The Dallas Cowboys are the Alex Smith-era Chiefs

RustyBourneHorse

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I get that. I just don't see how that happens without Dak settling for a very team friendly deal. How would your scenario play out assuming Dak gets a top market deal with the typical guaranteed portion? The cap hits you would have to take in years 1 and 2 in order to free up year three wouldn't be any better than the cap hits you take the next two years by releasing him. How do you absorb the remaining cap responsibilities, add the new ones and not be in the same position we're in now?

To put some numbers on it, let's say Dak accepts a deal of 4 years 200 million with a 100 million guaranteed. You now have four years to spread the existing cap responsibilities plus the 100 million (minimum) Dal will receive. Isn't that close to 40 million per year on average? Even if you front load (or backload) the deal at some point you're coming up against a situation where the chickens come home to roost and you're stuck with the same decision of take a huge cap hit or extend him yet again.

I don't see how that's any better than not resigning him and spreading the 59 million over the next two years?

I believe all Dak's guaranteed money has been paid out as of this season. Jerry could release him without owing him any cash, take the 30ish million cap hits over the next tow seasons, or extend him and take those same cap hits, either now or later.


I understand your premise to be that Dak is not the future and he should be extended purely for cap relief while we find the next guy. If that is the case it makes no sense to me to invest more in him just to end up in the same, or worse place just when you have the heir apparent ready to take over a team hamstrung by cap constraints. Rip the bandaid off now, get a placeholder while you try and find the next guy, building the areas that need attention to give those guys the best chance to succeed.
Sure, and that could be done too with a place holder. However, as I thought about your 3 year deal statement earlier more, there might be a way to do it. Obviously, I'm not Jerry so I don't know if and how they'd do it. But, if he gets say, 3 years of $48-50 mil, then we are basically spreading the cap hit across (depending on how much is guaranteed) 3 years instead of just one. So, let's say it's $50 mil each year with $30 mil guaranteed. That's $90 mil total guaranteed. Theoretically, you could use this as a way to resign Lamb and Parsons. Given that the Cowboys seldom use free agency anyway, this likely addresses the key issue. Now, the obvious other downside is you're only getting a year or two of true rookie salary benefit, but, you'd also have levers with the other deals made because of this to free up cap if needed, and you could target those years as the years you need to make your big remaining extensions.

Obviously, it depends, like I said, on Jerry and Stephen, but I think there's a way to get all of this where Dak is kept for 3 years and we get a rookie. This is just my spit balling idea for a way they can manipulate the cap to achieve this.
 

RustyBourneHorse

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37 y/o Rogers was far superior than 31 y/o Dak. There's no debate about it.

Nobody is disputing that. I'm just pointing out that we are in a spot where we have a very good QB. Depending on how we structure his contract and manipulate the cap, we can have him and his successor on the roster either this offseason or next year .
 

RustyBourneHorse

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i really don't have time to read all that yet but let me tell you this , are we talking about a franchise that....there super bowl appearances and wins??? i wonder how their fans responded to that's twice as long as jerry's drought mmm

i mean but thanks for bringing it up since.... this fan base is upset over 28 years , and waiting on 5 when they were waiting on which number for 51years??

We are talking about a franchise that is currently finding success and the fact that we have a surprisingly large amount of similarities between us and where they were around 2016. So, I analysed and found a way that the Cowboys can potentially find our winning ways again.
 

RustyBourneHorse

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I get that. I just don't see how that happens without Dak settling for a very team friendly deal. How would your scenario play out assuming Dak gets a top market deal with the typical guaranteed portion? The cap hits you would have to take in years 1 and 2 in order to free up year three wouldn't be any better than the cap hits you take the next two years by releasing him. How do you absorb the remaining cap responsibilities, add the new ones and not be in the same position we're in now?

To put some numbers on it, let's say Dak accepts a deal of 4 years 200 million with a 100 million guaranteed. You now have four years to spread the existing cap responsibilities plus the 100 million (minimum) Dal will receive. Isn't that close to 40 million per year on average? Even if you front load (or backload) the deal at some point you're coming up against a situation where the chickens come home to roost and you're stuck with the same decision of take a huge cap hit or extend him yet again.

I don't see how that's any better than not resigning him and spreading the 59 million over the next two years?

I believe all Dak's guaranteed money has been paid out as of this season. Jerry could release him without owing him any cash, take the 30ish million cap hits over the next tow seasons, or extend him and take those same cap hits, either now or later.


