The biggest surprise about the Frederick pick

[ThreeandOut]

In recent years, it's been no secret that the Cowboys have been very conversative in grading offensive linemen. Most of us have been frustrated as they've bypassed offensive linemen in the 2nd and 3rd rounds that we feel could have helped the team. Often we then find that the Cowboys had rated these OL's 1-2 rounds later on their board than the round they were actually selected.

So to me the biggest surprise about the Frederick pick is that they actually had an OL rated higher on their board than the rest of the league. I honestly didn't think that I would see the day that Dallas would "reach" for an OL.

I admit to mixed feelings about the Frederick selection. Historically, trading down and/or selecting a player perceived as a reach has not been a successful draft strategy in the post-Jimmy era. Usually, the Cowboys fare better when a highly rated player falls into their laps as Floyd's drop appeared to represent.

As nice as it would have been to have taken Floyd, I believe if they had taken him over Frederick, the rest of the Cowboys draft would not have been significantly (sans the extra third round pick). Jerry called Frederick the "last of the Mohican" which means he was the last OL that they felt could make an immediate contribution. That tells me that they likely had Escobar, Williams, and Wilcox rated higher than any of the remaining OL's.

In this scenario it's very possible that an OL would not have been taken in this draft. If they did take one later in the draft (likely 4th round or later), that player would almost certainly not see the field this year. I don't think that option would have been acceptable to any Cowboys fan that has seen this OL struggle in recent years. Given this alternative, we should be glad that the Cowboys came out of the first round with an OL they believe will be an immediate contributor and a mainstay in the line going foward, even if that player was considered a reach.

 

[Eskimo]

IDK how much of a reach he was given that we ranked him #22 allegedly and picked him in the 31st slot of the draft.

What is hard to say is how the rest of the league had him graded. We are only privy to what the draftniks think about player rankings which is built at least partly by what information their pro colleagues are giving to them.

Now I think what is definitely true is we were looking to strengthen the interior of the OL and had earmarked 4 players that they were interested in the first round. We know they were interested in Cooper and Warmack but both went in the top 10. We also know they were interested in TFred and likely Pugh in a tradeback scenario. I do think we were a bit surprised that Pugh and Long went right after the trade down but TFred stayed on the board for us.

Do I think TFred was the highest rated player on our board when we picked him? I don't think so but he was probably in the top 5 left at that stage and the only one who was an OL.

As far as the new draft grading of OL I'm not sure how different it is. I think it would be fair to say that Callahan and Houck might have been looking for slightly different skill sets and that may reflect how high OL get ranked in one scheme vs. another. For awhile it seemed we valued size and experience. Then when that OL burned out in 2010 we then went small but quick, agile and fast. Now that has failed we seem to be moving more towards big and agile.

 

[ThreeandOut]

IDK how much of a reach he was given that we ranked him #22 allegedly and picked him in the 31st slot of the draft.

What is hard to say is how the rest of the league had him graded. We are only privy to what the draftniks think about player rankings which is built at least partly by what information their pro colleagues are giving to them.

Now I think what is definitely true is we were looking to strengthen the interior of the OL and had earmarked 4 players that they were interested in the first round. We know they were interested in Cooper and Warmack but both went in the top 10. We also know they were interested in TFred and likely Pugh in a tradeback scenario. I do think we were a bit surprised that Pugh and Long went right after the trade down but TFred stayed on the board for us.

Do I think TFred was the highest rated player on our board when we picked him? I don't think so but he was probably in the top 5 left at that stage and the only one who was an OL.

As far as the new draft grading of OL I'm not sure how different it is. I think it would be fair to say that Callahan and Houck might have been looking for slightly different skill sets and that may reflect how high OL get ranked in one scheme vs. another. For awhile it seemed we valued size and experience. Then when that OL burned out in 2010 we then went small but quick, agile and fast. Now that has failed we seem to be moving more towards big and agile.

When I say reach, I mean that the Cowboys had him rated higher than the general consensus. The Cowboys had a high second round grade, whereas the general consensus had him going from probably mid-2nd to mid-3rd round. He really went right about where he should based on their draft board. But it's been much more common in recent years that the Cowboys rate OL's lower on their draft board than where they typically go. So Frederick definitely seems to be an exception for them.

 

[burmafrd]

He was rated on our board as a 2nd rd pick. Just like most of the rest of the league. Do not know why you think we had him rated much higher then anyone else; and you have no idea how any other draft board had him rated.

