The biggest surprise about the Frederick pick

[Picksix]

Well, unless you have their draft boards, you really can't say most of the rest of the league had him rated as a second rounder. Really, all we have to go by are these mock drafts and the reactions from NFL commentators about his value (some of which is based on discussions with NFL scouts). That consensus seems to place him from mid-2nd to mid-3rd value. So with a high second round grade, Dallas likely valued him about 1/2 round to 1 rounder higher than most NFL teams.

True. Just as you can't say they didn't. One thing I kept hearing in the days leading up to the draft, was that teams had a lot of players ranked differently from one team to the next, some by as much as a couple of rounds. As far as the "general consensus" goes, much of the mock draft world is repetitive, and they don't rank players like teams do. One of the reasons you see guys rise or fall as the draft approaches, is because the media is catching up with the teams. A team may have had a player in the first round all along, but the media/draft pundits didn't. As a few insiders got more info, they changed their grades to match the teams, and all of a sudden a player who was projected to go in the second (like Frederick, or Pugh, or Long), ends up going in the first, or vice versa.

You can't go by the "general consensus", because so much of that is led by the Kipers/McShays/Mayocks of the world.

 

[AsthmaField]

How many times has Jerry and the Cowboys been skewered for "getting too cute" and trying to move down too much and losing Max Unger? Still, 4 years later I was hearing it.

They had to take Frederick where they did. They absolutely could not wait until their second round pick to take him.

Besides, Y Cactus is right... everyone had this guy in the first based off his play in college, it was only after his relatively low total on the bench that "experts" started ranking him in the second.

 

[ThreeandOut]

How many times has Jerry and the Cowboys been skewered for "getting too cute" and trying to move down too much and losing Max Unger? Still, 4 years later I was hearing it.

They had to take Frederick where they did. They absolutely could not wait until their second round pick to take him.

Besides, Y Cactus is right... everyone had this guy in the first based off his play in college, it was only after his relatively low total on the bench that "experts" started ranking him in the second.

The way it was originally reported, the Cowboys were looking to trade down right after the Saints took Vacarro with the intention of taking either Frederick or one other OL (Pugh). They supposedly had a better trade in place that fell through. Then they ended up taking the trade with San Francisco that moved them back to 31.

It was reported that Garrett and Ciskowski did not want to take the San Francisco trade but wanted to stay at 18 to take Floyd. But I wonder if they were okay with the original trade, but did not want to do the trade with San Franciso due to the risk of possibly losing out on their two OL prospects.

It was said that Garrett didn't look happy after the trade down. That may have had something to do with seeing Pugh and Long going off the board at 19 and 20. If Frederick had been taken before their pick, it's conceivable that you could have seen Escobar or Williams as the pick at 31. So Jerry took a risk in trading down as far as he did, and he definitely would have been guity of "getting too cute" if he had lost out on Frederick.

 

[Picksix]

How many times has Jerry and the Cowboys been skewered for "getting too cute" and trying to move down too much and losing Max Unger? Still, 4 years later I was hearing it.

They had to take Frederick where they did. They absolutely could not wait until their second round pick to take him.

Besides, Y Cactus is right... everyone had this guy in the first based off his play in college, it was only after his relatively low total on the bench that "experts" started ranking him in the second.

Actually, they didn't lose Unger because of trading down. They stayed put at their second round spot, hoping he would drop to them, instead of packaging picks to trade up to secure him. When Seattle swooped in ahead of them and took him, that's when they traded down.

 

[AsthmaField]

It was reported that Garrett and Ciskowski did not want to take the San Francisco trade but wanted to stay at 18 to take Floyd.

One thing that stands out to me about the Floyd non-pick is this: we were bracketed in the draft by Pittsburgh at 17 and the Giants at 19. Both of those teams are known for 2 things:

1. For being opportunistic and taking good players that are sliding in the draft for whatever reason

and

2. For drafting well

Both teams also had needs along the DL.

So, not only did Floyd slide, but both of these teams that are typically drafting the "good" sliding players and who draft well (and the Giants are known for over drafting on the DL) decided that they had no interest in Floyd.

In addition to that, typically when you see a talented player slide in the draft, you will see some team decide to trade up to take him because they never thought he'd get close and now they can get him for a cheap trade. Well, we didn't see that either.

