CFZ The clear recipe to make a conference championship game without an elite QB

[IrishAnto]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Where would you rank the GMs of those teams?
A lot higher than our GM (not that that would be hard) I bet!

 

[Rockport]

Like we have been saying for the last 30 years...Run to win, Pass to score, and defense wins Championships.

Tom Landry had a top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jimmy Johnson had top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jerry Dumbo GM Jones for the last 30 years has focused on a top offense to put fans in the seat and he does not care if it is the visiting team fans.

The first pick in Dallas Cowboys history was not a QB. It was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly a DT. Jimmy Johnson drafted the NFL all time Leading rusher, Tom Landry trade up for the second all time leading rusher at retirement behind Walter Payton, and Jerry Dumbo GM Jones cut 2 NFL rushing leaders. Jerry then let LBs, DBs, and DL walk in FA and trades.

The recipe is clear and it was cooked in the kitchen that Jerry Dumbo GM Jones bought and the gourmet meal was served in front of his eyes from 1960-1993.

Not too many people here understand that certainly not the OP. Sorry Bob.

 

[Blackrain]

Unfortunately I think we got to go a bit deeper than just the running game and the defense.

We have to start with a culture that makes winning a super bowl the top priority and we need to draft players who make it a priority.

Next we need a front office that has the smarts and shows the willingness to acquire the free agents necessary to get us over the top when we get close you cannot continually stay three players away.

Next you need a coach that can actually make the players want to walk through the fire for him be at his best coaching playoff football with the ability to out think the guy on the other side line. Owner comfort should not enter into this at all.

At this point with these basics set when you use a first round draft pick on a defensive tackle for the first time in I don't know how many years it needs to be a home run player that can stop the run not a pile of excuses.

Lastly after watching your quarterback for this number of years you should have a pretty good track on his ability and what he needs to succeed in the playoffs. Dak needs a running game to be successful against good teams by hook or crook it needs to be provided for him to win playoff games.

 

[T-RO]

If we are talking about strictly SB appearances you have Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn, Cam Newton and Ron Rivera, Doug Peterson and Nick Foles….Siriani and Hurts……

Here's the list of teams in the past 11 years to win a Super Bowl without an elite QB or elite coaching:
2018 Eagles
2016 Broncos

So: 82% of relevant Super Bowl winners in our discussion have featured an elite QB, elite coaching........or BOTH.

 

[Rockport]

Unfortunately I think we got to go a bit deeper than just the running game and the defense.

We have to start with a culture that makes winning a super bowl the top priority and we need to draft players who make it a priority.

Next we need a front office that has the smarts and shows the willingness to acquire the free agents necessary to get us over the top when we get close you cannot continually stay three players away.

Next you need a coach that can actually make the players want to walk through the fire for him be at his best coaching playoff football with the ability to out think the guy on the other side line. Owner comfort should not enter into this at all.

At this point with these basics set when you use a first round draft pick on a defensive tackle for the first time in I don't know how many years it needs to be a home run player that can stop the run not a pile of excuses.

Lastly after watching your quarterback for this number of years you should have a pretty good track on his ability and what he needs to succeed in the playoffs. Dak needs a running game to be successful against good teams by hook or crook it needs to be provided for him to win playoff games.

They’ve got the players. Now they have the defense to go with it. Order a few cases, put them on ice and sit back and enjoy what’s coming. If It’s disaster, then you’ll be partying chugging beers. If it turns into a Super Bowl berth, you’ll be partying chugging beers. You’re like most here, just a low level fair weather fan.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Non-elite QBs to make at least a conference championship game in last decade:

• Brock Purdy SF -2022 and 2023 made NFC Championship game and also a SB. Each time with a top 10 running game and top 10 defense.
• Jared Goff Det - made 2023 nfc championship game with 6th ranked running game.
• Jalen Hurts PHi- in 2022 made it to SB with a top 5 running game and top ten defense.
• Jimmy Garropolo SF- In 2019 and 2021 led the niners to a SB and an NFC championship game with a top 5 running game and defense.
• Matt Stafford Rams - 2021 SB champs had the 9th best defense. Not a great running game but their D was big when it had to be.
• Ryan Tannehill- Titans 2019- had 3rd ranked running game.
• Nick Foles Phi- 2017- won SB with 3rd ranked running game and 4th ranked defense.
• Matt Ryan Atl 2016- made SB with a 5th ranked rushing game.

Again…Dak (or any other decent, non-elite QB) needs to be supported by a good running game and/or defense. It’s the only way.

