The case against taking Zeke at 4

[percyhoward]

Sure, let me just punch in those numbers to my future machine and I'll get right back to you

You've obviously given this a lot of thought.

 

[Romotil45]

You've obviously given this a lot of thought.

Taking Zeke at four would make us a laughingstock of the league. #4 guaranteed money last year was like 26 mil so we are going to pay a guy 26 mil or more upfront before he has one carry in the league. When you can get similar production for .5-1.5 mil guaranteed and 1.5 a year. Look at McFadden's contract look at Morris' contract. McFadden rushed for 1000 yrds last yr and cost us .4 mil guaranteed and 1.5 mil a year. Todd Gurly at 10 got 9 mil guaranteed. It's like buying a new car. The rams bought a new car and had to obsorb the deprecation costs. We bought McFadden the used car at a substantial savings and they had about the same production.

 

[bodi]

it will cost the same for any player we choose at 4

and for what production ?

A DE - DT what kind of impact are they going to make at thier respective position ?

 

[Gaede]

You've obviously given this a lot of thought.

I have. Zeke makes the team better in many ways, mostly, by giving us an offensive playmaker outside of Romo and Dez. Having a dominant run game should enable us to wear teams down and open up field for our receivers, as it did in 2014. The defense can get rested and that should allow them to play hard all game long, as it did in 2014. At the very least, drafting Zeke helps the team win games more than Bosa, Ramsey or Buckner.

 

[AmishCowboy]

I like Zeke, but I feel there are other good backs in draft too that can be had later

 

[casmith07]

I generally agree, but every draft is different. For better or for worse (for us), the top 5 of this draft is not of the caliber of other drafts IMO. Even the QBs going 1-2 have many holes. As another poster said, a DB without a pro position, an athletically tapped-out DE, and a LB with a bum knee -- are your options to EE.

Not only this, but the Rams and Eagles threw the entire economy of the draft out of wack with back to back trades into the Top 2.

At #4, we effectively can pick whoever we want and it's not "too high" anymore.

 

[Romotil45]

I have. Zeke makes the team better in many ways, mostly, by giving us an offensive playmaker outside of Romo and Dez. Having a dominant run game should enable us to wear teams down and open up field for our receivers, as it did in 2014. The defense can get rested and that should allow them to play hard all game long, as it did in 2014. At the very least, drafting Zeke helps the team win games more than Bosa, Ramsey or Buckner.

Your idea of a dominate run game is what exactly ? How many carries will Zeke get and how many yrds ? Gurley put up 230 carries n 1100 yrds last year is that dominate in your opinion ? McFadden put over 1000 is that dominate ?

 

[casmith07]

I just don't agree with this.

He has everything to be a franchise back. Everything.

Gurley does too. But Gurley is also a big dude who's been injured. Chances are he'll be injured again with his size and playing style.

I prefer my RBs to look and play like Zeke. That speaks more to longevity, and longevity=franchise player

Zeke reminds me of LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshall Faulk types. Swiss Army Knife RBs.

He can run it, he can catch it, and he can block. Can't really ask for more than that, especially with his success in the ZBS at Ohio State.

 

[casmith07]

I do.

He is built to last. He's not a big target. He's not a battering ram. He's had no injuries. He's started every game for three years. He has unreal quickness to avoid or lessen impact, like Emmitt. And he knows when to go down, like Emmitt. He has a nose for the endzone, like Emmitt. He can turn 2yds into 7 yds, 10 yds into 25 yds, like Emmitt. He is extremely competitive, like Emmitt. He is a little cocky, like Emmitt. He doesn't have great long speed, neither did Emmitt.

Nobody thought Emmitt was Emmitt when he came out. He was short, slow and Rbs only lasted 4 years anyways. But all he did was put up amazing numbers in high school and college, and then go on to set records in the pros, and last for over a decade. .