It was clear for a number of reasons that Floyd wasn't nearly as highly thought of as the "draft experts" declared he was. In particular I was shocked that the Giants passed on him. That says a lot IMO.

It may go back to an old Jimmy Johnson adage. He used to say, "Run stoppers are a dime a dozen in the NFL. It is the pass rushers that you pay to get."

But I wonder if they were okay with the original trade, but did not want to do the trade with San Franciso due to the risk of possibly losing out on their two OL prospects.

It is difficult to read peoples faces and actually get what they're thinking right... but assuming they were a little upset and weren't sure about the trade with SF, it could be surmised that they were indeed worried about losing Frederick.

But they didn't.

It was said that Garrett didn't look happy after the trade down. That may have had something to do with seeing Pugh and Long going off the board at 19 and 20. If Frederick had been taken before their pick, it's conceivable that you could have seen Escobar or Williams as the pick at 31. So Jerry took a risk in trading down as far as he did, and he definitely would have been guity of "getting too cute" if he had lost out on Frederick.

He did take a slight risk, but if you listen to everyone and their brother, Frederick would have been available for us at pick 47.

The truth is, I don't think Frederick would have been there at 47. Big, strong, talented, smart centers are just too coveted in the NFL. If I had to guess, I think Baltimore would have taken him with the next pick. He is their kind of player and the position was a big need.

However, looking at who picked between 19 and 30 and what their needs were, I think it wasn't too big of a risk to take with Frederick. The risk wasn't like it was with Unger in 2009, IMO. Also, the team is playing things much closer to the vest these days with the draft, so there were no tips for a team to jump up ahead of us like there probably was with Unger.

It worked out well for Dallas. I love Frederick at center and think he will go a long way towards transforming the OL, and I also really like Terrence Williams in the 3rd. Give me that combo all day long over either Reid or Sherrif at 18.

Personally, I would have blown a gasket for reid at 18. If I was a SF fan, I would be really pissed to give up the 31st pick and a 3rd for him.

Thankfully, we got Frederick and Williams for 18.

 

[AsthmaField]

Actually, they didn't lose Unger because of trading down. They stayed put at their second round spot, hoping he would drop to them, instead of packaging picks to trade up to secure him. When Seattle swooped in ahead of them and took him, that's when they traded down.

Good call. You're correct. In my mind the line gets blurred because I said then that if you like him that much and have your heart set on him at a position you really needed, then go get the guy. Get proactive and make sure you get what you need.

I had mixed up the negligence on their part to take charge with a dumb trade back.

 

[honyock]

One thing that stands out to me about the Floyd non-pick is this: we were bracketed in the draft by Pittsburgh at 17 and the Giants at 19. Both of those teams are known for 2 things:

1. For being opportunistic and taking good players that are sliding in the draft for whatever reason

and

2. For drafting well

Both teams also had needs along the DL.

So, not only did Floyd slide, but both of these teams that are typically drafting the "good" sliding players and who draft well (and the Giants are known for over drafting on the DL) decided that they had no interest in Floyd.

In addition to that, typically when you see a talented player slide in the draft, you will see some team decide to trade up to take him because they never thought he'd get close and now they can get him for a cheap trade. Well, we didn't see that either.

It was clear for a number of reasons that Floyd wasn't nearly as highly thought of as the "draft experts" declared he was. In particular I was shocked that the Giants passed on him. That says a lot IMO.

It may go back to an old Jimmy Johnson adage. He used to say, "Run stoppers are a dime a dozen in the NFL. It is the pass rushers that you pay to get."



It is difficult to read peoples faces and actually get what they're thinking right... but assuming they were a little upset and weren't sure about the trade with SF, it could be surmised that they were indeed worried about losing Frederick.

But they didn't.



He did take a slight risk, but if you listen to everyone and their brother, Frederick would have been available for us at pick 47.

The truth is, I don't think Frederick would have been there at 47. Big, strong, talented, smart centers are just too coveted in the NFL. If I had to guess, I think Baltimore would have taken him with the next pick. He is their kind of player and the position was a big need.

However, looking at who picked between 19 and 30 and what their needs were, I think it wasn't too big of a risk to take with Frederick. The risk wasn't like it was with Unger in 2009, IMO. Also, the team is playing things much closer to the vest these days with the draft, so there were no tips for a team to jump up ahead of us like there probably was with Unger.

