CFZ The big gamble this organization continues to make

[fivetwos]

Unfortunately in our owners mind it is working.

They have a relative product which is enough to hype and promote their iconic brand.

I’m not trying to pile on, but let’s be real about what may be a very large part of the problem in Dallas….

These two aren’t qualified to be NFL GMs, they just want to play the role on TV, so they rely on coaches and scouts to tell them what’s going on with player development and potential much more than your typical GM would. I’m not saying they all don’t, but in Dallas it’s much more the case.

Those coaches and scouts are of course not going to say that they did an awful job of scouting or coaching, and just maybe that’s why Jerry and kid overrate what’s actually in house far too often, and to a misleading degree.

I wouldn’t sign expensive free agents either if I was led to believe I didn’t need them because ‘so and so, and so and so…’ are developing nicely…etc.

 

[G2]

We're a 12 win team. Again. I just got done watching this Jackwagon front office completely ignore the RB position for over 2 years. What drafting and team managing geniuses!
And when Jerry passes, nothing will improve, just the same BS.

 

[thunderpimp91]

But the thing is, Dallas has been a top-5 team in the league multiple times just in the last 15 years. We were the second best team in 2007, top-5 in 2009, 2014, 2016 and 2022-2023.

Again, eventually a reversion to the mean will occur. Teams that win that many games that often will eventually win in the playoffs.

Here's the problem though....If 15 years isn't a large enough sample size for things to even out then it's not an applicable way to build a team in that sport. I love this approach for baseball where run differentials will get me where I need to be over the course of 162 games, and its just random enough of a sport where if I get into the playoffs year after year I'm bound to make a lucky run eventually. I think football is a different animal though

I think this past season is the perfect example why. 12 wins, 2 seed, +194PD....It's extremely tough to be any better than that in the NFL. Despite being such a good team they couldn't even play competitive games against SF, Buffalo, and Green Bay. Granted even good teams can get blown out it's rare to see three complete duds like that from a legitimate contender where you get destroyed on both sides of the ball. Combine that with most data suggesting this team is bottom 3rd in the league in strength of schedule last year and it seems pretty clear that this team was top 5 in record only. Despite the record they were simply not built to match up with dual threat teams on either side of the football.

The one exception here that Ill give you is that 2007 team. That team was plenty good enough to win the whole thing and came up short in a flukey playoff game.

 

[nhcowboysfan]

Something has gotten under my skin the last few years...

The draft is out strength, and the FO's team building philosophy revolves around it, clearly.

What bothers me is if the draft is the central focus why do they not trade players at or just after their peaks for high draft capital?

We mostly resign our guys to contracts that go past their prime and then push a bunch of dead money to the backend.

The Patriots were excellent at letting go players before their contracts were up knowing they would be demanding to be paid at market rate. Despite the fact they drafted near or at the bottom of every round, they still came away with quality players because they would have several picks - and opportunities - in rounds 2, 3, and 4. Every year it seems like a few teams have eight picks in the first 3 rounds while we patiently have to wait for our predicable one pick each round.

 

[StarLord]

The Patriots were excellent at letting go players before their contracts were up knowing they would be demanding to be paid at market rate. Despite the fact they drafted near or at the bottom of every round, they still came away with quality players because they would have several picks - and opportunities - in rounds 2, 3, and 4. Every year it seems like a few teams have eight picks in the first 3 rounds while we patiently have to wait for our predicable one pick each round.

Yeah the Pats were the main team I was thinking about when I wrote the post.

 

[ArtClink]

Well said BD. And what’s frustrating is the Cowboys are good enough in the draft to have enough talent to be competitive in the regular season. But without the other two pieces of team building, the Cowboys are limited. So in essence, our ability to really compete is hamstrung by our owner. Which 31 other teams don’t have as a liability.

Plus Jerry has been making head coaching decisions like hiring a coordinator before the HC is even hired. The cuts the legs out from under the sap that takes the impossible hc job in Dallas.

 

[Roadtrip635]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

I guess that's what Jerry means by "going all in". It's not about going all in to make the team better, just going all in on the draft. It's not even a gamble, it's wishful thinking, which has better odds, getting struck by lightning, winning the Powerball or literally every draft pick becoming immediate impact stars to take us to a NFC Championship Game?

