CFZ The clear recipe to make a conference championship game without an elite QB

[Bobhaze]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

 

[Bobhaze]

Non-elite QBs to make at least a conference championship game in last decade:

• Brock Purdy SF -2022 and 2023 made NFC Championship game and also a SB. Each time with a top 10 running game and top 10 defense.
• Jared Goff Det - made 2023 nfc championship game with 6th ranked running game.
• Jalen Hurts PHi- in 2022 made it to SB with a top 5 running game and top ten defense.
• Jimmy Garropolo SF- In 2019 and 2021 led the niners to a SB and an NFC championship game with a top 5 running game and defense.
• Matt Stafford Rams - 2021 SB champs had the 9th best defense. Not a great running game but their D was big when it had to be.
• Ryan Tannehill- Titans 2019- had 3rd ranked running game.
• Nick Foles Phi- 2017- won SB with 3rd ranked running game and 4th ranked defense.
• Matt Ryan Atl 2016- made SB with a 5th ranked rushing game.

Again…Dak (or any other decent, non-elite QB) needs to be supported by a good running game and/or defense. It’s the only way.

 

[HonoluluCowboy]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

 

[Bobhaze]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

Dont completely disagree but the Cowboys had Dak, Zeke, Cedee and many other talented players for years on cheap rookie deals (like SF has with Purdy) but they(SF) built great running games and defenses around them before the QB got expensive. Jerry has never learned that lesson.

 

[Kevinicus]

Dallas has had a top 10 scoring defense 7 of the last 8 years.

Dallas has had a top 10 running game 6 of the last 8 seasons. All 6 of those seasons they have also had a top 10 scoring defense.

Weird thread.

 

[Rockport]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Please Bob, give us a break. EVERY QB, elite or not, needs a balanced team to win the SB or Brady would’ve won it every year. Think about it. My Lord.

 

[Bobhaze]

Dallas has had a top 10 scoring defense 7 of the last 8 years.

Two of the last 3 years they have had both a top 10 defense and top 10 running game.

True and good point. This team underperformed, two of the last 3 years. But instead of trying to upgrade the running game going into this year we didn’t draft a RB, signed Zeke and Royce Freeman in dumpster dive moves. We did acquire some good young OL but they haven’t played a regular season game yet.

My point here is if you know your QB needs a running game to be a playoff contender and you let your leading rusher leave in FA, it looks like the FO isnt serious about a running game.

 

[MonsterD]

I believe that the top ten running game is not necessary anymore. You need an elite top 5 Oline and a scheme, ala a coaching genius and able assistant coaching for offense in it's place.

 

[Rockport]

True and good point. This team underperformed, two of the last 3 years. But instead of trying to upgrade the running game going into this year we didn’t draft a RB, signed Zeke and Royce Freeman in dumpster dive moves. We did acquire some good young OL but they haven’t played a regular season game yet.

My point here is if you know your QB needs a running game to be a playoff contender and you let your leading rusher leave in FA, it looks like the FO isnt serious about a running game.

Every QB needs an effective running game. Football 101. You can ignore me all you want but you know I’m right.

 

[Rockport]

I believe that the top ten running game is not necessary anymore. You need an elite top 5 Oline and a scheme, ala a coaching genius and able assistant coaching for offense in its place.

You don’t need a top 10 running game but you need to be able to efficiently run the ball when you need to efficiently run the ball. That usually leads to a top running game.

 

[buybuydandavis]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

...
With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield?

The signing of Steele was interesting in that he's better at run blocking than pass blocking and they signed him long term. Seemed a significant change in priorities to me. No more prioritizing protecting the QB.

Starting two rookies is definitely not prioritizing QB protection.

I can justify that all as a change in philosophy.

But not getting a mid level RB, or spending even a mid level pick on one? It's just JAG city. Not a single credible NFL starter. That just seems like spite toward Dak. Doing their best to make conditions *this year* really bad for the QB.