 

[ThreeandOut]

He was rated on our board as a 2nd rd pick. Just like most of the rest of the league. Do not know why you think we had him rated much higher then anyone else; and you have no idea how any other draft board had him rated.

Well, unless you have their draft boards, you really can't say most of the rest of the league had him rated as a second rounder. Really, all we have to go by are these mock drafts and the reactions from NFL commentators about his value (some of which is based on discussions with NFL scouts). That consensus seems to place him from mid-2nd to mid-3rd value. So with a high second round grade, Dallas likely valued him about 1/2 round to 1 rounder higher than most NFL teams.

 

[jobberone]

I don't care whether or not they had a first round grade on him or they had him in the top of the second. He was the last of the OL that most had projected to start early on and more importantly was an interior lineman they felt could start contribute immediately. He filled the largest need on the team so I'm fine with it.

 

[CF74]

I don't care whether or not they had a first round grade on him or they had him in the top of the second. He was the last of the OL that most had projected to start early on and more importantly was an interior lineman they felt could start contribute immediately. He filled the largest need on the team so I'm fine with it.

Not to mention there was a run on O-line that were taken earlier than projected...

 

[Deep_Freeze]

I don't care whether or not they had a first round grade on him or they had him in the top of the second. He was the last of the OL that most had projected to start early on and more importantly was an interior lineman they felt could start contribute immediately. He filled the largest need on the team so I'm fine with it.

Yeah I think this thought process of 'getting the most value' is for the birds in this circumstance. Point blank, if we don't make that pick, everyone on this board is complaining that we didn't do anything to address the OL again, if we do make the pick its a 'reach'. The cowboys can't win with alot of these people at this point.

They have picked OL with their first round pick in 2 of the last 3 drafts, so they have spent a massive amount of resources to try to fix the OL as really thats what has been successful for teams like the Browns and Jets OL (even though the teams suck). Of course they needed the help, but at some point it has to be realized there are other needs on this team that need to be addressed also with BPA and thats exactly what the team did with the rest of its picks.

Some people will never be happy unless they are miserable and make everyone around them the same.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Yeah I think this thought process of 'getting the most value' is for the birds in this circumstance. Point blank, if we don't make that pick, everyone on this board is complaining that we didn't do anything to address the OL again, if we do make the pick its a 'reach'. The cowboys can't win with alot of these people at this point.

They have picked OL with their first round pick in 2 of the last 3 drafts, so they have spent a massive amount of resources to try to fix the OL as really thats what has been successful for teams like the Browns and Jets OL (even though the teams suck). Of course they needed the help, but at some point it has to be realized there are other needs on this team that need to be addressed also with BPA and thats exactly what the team did with the rest of its picks.

Some people will never be happy unless they are miserable and make everyone around them the same.

That bolded part was actually a point that I made in the original post. If we don't take Frederick, then we may not even take an OL, and certainly not one that is likely to contribute this year. So the pick is one we needed to make.

Don't fixate too much on my use of the term "reach" in the original post. My main point is that the Cowboys tend to be more conservative in how they rate OL's. It's rare that they would be on the high end of their draft ratings for an OL. It just speaks how strongly they feel about the player. A few years back, the Cowboys had Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman rated as first round picks on their board. This was hardly a consensus rating on these players. The Cowboys were correct in their evaluation of these players, hopefully they will be with Frederick as well.

 

[Eddie]

He did not expect to get taken until the 3rd round.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I think the pick was perfect. I also think it wouldn't have been unreasonable to not trade down and take him at #18. It's simple: We needed OL, especially interior OL. He was most likely the 3rd highest-rated interior OLman on our board and everyone else's board. He was also the highest-rated center in the entire draft, a position we've been looking to solidify for years. We would have loved to get Cooper or Warmack, and we would most likely have taken one of the big 4 tackles (Fluker included) if one had fallen. Unfortunately, those 6 guys were taken in the top 10, which no one saw happening, so we didn't hesitate to take the highest-rated guy left on the board. Not to mention, we were able to trade down and grab Miles Austin's likely replacement too.

 

[Deep_Freeze]

That bolded part was actually a point that I made in the original post. If we don't take Frederick, then we may not even take an OL, and certainly not one that is likely to contribute this year. So the pick is one we needed to make.