I understand your premise to be that Dak is not the future and he should be extended purely for cap relief while we find the next guy. If that is the case it makes no sense to me to invest more in him just to end up in the same, or worse place just when you have the heir apparent ready to take over a team hamstrung by cap constraints. Rip the bandaid off now, get a placeholder while you try and find the next guy, building the areas that need attention to give those guys the best chance to succeed.

However, having thought about it more, we could also find a one year QB to come in and start for one year while taking a QB like Penix this year. So yeah, I'm fine with your idea too. Have a one or two year starter after using June 1 on Dak while we let Pennix develop. I just think, by having a 3 year deal, it gives us a bit more flexibility if we can keep the guarantees to about the same amount that it'd save us in a June 1 cut with Dak. We know Jerry isn't going to want bad records. So, the way I'm trying to come up with the idea is to satiate his desire for relevance while also finding a QB that would be for McCarthy what Rodgers was for him or Mahomes has been for Reid.
 

RustyBourneHorse

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And Rodgers fell to GB at 24 when they still had Favre. But these moves take planning ahead which is something Jerry is oblivious to.

Sure, but McCarthy isn't oblivious to this as he developed Rodgers. Maybe McCarthy, if he sees what I see, can convince or have Jerry backdoor his way into a guy like Pennix or Nix, then, McCarthy goes to work on the rookie.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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lol. You got that right!

I would add another option of just releasing him and spreading that 59 out over the next two years. Having him play out the last year of his deal as a lame duck could have unintended consequences. We already have MM's lame duck status to contend with.

But you're right. Jerry isn't upsetting the apple cart at this stage. Dak will be resigned and we'll have an another three year window to get it done with this crew.
So I thought about cutting him. But then what’s the point of bringing Mike back? He knows this is probably his last gig if it flops this year. Realistically is he going to go with a young qb? I don’t see it.
 

baltcowboy

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Sure, but just because we have Lance also does not preclude the Cowboys from taking a QB anyway either. Plus, if you look on page 1, I examined moves and found that, based on history, they might just go QB anyway. Indeed, given the emergency QB situation, I could see them making Lance QB2, and have the rookie be the emergency QB while sitting. Doing this gives us an even bigger advantage at QB.
Lance is pretty much guaranteed the second quarterback spot. He is our 4th round pick for the 24 draft and I believe Rush is a free agent. The Cowboys have limited draft choices there not wasting two draft picks for two quarterbacks that will probably not play unless Dak gets injured.
 

DFWJC

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I’ve seen Caleb be the consensus first pick. It’s Maye, Nix, Daniels and Penix I’ve seen all over the place.
Last 7-8 mocks I've seen all have Williams/Maye 1-2.
In last month, Have never seen Maye lower than 3rd overall pick. Even have seen maye ahead of Williams, rarely

But either way....lots of QBs this year
 

blueblood70

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We are talking about a franchise that is currently finding success and the fact that we have a surprisingly large amount of similarities between us and where they were around 2016. So, I analysed and found a way that the Cowboys can potentially find our winning ways again.
Like I said I'm pressed for time right now I haven't read it all but I'm just telling you that there are teams out there that have had far longer droughts than the Dallas Cowboys and somehow their fan base survived 51 years my man that's a long time between Super Bowls they didn't have much more success their fans waited around and now they're being rewarded it just takes time there is no blueprint there is no magic pill you just someday just find the right mix and it just happens that's why you can win a Super Bowl with Nick Foles or Trent dilfer and sometimes just coaches you never thought would win like the Eagles ex coach that's now the Jaguars coach he sure didn't last long three years after that Super Bowl win and they cut bait.. But they hit oil they struck gold it it is what it is it just happened there was no blueprint there is no exact science everybody around here thinks of Jerry hired a real football guy a GM which by the way is will mcclay but he if he gave up the title like the curse by the way which Jimmy is now in the Ring of Honor and it didn't help this is just a bunch of nonsense narratives that people keep making up...

