The Case Against Extending Elliott

Toruk_Makto

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Zeke averaged 5.1 yards per touch last season.

2001 all purpose yards.

That efficient enough for you ?

All that for 3.8 million this season.

Zeke isn’t gonna be like LBell.

Pay Zeke.
Where does he rank among running backs in long run percentage? Forced missed tackles? Is he an elite route runner? How many yards per route run?

And LOL at looking at base salary as a measure of compensation to a player.

This is embarrassing.
 

CouchCoach

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Yep

And I think that’s why Elliott is pulling this stunt if he truly is. He doesn’t think we intend on extending him in 2 years and is forcing the issue now . And if we aren’t interested wants to move on where someone is more interested in extending him.
And from the player's long term perspective, I can't blame him. He does have that Murray's last season to go on and he never was the same after that.

That was a tough position back in the day when the run and TOP mattered more but now it is really the only position in the NFL that I think they can field 32 good ones. The problem is, they can't keep them healthy. Elliott's running style puts him at risk and to use his injury history as the safety net is really risky.
 

DuncanIso

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Where does he rank among running backs in long run percentage? Forced missed tackles? Is he an elite route runner? How many yards per route run?

And LOL at looking at base salary as a measure of compensation to a player.

This is embarrassing.

Emmitt Smith in 1992. 2048 all purpose yards. 4.7 avg.

It was good enough for #22. You saying Emmitt didnt get enough yards per carry too?
 

DuncanIso

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And from the player's long term perspective, I can't blame him. He does have that Murray's last season to go on and he never was the same after that.

That was a tough position back in the day when the run and TOP mattered more but now it is really the only position in the NFL that I think they can field 32 good ones. The problem is, they can't keep them healthy. Elliott's running style puts him at risk and to use his injury history as the safety net is really risky.

They said that about #22 too.

Pay Zeke.
 

JD_KaPow

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They said that about #22 too.

Pay Zeke.
They said it about #22 and they were wrong, because he was uniquely durable, unlike anyone before or since. Is that the gamble you really want to make with Zeke?

Also, Emmitt's last great year came when he was 26. I don't want to pay elite money for solid performance.
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Emmitt Smith in 1992. 2048 all purpose yards. 4.7 avg.

It was good enough for #22. You saying Emmitt didnt get enough yards per carry too?

Ahhh comparing efficiency stats for 2019 to 1992.

GENIUS!!!

But it does show you just how bad 5.1 YPT is. Emmitt had 5.6 in 1993
 

CouchCoach

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They said it about #22 and they were wrong, because he was uniquely durable, unlike anyone before or since. Is that the gamble you really want to make with Zeke?

Also, Emmitt's last great year came when he was 26. I don't want to pay elite money for solid performance.
Emmitt uniquely avoided the big blow up hits and I cannot count the times I would see some LB or SS come flying just inches above him as he hit the deck. I have never seen any v=back do that as well.

That's one of my concerns with Elliott, that running style and hurdling players will get him injured, it's just a matter of the number of plays before it happens.
 

Diehardblues

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Emmitt uniquely avoided the big blow up hits and I cannot count the times I would see some LB or SS come flying just inches above him as he hit the deck. I have never seen any v=back do that as well.

That's one of my concerns with Elliott, that running style and hurdling players will get him injured, it's just a matter of the number of plays before it happens.
He hasn’t missed a game to injury. And still so young. No comparison to Murray’s concerns.

If I’m Jerry I’m trying to figure out to make it work with him versus without him. I really don’t want to start the season without him.
Been there done that. Lol
 

xwalker

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This is nonsense.

My original viewpoint was that Zeke was a great prospect/player but getting a RB at 4 is stupid.

As it turns out Zeke has proven to be a better prospect than NFL player.

None of that changes my mind on my draft day opinion that RB isn't worth a 4th.