Zeke is Emmitt for this team. He steps into an offense that has two of the best playmakers in the NFL at their respective positions. He has an OL that is literally built for the run. We have a coach that wants to use the running game to open up the passing game, and play ball-control offense. He is the ideal player for what we want to do, and we are the ideal team for him to come into the league and dominate from day 1, like Emmitt

Amen.

If people think Murray looked good in this offense, wait until they see a guy like Zeke.

 

[Gaede]

Your idea of a dominate run game is what exactly ? How many carries will Zeke get and how many yrds ? Gurley put up 230 carries n 1100 yrds last year is that dominate in your opinion ? McFadden put over 1000 is that dominate ?

Dominant is what Murray put up. 1800 yds.

 

[percyhoward]

I have. Zeke makes the team better in many ways, mostly, by giving us an offensive playmaker outside of Romo and Dez. Having a dominant run game should enable us to wear teams down and open up field for our receivers, as it did in 2014. The defense can get rested and that should allow them to play hard all game long, as it did in 2014. At the very least, drafting Zeke helps the team win games more than Bosa, Ramsey or Buckner.

The 12-4 record in 2014 was mostly due the easy schedule of turnover-prone offenses our defense faced, to a lesser extent about Romo, Dez, and the improvements on OL, and to a much lesser extent about Murray. If Romo and Dez are healthy, we'll still be able to keep defenses honest just like we did in 2014. If they aren't, it won't matter who the RB is. McFadden's 2015 numbers project to 1,300 yards for a full season as the starter, in a season where we had no passing game to keep defenses honest. Upgrade from him, add Romo, and we can expect 1,500 yards minimum from whichever RB we draft in the mid rounds. If we improve the defense, giving us more leads, that rushing number only goes up (if that's important to you).

The offense averaged about the same TOP with McFadden last year (3rd in NFL) as it did with Murray the year before (2nd).

And it's not Elliott vs. Bosa, Ramsey or Buckner anyway; it's Elliott vs. not. "Not" means we either get the best (or 2nd-best) defensive player on our board, or we trade down and end up with five picks in the top 67. We could use one of those on a WR, and still have our pick of RB's available in the 4th. Now we've potentially added two offensive playmakers, plus three defensive players who could contribute right now. If we don't draft a QB in the first three rounds, make that four.

Teams with great offenses and below-average defenses have won a ton of games, but don't win championships.

 

[Gaede]

The 12-4 record in 2014 was mostly due the easy schedule of turnover-prone offenses our defense faced, to a lesser extent about Romo, Dez, and the improvements on OL, and to a much lesser extent about Murray. If Romo and Dez are healthy, we'll still be able to keep defenses honest just like we did in 2014. If they aren't, it won't matter who the RB is. McFadden's 2015 numbers project to 1,300 yards for a full season as the starter, in a season where we had no passing game to keep defenses honest. Upgrade from him, add Romo, and we can expect 1,500 yards minimum from whichever RB we draft in the mid rounds. If we improve the defense, giving us more leads, that rushing number only goes up (if that's important to you).

The offense averaged about the same TOP with McFadden last year (3rd in NFL) as it did with Murray the year before (2nd).

And it's not Elliott vs. Bosa, Ramsey or Buckner anyway; it's Elliott vs. not. "Not" means we either get the best (or 2nd-best) defensive player on our board, or we trade down and end up with five picks in the top 67. We could use one of those on a WR, and still have our pick of RB's available in the 4th. Now we've potentially added two offensive playmakers, plus three defensive players who could contribute right now. If we don't draft a QB in the first three rounds, make that four.

Teams with great offenses and below-average defenses have won a ton of games, but don't win championships.

Your strategy relies on a) McFadden staying healthy for an entire year (which has happened two times in his seven professional years) b) the best defensive player on our board actually being a better prospect than Zeke and providing a similar impact on our defense that Zeke would have on offense and c) actually having a trade down partner.

