Success of backs due to line

[Galian Beast]

But the sheer volume of running backs offsets that. Only one of the top ten rushers in the NFL last year was a first-round pick.

There are backs that COULD be successful, but they don't have the quarterback or offensive line to do so. That's what makes Adrian Peterson so amazing.

They could just stand pat with what's here and have an above average running game. The key is find a back that can actually accentuate the line further.

Peterson and Gurley may be the only two that can actually do that.

I think Gordon could also be one of those running backs.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Granted, if you are talking about, elite, special backs like Peterson, then yah, Gordon may be the only guy like that in this draft.

Sorry, I mean Gurley

 

[xwalker]

One of the lines of thinking this offseason is that Dallas' offensive line can make virtually any running back successful. So I got to thinking about the validity of that statement and it took me back to 1993.

The reason for that is it was Emmitt Smith's best year behind a line that some use as an excuse to dismiss him in conversations about the greatest backs ever. It was the only year he averaged more than 5 yards per carry (5.3) in his career and he won NFL MVP.

He also held out that preseason for more money, which left Dallas opening the season with Derrick Lassic at running back. Lassic averaged 3.8 yards per carry overall as the starter, but he did open the season with a 4.7 game and averaged 4.3 in this third and final game in that role. (Emmitt didn't start that third game, but averaged 5.6 yards on 8 carries in it.)

So there was a 1.5-yard drop-off per carry compared to Smith in the starting role. In the game where Lassic got his most carries (19), he also had his worst average (2.7). He also had two fumbles in that game and lost one as Dallas lost two of its first three games.

Dallas only lost two more games that season. (Smith did have four games out of 14 where he averaged less than 4.2 yards per carry.)

However, this is only a small sample to look at ... so knowing that DeMarco Murray missed a lot of games his first two seasons (only starting about half of them), I thought I'd also look at his numbers compared to the others who started.

In 2011, Murray started seven games and averaged 5.5 YPC. His per-game average was less than 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. Dallas was 4-3 in games he started that year.

Felix Jones started eight games that season and averaged 4.1 in those games (almost a yard and a half per carry less than Murray as a starter). He averaged less than 4.0 in 5 of 8 games (2.6, 2.8, 3.6, 1.7, 2.7). He did have two 100-yard games as a starter (with 8.2 and 4.9 averages in those games).

Tashard Choice started the other game and averaged 4.0, but only had 2 carries for 8 yards.

Dallas was 4-5 in games started by someone other than Murray.

The next year, Murray averaged 4.1, but less than 4.0 in 6 of 10 starts. Dallas was 5-5 in the games he started, and 3-3 in the games started by Jones.

Jones averaged a full yard less (3.1) in 6 starts and less than 4 yards per carry in 4 of 6 starts (2.9, 1.5, 4.3, 4.4, 3.1, 2.3).

So, not considering any other factors, this shows that there is at least a yard to a 1.5-yard drop-off from a quality back to an average/below-average one behind Dallas' lines. Obviously, the line Dallas had this year was better than the ones it had in 2011 and 2012, but Murray's average was 4.7 behind that line.

If we get a similar drop-off from Murray than the combined backs will averaged around 3.7 per carry at best. Of course, we don't know if who we put out there will be better or worse than Murray, but I do think the evidence shows that you can't put just anyone out there and expect the line to make up that much of a difference.

Comparing Lassic's production to Emmitt's is not the same as comparing a RB rated as a 2nd round pick in this draft to one rated as a 3rd or 4th. Lassic had 269 yards for his entire career.

By the time the Cowboys drafted Murray, Felix has gotten fat and fell off a cliff from an ability perspective. I think that was the year he failed the conditioning test in TC.

 

[gimmesix]

Murray's YPA, other than last year, have been wildly inflated by single games against terrible run defenses.

2011 - His entire body of work basically came from a 4 game stretch. STL (10.12), PHI (9.25), SEA (6.32), BUF (6.75).
2013 - Only over 100 yards three times - STL (6.73), CHI (8.11), GB (7.44). He was wildly pedestrian all year.

Generally, I hate arguments that say "well if not for this game his numbers wouldn't be so great" but in Murray's case, you almost have to use it to get a more complete picture.

I look more at per-carry averages in games because I think that shows success more than 100-yard games. I already pointed out that Murray had only 2 starts in 7 games in 2011 with less than a 4.0 average compared to 5 in 8 games for Jones. In 2013, Murray had 4 in 14 starts. Those are numbers you can build a running game on, especially when not many of those YPCs were inflated by big runs (three over 40).

Teams want to run the ball, but when your back picks up 2 yards on first down or is dropped for a loss, you quickly get away from that.