 

[Cowboys5217]

Read the rest of the post

I did, and it doesn't change anything. You have to deal with the bottom line, and the Cowboys are bottom five playoffs in the 21st century. There is no selling that up, nor gas-lighting it away. It's not working, and hasn't in decades.

 

[NoLuv4Jerry]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

That's because the draft is where you get the "deal", best bang for your buck etc...that is what gets Jerry's blood flowing....making deals! And that is what he's good at....so it's a perfect marriage....he gets to put his stamp on the team doing something he likes and is good at.
He already has 3 SBs...is already in the HOF...so the PRIMARY objective is to make money...winning along the way is gravy.

I feel like a broken record...because I've been saying this forever.

The Jaylon Smith experiment is one of MANY examples of Jerry's TRUE objective. Getting a top 5 talent in the 2nd round. Keeping him on the roster all year to keep fans salivating about his potential to be the secret sauce. Then teasing us late in the season that he would be riding in on a white horse to push us over the top (a guy who has not even put on pads since his college bowl game. A guy who has never ever made a tackle in the NFL at this point)! Then re-signing him because the wheeler and dealer was getting his butt kicked by Zeke at the negotiating table.....so he needed to make a deal with somebody AND he bragged about it being a good deal (there's that word again)...(I think they made him the highest paid OLB in NFL history at the point)

That whole saga was everything that makes Jerry Jerry. He leaped at the chance to outsmart the rest of the NFL on draft night...then he doubled and tripled down on so he didn't have to admit the entire experiment was ill conceived...then moved on without any repercussions because he's the Owner AND GM.

And for those not paying attention, his son will be worse!

 

[Carter]

At some point you have to go ALL IN in Free Agency too to compete for a SB.

This is just how it works in the Salary Cap Era. See the Rams, Eagles and Bucs most recently.

There are few exceptions like SF and The Chiefs that somehow can compete every year because of elite Coaching, in case of KC elite QB play and making smart business decisions while still drafting well too.

For most Teams that wont work. At some point you have to really go ALL In and risk being bottom feeders for a few years after.

 

[Carter]

At some point you have to go ALL IN in Free Agency too to compete for a SB.

This is just how it works in the Salary Cap Era. See the Rams, Eagles and Bucs most recently.

There are few exceptions like SF and The Chiefs that somehow can compete every year because of elite Coaching, in case of KC elite QB play and making smart business decisions while still drafting well too.

For most Teams that wont work. At some point you have to really go ALL In and risk being bottom feeders for a few years after.

Addition:

Philly had 1 Wildcard Berth from 2011 - 2017 with 4 Losing Seasons and one 8-8 Season before Winning the SB in 2017 when they went All in.

TB had 12 (!) Playoff-less seasons in a row with 11 losing seasons before Winning the SB in 2020 going All in with Brady

 

[boysfanindc]

There are only 4 other teams besides the Cowboys who have yet to appear in a conference title game THIS CENTURY.

You can conjure up whatever excuses and cope, but Dallas has been bottom five worst playoff teams in the 21st century.

It has not worked at all.

And a smart man would realize it is not working and make course corrections, is Jerry smart I believe he is but his downfall is his Texas size ego. He would rather not succeed then have some one else take credit for winning with his team.

 

[IrishAnto]

x 100.........it's the goal EVERY NFL team starts the season. NO coach and/or GM will admit w/o a Super Bowl appearance, their season is a failure. The Cowboys ......

Been to the playoffs 36 times
40 winning seasons
8 Super Bowl appearances
I am not excusing the last 25 years........but three consecutive 12-5 seasons are nothing to yawn at. Remember under Garrett we had three successive 8-8 seasons. While I admit we need to do something, but stripping the team down and rebuilding scares me a bit. Why.....it's hard to now win in this league. The league has way more parity than years ago. The margin from one team to the next isn't that wide but to have a chance, one thing is for sure, you better have an elite QB or coach or both.

I'm yawning at the three consecutive 12-5 seasons in no small part of the 1-2 post season record that came of those seasons and the abject post season failure of the 25 seasons that preceded them!
It show just how far our expectations have fallen, that three consecutive 12-5 wining regular seasons without any post season success can the lauded my many fans on this board!

