CFZ The clear recipe to make a conference championship game without an elite QB

[birdwells1]

Like we have been saying for the last 30 years...Run to win, Pass to score, and defense wins Championships.

Tom Landry had a top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jimmy Johnson had top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jerry Dumbo GM Jones for the last 30 years has focused on a top offense to put fans in the seat and he does not care if it is the visiting team fans.

The first pick in Dallas Cowboys history was not a QB. It was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly a DT. Jimmy Johnson drafted the NFL all time Leading rusher, Tom Landry trade up for the second all time leading rusher at retirement behind Walter Payton, and Jerry Dumbo GM Jones cut 2 NFL rushing leaders. Jerry then let LBs, DBs, and DL walk in FA and trades.

The recipe is clear and it was cooked in the kitchen that Jerry Dumbo GM Jones bought and the gourmet meal was served in front of his eyes from 1960-1993.

Yeah this high flying passing offense doen't work in the cold or against physical teams

 

[Cowboys5217]

Yeah this high flying passing offense doen't work in the cold or against physical teams

That ain't the real issue. The real issue is the psychological choke factor our last two QBs suffer from.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

OMG, jeez dude. half the pie, we went from 40, to 50, to 60 now half the pie, being what. 110M..

seriously. this is what people said the last time too. at 40M we are handicapped. first year cap hit 17M, second year 19M, third eyar was 25M...and yes this year its 59M...that's what happens with the cap. you push money into the future. every team does that. Philly just handed out 5 top 5 money contracts. how did they do it?

when we draft players like Mazi, Schoonmaker, Kelvin Joseph, Taco in first and secodn rounds, you are missing players that now have to go and find in FA.

also, we just signed Diggs last year. the offer to Lamb is at 33M...he wants 35 or 36. you want to tell me they can't redo a single contract to come up with another 3M? or manage the cap so Lamb fits? we also have handed out contracts to Martin, Lawrence, Steele...how many large contracts do you want?

disclaimer: This post is not defending Dak, his play or his contract demands. This post intends to show how people don't understand how the cap and contracts work.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dallas has had a top 10 scoring defense 7 of the last 8 years.

Dallas has had a top 10 running game 6 of the last 8 seasons. All 6 of those seasons they have also had a top 10 scoring defense.

Weird thread.

very true. except that the other team was also there and better at it.

we have failed to show up in the playoffs. when the team is focused on planning victory parties for a playoff game, it tells you where their focus is

 

[Jarntt]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

While I agree with what you wrote, it does basically cover half the league. Last season there were 17 teams that were in either the top 10 rushing offense or top 10 defense lists (some dupes). Then throw in Cincy for having an elite QB and you are at half the league. We were part of the 17 (due to our defense) as were all but 3 of the 14 playoff teams.

 

[birdwells1]

Unfortunately I think we got to go a bit deeper than just the running game and the defense.

We have to start with a culture that makes winning a super bowl the top priority and we need to draft players who make it a priority.

Next we need a front office that has the smarts and shows the willingness to acquire the free agents necessary to get us over the top when we get close you cannot continually stay three players away.

Next you need a coach that can actually make the players want to walk through the fire for him be at his best coaching playoff football with the ability to out think the guy on the other side line. Owner comfort should not enter into this at all.

At this point with these basics set when you use a first round draft pick on a defensive tackle for the first time in I don't know how many years it needs to be a home run player that can stop the run not a pile of excuses.

Lastly after watching your quarterback for this number of years you should have a pretty good track on his ability and what he needs to succeed in the playoffs. Dak needs a running game to be successful against good teams by hook or crook it needs to be provided for him to win playoff games.

This one of the best post on here EVER!!!! I too am of the mind that everything that happens on the field starts up top and by that I mean the front office. The Joneses ARE the culture of this Dallas Cowboys football team, that's why I wanted Belicheck to be hired just so he could bring in a "football first" type of culture. The first priority of the Joneses for a head coach is "will he be good with the way we run things around here" after that they figure out what kind of impact he'll have on the team.

The run game and stopping the run doesn't sell ticket so the Joneses aren't interested in them but if you look at the Conference Championship games all four could stop the run and run the ball.

When I look at the front page of fan zone and see 20 Dak thread but no Joneses thread it's really disappointing because this has been going on for 28 years now and it can't be the players it has more to do with the culture that has not be made with football men but an oil man.

 

[birdwells1]

That ain't the real issue. The real issue is the psychological choke factor our last two QBs suffer from.

If I give you pro bowl level QB play for 17 years and only for a 4th round pick do you think that you could make an NFCCG? This is a real question, could you build around them?

 

[Stash]

Even when Dak was on a 'cheap' contract, the QB position was not. Cowboys had Romo's dead money cap hit at the same time. Prevented them from loading up at other positions. Sure, it was bad luck but the bill came due.

And they’ve managed to repeat their past mistakes.

If they moved on from Dak today, they’re still looking at something like $40 million in dead money.

 

[Aven8]

I wish Sam Williams hadn’t gone down. Because I think our defense is going to be really good this year. The pass rush is my only concern.

