Tanking Doesn't Work!

[garyo1954]

The idea of going "worst to first" has ingrained itself. A team might go "worst to first" in their division but that doesn't equate to having the #1 pick.

Have a look at the last 21 years of Teams with the number 1 pick and where they ended up the following year. Most teams showed some improvement (there were no Texans in 2001 so there is nothing to improve on). Two teams the Rams and the Browns took a step back. All in all the average improvement for a team with the #1 pick is just 3.9 games. And 12 of the teams that picked #1 finished 4th in their Division the following year, two others finished 3rd. Only 4 teams in the past 21 years made the play-offs, and were out after the Wild Card game.

Year Draft Pos Team School Prior Next Change Finished
2000 Courtney Brown DE Cleveland Browns Penn St 2-14 3-13 1 6
2001 Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Va.Tech 4-12 7-9 3 4
2002 David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St 0-0 4-12 0 4
2003 Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2-14 8-8 6 2
2004 Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers NC St. 4-12 12-4 8 lost WC*
2005 Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2-14 4-12 2 4
2006 Mario Williams DE Houston Texans NC St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2-14 4-12 2 4
2008 Jake Long T Miami Dolphins Michigan 1-15 11-5 10 lost WC
2009 Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 0-16 2-14 2 4
2010 Sam Bradford QB St. Lois Rams Oklahoma 1-15 7-9 6 2
2011 Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2 -14 6-10 4 3
2012 Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2013 Eric Fisher T KC Chiefs Central Michigan 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2014 Jadevon Clowney DE Houston Texans South Carolina 2-14 9-7 7 2
2015 Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Bucs Florida St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2016 Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 7-9 4-12 -3 3
2017 Myles Garrett DE Cleveland Browns Texas A&M 0-16 7-8-1 7 4
2018 Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 7-8-1 6-10 -1 4
2019 Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals. Oklahoma 3-13 5-10-1 2 4
2020 Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2-14 2-5-1 0 4

Of the 15 QBs taken #1 overall only 2, Luck and Rivers) made it to the play-offs their first year.
The Other two play-off teams took T (Fisher and Long).

Still think Tanking is for you?

* A note about Rivers. The Chargers drafted Eli Manning but swapped picks with the Giants.
​

 

[Carson]

We aren’t picking 1st. We’re picking 3-4.

Remember 2015? Banged up squad, lost starting QB. Ended up 4-12. Solid draft picking 4th and ended up 13-3 the next year and one play from the NFC Championship.

 

[Proof]

“Tanking” typically improves your draft stock. It rarely leads to the first pick, and also doesn’t necessarily mean you should win the SB the following year.

but in a situation like ours, with an injury to the qb and a lost year, a talented and flawed roster can go from 4-12 to 13-3

 

[Ranching]

We aren’t picking 1st. We’re picking 3-4.

Remember 2015? Banged up squad, lost starting QB. Ended up 4-12. Solid draft picking 4th and ended up 13-3 the next year and one play from the NFC Championship.

So you're ok with losing on purpose?

 

[ItzKelz]

Get better every week with the players you have.

 

[Carson]

So you're ok with losing on purpose?

We aren’t losing on purpose.

But if you look at our schedule, we should win a few more games. The Giants and WFT are next up in line. So we should end up in the 3-5 range winning about 4 games.

 

[blueblood70]

We aren’t picking 1st. We’re picking 3-4.

Remember 2015? Banged up squad, lost starting QB. Ended up 4-12. Solid draft picking 4th and ended up 13-3 the next year and one play from the NFC Championship.

we didnt tank we just were bad..theres difference..the term tank infers purposefully design a losing team..

not sure why its in every other new thread now because the DC arent tanking but in the fans mind they are..they simply are bad..
if the team was tanking they would have left nooch in for the rest of the season and pulled Martin out..they wouldn't have made changes on defense and bringing back dalton etc

we will organically lose 12 games but not on purpose therefore no tanking is happening..

