest backs ever. It was the only year he averaged more than 5 yards per carry (5.3) in his career and he won NFL MVP.

He also held out that preseason for more money, which left Dallas opening the season with Derrick Lassic at running back. Lassic averaged 3.8 yards per carry overall as the starter, but he did open the season with a 4.7 game and averaged 4.3 in this third and final game in that role. (Emmitt didn't start that third game, but averaged 5.6 yards on 8 carries in it.)

So there was a 1.5-yard drop-off per carry compared to Smith in the starting role. In the game where Lassic got his most carries (19), he also had his worst average (2.7). He also had two fumbles in that game and lost one as Dallas lost two of its first three games.

Dallas only lost two more games that season. (Smith did have four games out of 14 where he averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry.)

However, this is only a small sample to look at ... so knowing that DeMarco Murray missed a lot of games his first two seasons (only starting about half of them), I thought I'd also look at his numbers compared to the others who started.

In 2011, Murray started seven games and averaged 5.5 YPC. His per-game average was less than 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. Dallas was 4-3 in games he started that year.

Felix Jones started eight games that season and averaged 4.1 in those games (almost a yard and a half per carry less than Murray as a starter). He averaged less than 4.0 in 5 of 8 games (2.6, 2.8, 3.6, 1.7, 2.7). He did have two 100-yard games as a starter (with 8.2 and 4.9 averages in those games).

Tashard Choice started the other game and averaged 4.0, but only had 2 carries for 8 yards.

Dallas was 4-5 in games started by someone other than Murray.

The next year, Murray averaged 4.1, but less than 4.0 in 6 of 10 starts. Dallas was 5-5 in the games he started, and 3-3 in the games started by Jones.

Jones averaged a full yard less (3.1) in 6 starts and less than 4 yards per carry in 4 of 6 starts (2.9, 1.5, 4.3, 4.4, 3.1, 2.3).

So, not considering any other factors, this shows that there is at least a yard to a 1.5-yard drop-off from a quality back to an average/below-average one behind Dallas' lines. Obviously, the line Dallas had this year was better than the ones it had in 2011 and 2012, but Murray's average was 4.7 behind that line.

If we get a similar drop-off from Murray than the combined backs will averaged around 3.7 per carry at best. Of course, we don't know if who we put out there will be better or worse than Murray, but I do think the evidence shows that you can't put just anyone out there and expect the line to make up that much of a difference.

Good post and im one of the people that believe we can plugg almost anyone behind this o line that isnt lacking confidence...but another thing i got from the post is that the records are all somewhat the same no matter what back we had for the exception of last year now is it the back or the line that improved us dramatically in one season??

 

[Stash]

One of the lines of thinking this offseason is that Dallas' offensive line can make virtually any running back successful. So I got to thinking about the validity of that statement and it took me back to 1993.

The reason for that is it was Emmitt Smith's best year behind a line that some use as an excuse to dismiss him in conversations about the greatest backs ever. It was the only year he averaged more than 5 yards per carry (5.3) in his career and he won NFL MVP.

He also held out that preseason for more money, which left Dallas opening the season with Derrick Lassic at running back. Lassic averaged 3.8 yards per carry overall as the starter, but he did open the season with a 4.7 game and averaged 4.3 in this third and final game in that role. (Emmitt didn't start that third game, but averaged 5.6 yards on 8 carries in it.)

So there was a 1.5-yard drop-off per carry compared to Smith in the starting role. In the game where Lassic got his most carries (19), he also had his worst average (2.7). He also had two fumbles in that game and lost one as Dallas lost two of its first three games.

Dallas only lost two more games that season. (Smith did have four games out of 14 where he averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry.)

However, this is only a small sample to look at ... so knowing that DeMarco Murray missed a lot of games his first two seasons (only starting about half of them), I thought I'd also look at his numbers compared to the others who started.

In 2011, Murray started seven games and averaged 5.5 YPC. His per-game average was less than 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. Dallas was 4-3 in games he started that year.

Felix Jones started eight games that season and averaged 4.1 in those games (almost a yard and a half per carry less than Murray as a starter). He averaged less than 4.0 in 5 of 8 games (2.6, 2.8, 3.6, 1.7, 2.7). He did have two 100-yard games as a starter (with 8.2 and 4.9 averages in those games).