Don't fixate too much on my use of the term "reach" in the original post. My main point is that the Cowboys tend to be more conservative in how they rate OL's. It's rare that they would be on the high end of their draft ratings for an OL. It just speaks how strongly they feel about the player. A few years back, the Cowboys had Sean Lee and Navarro Bowman rated as first round picks on their board. This was hardly a consensus rating on these players. The Cowboys were correct in their evaluation of these players, hopefully they will be with Frederick as well.

Yeah it is interesting to me that some of the same people who are saying it was a reach or whatever and the pick shouldn't have been made are the same people who would be complaining if we didn't take an OL at all.

We didnt reach anymore than the Giants or Bears did, and we got another pick in the process. The staff must have felt that it was Frederick or no OL help this year....and guess what, that wasn't an option for this team cause we needed the help and all of our targets where gone early with the exception of maybe Pugh who went too early anyway.

Anyone who has ever read any of my posts knows I feel that the draft should always be BPA, regardless, but of course the higher up in the draft you are the more need creeps into the picture. Well in this circumstance, I do support the pick even if it wasn't BPA simply cause of the need there and the possibility of getting no help at all for the OL this year. I would rather have BPA, but unfortunately this draft was snake eyes for us and we had to make a move that was best for this team right now which just happened to be Frederick.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Another thing about the OL is you could tell they only wanted to draft guys who would come in and start on day 1, not project OLmen like in the past. Despite drafting a OLman in the first round, people were STILL complaining that we didn't draft more OLmen. That's probably because we didn't see any guys in the later rounds who we thought would be an immediate starter. We may have been able to get a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round, but we also had other needs. People are unrealistic if they think we're gonna spend our first 3 picks on OLmen. We wanted to give Romo more weapons and transition to a 12 style offense, and we wanted to get a safety who could compete for a starting job. The 4th round and beyond is for projects. There's only so much we can do in the first 3 rounds. We only viewed Cooper, Warmack, the 4 tackles, Frederick, Pugh and Long as day 1 starters. And we got our guy. How are people still complaining?

 

[jnday]

Another thing about the OL is you could tell they only wanted to draft guys who would come in and start on day 1, not project OLmen like in the past. Despite drafting a OLman in the first round, people were STILL complaining that we didn't draft more OLmen. That's probably because we didn't see any guys in the later rounds who we thought would be an immediate starter. We may have been able to get a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round, but we also had other needs. People are unrealistic if they think we're gonna spend our first 3 picks on OLmen. We wanted to give Romo more weapons and transition to a 12 style offense, and we wanted to get a safety who could compete for a starting job. The 4th round and beyond is for projects. There's only so much we can do in the first 3 rounds. We only viewed Cooper, Warmack, the 4 tackles, Frederick, Pugh and Long as day 1 starters. And we got our guy. How are people still complaining?

The complaints should have come after last years draft. This years draft was very top heavy when it came to linemen.

 

[Nexx]

He did not expect to get taken until the 3rd round.

he said in his interview he was expecting second round... i highly highly doubt he would have made it past the early part of the second round.

 

[Yuma Cactus]

The most glaring thing I noticed about many who graded W-T-Frederick a reach made mention of him not being able to hold the point of attack. Obviously anyone who says that hasn't actually watched and just went off his low bench total at the combine. "Experts", LOL.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The most glaring thing I noticed about many who graded W-T-Frederick a reach made mention of him not being able to hold the point of attack. Obviously anyone who says that hasn't actually watched and just went off his low bench total at the combine. "Experts", LOL.

It's group think. The cottage industry is notorious for it.

 

[DFWJC]

I'm fine with the Frederick pick, especially when Williams was part of that deal.

He may have been there at 47, but we don't know either way. Anyone that says they know one way or the other is full of it.

The point is, Dallas did not what to wait another 16 picks to find out.

I do think there are several Olineman taken after round one that will have real good careers though. The question was could they step in this year and start? Again,nobody knows,but the odds were getting longer.

 

[speedkilz88]

He did not expect to get taken until the 3rd round.

he said in his interview he was expecting second round... i highly highly doubt he would have made it past the early part of the second round.

Yeah, the BS really flies around here. I've heard the interviews of Frederick. He said that he thought he would go early 2nd and possibly late 1st. He said when he saw the Cowboys trade down that he thought they might be trading down for him.

I believe when his agent was asked that he said there was no way he was making it out of the 2nd round.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Who cares if we may have drafted 20-30 picks too early? We may have solidified the center position for the next decade.