CFZ The big gamble this organization continues to make

[Bobhaze]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

 

[GoCowboysGo]

I agree that the scouting dept drafts well compared to the field.

My problem is their focus. Which isn’t the trenches, well, not until Romo was in his later years.

That’s when the focus started on a complete OL, but from the mid-90’s to this day, they have not put sufficient focus on the middle of the DL.

Sure, they hit a time or two, but never on a complete line with big, gap eating players to keep LB’s clean and let the DEs generate more rush.

It’s like the Jones’s just like flashy stars at flashy positions. Irvin and Sanders spoiled them.

Then they get spooked when something goes wrong, and now the offense is so unbalanced once again, opposing defenses only have to worry about the passing game, just like GB.

My hope is they sign or trade for a very good RB after week one to avoid a guaranteed salary and to avoid messing up the comp pick formula (if that even applies).

 

[JBS]

@KingintheNorth has been talking about this for the better part of at least a decade

 

[TWOK11]

But see, it has worked. Dallas has been more competitive over the last 30 years than all but 7-8 other franchises. And since 1995 every team with similar or better regular season metrics (win %, PPG, PPG allowed, pro bowlers, all pro selections, etc.) has EITHER won a SB or played in at least 2 of them.

What the Cowboys are is a statistical anomaly in the playoffs, similar to the Chiefs from the early 90s to 2019. All the numbers say they should have made multiple SB runs but **** happens. The goal is to be consistently competitive and make the playoffs year over year and eventually the bounces in the single elimination format will go your way. There will be a reversion to the mean if the Cowboys continue winning 10-12 games a year and posting top 5-10 passing efficiency metrics. Any arguments to the contrary rely entirely on magical, superstitious thinking and run counter the totality of NFL and professional sports data across generations.

 

[TWOK11]

I agree that the scouting dept drafts well compared to the field.

My problem is their focus. Which isn’t the trenches, well, not until Romo was in his later years.

That’s when the focus started on a complete OL, but from the mid-90’s to this day, they have not put sufficient focus on the middle of the DL.

Sure, they hit a time or two, but never on a complete line with big, gap eating players to keep LB’s clean and let the DEs generate more rush.

It’s like the Jones’s just like flashy stars at flashy positions. Irvin and Sanders spoiled them.

Then they get spooked when something goes wrong, and now the offense is so unbalanced once again, opposing defenses only have to worry about the passing game, just like GB.

My hope is they sign or trade for a very good RB after week one to avoid a guaranteed salary and to avoid messing up the comp pick formula (if that even applies).

The last time a superbowl winner had a running game that you went into the matchup strategically worried about was over a decade ago.

The data is overwhelming and irrefutable at this point: Rushing success has almost no correlation with team across across time and hasn’t in nearly 20 years.

 

[GORICO]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

you are one of the savviest reporters on the zone....when the owner is the GM and cannot get out of his own way every year it does not matter....in 2018 Jerry

chose...Hey we can make it work without any real WR's?....first 8 games 3-5....final 8....7-1...we gave up a first for Cooper and it paid off and we even won

our first wild card with Dak....then we just gave Cooper away for next to nothing and he is still balling.....Jerry is so proud that he turned 140 million into 8+ billion

He cannot get out of his own way.....Great Marketeer ....but lousy GM

 

[Diehardblues]

Unfortunately in our owners mind it is working.

They have a relative product which is enough to hype and promote their iconic brand.

 

[StarLord]

Something has gotten under my skin the last few years...

The draft is out strength, and the FO's team building philosophy revolves around it, clearly.

What bothers me is if the draft is the central focus why do they not trade players at or just after their peaks for high draft capital?

We mostly resign our guys to contracts that go past their prime and then push a bunch of dead money to the backend.

 

[big dog cowboy]

A big red flag that waves 24/7 over everything that is the Cowboys can't be ignored. Jerry Jones thinks he is the smartest man in the room. How anyone can't see that as a huge issue is beyond me.

Not building the Cowboys by using any means possible is crazy. Like Bob said "our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building." He is putting the Cowboys behind the 8 ball from the start.