 

[Galian Beast]

I look more at per-carry averages in games because I think that shows success more than 100-yard games. I already pointed out that Murray had only 2 starts in 7 games in 2011 with less than a 4.0 average compared to 5 in 8 games for Jones. In 2013, Murray had 4 in 14 starts. Those are numbers you can build a running game on, especially when not many of those YPCs were inflated by big runs (three over 40).

Teams want to run the ball, but when your back picks up 2 yards on first down or is dropped for a loss, you quickly get away from that.

YPC is too shallow of a stat to properly compare running backs. There are too many variables that play into it over the course of a season or a career.

If we could compare something like 1st and 10, outside of the redzone, with 7 men in the box, YPC might be able to show us something, but outside of that it is too misleading.

If you run 2 yards on 1st and 10 on your own 20 versus running 2 yards and 3rd and goal with 2 yards to the end zone... you're comparing two different kinds of runs, yet they both show up the same on the stat sheet.

 

[gimmesix]

Comparing Lassic's production to Emmitt's is not the same as comparing a RB rated as a 2nd round pick in this draft to one rated as a 3rd or 4th. Lassic had 269 yards for his entire career.

By the time the Cowboys drafted Murray, Felix has gotten fat and fell off a cliff from an ability perspective. I think that was the year he failed the conditioning test in TC.

I'm not sure I understand you. Are you saying there's no way Coleman, Ajayi, etc., can turn out to have a similar career as Lassic's? I think past draft evidence says there's a good possibility that they will turn out to have a similar career as Lassic's.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Derrick Lassic vs Emmitt Smith?

I've always hated that folks bite into that 2-game "Derrick Lassic is starting" segment and try to make it something meaningful... when it really isn't.

#1 It's just too small of sample size.

#2 The Cowboys played the team they just beat in the previous Super Bowl and they played the team that won the Super Bowl the prior season– so it's not like they were playing unmotivated dregs of the earth.

#3 And this one is more of my opinion than anything else, but I doubt the offensive linemen were as "motivated" to block for Lassic as they were Emmitt. Did they "tank?". No, I just don't think they were fully committed to the job at hand.

#4 I don't think anyone believes that Derrick Lassic was anywhere close to be as talented as Emmitt Smith.

 

[gimmesix]

YPC is too shallow of a stat to properly compare running backs. There are too many variables that play into it over the course of a season or a career.

If we could compare something like 1st and 10, outside of the redzone, with 7 men in the box, YPC might be able to show us something, but outside of that it is too misleading.

If you run 2 yards on 1st and 10 on your own 20 versus running 2 yards and 3rd and goal with 2 yards to the end zone... you're comparing two different kinds of runs, yet they both show up the same on the stat sheet.

I haven't found a single stat that can be used to properly compare running backs. I like YPC because I think it is a good measure of the success a running back is having in a game. If you are a starting running back and your averaging 3.1 yards per carry in a game, I think it's pretty clear that you aren't being successful from down to down.

 

[Bullet22]

If you don't have a good line and supporting cast, then it doesn't matter who you put back there....Mcfadden will shine..

 

[Galian Beast]

I haven't found a single stat that can be used to properly compare running backs. I like YPC because I think it is a good measure of the success a running back is having in a game. If you are a starting running back and your averaging 3.1 yards per carry in a game, I think it's pretty clear that you aren't being successful from down to down.

The lack of good statistical measures doesn't make YPC a good indicator.

A running back could be averaging 3.1 ypc in a game because the offensive line is horrible and there are no offensive weapons on the outsides. If a team wants to sell out to stop the run, they usually can do that. The problem is when an offense doesn't have the ability to make a team pay for that.

 

[khiladi]

His overall average was 4.5 that year. It dropped to 4.1 in games he started. And as I pointed out, he averaged below 4.0 in 5 of his 8 starts. If not for his 8.3-YPC game, his average would have been worse.

Murray only dipped below 4.0 in 2 of his 7 games. That's quite a bit of difference.

As far as Garrett abandoning the running game, when your lead back is averaging less than 2 yards a carry or less than 3, it's hard to blame him. You can't stick with a 1.5-yard rushing attack or even a 3.1.

I think your kind of stretching a point to establish that Garrett abandoned a running game because Felix couldn't run.

At SF for example, Felix ran only nine times for 25 yards, while Murray ran 6 times for 21 yards. Choice ran 5 times for 5 yards. All three pretty much sucked. The prior game which was the first game of the season, Murray ran 2 times for 0 yards and Felix ran 17 times for 44 yards. The very next game was the Washington game and Felix had over 100 yards. The very next game against Detroit, Felix was 16 for 59 yards and Choice ran better than Murray, with six carries for 39 yards. Murray on the other hand was 4 for 12. When Felix ran awful, Murray ran awful.

