The Case Against Extending Elliott

[Rockport]

Positive? Most of your posts are just criticism of other posters.

Yes, but that’s positive unless you’re one of those negative posters. You can’t handle the truth. Fire away bud.

 

[CouchCoach]

It’s all about the results.

If they need all 3 to remain a playoff team then that’s what we have to do.

I’m not sure we need to sign all 3 this year. I don’t think Dak will sit out. I’m not sure about Cooper.

Isn't Cooper set to make 14M on his present contract?

You are right, you build yourself into a situation and sometimes have no choice than to ride it out. They're in a situation with both the QB and WR1 that if they do not keep them, then what? If they think they have the team to make the run now, then go for it. My opinion is that they do not but that's just my opinion and I could be wrong.

I do know one thing, I've been playing that "next year is our year" card every year and next year is here. What the hell, if they don't make it, it's not like their going to have to have a garage sale to make the house payment.

 

[Diehardblues]

Isn't Cooper set to make 14M on his present contract?

You are right, you build yourself into a situation and sometimes have no choice than to ride it out. They're in a situation with both the QB and WR1 that if they do not keep them, then what? If they think they have the team to make the run now, then go for it. My opinion is that they do not but that's just my opinion and I could be wrong.

I do know one thing, I've been playing that "next year is our year" card every year and next year is here. What the hell, if they don't make it, it's not like their going to have to have a garage sale to make the house payment.

I’m usually about and speculating what we’re going to do or more specifically what Jerry or our leadership is going to do. It’s not as important what we’d do. It’s what we think they will do.

You or I might not think this team can contend but if they do then they might want everyone regardless. That’s where I’m at and where my thoughts are.

I’m thinking they think this window with Eliiott and Prescott is potentially almost over. These next two years might be it. Ezekiel two years early has kinda thrown a wrench into all of it IMO assuming the rumors are right that he wants paid now.

So, if you’re really sold this group can do it , you might mortgage the future to hold it together at least a couple more years??

 

[CouchCoach]

I’m usually about and speculating what we’re going to do or more specifically what Jerry or our leadership is going to do. It’s not as important what we’d do. It’s what we think they will do.

You or I might not think this team can contend but if they do then they might want everyone regardless. That’s where I’m at and where my thoughts are.

I’m thinking they think this window with Eliiott and Prescott is potentially almost over. These next two years might be it. Ezekiel two years early has kinda thrown a wrench into all of it IMO assuming the rumors are right that he wants paid now.

So, if you’re really sold this group can do it , you might mortgage the future to hold it together at least a couple more years??

It's an interesting dilemma. As a fan, can you fault your FO for not doing every thing they can to max out the present season?

That's where I am, I want them to contend so I am cap conscious about keeping players but unless you're NE, you try to catch your window with your best team intact and then try to keep it together. If they go for it, they're pleasing the SB or bust fans, which is not me, but I am OK with that.

 

[Diehardblues]

It's an interesting dilemma. As a fan, can you fault your FO for not doing every thing they can to max out the present season?

That's where I am, I want them to contend so I am cap conscious about keeping players but unless you're NE, you try to catch your window with your best team intact and then try to keep it together. If they go for it, they're pleasing the SB or bust fans, which is not me, but I am OK with that.

Yea I’m with ya. I’m just trying to get into their head. Wonder what they’re thinking. Cause ultimately that’s all that matters.

If it was me I’d of kept Murray. But then I wouldn’t have benched Romo and we’d probably still have Dez too. Lol

If you want to continue churning these stud talents then you better have someone on the roster to take over. Or someone good enough to elevate lesser talent.

 

[CouchCoach]

Yea I’m with ya. I’m just trying to get into their head. Wonder what they’re thinking. Cause ultimately that’s all that matters.

Can an owner/GM/HC be objective about their own team? Booger isn't a phony optimist, that's the way he is and trained himself to be that way when he was in the wildcatter oil business. Every one of them that I've encountered is that way.

He has to ask himself 'what am I waiting for'? They really don't know what the team is going to look like next year and most I've seen have them as a playoff team. Are the Rams, Saints, Eagles and Bears really that much better? Or are they any better in the eyes of the owner? His team lost by 8 to the eventual NFC SB rep in a very unusual fashion giving up 270 yards rushing. He can call that an anomaly.