Not arguing with any of that, however, it's difficult constructing that: running game, defense (and in Dak's case a top WR (or 2), as identified in the year prior to Amari and Cooks) when the non-elite QB is commanding close to 20% of the CAP ....which will be the case, when taking into account the $40m 'dead money' and assuming Dak/France is asking for 3/4 years. What connects the QB's in the above list is that they werent hitting 20% of the CAP

You can argue (and you do) that it's the FO's responsibility to manage the CAP, however, Dak achieved three 12-5 seasons on the back of Jerry kicking his money (8.2% CAP - 11.7%) into the 2024 (21%) and Dead Money in 2025 (14%, on top of contract). We achieved the last three years by cheating the CAP, which Dak was a beneficiary of. Jerry can see that at 3/4 years (and the $40m Dead Money).....we cant create this: running game, Defense and WR that's paid elite money.

The focus has been on Dak and Dak's money, and whether Dak 'earns' that money. Well he possibly does, but he earnt it on the back of three years of Jerry restructuring, SO YES JERRY's FAULT, but DAK WAS A WILLING ACCESSORY/BENEFICIARY. The Dak position is coming down to whether he wants money or success, because if he doesnt give something (and I mean NO. OF YEARS), then there's pretty much no way of PAYING HIM BETWEEN 55M-60M (3/4 years) + 40 Dead Money .....and then giving him: the Defense, running game + ELITE WR that he needs.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

Dallas has had a top 10 scoring defense 7 of the last 8 years.

Dallas has had a top 10 running game 6 of the last 8 seasons. All 6 of those seasons they have also had a top 10 scoring defense.

Weird thread.

So if you are implying that the QB may have been the problem, I would have to agree on that. Dak has had his chances to succeed, but instead has crapped the bed. And now he wants $60m per season? LOL. No freaking way

 

[CCBoy]

Dont completely disagree but the Cowboys had Dak, Zeke, Cedee and many other talented players for years on cheap rookie deals (like SF has with Purdy) but they(SF) built great running games and defenses around them before the QB got expensive. Jerry has never learned that lesson.

Looking for a bias to catch all blame here.

 

[CCBoy]

Every QB needs an effective running game. Football 101. You can ignore me all you want but you know I’m right.

The problem is that a non-bias removes the blame of a convenient ol' Jerry and decades old excuse of only 3.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

Can't sign FA if we don't pass the buck! I totally agree about not doing it, it kills our cap

 

[JoeKing]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Dak is ELITE

 

[PAPPYDOG]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

No matter how much talent you give him he will find a way to give the other team the win.
The never-ending tale of getting Dak the Raven's 2000 defense and a new young Zeke with an HOF offline and HOF WR.
Not happening it's a cap league.
And lets not forget we have to pay this NEEDS TO BE CARRIED QB 60 million a year to boot!!!
HE CHOKES........The End.

 

[BoysForLife]

Dallas has had a top 10 scoring defense 7 of the last 8 years.

Dallas has had a top 10 running game 6 of the last 8 seasons. All 6 of those seasons they have also had a top 10 scoring defense.

Weird thread.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Dallas has had a top 10 scoring defense 7 of the last 8 years.

Dallas has had a top 10 running game 6 of the last 8 seasons. All 6 of those seasons they have also had a top 10 scoring defense.

Weird thread.

 

[sunalsorises]

Dont completely disagree but the Cowboys had Dak, Zeke, Cedee and many other talented players for years on cheap rookie deals (like SF has with Purdy) but they(SF) built great running games and defenses around them before the QB got expensive. Jerry has never learned that lesson.

Garrett was trying to build the running game. He had the OL and the back. He never had the defense. They tried to throw some names on the D, though--Rob Ryan, Monty Kiffin, Rod Marinelli.

 

[Stash]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

I agree with the premise of this thread, but I take issue with Joe Burrow being labeled as elite. It feels forced to fit the criteria.

His numbers are no better than Dak’s.

https://stathead.com//football/vers...player_id2=PresDa01&p2yrfrom=2020&p2yrto=2023

 

[Cowboys5217]

It isn't even about Dak's approximate place in any QB pecking order. It's the mental aspect that he folds under pressure. That part of his game cannot be fixed just like with Romo. Lesser skilled QBs can get there because they don't have the psychological problem.

The only way Dak gets to a conference title game is to get there in spite of him. You need a Bears 85 defense that can win the game even if Dak throws pick sixes.

 

[RxMan]

Even when Dak was on a 'cheap' contract, the QB position was not. Cowboys had Romo's dead money cap hit at the same time. Prevented them from loading up at other positions. Sure, it was bad luck but the bill came due.

 

[Cowboys5217]

I believe that the top ten running game is not necessary anymore. You need an elite top 5 Oline and a scheme, ala a coaching genius and able assistant coaching for offense in it's place.

Nah. just need the right QB. Everything else can be mid level. Without the right QB everything else needs to be all time great.

It's much easier to just find a great QB than build a great rest of the team.

 

[birdwells1]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

You had a QB that made 40 million last years and his cap hit was 17 million, CeeDee was under a rookie deal cap hit 4.5 million and Parsons was 4.6 million. Your excuse for the Joneses has been debunked.