It worked out well for Dallas. I love Frederick at center and think he will go a long way towards transforming the OL, and I also really like Terrence Williams in the 3rd. Give me that combo all day long over either Reid or Sherrif at 18.

Personally, I would have blown a gasket for reid at 18. If I was a SF fan, I would be really pissed to give up the 31st pick and a 3rd for him.

Thankfully, we got Frederick and Williams for 18.

Nice post all around. Granted, I wasn't that wild about Floyd, so it's easy for me to say that. But the point about both the Steelers and Giants passing on him is valid and may be telling....they both love upgrading their lines and the Giants in particular seem to love to upgrade their d-line by philosophy.

At any rate, I love the Frederick and jWilliams combo. If Wes just flat lucked into it, I'm good with that.

 

[Risen Star]

he said in his interview he was expecting second round... i highly highly doubt he would have made it past the early part of the second round.

He said his agent told him 25-40. I had him 50th overall. It's a reach to me but not nearly the reach as others seemed to think it was.

It's a complete guess to say he would have been there at 47. There were 8 OL already off the board by the time we picked at 31. Only 1 OL was picked from 32-47. Maybe he would have been there but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

I have more of an issue with the next pick. Escobar. Like the player. Hate the spot. Larry Warford was signed, sealed and delivered and we decided to have one more go around of Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett.

It's like we held our noses for the Frederick pick and that got back to shiny toys. The front is fixed, now let's have some fun.

I heard Ciskowski defend only one OL/DL added in the draft and UDFA by saying "well, first....we have numbers along the OL". Yeah, you do have numbers and with the exception of one or two, they all suck. Every team has numbers. How good are those numbers, that's the question. You're upgrading talent in the draft. You have the same numbers at CB and that doesn't stop you from stockpiling them.

 

[ThreeandOut]

He said his agent told him 25-40. I had him 50th overall. It's a reach to me but not nearly the reach as others seemed to think it was.

I have more of an issue with the next pick. Escobar. Like the player. Hate the spot. Larry Warford was signed, sealed and delivered and we decided to have one more go around of Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett.

It's like we held our noses for the Frederick pick and that got back to shiny toys. The front is fixed, now let's have some fun.

I heard Ciskowski defend only one OL/DL added in the draft and UDFA by saying "well, first....we have numbers along the OL". Yeah, you do have numbers and with the exception of one or two, they all suck. Every team has numbers. How good are those numbers, that's the question. You're upgrading talent in the draft. You have the same numbers at CB and that doesn't stop you from stockpiling them.

Well Jerry called Frederick the last of the Mohicans...so they weren't going to spend the 47th pick on a player they didn't think could contribute this year.

I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that if they have a mid-to-late second round pick, they're not going to take an OL. They grade these OL's extremely conservatively, so it's not likely that their going to have one with a second round grade that late in the round.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

One thing that stands out to me about the Floyd non-pick is this: we were bracketed in the draft by Pittsburgh at 17 and the Giants at 19. Both of those teams are known for 2 things:

1. For being opportunistic and taking good players that are sliding in the draft for whatever reason

and

2. For drafting well

Both teams also had needs along the DL.

So, not only did Floyd slide, but both of these teams that are typically drafting the "good" sliding players and who draft well (and the Giants are known for over drafting on the DL) decided that they had no interest in Floyd.

I haven't thought about it from that angle but its a good point. Pittsburgh has a penchant for taking linemen in the first round. I looked at the Giants and they do not do so very much which surprised me.

 

[jnday]

The melt down would have been epic if Pugh was the pick. I would rather had Frederick with the 18th pick than have Pugh with the 31st. Frederick is strong enough to play well as a rookie and linemen with his power are rare when they first enter the pros.

 

[Idgit]

...I heard Ciskowski defend only one OL/DL added in the draft and UDFA by saying "well, first....we have numbers along the OL". Yeah, you do have numbers and with the exception of one or two, they all suck. Every team has numbers. How good are those numbers, that's the question. You're upgrading talent in the draft. You have the same numbers at CB and that doesn't stop you from stockpiling them.

Ciskowski also immediately said that there wasn't value there at OL after the first round. They liked the value in the 3rd for the defensive secondary players. It wasn't just numbers. The team just values OLs differently than you do. Both the guys on the roster, and the guys available from the college ranks.