Tashard Choice started the other game and averaged 4.0, but only had 2 carries for 8 yards.

Dallas was 4-5 in games started by someone other than Murray.

The next year, Murray averaged 4.1, but less than 4.0 in 6 of 10 starts. Dallas was 5-5 in the games he started, and 3-3 in the games started by Jones.

Jones averaged a full yard less (3.1) in 6 starts and less than 4 yards per carry in 4 of 6 starts (2.9, 1.5, 4.3, 4.4, 3.1, 2.3).

So, not considering any other factors, this shows that there is at least a yard to a 1.5-yard drop-off from a quality back to an average/below-average one behind Dallas' lines. Obviously, the line Dallas had this year was better than the ones it had in 2011 and 2012, but Murray's average was 4.7 behind that line.

If we get a similar drop-off from Murray than the combined backs will averaged around 3.7 per carry at best. Of course, we don't know if who we put out there will be better or worse than Murray, but I do think the evidence shows that you can't put just anyone out there and expect the line to make up that much of a difference.

Good stuff. Thanks for taking the time to do the research.

Maybe this will open up some eyes?

 

[khiladi]

Pro Football Reference has Felix Jones in 2011 at 4.5 YPC, in his fourth year. And Jones started one more game and had approximately 40 carries less.

But Felix also had 10 more REC, meaning most likely Felix was targeted more in the passing attack. Felix had some really good games where Garrett just abandoned the running game. Against the Commanders for example, he had 14 carries and rushed for 115 yards, which was around 8 YPC. Against the Giants, around the time he came back to start I believe, he rushed 16 times for 106 YPC, more than 5 YPC.Demarco in his starts carried for at least 20 times multiple games. Felix only carried for at least 20 (22) once against Tampa and he rushed for 108 yards.

And that Rams game really explains the huge difference, when Demarco just went buck wild with 253 yards. So given the same amount of carries, he was pretty much rushing like Murray. The one game that really obscures the numbers, like I said, was the Rams.

The problem during that era was Garrett's inability to blend a passing game and running game.

 

[CowboyRoy]

One of the lines of thinking this offseason is that Dallas' offensive line can make virtually any running back successful. So I got to thinking about the validity of that statement and it took me back to 1993.

The reason for that is it was Emmitt Smith's best year behind a line that some use as an excuse to dismiss him in conversations about the greatest backs ever. It was the only year he averaged more than 5 yards per carry (5.3) in his career and he won NFL MVP.

He also held out that preseason for more money, which left Dallas opening the season with Derrick Lassic at running back. Lassic averaged 3.8 yards per carry overall as the starter, but he did open the season with a 4.7 game and averaged 4.3 in this third and final game in that role. (Emmitt didn't start that third game, but averaged 5.6 yards on 8 carries in it.)

So there was a 1.5-yard drop-off per carry compared to Smith in the starting role. In the game where Lassic got his most carries (19), he also had his worst average (2.7). He also had two fumbles in that game and lost one as Dallas lost two of its first three games.

Dallas only lost two more games that season. (Smith did have four games out of 14 where he averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry.)

However, this is only a small sample to look at ... so knowing that DeMarco Murray missed a lot of games his first two seasons (only starting about half of them), I thought I'd also look at his numbers compared to the others who started.

In 2011, Murray started seven games and averaged 5.5 YPC. His per-game average was less than 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. Dallas was 4-3 in games he started that year.

Felix Jones started eight games that season and averaged 4.1 in those games (almost a yard and a half per carry less than Murray as a starter). He averaged less than 4.0 in 5 of 8 games (2.6, 2.8, 3.6, 1.7, 2.7). He did have two 100-yard games as a starter (with 8.2 and 4.9 averages in those games).

Tashard Choice started the other game and averaged 4.0, but only had 2 carries for 8 yards.

Dallas was 4-5 in games started by someone other than Murray.

The next year, Murray averaged 4.1, but less than 4.0 in 6 of 10 starts. Dallas was 5-5 in the games he started, and 3-3 in the games started by Jones.

Jones averaged a full yard less (3.1) in 6 starts and less than 4 yards per carry in 4 of 6 starts (2.9, 1.5, 4.3, 4.4, 3.1, 2.3).

