Talk About a Dichotomy

[bbgun]

All I know is, the acquisition of a dynamic playmaker pushed us over the top in '77 and '92. Might Pacman complete the trifecta? Or Zach Thomas?

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Off topic first. Your post count as of this response is 11,111. Don't know why that struck me.

One is the loneliest number

 

[Hostile]

All I know is, the acquisition of a dynamic playmaker pushed us over the top in '77 and '92. Might Pacman complete the trifecta? Or Zach Thomas?

77...Dorsett.

92...Haley? (Inquiring minds want to know.)

08...a certain WR who shall remain nameless by me? :

 

[bbgun]

77...Dorsett.

92...Haley? (Inquiring minds want to know.)

08...a certain WR who shall remain nameless by me?

Yep. A nod to Deion in '95, too.

 

[VACowboy]

All I know is, the acquisition of a dynamic playmaker pushed us over the top in '77 and '92. Might Pacman complete the trifecta? Or Zach Thomas?

That's what happened to the offense. Tony Romo made the Dallas O special.

 

[lkelly]

Here's the suggestion - set your expectations based on what the players have done as pros, not their draft position. You could easily create a roster consisting of all first round picks like Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson, Rashaun Woods, etc. and any reasonable NFL fan is going to tell you that it will suck. You could do the same with all second day picks that were gems and you'd be right to have high expectations. To make up a list and base the expectations on draft position (which is what was done here) doesn't make a lot of sense in my opinion. I can't imagine any NFL GM would do it when trying to make up a roster. You have to look at the players, their talent level, their compatibility with the scheme, and their durability to set real expectations. And that's throwing out the whole salary cap thing.

If you are trying rate how well players lived up to their draft position, that's a different argument. Some do, and some don't. Happens every year.

 

[Hostile]

Here's the suggestion - set your expectations based on what the players have done as pros, not their draft position. You could easily create a roster consisting of all first round picks like Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson, Rashaun Woods, etc. and any reasonable NFL fan is going to tell you that it will suck. You could do the same with all second day picks that were gems and you'd be right to have high expectations. To make up a list and base the expectations on draft position (which is what was done here) doesn't make a lot of sense in my opinion. I can't imagine any NFL GM would do it when trying to make up a roster. You have to look at the players, their talent level, their compatibility with the scheme, and their durability to set real expectations. And that's throwing out the whole salary cap thing.

If you are trying rate how well players lived up to their draft position, that's a different argument. Some do, and some don't. Happens every year.

I could also put together a roster of 1st rounders that would be freaking amazing. I love the idea that none of you are disappointed in the production of our Defense and never considered how concentrated it is with high Draft picks. I'm not sure whether to applaud that for its foresight or laugh at it for it's nonsense.

Remind me of this before next year's draft when you have players you want but who you have no expectations at all about.

 

[THUMPER]

wow, 9th round. Johnson is old....

I think he was Sid Luckman's backup.

 

[THUMPER]

I could also put together a roster of 1st rounders that would be freaking amazing. I love the idea that none of you are disappointed in the production of our Defense and never considered how concentrated it is with high Draft picks. I'm not sure whether to applaud that for its foresight or laugh at it for it's nonsense.

Remind me of this before next year's draft when you have players you want but who you have no expectations at all about.

1st round picks ARE expected to produce at a high level. Teams make a major investment in them and consider a 1st round pick to have great value. Therefore, the expectations are higher for them than for players taken later (or not at all!). Some fans may deny that they have higher expectations of them but the teams are under no such delusion.

The number of 1st round picks on our defense does make it disappointing that they haven't performed better than they have the last few years. Some of that is due to talent evaluation, some to scouting, some to coaching, some to opportunity, and some to bad luck.

The point is, teams hold 1st round picks to be of great value and expect players taken there to perform at a high level. When they don't it is disappointing.

 

[Hostile]

1st round picks ARE expected to produce at a high level. Teams make a major investment in them and consider a 1st round pick to have great value. Therefore, the expectations are higher for them than for players taken later (or not at all!). Some fans may deny that they have higher expectations of them but the teams are under no such delusion.

The number of 1st round picks on our defense does make it disappointing that they haven't performed better than they have the last few years. Some of that is due to talent evaluation, some to scouting, some to coaching, some to opportunity, and some to bad luck.

The point is, teams hold 1st round picks to be of great value and expect players taken there to perform at a high level. When they don't it is disappointing.

I always thought so, but apparently this isn't the case in the contemporary world. It is entirely archaic.

:wink2:

 

[LeonDixson]

1st round picks ARE expected to produce at a high level. Teams make a major investment in them and consider a 1st round pick to have great value. Therefore, the expectations are higher for them than for players taken later (or not at all!). Some fans may deny that they have higher expectations of them but the teams are under no such delusion.

The number of 1st round picks on our defense does make it disappointing that they haven't performed better than they have the last few years. Some of that is due to talent evaluation, some to scouting, some to coaching, some to opportunity, and some to bad luck.

The point is, teams hold 1st round picks to be of great value and expect players taken there to perform at a high level. When they don't it is disappointing.

I always thought so, but apparently this isn't the case in the contemporary world. It is entirely archaic.

:wink2:

A great example of this is Bobby Carpenter. If he had been a 7th round pick people would have been talking about how much potential he has and isn't it wonderful we have a somewhat solid back up for such a bargain price. But because he was a 1st round pick the EXPECTATIONS were so much higher that many now consider him to be a bust and would trade him in a heartbeat.