 

[Nexx]

He said his agent told him 25-40. I had him 50th overall. It's a reach to me but not nearly the reach as others seemed to think it was.

It's a complete guess to say he would have been there at 47. There were 8 OL already off the board by the time we picked at 31. Only 1 OL was picked from 32-47. Maybe he would have been there but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

I have more of an issue with the next pick. Escobar. Like the player. Hate the spot. Larry Warford was signed, sealed and delivered and we decided to have one more go around of Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett.

It's like we held our noses for the Frederick pick and that got back to shiny toys. The front is fixed, now let's have some fun.

I heard Ciskowski defend only one OL/DL added in the draft and UDFA by saying "well, first....we have numbers along the OL". Yeah, you do have numbers and with the exception of one or two, they all suck. Every team has numbers. How good are those numbers, that's the question. You're upgrading talent in the draft. You have the same numbers at CB and that doesn't stop you from stockpiling them.

i completely agree with you on the escobar pick.. like the player but not at that spot.. would have loved warford like you said.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

He said his agent told him 25-40. I had him 50th overall. It's a reach to me but not nearly the reach as others seemed to think it was.

It's a complete guess to say he would have been there at 47. There were 8 OL already off the board by the time we picked at 31. Only 1 OL was picked from 32-47. Maybe he would have been there but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

I have more of an issue with the next pick. Escobar. Like the player. Hate the spot. Larry Warford was signed, sealed and delivered and we decided to have one more go around of Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett.

It's like we held our noses for the Frederick pick and that got back to shiny toys. The front is fixed, now let's have some fun.

I heard Ciskowski defend only one OL/DL added in the draft and UDFA by saying "well, first....we have numbers along the OL". Yeah, you do have numbers and with the exception of one or two, they all suck. Every team has numbers. How good are those numbers, that's the question. You're upgrading talent in the draft. You have the same numbers at CB and that doesn't stop you from stockpiling them.

What difference does your rating have?

 

[big dog cowboy]

I have more of an issue with the next pick. Escobar. Like the player. Hate the spot. Larry Warford was signed, sealed and delivered and we decided to have one more go around of Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett.

What makes you think that Escobar is just one more go around of Fasano and Bennett? Everything I've read he is light years ahead of either one of those players coming out of college.

 

[visionary]

IDK how much of a reach he was given that we ranked him #22 allegedly and picked him in the 31st slot of the draft.

What is hard to say is how the rest of the league had him graded. We are only privy to what the draftniks think about player rankings which is built at least partly by what information their pro colleagues are giving to them.

.

agree with your point

wouldnt it be great if the NFL mandated that all teams send them their draft ranking of their top 100 players, the morning of the draft, and then release them, after the draft, without identifying the teams?

that would create a firestorm but great fodder for discussion (and may put some media draftniks out of business)

 

[Idgit]

agree with your point

wouldnt it be great if the NFL mandated that all teams send them their draft ranking of their top 100 players, the morning of the draft, and then release them, after the draft, without identifying the teams?

that would create a firestorm but great fodder for discussion (and may put some media draftniks out of business)

It would be cool. The problem is, though, there's still enough scheme diversity that teams will legitimately have huge disparity in their rankings just because they value different physical traits so differently.

 

[visionary]

It would be cool. The problem is, though, there's still enough scheme diversity that teams will legitimately have huge disparity in their rankings just because they value different physical traits so differently.

agreed
but just for the sake of discussion

not that it is even remotely likely

 

[xwalker]

agree with your point

wouldnt it be great if the NFL mandated that all teams send them their draft ranking of their top 100 players, the morning of the draft, and then release them, after the draft, without identifying the teams?

that would create a firestorm but great fodder for discussion (and may put some media draftniks out of business)

It would be nice to see how teams had players rated. I'm not sure why it is a big secret after the draft.

It seems like the Cowboys would give this info to their own media guys after the draft is over.

 

[ethiostar]

He did not expect to get taken until the 3rd round.

Frederick was projected by most draft analysts to go in the second round and even he was somewhat surprised to be taken in the first round, "I thought somewhere in the second round would be more of a fit for me," Frederick told 105.3 the Fan in Dallas. "I truly didn't expect this."

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/e...owboys-select-travis-frederick-with-31st-pick