So, not considering any other factors, this shows that there is at least a yard to a 1.5-yard drop-off from a quality back to an average/below-average one behind Dallas' lines. Obviously, the line Dallas had this year was better than the ones it had in 2011 and 2012, but Murray's average was 4.7 behind that line.

If we get a similar drop-off from Murray than the combined backs will averaged around 3.7 per carry at best. Of course, we don't know if who we put out there will be better or worse than Murray, but I do think the evidence shows that you can't put just anyone out there and expect the line to make up that much of a difference.

Nice research, however at the end of the day what are you really saying? That a bad back wont average as much as a great back?

Derrick Lassic vs Emmitt Smith?

I think the point that people make about the line has much to do with the type of back that Murray is. Murray is a good back, he is not a GREAT back. We have seen Murray for 4 years and the 3 years prior he didn't do diddly. Now some of that has to do with Garrett abandoning the run and being pass happy, but he got injured nearly every year.

So when people say that you can put any good back behind the line and he will do well is a reference to Murray. Murray is a good back so put another good back behind our stud line and he will do very well. I completely agree with that theory. Murray left A LOT of yards on the field. For the stat buffs.....how many TD runs did Murray have of 20 yards or more? For the amount of carries he got and the amount of yards, his TD numbers were lacking. He was not a home run threat and often ran into defenders instead of running away from them. Now I love the smash mouth backs because at the end of the day, picking up the 3rd and two's and getting it in at the 2 yard line, in my opinion, are what the good backs can do for you. But with this monster line, we will be better served with a back with more break away speed. Plenty of them in the draft this year. Heck with 400 carries Randle could go for 1500 yards.

 

[btcutter]

It isn't that having a good back isn't part of the equation of a great running attack.

It's that good backs are so easy to find. There are more good running backs in college than any other position.

I disagree with that statement. They maybe easier to find than QB, DE but we seen what happened in the past when we keep drafting Emmitt's backup even with 2nd and 3rd round picks who did nothing. This club also had similar thought about OL for the longest time and kept only using 3-5 rounders and an occasional 2nd rounder to plug the OL. Didn't fare well for us until recent change in philosophy (or luck).

If a RB that's rated high by our scouts drops to us we shouldn't pass just because we think we can pick another RB later....take the best player and keep piling on the talent. Great RB+ great OL > decent RB and great OL every Sunday.

 

[gimmesix]

It isn't that having a good back isn't part of the equation of a great running attack.

It's that good backs are so easy to find. There are more good running backs in college than any other position.

Other posts I've made show that the success rate of finding one in the draft isn't really high. We're talking around 60 percent in the first round and 40 in the second, with a step drop-off in the third. So while there might be more good running backs in college than any other position, their success rates drops off drastically in the pros for whatever reasons.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I disagree with that statement. They maybe easier to find than QB, DE but we seen what happened in the past when we keep drafting Emmitt's backup even with 2nd and 3rd round picks who did nothing. This club also had similar thought about OL for the longest time and kept only using 3-5 rounders and an occasional 2nd rounder to plug the OL. Didn't fare well for us until recent change in philosophy (or luck).

If a RB that's rated high by our scouts drops to us we shouldn't pass just because we think we can pick another RB later....take the best player and keep piling on the talent. Great RB+ great OL > decent RB and great OL every Sunday.

I believe that great backs are hard to find, but it is my opinion that good backs are not. Murray rushed for 1800 yards and where did that get us? Not where we want to go. This team needs a stout defense or it can rush for 1800 yards every year and not get any further. The great QB's will tear them up like they usually. If Gordon is around when we pick 27th, then I would take him. But it makes little sense beyond that. There are a lot of good backs in this draft. With the depth it makes complete sense to utulize that depth to your advantage and take the value pick in round 2 or 3. The great line gives us that luxury. See Murray in the 3rd round.

 

[gimmesix]

Good post and im one of the people that believe we can plugg almost anyone behind this o line that isnt lacking confidence...but another thing i got from the post is that the records are all somewhat the same no matter what back we had for the exception of last year now is it the back or the line that improved us dramatically in one season??

Well, just like there are a variety of factors that could probably be included for each back's success or failure, there are probably more factors that go into team success.

I know during 2011 and 2012, we were pass-heavy, so I don't really know how much of factor the running game really played.