First PFF came out and imperically showed Zeke to be comfortably out of the top tier (he doesn't make explosive runs and he doesn't forced missed tackles and he is outside the top 20 in yards per route run among rbs).

Then 538, an analytical powerhouse, comes out and shows he was a replacement level performer last year propped up by volume.

On this very forum weeks ago I said go look at the 2018 highlight film for Zeke posted here. It's a dull affair of clip after clip of Zeke mostly getting what's blocked. His HIGHLIGHT film. Zeke doesn't leave meat on the bone but he doesn't suck out the bone marrow either.

So now we're in the uncomfortable situation where it's not worth it to pay elite backs big money and now we have a low efficiency high volume back that wants big money. Yuck.

Feel free to argue against what I'm actually saying rather than build a strawman bringing in Broaddus as a foil for you to cower behind.

It does not matter what facts I can present.

You would complain about Zeke regardless of his performance because you hated the pick.

If you really want to discuss the issue then show that you can by digesting everything below and replying with something other than just repeating you past rhetoric.


The impact of RBs on winning in the NFL can't be measured in commonly available stats. Defenses adapt at the expense of pass defense to limit RBs.

The Cowboys didn't win with replacement type RBs McFadden or Alfred Morris.

The Cowboys winning seasons almost always include a highly ranked RB.
2018 & 2016 Zeke.
2014 Murray
2007 & 2009 Barber (Felix also decent in 2009)

The Patriots have used several premium draft picks (1st and 2nd round) on RBs during the Belichick era. They had 13M of cap space allocated to RBs this season. The used a 1st on one as recently as 2018.

Mid round RBs often pop up for a season on the top 10 rushing list but rarely stay there consistently. The RBs that stay on that list year after year are generally 1st & 2nd round types.

The cost to retain a top tier RB is significantly less than many other positions. The top RB contract averages 14.375M. The top QB is 35M. DLaw got 21M per and it's questionable if he is top 5 at his position. Top pass rusher Mack got 23.5M per.

If the Cowboys can draft/develop a replacement then I'm OK letting Zeke move on; however, that has not happened yet.

I would have loved to draft RB Darrell Henderson in the 3rd this year. He was terrific in college but teams tend want bigger RBs these days which made Henderson 5-8, 208 available in the 3rd. He ended up getting drafted by the Rams.

I said during the 2017 draft that I would take Dalvin Cook if he made it to the Cowboys pick. He fell to #41 but the Cowboys had #60. He has had injury issues but if he developed into a legit full time reliable starter the Cowboys could have traded Zeke at around this point in his career or could have split carries between them which would have made 1 or both cost much less to re-sign. Cook could have played snaps at WR and in the offensive weapon role they had envisioned for Tavon Austin in 2018.

I've said in the past that they should consider getting the 5 years from Zeke and then Franchise him a year or two instead of giving him a big contract. He would be 27 after 2x franchise tag years. The data shows that age 28 is when RBs are most likely to have a significant decline.

Obviously RBs and their agents are going to protest the franchise tag, especially a 2nd one; therefore that might not be a realistic option. Le'Veon Bell skipped the season instead of playing on the 2nd tag but he lost 14.5M and didn't get a bigger contract than he would have if he played in 2018. He obviously avoided injury but an insurance policy would only cost about 1M considering it was a low risk that he would have a career ending injury.

If the Steelers had handled it differently they likely could have gotten a mid round pick by trading him but their goal was to force him to play.

Drafting a RB in the top 5 or top 10 would not be my preference in general; however, Zeke was about as close to a lock as it gets from a projected performance in the NFL perspective as it comes with draft picks. The other options all had bigger question marks.

Defenses play differently against Zeke than against McFadden in 2015 even when comparing games where they've had similar stats. I mentioned previously defenses adjust to limit RBs at the expense of pass defense.