 

[Romotil45]

The case for seems to revolve around two points.

1) He's a top 3 RB.

Can't argue that point and he'd probably be #1 if he scored more TD's on a team ranked 22nd in scoring in the NFL and 14th in the NFC. You read that right, 14th in the NFC behind the NYG and PHL. The only two NFC teams to score less were WAS and AZ.

The point I will argue is the necessity of a top 3 RB on any team.

2) The Cowboys run the offense through him and the QB is not as good without him in the game.

Can't argue that point either but is there a good reason to continue doing that with the price of the player? Is that what this offense is going to be dependent on for the QB? If so, take a look at that scoring ranking in the NFC again. A full 10 ppg behind the NFCCG participants. The QB needs THIS RB to average 21 ppg?

Maybe we're looking at this problem from the wrong angle? This QB needs a run game, or at least has up until now, but the only reason he needs this RB is that he's the only RB1 he's had. Do we assume there aren't other RB's that can help the QB? Cheaper RB's? Maybe playing in college this season?

The real case for not having a top 5 paid RB is that if this offense continues to run the offense through him, it's not going anywhere. That's the offense of yesteryear and if you think they promoted an ex QB to OC to run the ball, think that one again. All of this sign Elliott is based on that #2 point. If you expect that to continue, then expect another OC next season.

The name of the game is scoring and he doesn't do that. Top 5 paid RB's don't rank 19th in rushing TD's. And top 5 paid RB's don't get 47 yards on 20 carries and 2 catches for 19 in the most important game of the season.

A good RB is a necessity, a top 5 paid one is a luxury.

If Zeke is not extended he should not have been taken 4th overall in the draft just another reason not to draft a RB that high. Having said that we did take him that high so he should be extended and because of the fact that without him we are likely to struggle. This team is built to run so run it with Zeke and play great defense. I would much rather we extend Zeke than Dak. I say you take a QB high in next years draft and franchise tag Dak.

 

[CouchCoach]

If Zeke is not extended he should not have been taken 4th overall in the draft just another reason not to draft a RB that high. Having said that we did take him that high so he should be extended and because of the fact that without him we are likely to struggle. This team is built to run so run it with Zeke and play great defense. I would much rather we extend Zeke than Dak. I say you take a QB high in next years draft and franchise tag Dak.

How high do you think they'll be drafting and what QB's will be there?

There's nothing wrong with getting 5 years out of a 1st round RB and going back to the well every 4-5 drafts for another one. The kink in this is they're not going to get 5 out of him. They might have had a discussion with him and his agent about not exercising that option year in return for him not holding out and they'll negotiate in good faith after this season.

 

[Diehardblues]

Can an owner/GM/HC be objective about their own team? Booger isn't a phony optimist, that's the way he is and trained himself to be that way when he was in the wildcatter oil business. Every one of them that I've encountered is that way.

He has to ask himself 'what am I waiting for'? They really don't know what the team is going to look like next year and most I've seen have them as a playoff team. Are the Rams, Saints, Eagles and Bears really that much better? Or are they any better in the eyes of the owner? His team lost by 8 to the eventual NFC SB rep in a very unusual fashion giving up 270 yards rushing. He can call that an anomaly.

My hunch is he thinks he’s as close as he’s been since the90’s. I’m not saying I agree.

The offense isn’t as good as 2014 but defense is much better.

 

[Diehardblues]

If Zeke is not extended he should not have been taken 4th overall in the draft just another reason not to draft a RB that high. Having said that we did take him that high so he should be extended and because of the fact that without him we are likely to struggle. This team is built to run so run it with Zeke and play great defense. I would much rather we extend Zeke than Dak. I say you take a QB high in next years draft and franchise tag Dak.

That’s not a bad strategy considering. And I’d prob agree with most of this assessment.

 

[CouchCoach]

My hunch is he thinks he’s as close as he’s been since the90’s. I’m not saying I agree.

The offense isn’t as good as 2014 but defense is much better.

And let's apply the known to this, disappointments and surprises every season with few repeaters in the NFC divisions. And those teams that are perceived as being better than DAL are a couple of injuries away form not being as good.

That's why I really have no problem with them going all in for it but I am not a SB or bust fan but quite a few here are. I would rather contend for 5 years than win 1 ring and be mediocre for 2 or 3 of those 5.