I think what improved us dramatically in one season is how much we ran the ball, which was a product of commitment and the success of the running game. I have to believe the plan this year is to have a similar commitment, but if we don't put a back out there who can have similar success, we'll get away from that plan and lean on our passing-game strength.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Other posts I've made show that the success rate of finding one in the draft isn't really high. We're talking around 60 percent in the first round and 40 in the second, with a step drop-off in the third. So while there might be more good running backs in college than any other position, their success rates drops off drastically in the pros for whatever reasons.

That's because a good back need a good line to have good success. He also needs an OC that will commit to the run and not abandon it. Murray is the text book case of what a good back can do behind a great line and a OC that commits to running the football. No one was talking about Murray being a great back before last year. He is a good back that had a GREAT year. Plenty of good backs in this draft in rounds 2 and 3.

 

[Galian Beast]

It is nearly impossible to differentiate between the quality of an offensive line and the skill of the running back, but you can generally tell when individual players are doing a good job on the line, and when you don't really have holes on that offensive line.

One parallel I would pose is quarterback play. When Bledsoe played behind the 2006 offensive line, he did poorly and the offense struggled to produce. Romo who was more agile and could extend plays, turned that offense around. The offensive line remained the same, yet the production went up.

Scheme also plays a large part, as do complementary players.

Does a running back play on an offense where there is constantly 8 or more in the box like AP does? Or are there weapons on offense that demand playing the run and pass evenly?

Is it a zone scheme or a power scheme? Not all running backs have the same qualities so it isn't as simple as plug and play.

I feel strongly that Murray isn't going to do well in Philly for example. I think that spread offense quick tempo is going to clash with his style of running. He isn't a speedy running back like McCoy and he is more of a grinder. I think the injury concerns with Murray are going to be front and center in Philly. Especially if he tries to stay in like he would normally here.

I think our scheme and player complement gives almost any quality running back the ability to succeed here as long as they have the vision. If they have speed and vision like Gordon, I think they could be deadly.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Well, just like there are a variety of factors that could probably be included for each back's success or failure, there are probably more factors that go into team success.

I know during 2011 and 2012, we were pass-heavy, so I don't really know how much of factor the running game really played.

I think what improved us dramatically in one season is how much we ran the ball, which was a product of commitment and the success of the running game. I have to believe the plan this year is to have a similar commitment, but if we don't put a back out there who can have similar success, we'll get away from that plan and lean on our passing-game strength.

We definitely need a good back to run behind this line. It would be a waste not to have one. I believe they know this and will make the right pick. Personally, I would love to see them get Johnson from U Miami. Would be a great value in the 2nd or 3rd round. Lots of speed and can do it all. Instead of running into tacklers he will fly right by them. Those 15 yarders for Murray will be 70 yard TD's with a back like that.

 

[Alexander]

Heck with 400 carries Randle could go for 1500 yards.

LOL

 

[CowboyRoy]

It is nearly impossible to differentiate between the quality of an offensive line and the skill of the running back, but you can generally tell when individual players are doing a good job on the line, and when you don't really have holes on that offensive line.

One parallel I would pose is quarterback play. When Bledsoe played behind the 2006 offensive line, he did poorly and the offense struggled to produce. Romo who was more agile and could extend plays, turned that offense around. The offensive line remained the same, yet the production went up.

Scheme also plays a large part, as do complementary players.

Does a running back play on an offense where there is constantly 8 or more in the box like AP does? Or are there weapons on offense that demand playing the run and pass evenly?

Is it a zone scheme or a power scheme? Not all running backs have the same qualities so it isn't as simple as plug and play.

I feel strongly that Murray isn't going to do well in Philly for example. I think that spread offense quick tempo is going to clash with his style of running. He isn't a speedy running back like McCoy and he is more of a grinder. I think the injury concerns with Murray are going to be front and center in Philly. Especially if he tries to stay in like he would normally here.

I think our scheme and player complement gives almost any quality running back the ability to succeed here as long as they have the vision. If they have speed and vision like Gordon, I think they could be deadly.

I agree. However, from the looks of the moves that Kelly is making in Philly, looks like he is setting up to bring in a power rushing attack. And I think he knows it, that why he went out and got two good back in Murray and Mathews. I guess he figures two injury prone backs equals one healthy back. LOL

Personally, I would take McCoy over Murray all day and every day. McCoy behind the Dallas line would be amazing.