MISA did do it last year they went 3-3 down the stretch 2-0 to finish season left Fitz in all year , it appeared they might try and tank but the change they made, made them better and they still got Tua at 5..

 

[Flamma]

Still think Tanking is for you?

Tanking is only good for one thing, it gives you a better draft pick. That's the only thing that can be truly expected. No one player on a football team is going to significantly alter your future other than a great QB.

However, if you have a really high pick, like 1st or 2nd, you could trade that pick for multiple good picks. Which could help you build the team faster as long as you hit on the players. But no guarantees anywhere. It's a game outside of the game.

 

[Techsass]

The idea of going "worst to first" has ingrained itself. A team might go "worst to first" in their division but that doesn't equate to having the #1 pick.

Have a look at the last 21 years of Teams with the number 1 pick and where they ended up the following year. Most teams showed some improvement (there were no Texans in 2001 so there is nothing to improve on). Two teams the Rams and the Browns took a step back. All in all the average improvement for a team with the #1 pick is just 3.9 games. And 12 of the teams that picked #1 finished 4th in their Division the following year, two others finished 3rd. Only 4 teams in the past 21 years made the play-offs, and were out after the Wild Card game.

Year Draft Pos Team School Prior Next Change Finished
2000 Courtney Brown DE Cleveland Browns Penn St 2-14 3-13 1 6
2001 Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Va.Tech 4-12 7-9 3 4
2002 David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St 0-0 4-12 0 4
2003 Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2-14 8-8 6 2
2004 Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers NC St. 4-12 12-4 8 lost WC*
2005 Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2-14 4-12 2 4
2006 Mario Williams DE Houston Texans NC St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2-14 4-12 2 4
2008 Jake Long T Miami Dolphins Michigan 1-15 11-5 10 lost WC
2009 Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 0-16 2-14 2 4
2010 Sam Bradford QB St. Lois Rams Oklahoma 1-15 7-9 6 2
2011 Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2 -14 6-10 4 3
2012 Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2013 Eric Fisher T KC Chiefs Central Michigan 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2014 Jadevon Clowney DE Houston Texans South Carolina 2-14 9-7 7 2
2015 Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Bucs Florida St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2016 Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 7-9 4-12 -3 3
2017 Myles Garrett DE Cleveland Browns Texas A&M 0-16 7-8-1 7 4
2018 Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 7-8-1 6-10 -1 4
2019 Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals. Oklahoma 3-13 5-10-1 2 4
2020 Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2-14 2-5-1 0 4

Of the 15 QBs taken #1 overall only 2, Luck and Rivers) made it to the play-offs their first year.
The Other two play-off teams took T (Fisher and Long).

Still think Tanking is for you?

* A note about Rivers. The Chargers drafted Eli Manning but swapped picks with the Giants.
​

What does the "Finished" column signify? Asking for an ignorant friend of mine.

 

[texbumthelife]

The idea of going "worst to first" has ingrained itself. A team might go "worst to first" in their division but that doesn't equate to having the #1 pick.

Have a look at the last 21 years of Teams with the number 1 pick and where they ended up the following year. Most teams showed some improvement (there were no Texans in 2001 so there is nothing to improve on). Two teams the Rams and the Browns took a step back. All in all the average improvement for a team with the #1 pick is just 3.9 games. And 12 of the teams that picked #1 finished 4th in their Division the following year, two others finished 3rd. Only 4 teams in the past 21 years made the play-offs, and were out after the Wild Card game.