They're pretty close and no fans can fault them for going all out to get the best team on the field even if that means triplets in the top 5 paid.

 

[Romotil45]

How high do you think they'll be drafting and what QB's will be there?

There's nothing wrong with getting 5 years out of a 1st round RB and going back to the well every 4-5 drafts for another one. The kink in this is they're not going to get 5 out of him. They might have had a discussion with him and his agent about not exercising that option year in return for him not holding out and they'll negotiate in good faith after this season.

I am against taking RB's in the top 15 picks I reserve these for players likely to make it to a second contract. Very good RB's can be found in lower rounds. Zeke looks like he will make a second so it turned out OK barring a career ending injury in the next year or two. I expect we will go 10-6 this year and I expect Jason Garrett to be gone. I expect Kris Richard or some other Defensive minded Coach to get the nod. I say we will pick some-where around 15. Its too early to predict who will still be available at 15 but just about any 1st round caliber guy who can actually read defenses would be an upgrade over Dak. Dak is highly overated. Dak has difficulty reading defenses he lacks velocity to fit the ball into tight windows. He often throws the ball right at defenders. He way too often misses wide open recievers on the outside. He lacks the confidence to challenge 1:1 coverage on the outside. Dak needs recievers to be wide open to pull the trigger. He is not the QB even his numbers suggest. Can we win with Dak ? Yes with a great defense and a great running game to mask his weaknesses.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It does not matter what facts I can present.

So you're not going to actually present any information instead ask a series of open ended questions. Whatever.

You would complain about Zeke regardless of his performance because you hated the pick.[/quote]

I certainly did not complain about Zeke in 2016 from a production standpoint. 2017 and 2018 were not efficient seasons. They also represent 2/3rds of his time in the NFL.

If you really want to discuss the issue then show that you can by digesting everything below and replying with something other than just repeating you past rhetoric.

So the burden is on me to show "I really want to discuss" the issue by providing analysis and my opinion...something you decline to do?

Whats good for the goose isn't always good for the gander huh?

The impact of RBs on winning in the NFL can't be measured in commonly available stats. Defenses adapt at the expense of pass defense to limit RBs.

We know that passing efficiency is strongly correlated with winning whereas rushing efficiency is not.

The Cowboys didn't win with replacement type RBs McFadden or Alfred Morris.

Both of those RBs showed efficiency about on par with Zeke in 2018. If you're putting losing on McFadden you'd have to make the stupid argument that we win with Zeke in 2015. Is that your opinion?

The Cowboys winning seasons almost always include a highly ranked RB.
2018 & 2016 Zeke.
2014 Murray
2007 & 2009 Barber (Felix also decent in 2009)

While true this is confirmation bias. In our winning seasons we've held leads been in most every game and generally can run more. None of this points to needing to be able to run to win. In fact we see many teams win despite not having a "highly ranked RB."

Also, this ignores that the argument isn't "would I like to run well when I do run"...the obvious answer is yes you would. The question is should you try to run well by overpaying at RB. The obvious answer is no.

The Patriots have used several premium draft picks (1st and 2nd round) on RBs during the Belichick era. They had 13M of cap space allocated to RBs this season. The used a 1st on one as recently as 2018.

The patriots stand as almost the exception to every rule. Having said that add up all the draft capital the Pats have spent in the last 10 years on the RB position. You could not have traded it all in draft capital for the 4th overall pick. Also consider given the Pats spread their draft capital at the RB position across multiple specialist whose roles and usage often change by the game (ask any fantasy player) this isn't nearly an apples to apples comparison. But you knew that.

Mid round RBs often pop up for a season on the top 10 rushing list but rarely stay there consistently. The RBs that stay on that list year after year are generally 1st & 2nd round types.

The goal is not to have a RB who stays consistently in the top 10. They are cheap assets you should be looking to rotate every few seasons.

The cost to retain a top tier RB is significantly less than many other positions. The top RB contract averages 14.375M. The top QB is 35M. DLaw got 21M per and it's questionable if he is top 5 at his position. Top pass rusher Mack got 23.5M per.

Given the Salary Cap is a zero sum game the money you spend over-allocating to RB probably hurts you in spending the big money elsewhere. This is what we call addition. It's a very advanced mathematical concept.