 

[gimmesix]

Pro Football Reference has Felix Jones in 2011 at 4.5 YPC, in his fourth year. And Jones started one more game and had approximately 40 carries less.

But Felix also had 10 more REC, meaning most likely Felix was targeted more in the passing attack. Felix had some really good games where Garrett just abandoned the running game. Against the Commanders for example, he had 14 carries and rushed for 115 yards, which was around 8 YPC. Against the Giants, around the time he came back to start I believe, he rushed 16 times for 106 YPC, more than 5 YPC.Demarco in his starts carried for at least 20 times multiple games. Felix only carried for at least 20 (22) once against Tampa and he rushed for 108 yards.

And that Rams game really explains the huge difference, when Demarco just went buck wild with 253 yards. So given the same amount of carries, he was pretty much rushing like Murray. The one game that really obscures the numbers, like I said, was the Rams.

The problem during that era was Garrett's inability to blend a passing game and running game.

His overall average was 4.5 that year. It dropped to 4.1 in games he started. And as I pointed out, he averaged below 4.0 in 5 of his 8 starts. If not for his 8.3-YPC game, his average would have been worse.

Murray only dipped below 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. That's quite a bit of difference.

As far as Garrett abandoning the running game, when your lead back is averaging less than 2 yards a carry or less than 3, it's hard to blame him. You can't stick with a 1.5-yard rushing attack or even a 3.1.

 

[CowboyRoy]

LOL

If he's not stealing underwear at Macy's. LOL

 

[gimmesix]

Nice research, however at the end of the day what are you really saying? That a bad back wont average as much as a great back?

Derrick Lassic vs Emmitt Smith?

I think the point that people make about the line has much to do with the type of back that Murray is. Murray is a good back, he is not a GREAT back. We have seen Murray for 4 years and the 3 years prior he didn't do diddly. Now some of that has to do with Garrett abandoning the run and being pass happy, but he got injured nearly every year.

So when people say that you can put any good back behind the line and he will do well is a reference to Murray. Murray is a good back so put another good back behind our stud line and he will do very well. I completely agree with that theory. Murray left A LOT of yards on the field. For the stat buffs.....how many TD runs did Murray have of 20 yards or more? For the amount of carries he got and the amount of yards, his TD numbers were lacking. He was not a home run threat and often ran into defenders instead of running away from them. Now I love the smash mouth backs because at the end of the day, picking up the 3rd and two's and getting it in at the 2 yard line, in my opinion, are what the good backs can do for you. But with this monster line, we will be better served with a back with more break away speed. Plenty of them in the draft this year. Heck with 400 carries Randle could go for 1500 yards.

Murray averaged 5.5, 4.1, 5.1 and 4.7 yards in his four years here. Find all the backs who can match those numbers carrying at least 150 times a season and your list will be pretty slim.

Murray gets discredited more than he should here, while research shows what he did and replacing what he did isn't near as easy as some believe. It doesn't mean Dallas won't be able to do it, just that it isn't as simple as expecting Randle to be able to step in with little to no drop-off.

 

[CowboyRoy]

His overall average was 4.5 that year. It dropped to 4.1 in games he started. And as I pointed out, he averaged below 4.0 in 5 of his 8 starts. If not for his 8.3-YPC game, his average would have been worse.

Murray only dipped below 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. That's quite a bit of difference.

As far as Garrett abandoning the running game, when your lead back is averaging less than 2 yards a carry or less than 3, it's hard to blame him. You can't stick with a 1.5-yard rushing attack or even a 3.1.

True, but if you recall in 2013 there were several games were Murray was killing it. The Lions game comes to mind when Murray was averaging like 8 YPC in the first half. We were up by 23 and for some reason Garrett came out in the 2nd half and ran him only 7 times the rest of the game. And he was still doing it after Romo threw 2 picks. I even recall one of the Lions players calling out the Cowboys saying "thank you for abandoning the run. The Cowboys are a great running team, but they always go away from it. Thats what they do".

I personally think that Garrett has no business on the offensive side of the ball. Its no coincidence that after 8 years of a pass happy offense the first year that a real OC got to call the offense all on his own, we became a ground and pound monster running team.