 

[lkelly]

I think the point I'm making is that I develop my expectations of players after I've seen them as pros. I stop basing my expectations of high school recruits on their Rivals ranking after I've seen them play in college. The new car smell wears off pretty quickly for me and I try to dump the old data which isn't very relevant. I can't imagine saying I expect that Joey Harrington is going to be a good QB just because he has a (1) next to his name on some list. Evaluate him as a pro and determine that he can't start. I can look at Tony Romo who has (UDF) and say that he should start because of his work as a pro.

This has nothing to do with fans' disappointment over whether or not a draft pick was worth his ranking. I may think a guy is going to be a good pro and want my team to draft them, but once they are in the NFL it all starts over. You said that the defense should be good because it has a lot of top picks. I say the defense should be good because it has several good and great pro players. GMs don't give big second contracts to players because of their draft position. They pay big money because they are good pro players. That's what you should be basing your expectations on.

Color me crazy.

 

[lkelly]

A great example of this is Bobby Carpenter. If he had been a 7th round pick people would have been talking about how much potential he has and isn't it wonderful we have a somewhat solid back up for such a bargain price. But because he was a 1st round pick the EXPECTATIONS were so much higher that many now consider him to be a bust and would trade him in a heartbeat.

How long do you cling to the expectation that he's going to be a great player? Until he retires? After a few years as a pro, you can set realistic expectations. This is the same logic one should apply when grading a draft.

 

[THUMPER]

A great example of this is Bobby Carpenter. If he had been a 7th round pick people would have been talking about how much potential he has and isn't it wonderful we have a somewhat solid back up for such a bargain price. But because he was a 1st round pick the EXPECTATIONS were so much higher that many now consider him to be a bust and would trade him in a heartbeat.

Players taken in the 1st round are usually expected to be starters by their 2nd year, or 3rd at the latest. If they are not then they are considered to be busts. This will be Carpenter's 3rd year and he isn't likely to be the starter this season.

But you are right, had he been taken in the 2nd round, like Burnett, no one would be calling him a bust. Burnett is entering his 4th season and isn't likely to start either but no one considers him a bust because he wasn't a first round pick even though he was taken only 24 picks later than Carpenter was.

The investment made by the team is what really determines the expectations, especially in this age of the salary cap. Without looking it up I would venture to say with confidence that Carpenter's contract was significantly more than Burnett's, thus the difference in expectations.

 

[LeonDixson]

How long do you cling to the expectation that he's going to be a great player? Until he retires? After a few years as a pro, you can set realistic expectations. This is the same logic one should apply when grading a draft.

The original post suggested that, without any other information, which unit would you have expected to perform better. If your answer would be "I can't make a judgement because I haven't seen them play in the pros", that's fine. But most people would say the unit loaded with higher picks, absent any other information, should perform better.

Kobe Bryant and Lebron James weren't drafted in the NBA right out of high school because their teams couldn't wait to see if they really could play at a high level in the pros. It was because they expected them to play at a high level in the pros.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Like lkelly said very well... Would you "expect" a team of 1st round busts to be better than a team of All-Pro players taken in the third round?

Sure, right now we expect Mike Jenkins to be better than Orlando Scandrick. But if in a few years we see that Scandrick is better, we wouldn't keep expecting Jenkins to be better... Right?

 

[pgreptom]

What do Dichotomy mean?

LOL.

Good stuff.

 

[superpunk]

I think everyone is in the same place, but taking different directions to get there in this discussion.

Obviously, we expect more out of a defense full of first rounders. But I think we've seen enough of Marcus Spears, Greg Ellis, Roy Williams and Bobby Carpenter to no longer expect more of them than we do of Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber and Jason Witten.

Things change over time. Eventually first round players are just...players.

 

[Hostile]

I think the point I'm making is that I develop my expectations of players after I've seen them as pros. I stop basing my expectations of high school recruits on their Rivals ranking after I've seen them play in college. The new car smell wears off pretty quickly for me and I try to dump the old data which isn't very relevant. I can't imagine saying I expect that Joey Harrington is going to be a good QB just because he has a (1) next to his name on some list. Evaluate him as a pro and determine that he can't start. I can look at Tony Romo who has (UDF) and say that he should start because of his work as a pro.

This has nothing to do with fans' disappointment over whether or not a draft pick was worth his ranking. I may think a guy is going to be a good pro and want my team to draft them, but once they are in the NFL it all starts over. You said that the defense should be good because it has a lot of top picks. I say the defense should be good because it has several good and great pro players. GMs don't give big second contracts to players because of their draft position. They pay big money because they are good pro players. That's what you should be basing your expectations on.

Color me crazy.

And I'm saying I don't buy that for one second. I don't for one minute believe that you think all 255 Draft picks and 100 udfa players are on 100% equal ground and have the same potential and expectations.

 

[Hostile]

Like lkelly said very well... Would you "expect" a team of 1st round busts to be better than a team of All-Pro players taken in the third round?

Sure, right now we expect Mike Jenkins to be better than Orlando Scandrick. But if in a few years we see that Scandrick is better, we wouldn't keep expecting Jenkins to be better... Right?

How about you assemble a team of 3rd rounders in the current NFL. Anybody you want as long as they were 3rd rounders at the time of their Draft. I'll assemble a team of 1st rounders. Which one do you figure will garner more votes about higher expectations?