 

[Bobhaze]

Not arguing with any of that, however, it's difficult constructing that: running game, defense (and in Dak's case a top WR (or 2), as identified in the year prior to Amari and Cooks) when the non-elite QB is commanding close to 20% of the CAP ....which will be the case, when taking into account the $40m 'dead money' and assuming Dak/France is asking for 3/4 years. What connects the QB's in the above list is that they werent hitting 20% of the CAP

You can argue (and you do) that it's the FO's responsibility to manage the CAP, however, Dak achieved three 12-5 seasons on the back of Jerry kicking his money (8.2% CAP - 11.7%) into the 2024 (21%) and Dead Money in 2025 (14%, on top of contract). We achieved the last three years by cheating the CAP, which Dak was a beneficiary of. Jerry can see that at 3/4 years (and the $40m Dead Money).....we cant create this: running game, Defense and WR that's paid elite money.

The focus has been on Dak and Dak's money, and whether Dak 'earns' that money. Well he possibly does, but he earnt it on the back of three years of Jerry restructuring, SO YES JERRY's FAULT, but DAK WAS A WILLING ACCESSORY/BENEFICIARY. The Dak position is coming down to whether he wants money or success, because if he doesnt give something (and I mean NO. OF YEARS), then there's pretty much no way of PAYING HIM BETWEEN 55M-60M (3/4 years) + 40 Dead Money .....and then giving him: the Defense, running game + ELITE WR that he needs.

It is always the responsibility of the owner, GM and the front office to make the cap work. It is not the players’ responsibility.

The players’ responsibility is to train, prepare and play to the best of their ability. Managing the team’s cap space is not their responsibility.

 

[CowboyoWales]

You had a QB that made 40 million last years and his cap hit was 17 million, CeeDee was under a rookie deal cap hit 4.5 million and Parsons was 4.6 million. Your excuse for the Joneses has been debdebunked

So what about the rest of the roster....the CAP doesn't work by highlighting just a handful of contracts (and ignoring the rest)

 

[shabazz]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

We good.....we don't have an elite qb so we addressed it by getting Zeke back

 

[CowboyoWales]

It is always the responsibility of the owner, GM and the front office to make the cap work. It is not the players’ responsibility.

The players’ responsibility is to train, prepare and play to the best of their ability. Managing the team’s cap space is not their responsibility.

So the fact Dak failed to play 'to the best of his ability' in 3 of 4 play-off games means Jerry just can't build that team around a QB that needs a FULL supporting act.....get rid of Jerry AND Dak.

 

[Creeper]

I think a great defense can take a team a long way even with an average offense. But it is getting expensive to build great defenses too now.

 

[Bobhaze]

If I give you pro bowl level QB play for 17 years and only for a 4th round pick do you think that you could make an NFCCG? This is a real question, could you build around them?

SF has done it twice with Brock Purdy, literally the last player drafted in the 7th round. Purdy’s good but he’s not elite. The niners also did it with a second round pick Jimmy Garropolo twice. All by putting a really good running game and defense around a good but not elite QB.

We had our chance to do that from 2016-2019 when Dak was on his cheap rookie deal. He played for chump change for 4 years. We did have a good running game at times in those years but the defense was not.

My point here is that I don’t think our FO is very good at roster building in the cap era and our owner/GM is also not interested in hiring and empowering a head coach that would take the spotlight away from him.

 

[Bobhaze]

So the fact Dak failed to play 'to the best of his ability' in 3 of 4 play-off games means Jerry just can't build that team around a QB that needs a FULL supporting act.....get rid of Jerry AND Dak.

I would support that.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

We good.....we don't have an elite qb so we addressed it by getting Zeke back

I'm choosing to take this as more a dig on Jerry than Zeke.

 

[Cowboys5217]

SF has done it twice with Brock Purdy, literally the last player drafted in the 7th round. Purdy’s good but he’s not elite. The niners also did it with a second round pick Jimmy Garropolo twice. All by putting a really good running game and defense around a good but not elite QB.

We had our chance to do that from 2016-2019 when Dak was on his cheap rookie deal. He played for chump change for 4 years. We did have a good running game at times in those years but the defense was not.

My point here is that I don’t think our FO is very good at roster building in the cap era and our owner/GM is also not interested in hiring and empowering a head coach that would take the spotlight away from him.

The reason Purdy and Garopolo could get to title games and Dak cannot is purely psychological.

Jerry is the number one issue, but even Belichick isn't going to get a guy like Romo or Dak over the hump. They both hit their ceilings quite regularly as soon as the moment got too big.

A better front office will simply build a team with a different QB. Even a QB with lesser talent that does not suffer from the psychological choke factor can get you to a title game with a good roster. A more talented QB with the choke factor will never get you there no matter how good the talent around them is.

Could even the 85 Bears defense make up for pick sixes in the first half? I have my doubts about that, and even if you could build an 85 Bears defense why would you hold on to a QB who has a hard limit on how far they can take you?

 

[shabazz]

I'm choosing to take this as more a dig on Jerry than Zeke.

I agree.....I tend to blame the chef rather than the groceries

 

[Cowboys5217]

I think a great defense can take a team a long way even with an average offense. But it is getting expensive to build great defenses too now.

They can, but can they overcome a QB playing so badly that picks, pick sixes, and taking bad sacks out of FG range are all they can produce in the first half?