Hoping to get him to agree to a trade this year, or at least bring down his numbers for contract negotiations next year.

 

[Streifenkarl]

So at no point in his 8 years in Dallas Dak had either a top running game and/or defense?

The problem ain't the stats. They had great regular seasons, all of them. Yet they fold like lawn chairs (and Dak above all) when it comes to the play offs.

But even when the defense was doing its job (think the game against KC in 21 and many others) the offense couldn't deliver against SB contenders.

Blaming the defense alone is nonsense. I will concede that the one dimensional offense over the last couple of years was a problem and simple made them too predictable. But when Zeke still had it they also couldn't make anything happen.

So like most of us have been saying for a very long time now, these guys are pretenders, not contenders. Whether it's the FO, the coaching staff, the defense or the offense... when things get serious they take a break. On paper this team should have been good enough for a couple of NFCCG already. Anything can happen, sure. When all the stars align they can have a good run. But history just doesn't allow any confidence in these guys right now.

 

[zekecowboy]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

Dallas already has got burnt. Hardly any offseason moves and several veteran defensive lineman moved on due to better paycheck.

 

[T-RO]

Without an elite QB and without elite coaching I don't see much hope of a team bringing home a Super Bowl.

As big a reason as any suppressing Cowboys playoff success is they have neither the inspirational leadership of a Parcells or Jimmy J...nor a mastermind like Reid, McVay, Belichick, Shanahan, etc.

It's a league of Qbs and coaches.

 

[Bob-Lillys-War]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Without an elite QB and without elite coaching I don't see much hope of a team bringing home a Super Bowl.

As big a reason as any suppressing Cowboys playoff success is they have neither the inspirational leadership of a Parcells or Jimmy J...nor a mastermind like Reid, McVay, Belichick, Shanahan, etc.

It's a league of Qbs and coaches.

If we are talking about strictly SB appearances you have Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn, Cam Newton and Ron Rivera, Doug Peterson and Nick Foles….Siriani and Hurts……

 

[Established1971]

Bob the research guru

 

[Bob-Lillys-War]

Trade/Sell Dak , if possible .

Too expensive .

Overload the Defense , and put Cooper on .


We will make the playoffs , same as with Dak .

 

[eromeopolk]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Like we have been saying for the last 30 years...Run to win, Pass to score, and defense wins Championships.

Tom Landry had a top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jimmy Johnson had top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jerry Dumbo GM Jones for the last 30 years has focused on a top offense to put fans in the seat and he does not care if it is the visiting team fans.

The first pick in Dallas Cowboys history was not a QB. It was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly a DT. Jimmy Johnson drafted the NFL all time Leading rusher, Tom Landry trade up for the second all time leading rusher at retirement behind Walter Payton, and Jerry Dumbo GM Jones cut 2 NFL rushing leaders. Jerry then let LBs, DBs, and DL walk in FA and trades.

The recipe is clear and it was cooked in the kitchen that Jerry Dumbo GM Jones bought and the gourmet meal was served in front of his eyes from 1960-1993.

 

[Kevinicus]

Like we have been saying for the last 30 years...Run to win, Pass to score, and defense wins Championships.

Tom Landry had a top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jimmy Johnson had top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jerry Dumbo GM Jones for the last 30 years has focused on a top offense to put fans in the seat and he does not care if it is the visiting team fans.

The first pick in Dallas Cowboys history was not a QB. It was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly a DT. Jimmy Johnson drafted the NFL all time Leading rusher, Tom Landry trade up for the second all time leading rusher at retirement behind Walter Payton, and Jerry Dumbo GM Jones cut 2 NFL rushing leaders. Jerry then let LBs, DBs, and DL walk in FA and trades.

The recipe is clear and it was cooked in the kitchen that Jerry Dumbo GM Jones bought and the gourmet meal was served in front of his eyes from 1960-1993.

The Cowboys have consistently had both a top 10 running game and top 10 scoring defense for nearly a decade now.