⁸The Patriots changed their defensive alignment to avoid the problems the Cowboys had against the Rams running game. That change made them more vulnerable against the pass. The Rams were not able to exploit the weaker pass defense alignment but it did put a bigger burden on the Pats pass defenders than their standard alignment (they basically had to cover a WR with a LB and Safety instead of a CB depending on the Rams formation in order to stay in the preferred run defense alignment).
 

CowboyRoy

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Zeke averaged 5.1 yards per touch last season.

2001 all purpose yards.

That efficient enough for you ?

All that for 3.8 million this season.

Zeke isn’t gonna be like LBell.

Pay Zeke.

No, Zeke was definitely not efficient enough last year. 7 rushing TD's isn't going to cut it. Neither was his short yardage rate. But some of that is just the coaching and the line play no doubt.

I don't think Zeke will be like Bell either. Not the same situation.

Trade Zeke!!
 

CouchCoach

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He hasn’t missed a game to injury. And still so young. No comparison to Murray’s concerns.

If I’m Jerry I’m trying to figure out to make it work with him versus without him. I really don’t want to start the season without him.
Been there done that. Lol
A lot of them don't get injured....until they do. He's a contact back and I am not on board with allocating that % of the cap to a back like that.

And like I've said, it's not just about this one player, it's the cumulative effect on the cap and I see too many backs that could step in. As far as starting the season without him, your frame of reference is with a backup, not another starting back.

This upcoming draft is going to be ripe with young affordable RB's that can tote the rock for this offense. And when I say this offense, I am not sure of what that's going to look like but if I am a guessing man, as I am in very post, they did not promote Moore to run the ball more.
 

Diehardblues

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A lot of them don't get injured....until they do. He's a contact back and I am not on board with allocating that % of the cap to a back like that.

And like I've said, it's not just about this one player, it's the cumulative effect on the cap and I see too many backs that could step in. As far as starting the season without him, your frame of reference is with a backup, not another starting back.

This upcoming draft is going to be ripe with young affordable RB's that can tote the rock for this offense. And when I say this offense, I am not sure of what that's going to look like but if I am a guessing man, as I am in very post, they did not promote Moore to run the ball more.
Of course my reference is about starting this season without him. Are we prepared for the consequences without a suitable replacement. You might be but I bet Jerry isn’t.

Jerry usually worries about next year, next year. You don’t think he’ll be squirming like he was after 3-4 last year? Lol
 

CouchCoach

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Of course my reference is about starting this season without him. Are we prepared for the consequences without a suitable replacement. You might be but I bet Jerry isn’t.
I didn't say I was, unless he does hold out and then I am in favor of another back.
 

Diehardblues

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A lot of them don't get injured....until they do. He's a contact back and I am not on board with allocating that % of the cap to a back like that.

And like I've said, it's not just about this one player, it's the cumulative effect on the cap and I see too many backs that could step in. As far as starting the season without him, your frame of reference is with a backup, not another starting back.

This upcoming draft is going to be ripe with young affordable RB's that can tote the rock for this offense. And when I say this offense, I am not sure of what that's going to look like but if I am a guessing man, as I am in very post, they did not promote Moore to run the ball more.
I really don’t believe they intended running this offense without Elliott this year.

And I’d argue Jerry doesn’t want to Anty up for Dak and or Cooper to see Elliott sitting out disrupting it all. We’d look pretty stupid . Lol
 

CouchCoach

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I really don’t believe they intended running this offense without Elliott this year.

And I’d argue Jerry doesn’t want to Anty up for Dak and or Cooper to see Elliott sitting out disrupting it all. We’d look pretty stupid . Lol
Then they can extend all 3 and look really stupid. The triplets....$$$.
 

Diehardblues

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Then they can extend all 3 and look really stupid. The triplets....$$$.
It’s all about the results.

If they need all 3 to remain a playoff team then that’s what we have to do.

I’m not sure we need to sign all 3 this year. I don’t think Dak will sit out. I’m not sure about Cooper.
 
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