Additionally, I'm not even sure what start means, as opposed to the amount of carries. Like I said, Garrett was often bashed for abandoning the run and it was always his MO. Against GB two years ago, they abandoned the run despite running well for the first half. The reality is, Murray carried the ball a "lot more" in 2011 so he had more time in those starts to get into a groove. This is without even taking into account the defenses he played against.

At the same time, if you look at the last two games of the season, one game Romo was out so Felix ran 23 times, yet they got down early and there was no threat of a passing game. The very next game, which was the last of the season, Felix only ran 11 times for 30 yards and the Giants built a 21 point lead early. That was another problem with Garrett, just going mad pass when he was down. It was also the fact that Garrett's game-planning during those days against the same opponent in the same year was just awful.

My point is simply that Felix was actually not that bad when he was here and Dallas tried establishing the run. Yeah, Murray is a better runner but a lot of the bad games can be attributed to the play-calling, neither Felix nor Murray.

 

[Galian Beast]

If you don't have a good line and supporting cast, then it doesn't matter who you put back there....Mcfadden will shine..

I'm not sure McFadden will "shine", will he do better than he did in Oakland. I think so and I hope so, but the idea that he will shine or play like the player we think he was coming out of college, I think is really speculative, but it will certainly show us what a better offense can do for a running back.

 

[xwalker]

I'm not sure I understand you. Are you saying there's no way Coleman, Ajayi, etc., can turn out to have a similar career as Lassic's? I think past draft evidence says there's a good possibility that they will turn out to have a similar career as Lassic's.

Lassic was the 11th RB in that draft. He was a 4th round pick.

Coleman is is considered a top 5 and possibly top 3 RB in this draft. Ajayi is right there with Coleman is his knee is not a problem.

A better comparison to Lassic would be somebody like Cameron Artis-Payne or Matt Jones.

 

[khiladi]

From 1996 - 2004, the Broncos had a dominant rushing game every year. That included rushing leaders:

Mike Anderson - 2000 - 297/1487/5.0
Reuben Droughns - 2004 - 275/1240/4.5
Olandis Gary - 199 - 276/1159/4.2

If ever there was proof that OL trumps RB, that's it.

You could add Alfred Morris to that with the Commanders, running the same scheme because of the same coach, Shanahan.

 

[CowboyGil]

If you don't have a good line and supporting cast, then it doesn't matter who you put back there....Mcfadden will shine..

I hope so. He seems to be excited at the thought of playing behind our line and thinks it will bring out his best yet. Let's just hope the body is as willing as the mind.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Lassic was the 11th RB in that draft. He was a 4th round pick.

Coleman is is considered a top 5 and possibly top 3 RB in this draft. Ajayi is right there with Coleman is his knee is not a problem.

A better comparison to Lassic would be somebody like Cameron Artis-Payne or Matt Jones.

I love Coleman. I would be very pumped if we got him in the 2nd round.

 

[fishspill]

For those interested someone today posted a breakdown of how he sees McFadden fitting in with the line on the NFL subreddit or Reddit. It's pretty darn impressive the work this poster put in and well worth a look. I'd link but that site has other areas with objectionable content, but you can find it if you want.

 

[Doomsday101]

I would not be shocked at all if McFadden getting this chance in his career to play very well in Dallas. Not putting all my eggs on him and feel Dallas will take RB within the 1st 2 rds of this draft.

 

[erod]

I think Gordon could also be one of those running backs.

Gordon scares me. I'd stay away.

I can't get that Ohio State game out of my head. He might just be Ryan Williams.

 

[gimmesix]

I've always hated that folks bite into that 2-game "Derrick Lassic is starting" segment and try to make it something meaningful... when it really isn't.

#1 It's just too small of sample size.

#2 The Cowboys played the team they just beat in the previous Super Bowl and they played the team that won the Super Bowl the prior season– so it's not like they were playing unmotivated dregs of the earth.

#3 And this one is more of my opinion than anything else, but I doubt the offensive linemen were as "motivated" to block for Lassic as they were Emmitt. Did they "tank?". No, I just don't think they were fully committed to the job at hand.

#4 I don't think anyone believes that Derrick Lassic was anywhere close to be as talented as Emmitt Smith.

I wrote that the sample size is small in my OP. That's why I also included the years Felix and DeMarco both started for comparative purposes.

I also agree that Lassic isn't anywhere close to as talented as Emmitt Smith, but I'm not sure McFadden (at this point), Williams, Randle and Dunbar are close to as talented as Murray. I'm not sure that a back we draft will be close to as talented as Murray. It seems to be a given here that they will be because of our offensive line, while I don't believe that anything is a given ... if it was, a whole lot of teams wouldn't have missed on running backs in the draft over all these years.

I do think McFadden has shown the ability to be the lead dog in the past, but he's three years removed from it.