 

[Staubacher]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

They don't care they're making money. Most fans are excited to wear their Zeke jersey again and think the draft gave us 5 instant starters.

Jerrah and his fat slow son are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[JW82]

They tie their own hands behind their backs when it comes to team building. No one is asking them to bring in 5 of the top 10 free agents every year. But even in a great draft, you're lucky to get 3 impact players. Maybe 4. Hard to upgrade 22 starters, 3 players at a time. 7 year rebuilds aren't a thing. BUT if you can get 2-3 impact FA's and another 2 rotational players then find 3 in the draft you can substantially change your team in one off season.

 

[dupree89]

The last time a superbowl winner had a running game that you went into the matchup strategically worried about was over a decade ago.

The data is overwhelming and irrefutable at this point: Rushing success has almost no correlation with team across across time and hasn’t in nearly 20 years.

I agree. I get your point. But I will say, when you are up 5 with the ball, with four minutes to go.....having a running game you can count on sure makes life easier.

 

[ErikWilliamsHeadSlap]

He's become a company man. I miss the Wild Bill maverick.

Nah. No way he is CIA. Even they aren't that nuts.

 

[Montanalo]

You've all heard the old adage, "If the only tool in the toolbox is a hammer, then everything looks like a nail"?

It is sometimes referred to as The Law of the Instrument or Maslow's hammer and is really a description of cognitive bias. Basically, it means simplifying information through an internal filter like experience or preference.

In my opinion, there are two recent examples of Jerry Jones's cognitive bias: Jason Garrett and Dak Prescott (and, no, this isn't a Dak Hate post). In both cases, JJ was so convinced of success with JG and/or DP, that he ignored other data and information. The result was JG was kept way beyond his use-by date and Dak was tagged then signed to a massive extension.

Hind sight is 20/20 and it is easy to look back on historic decisions and say, "here's what went wrong" or "here's what we learned". With JJ's bias, I am not sure the Cowboys are a good example of a learning organization.

 

[Cowboys5217]

But see, it has worked. Dallas has been more competitive over the last 30 years than all but 7-8 other franchises.

There are only 4 other teams besides the Cowboys who have yet to appear in a conference title game THIS CENTURY.

You can conjure up whatever excuses and cope, but Dallas has been bottom five worst playoff teams in the 21st century.

It has not worked at all.

 

[john van brocklin]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

It does not work.
We got 28 years of results that confirm this.

 

[Creeper]

Exactly right! Excellent post.

One other point I would add about why the drafting only strategy is flawed. If you are successful drafting then chances are you will not be able to keep all your draft picks more than 4 years because of the CAP. There is no way you can build a roster this way because you are turning over players as fast as you are drafting them. The Cowboys have gotten close but are always a player or two away.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

The goal is to be consistently competitive and make the playoffs year over year and eventually the bounces in the single elimination format will go your way.

x 100.........it's the goal EVERY NFL team starts the season. NO coach and/or GM will admit w/o a Super Bowl appearance, their season is a failure. The Cowboys ......

Been to the playoffs 36 times
40 winning seasons
8 Super Bowl appearances
I am not excusing the last 25 years........but three consecutive 12-5 seasons are nothing to yawn at. Remember under Garrett we had three successive 8-8 seasons. While I admit we need to do something, but stripping the team down and rebuilding scares me a bit. Why.....it's hard to now win in this league. The league has way more parity than years ago. The margin from one team to the next isn't that wide but to have a chance, one thing is for sure, you better have an elite QB or coach or both.

 

[Cowfan75Lives]

Our owner literally told us that he doesn't need to win a Super Bowl. Hanging around the rim is all he's interested in. That hasn't been hard to do in a weak division. But once the division finally improves? Well...we have Cap Boy.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Exactly right! Excellent post.

One other point I would add about why the drafting only strategy is flawed. If you are successful drafting then chances are you will not be able to keep all your draft picks more than 4 years because of the CAP. There is no way you can build a roster this way because you are turning over players as fast as you are drafting them. The Cowboys have gotten close but are always a player or two away.

+1 .........this is where Stephen's refusal to sign a few quality free agents hurt.