B) is the issue to me. I think Zeke is a can't miss prospect who helps us get better immediately, and is also uniquely built for a long professional career. The defensive guys available are questionable prospects. One doesn't turn the ball over (which was our defense's biggest weakness) and has no definite position and the other is a weird, potentially stoner frat boy with diminishing performances over his career.

I feel like we can significantly improve our defense in the second and third round, with quality players available at both DE and CB/S. Drafting Zeke in the first doesn't preclude the team from committing the rest of its resources (which are significant) to helping the defense. Drafting Ramsey or Bosa in 1, however, does preclude our ability to draft a potentially game-changing playmaker at a position of need.

 

[Romotil45]

Dominant is what Murray put up. 1800 yds.

Ok well Murry was taken in the 3rd round not first. He was also in a contract yr which was is why he was willing to take so many carries Zekes not going to take that many carries. Gurley had 230 carried n 1100 yrds that's about what Zeke would do.

 

[tm1119]

Honest question for everyone...

If Mcfadden put up 1,089 yards with a stellar 4.6 YPC with Weeden/Cassell/Moore at QB, what would he have done with Romo and Dez healthy the entire season?

1,250 yards and 5 YPC in 11 starts?

I'm not advocating that McFadden is the future by any means, but I do think A LOT of RB's can be near dominant in this offense. To think we need to use the 4th overall pick on a RB after seeing that we got that kind of production out of a certified bust with obvious flaws is a little crazy to me honestly. Take the right kid in the 3rd/4th round and we will be just fine with Mcfadden and Morris + the rookie. Next year is the year to take a RB if we really want to anyway. Zeke is good, dont get me wrong, but I'd take at least 2, possibly up to 4 RB's in next years daft class over him

 

[Gaede]

Ok well Murry was taken in the 3rd round not first. He was also in a contract yr which was is why he was willing to take so many carries Zekes not going to take that many carries. Gurley had 230 carried n 1100 yrds that's about what Zeke would do.

Who cares where Murray was drafted? Why does that matter? If you can draft a guy, right now, who can step into your offense and immediately compete for offensive player of the year, why wouldn't you?

If Zeke can gives us 1500 yds, yearly, with 15-20 TDs a year, then hell yeah I'm drafting him at 4

 

[Romotil45]

Who cares where Murray was drafted? Why does that matter? If you can draft a guy, right now, who can step into your offense and immediately compete for offensive player of the year, why wouldn't you?

If Zeke can gives us 1500 yds, yearly, with 15-20 TDs a year, then hell yeah I'm drafting him at 4

Ok that's fine Jerry say if you come up with 26 mil guaranteed to pay him we will take him. Good luck with that. Jerry is not going to pay 26 mil for a RB. Nor should he.

 

[Romotil45]

Who cares where Murray was drafted? Why does that matter? If you can draft a guy, right now, who can step into your offense and immediately compete for offensive player of the year, why wouldn't you?

If Zeke can gives us 1500 yds, yearly, with 15-20 TDs a year, then hell yeah I'm drafting him at 4

Also Zeke not going to put up 1500 yrds n 15-20 TD not going to happen. He will put up about 1100 and 8-10 TDs.

 

[Gaede]

Also Zeke not going to put up 1500 yrds n 15-20 TD not going to happen. He will put up about 1100 and 8-10 TDs.

Oh OK. I guess since you know the future, this is a losing argument

 

[Gaede]

Ok that's fine Jerry say if you come up with 26 mil guaranteed to pay him we will take him. Good luck with that. Jerry is not going to pay 26 mil for a RB. Nor should he.

I said it before. I don't care what a player makes. I'm a football fan, not a franchise management fan. We spend too much time worrying about value and numbers that we've lost sight of what we actually are fans of

 

[Romotil45]

Oh OK. I guess since you know the future, this is a losing argument

I simply projecting what most NFL analysts are projecting for Zeke. They project him with about the same numbers as Gurley. 230 carries n 1100 yrds 8-10 TDs.