You can see this playing out this year on the forum and across sports talk....how will the Cowboys pay Zeke, Dak, Amari and Byron!?!?!......I dunno how about by not giving Zeke almost $15MM a year? Would that help?

If the Cowboys can draft/develop a replacement then I'm OK letting Zeke move on; however, that has not happened yet.

Ad hominem.

I would have loved to draft RB Darrell Henderson in the 3rd this year. He was terrific in college but teams tend want bigger RBs these days which made Henderson 5-8, 208 available in the 3rd. He ended up getting drafted by the Rams.

I know who Darrell Henderson is. Would have been a great get given his college productivity which is in rarefied air.

I said during the 2017 draft that I would take Dalvin Cook if he made it to the Cowboys pick. He fell to #41 but the Cowboys had #60. He has had injury issues but if he developed into a legit full time reliable starter the Cowboys could have traded Zeke at around this point in his career or could have split carries between them which would have made 1 or both cost much less to re-sign. Cook could have played snaps at WR and in the offensive weapon role they had envisioned for Tavon Austin in 2018.

Ok?

I've said in the past that they should consider getting the 5 years from Zeke and then Franchise him a year or two instead of giving him a big contract. He would be 27 after 2x franchise tag years. The data shows that age 28 is when RBs are most likely to have a significant decline.

The problem is that you would have paid through the nose for 7 years for RB and also lost out on a worthy top 4 selection. This is lipstick on a pig.

Obviously RBs and their agents are going to protest the franchise tag, especially a 2nd one; therefore that might not be a realistic option. Le'Veon Bell skipped the season instead of playing on the 2nd tag but he lost 14.5M and didn't get a bigger contract than he would have if he played in 2018. He obviously avoided injury but an insurance policy would only cost about 1M considering it was a low risk that he would have a career ending injury.

Yes, obviously players will object. Also a $1MM policy was unlikely to make Bell whole on a 4 years 52MM contract. And those insurance policies are notoriously difficult to cash in on as there are so many variables. It is why players hold out instead of just signing a magical insurance contract that makes them whole.

If the Steelers had handled it differently they likely could have gotten a mid round pick by trading him but their goal was to force him to play.

Drafting a RB in the top 5 or top 10 would not be my preference in general; however, Zeke was about as close to a lock as it gets from a projected performance in the NFL perspective as it comes with draft picks. The other options all had bigger question marks.

How has the lock that is Zeke performed the last 2 years? He was replacement level last season.

Defenses play differently against Zeke than against McFadden in 2015 even when comparing games where they've had similar stats. I mentioned previously defenses adjust to limit RBs at the expense of pass defense.

What was different between 2015 and literally every other year of Zeke's career? Did he have the worst QB play for the Cowboys in the last 25 years?

⁸The Patriots changed their defensive alignment to avoid the problems the Cowboys had against the Rams running game. That change made them more vulnerable against the pass. The Rams were not able to exploit the weaker pass defense alignment but it did put a bigger burden on the Pats pass defenders than their standard alignment (they basically had to cover a WR with a LB and Safety instead of a CB depending on the Rams formation in order to stay in the preferred run defense alignment).

Using the patriots again? That's like using Hitler in an argument. You think you're being clever but often you're not.

Also comparing a superbowl gameplan to that of the week to week grind of the NFL is silly.

I am glad we are in agreement. We made a mistake to draft Zeke and it would be a bigger mistake to sign him to a big deal.

 

[DuncanIso]

So you're not going to actually present any information instead ask a series of open ended questions. Whatever.



I am glad we are in agreement. We made a mistake to draft Zeke and it would be a bigger mistake to sign him to a big deal.

I think we'll be ok when he signs his new deal.

 

[xwalker]

So you're not going to actually present any information instead ask a series of open ended questions. Whatever.

You would complain about Zeke regardless of his performance because you hated the pick.

I certainly did not complain about Zeke in 2016 from a production standpoint. 2017 and 2018 were not efficient seasons. They also represent 2/3rds of his time in the NFL.



So the burden is on me to show "I really want to discuss" the issue by providing analysis and my opinion...something you decline to do?

Whats good for the goose isn't always good for the gander huh?



We know that passing efficiency is strongly correlated with winning whereas rushing efficiency is not.