 

[Chasing6]

I'm yawning at the three consecutive 12-5 seasons in no small part of the 1-2 post season record that came of those seasons and the abject post season failure of the 25 seasons that preceded them!
It show just how far our expectations have fallen, that three consecutive 12-5 wining regular seasons without any post season success can the lauded my many fans on this board!

Maybe you should take a nap for a while.

 

[SwagSurfer]

Good post per usual. I think our coaching staff has failed in the developing of our talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball, especiallyon the d line. I don't know if it's out of loyalty, the Jones' being cheap or both. They need to bring in better assistant coaches for the front 7. I think AL Harris has done well with the DB's but the others struggle with the non 1st rd talent.

The cap management will always be a problem with itchy and scratchy running things.

 

[gtb1943]

building a team is a three legged stool
Draft
FA
Trades

I think you have to be around 3/4 in each to build a championship team which equals 2 and 1/4

We are trying to balance on about 1 and 1/2 legs

I would give us a 3/4 in the draft
1/4 FA
1/2 (might be generous) in Trades

and there is of course coaching which is another area we are not as good in as we should be

 

[Chasing6]

building a team is a three legged stool
Draft
FA
Trades

I think you have to be around 3/4 in each to build a championship team which equals 2 and 1/4

We are trying to balance on about 1 and 1/2 legs

I would give us a 3/4 in the draft
1/4 FA
1/2 (might be generous) in Trades

and there is of course coaching which is another area we are not as good in as we should be

I get your point, but your fractions don't add up.

So we should be 225% all in?

GM Jethro will not even commit to 50% all in.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I'm yawning at the three consecutive 12-5 seasons in no small part of the 1-2 post season record that came of those seasons and the abject post season failure of the 25 seasons that preceded them!
It show just how far our expectations have fallen, that three consecutive 12-5 wining regular seasons without any post season success can the lauded my many fans on this board!

Well you could also have three 5-12 seasons wondering when you will ever see the playoffs. Which would you rather do?

 

[IrishAnto]

Well you could also have three 5-12 seasons wondering when you will ever see the playoffs. Which would you rather do?

Well if you had three 5-12 seasons you might have a legitimate chance of drafting a QB that might be able of carrying the team to playoff success.
Picking at the back end of each round???

 

[GMO415]

We all know most teams in today’s cap era NFL that build serious contenders for playoff success use a three pronged approach to improving their rosters from year to year. It requires several key components:

• Savvy scouting, drafting and developing young players to become your primary pipeline of talent.
• A few key free agent or trade acquisitions that provide an immediate upgrade at certain positions. (Sometimes you can’t wait for all the young talent you drafted to develop. Otherwise you lose whole seasons)
• Free agent moves are only a serious option when your front office has meticulously managed the salary cap so you have the flexibility to make the FA moves you need after you have signed some of your cornerstone pieces.

Our front office gets at least 1/3 of the above parts done pretty well. The Cowboys are in the top third of the league when it comes to drafting talent to build around. Unfortunately when it comes to the free agency and cap management parts of team building, our FO is ham fisted.

So in essence, our FO chooses to place all its chips on one of the three parts of team building: The draft and development piece. It’s good that we are fairly good at that. But it’s not enough if you’re serious about competing for a championship NOW. To put it even simpler, our front office gambles every year on the hope that our drafts and development of players will be enough to beat all the good teams using free agency and trades too.

Not surprisingly it’s a gamble only those executives with lifetime contracts regardless of results can afford to make. And it’s a gamble they created because they are so poor at managing the cap, making acquisitions of some key free agents not a realistic option.

So as we go into 2024, our FO has placed all their chips on guys we HOPE will develop - Sam Williams, Jalen Tolbert, Damone Clark, Mazi Smith, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown, Tyler Guyton, Marshawn Kneeland, and Cooper Bebee, and some other youngsters.

Don‘t get me wrong, I like those players. I believe in drafting and developing players. But that’s a big gamble that all those guys are going to be able to carry a ton of responsibility this upcoming season if we expect to be another playoff contender in 2024.

It’s a gamble. But it won’t matter if it doesn’t work because the only people held accountable for the results didn't make those decisions.

Bullet, Its almost three decades so I'd say the Jones's system sucks.