CFZ The clear recipe to make a conference championship game without an elite QB

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Dont completely disagree but the Cowboys had Dak, Zeke, Cedee and many other talented players for years on cheap rookie deals (like SF has with Purdy) but they(SF) built great running games and defenses around them before the QB got expensive. Jerry has never learned that lesson.

You would have thought he learned something from the 90’s, build your foundation (OL, DL & Run game). 2016 we had the OL and Run game and that was it.

 

[eromeopolk]

Depends on when you play the East and if they’re good. The last few years it didn’t matter where we played Washington or New York because the weren’t good. If you play someone on the road in bad weather in the playoffs then that team is going to be good

It depends if you can stop the run. Remember Arizona. NFC East teams will run the ball this year.

 

[kskboys]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

And a top 10 D starts w/ a top 5 UT and a good NT.

 

[kskboys]

Like we have been saying for the last 30 years...Run to win, Pass to score, and defense wins Championships.

Tom Landry had a top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jimmy Johnson had top 10 defense, a top 10 running game, and threw the ball enough to score.

Jerry Dumbo GM Jones for the last 30 years has focused on a top offense to put fans in the seat and he does not care if it is the visiting team fans.

The first pick in Dallas Cowboys history was not a QB. It was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly a DT. Jimmy Johnson drafted the NFL all time Leading rusher, Tom Landry trade up for the second all time leading rusher at retirement behind Walter Payton, and Jerry Dumbo GM Jones cut 2 NFL rushing leaders. Jerry then let LBs, DBs, and DL walk in FA and trades.

The recipe is clear and it was cooked in the kitchen that Jerry Dumbo GM Jones bought and the gourmet meal was served in front of his eyes from 1960-1993.

Love it!!!!!!!!!!!!! I've actually never heard it put that way, very well done.

 

[75boyz]

Unfortunately I think we got to go a bit deeper than just the running game and the defense.

We have to start with a culture that makes winning a super bowl the top priority and we need to draft players who make it a priority.

Next we need a front office that has the smarts and shows the willingness to acquire the free agents necessary to get us over the top when we get close you cannot continually stay three players away.

Next you need a coach that can actually make the players want to walk through the fire for him be at his best coaching playoff football with the ability to out think the guy on the other side line. Owner comfort should not enter into this at all.

At this point with these basics set when you use a first round draft pick on a defensive tackle for the first time in I don't know how many years it needs to be a home run player that can stop the run not a pile of excuses.

Lastly after watching your quarterback for this number of years you should have a pretty good track on his ability and what he needs to succeed in the playoffs. Dak needs a running game to be successful against good teams by hook or crook it needs to be provided for him to win playoff games.

Heck,
this is like a Hall of Fame level response to the OP brother.

Fantastic post.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Here's the list of teams in the past 11 years to win a Super Bowl without an elite QB or elite coaching:
2018 Eagles
2016 Broncos

So: 82% of relevant Super Bowl winners in our discussion have featured an elite QB, elite coaching........or BOTH.

Define elite QB.

The Athletic has an article out where fifty of the top people in the NFL rated QB's into tiers.

The top tier is a QB that can lift a team around him that has less talent.

The second tier has a QB who can occasionally do that, buts play is consistent.

Broaddus had the writer of the article on the radio on Tuesday. He talked at length about Dak and had him in the second tier. He stated pretty much what BobHaze has said here. Dak has the tools to win it all, but needs more help surrounding him to offer him a running game and protection. And a defense that can stop the other team.

He also made the point that Mahomes is that top tier guy.

Now name the other QB's that fit that bill.

The consensus of these fifty guys had Dak in the second tier.

These guys are considered third tier.

Tagovailoa
Hurts
Lawrence
Murray

So how many QB's actually fit the mold? And that is where the rubber meets the road.

​

 

[noshame]

You don't have to have a elite quarterback. You just have to have a quarterback that doesn't hurt your game.
You also need a head coach who has the entire team focused and ready to play. Unfortunately, we do not have one

 

[Bullflop]

I'm reasonably confident that the Cowboys could produce a top ten defense this season, and possibly have a top ten offense, too.

From the standpoint of how we'd fare in the playoffs, assuming we might get there, I'll have to admit, that's a fairly shaky scenario.

 

[jaythecowboy]

I don’t think the Cowboys’ run game hasn’t shown up in the playoffs since Dak’s rookie season

 

[Swagger]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Fantastic post.

I really enjoyed reading all of your points. It makes you appreciate how well Mahomes and Burrow played in some seasons.

Out of interest what have the Cowboys had in terms of defense and running game rankings since 2016 (serious question)?

 

[Bobhaze]

Fantastic post.

I really enjoyed reading all of your points. It makes you appreciate how well Mahomes and Burrow played in some seasons.

Out of interest what have the Cowboys had in terms of defense and running game rankings since 2016 (serious question)?

I know in 2023 our defense was ranked 5th, our running game was 15th. I think not having a good running game really hurt us last year and I’m not too confident about this years running game on paper. We will see in time.

 

[DUO_CORE]

The path is easy: 20 points, that's it. Beat all your opponents by 1 point throughout the season and playoffs and you'll have a perfect record and be the champs!

 

[75boyz]

Here's the list of teams in the past 11 years to win a Super Bowl without an elite QB or elite coaching:
2018 Eagles
2016 Broncos

So: 82% of relevant Super Bowl winners in our discussion have featured an elite QB, elite coaching........or BOTH.

Yeah,
I'm with ya bro.
One of my most major pet peeves here is the crowd that minimizes the quarterbacking impact.

And then combine it with poor playoff coaching and it's really crazy.

In the past I've even posted that I believe many, if not all of the recent past elite HC-QB SB tandems could actually win a trophy here even with Jerry being Jerry.

The problem is Jerry won't hire "that" HC or has the ability to draft "that" QB.

But my point is IF he ever did, we could win a trophy.
Even in spite of Jerry.
It's been my stance for 3 years now.
Quarterbacking and Coaching.

Ours just royally suck at their jobs in the playoffs.
Period.