Both of those RBs showed efficiency about on par with Zeke in 2018. If you're putting losing on McFadden you'd have to make the stupid argument that we win with Zeke in 2015. Is that your opinion?



While true this is confirmation bias. In our winning seasons we've held leads been in most every game and generally can run more. None of this points to needing to be able to run to win. In fact we see many teams win despite not having a "highly ranked RB."

Also, this ignores that the argument isn't "would I like to run well when I do run"...the obvious answer is yes you would. The question is should you try to run well by overpaying at RB. The obvious answer is no.



The patriots stand as almost the exception to every rule. Having said that add up all the draft capital the Pats have spent in the last 10 years on the RB position. You could not have traded it all in draft capital for the 4th overall pick. Also consider given the Pats spread their draft capital at the RB position across multiple specialist whose roles and usage often change by the game (ask any fantasy player) this isn't nearly an apples to apples comparison. But you knew that.



The goal is not to have a RB who stays consistently in the top 10. They are cheap assets you should be looking to rotate every few seasons.



Given the Salary Cap is a zero sum game the money you spend over-allocating to RB probably hurts you in spending the big money elsewhere. This is what we call addition. It's a very advanced mathematical concept.

You can see this playing out this year on the forum and across sports talk....how will the Cowboys pay Zeke, Dak, Amari and Byron!?!?!......I dunno how about by not giving Zeke almost $15MM a year? Would that help?



Ad hominem.



I know who Darrell Henderson is. Would have been a great get given his college productivity which is in rarefied air.



Ok?



The problem is that you would have paid through the nose for 7 years for RB and also lost out on a worthy top 4 selection. This is lipstick on a pig.



Yes, obviously players will object. Also a $1MM policy was unlikely to make Bell whole on a 4 years 52MM contract. And those insurance policies are notoriously difficult to cash in on as there are so many variables. It is why players hold out instead of just signing a magical insurance contract that makes them whole.



How has the lock that is Zeke performed the last 2 years? He was replacement level last season.



What was different between 2015 and literally every other year of Zeke's career? Did he have the worst QB play for the Cowboys in the last 25 years?



Using the patriots again? That's like using Hitler in an argument. You think you're being clever but often you're not.

Also comparing a superbowl gameplan to that of the week to week grind of the NFL is silly.

I am glad we are in agreement. We made a mistake to draft Zeke and it would be a bigger mistake to sign him to a big deal. [/QUOTE]

I think you are confused about the meaning of "ad hominem".

The burden off proof is on people that say the prevailing opinions are wrong. If you claim aliens are running the government then the burden of proof is on you, not on the people laughing at you.

You obviously don't really care about Zeke getting paid. It's just another reason to bring up drafting him.

The lack of ability by people to prove something is not proof of anything. The fact that the passing efficiency people can't or more likely have not tried to correlate rushing yards to winning is NOT proof of anything.

The example of the Pats defensive formation change is not going to show up in any commonly available stats. Actually for the 2nd half of the SB they switched from Nickle to Base on most plays and personnel grouping stats are available; however, it was the 1st half Nickel alignment that really put the Rams on their heels. The passing efficiency people didn't try to use personnel groupings and definitely didn't find or use 7 vs 8 men in the box types of stats to look at how rushing affects winning.

Confirmation Bias is not really the correct term either. It is possible that it was coincidence that the Cowboys won with Zeke/Murray/Barber/Emmitt but they have yet to win without those types of RBs.

Career Yards/Reception
Marshall Faulk: 9.0
Zeke: 8.9

Zeke lead the league in rushing. You are not going to sell that he was a replacement level RB.

 

[Diehardblues]

There is no case. Extend him now for 3 years with a 4th year option. He’s good for at least that long. It’s freaking amazing to me how some fans want to get rid of the best RB in the last 10 years if not longer. And don’t tell me let him play out his remaining 2 years. You think Zeke is going to let that happen? No.

Yea, 3 years would be a nice commitment.

It blows my mind too how fickle fans are when it comes to money. I want to pay and keep everyone. Figure out the Cap down the road .

This team can contend now. The windows in Cap era close fast unless you’re Brady and Bilichick.

Win a championship then we’ll let everyone walk, clean up the Cap and start over again. Lol