Year Draft Pos Team School Prior Next Change Finished
2000 Courtney Brown DE Cleveland Browns Penn St 2-14 3-13 1 6
2001 Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Va.Tech 4-12 7-9 3 4
2002 David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St 0-0 4-12 0 4
2003 Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2-14 8-8 6 2
2004 Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers NC St. 4-12 12-4 8 lost WC*
2005 Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2-14 4-12 2 4
2006 Mario Williams DE Houston Texans NC St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2007 JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2-14 4-12 2 4
2008 Jake Long T Miami Dolphins Michigan 1-15 11-5 10 lost WC
2009 Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 0-16 2-14 2 4
2010 Sam Bradford QB St. Lois Rams Oklahoma 1-15 7-9 6 2
2011 Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2 -14 6-10 4 3
2012 Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2013 Eric Fisher T KC Chiefs Central Michigan 2-14 11-5 9 lost WC
2014 Jadevon Clowney DE Houston Texans South Carolina 2-14 9-7 7 2
2015 Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Bucs Florida St. 2-14 6-10 4 4
2016 Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 7-9 4-12 -3 3
2017 Myles Garrett DE Cleveland Browns Texas A&M 0-16 7-8-1 7 4
2018 Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 7-8-1 6-10 -1 4
2019 Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals. Oklahoma 3-13 5-10-1 2 4
2020 Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2-14 2-5-1 0 4

Of the 15 QBs taken #1 overall only 2, Luck and Rivers) made it to the play-offs their first year.
The Other two play-off teams took T (Fisher and Long).

Still think Tanking is for you?

* A note about Rivers. The Chargers drafted Eli Manning but swapped picks with the Giants.
​

This team isn't in a "worst" position. That's the point. This team is super talented, but snake bit this season. It's been injuries and the plague shortened offseason that have hamstrung this team. Adding high picks to an already talented roster would put this team over the top and into SB contention.

 

[GORICO]

We aren’t picking 1st. We’re picking 3-4.

Remember 2015? Banged up squad, lost starting QB. Ended up 4-12. Solid draft picking 4th and ended up 13-3 the next year and one play from the NFC Championship.

bingo Sean

 

[GORICO]

So you're ok with losing on purpose?

Ranching--- i dont think we will have to lose on purpose....its called organically tanking

 

[blueblood70]

This team isn't in a "worst" position. That's the point. This team is super talented, but snake bit this season. It's been injuries and the plague shortened offseason that have hamstrung this team. Adding high picks to an already talented roster would put this team over the top and into SB contention.

yes a lot like 2015s 4-12 to 2016s 13-3 just getting healthy and reboot with nice draft of salty defenders will get us on track..this Year is just getting three flat tires on road trip and only having one spare..lol

 

[texbumthelife]

yes a lot like 2015s 4-12 to 2016s 13-3 just getting healthy and reboot with nice draft of salty defenders will get us on track..this Year is just getting three flat tires on road trip and only having one spare..lol

Imagine even adding just two blue chip defenders to this team. Or a stud OL and a blue hip defender.

 

[blueblood70]

Ranching--- i dont think we will have to lose on purpose....its called organically tanking

no its called organically losing.. that word is not real in a owner, Gms, players or coaches vocabulary's. Its fan narrative and really doesnt truly exist..

its seem to take on a life if it own for fans ..

 

[texbumthelife]

yes a lot like 2015s 4-12 to 2016s 13-3 just getting healthy and reboot with nice draft of salty defenders will get us on track..this Year is just getting three flat tires on road trip and only having one spare..lol

On the road to Wally World that winds up being closed anyway.

 

[garyo1954]

What does the "Finished" column signify? Asking for an ignorant friend of mine.

Apologize for the horrible alignment. It was nice and neat in the write up.

Finished is the column that tells what position they finished in their division. 4 would be last. 2 is second but not a Wild Card team. Make sense?

 

[Ranching]

We aren’t losing on purpose.

But if you look at our schedule, we should win a few more games. The Giants and WFT are next up in line. So we should end up in the 3-5 range winning about 4 games.

My issue is with fans that are rooting for us to lose.

 

[GORICO]

no its called organically losing.. that word is not real in a owner, Gms, players or coaches vocabulary's. Its fan narrative and really doesnt truly exist..

its seem to take on a life if it own for fans ..

if you want to be technical?

 

[blueblood70]

On the road to Wally World that winds up being closed anyway.

yup this years draft will be AAA and we will be back on the road..