This is more simple than that either be patient and wait for when it happens because it will happen or set your expectations different because it's ridiculous to responses around here when we do have a team that is winning we have a small window of opportunity right now it's probably why they went back with McCarthy for one more year probably Prescott possibly is not gonna get an extension and we just eat that cap hit which by the way we probably should it's really not that far off of what his average salary would be with an extension you might as well eat it have both of them have a one year prove it or time to blow it up type deal....​
But later on if I get some time I'll read through your article but right now I'm just telling you you picked a perfect example of a 51 year drought that the fans survived they seemed to be happy now or maybe not I mean if you look at the responses how they struggled early in the year but look it will eventually happen for the Cowboys and right now we're only at 28 think about this if it happens before 51 then we bested the Kansas City Chiefs because we're looking for #5 I'm betting they were stuck on one or two before that 51 year drought broke... That would be 1970 you know the Texas Rangers circa that Finally broke this year ,​
well the chiefs had one Super Bowl win in 1970 and it took all the way till 2020 to win another one.... And I'm betting if fans really looked at it with some perspective we're waiting on #5 maybe we'd have all these ridiculous reactions we get in here every time they get bounced from the playoffs...​
 

blueblood70

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Lance is pretty much guaranteed the second quarterback spot. He is our 4th round pick for the 24 draft and I believe Rush is a free agent. The Cowboys have limited draft choices there not wasting two draft picks for two quarterbacks that will probably not play unless Dak gets injured.
Well I have to use you're pretty much as an example to it's not guaranteed because if he plays terrible in training camp and preseason he might still have to be the number 3 I think the Cowboys might have to look into bringing in someone even better than rush you see these other players picking up guys like brissett or even Flacco or some of these other guys did very well in short stints I think we need a guy like that we over even Cooper rush but I'm willing to see what Trey Lance has in OTA's mini camps training camp and preseason see what the time here shows that he has anything at all to even be the number 2...
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Last 7-8 mocks I've seen all have Williams/Maye 1-2.
In last month, Have never seen Maye lower than 3rd overall pick. Even have seen maye ahead of Williams, rarely

But either way....lots of QBs this year
I mean it depends on what Bears and Commanders. It also depends if someone trades up. I don’t think it’s even a forgone conclusion Bears stay there.
 

MissionCoach

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The Dallas Cowboys are the Alex Smith-era Chiefs. I stated this as a comment in a post, and, as I've been digging more into it, the more I can see similarities between the Cowboys, as currently constructed, and the Alex Smith-era Chiefs, specifically circa 2016. If the Cowboys see the similarities that I see, then thats great, because I think there's a way to build this team for great success in the near future. If I am right, which, from what I see, I think is probably close, then I think I have a vision for how to make the Cowboys similar to the current Chiefs. It won't be identical, but we can be similar IF the Cowboys see what I see. Below are some of the many similarities that I see. For the sake of this thread, I will limit the comparisons to three major ones.

Part I - Comparisons

Coaching - Andy Reid vs Mike McCarthy
Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy have a lot more in common than you might think. There was a time when Reid was thought to have poor clock management skills. A lot of the criticisms thrown at Mike McCarthy were once thrown at Andy Reid, who I think we'd all see as a great coach. I won't go into too many details of this as I have a thread about this. However, I will compare a few things. Firstly, they're from a similar Bill Walsh WCO (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Walsh_(American_football_coach)). This means that they have similar philosophies. Secondly, if you watch the offenses of the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2023 (as this is the first year of Mike calling the plays) Cowboys, you can see some similarities. Below, I will show you week 1 of the Kansas City Chiefs game playing the then-San Diego Chargers and our week 4 game against the Patriots. I showed these videos to one of my roommates, who is a Chiefs fan. Observe the offenses:





If you notice, there are similarities in the ways these offenses are run. Specifically, notice the run patterns and some of the route combinations used. There are similarities that I see. My roommate who is a Chiefs fan noticed some of the similarities that I saw.


QB: Dak Prescott vs. Alex Smith
The QBs are very similar. Like Alex Smith, Dak is the type of QB who will keep you relevant, but will not lead you to much in the way of playoff success. You'll make the playoffs more often than not, but it will be frustrating because you expect more. Dak isn't the only QB to have a great record and blow a top seed. Alex Smith did too in 2016.

Tight Ends: Jake Ferguson vs Travis Kelce
I think Jake Ferguson has proven to be quite similar to Travis Kelce. If you watch the way he plays, he has a similar skillset. The measurables are similar with Jake (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Ferguson) is 6'4" and 244 lbs, while Travis Kelce is 6'5" and 250 lbs. If you watch the two of them play, they're quite similar, and not just because they wear the same number.

The important thing is that we have pieces in place that, if you put the tape on of the 2016 Chiefs and the 2023 Cowboys, you can see similarities. So, now for why this is a good thing.

Part II - How to Fix it!
So, now comes my vision on how to fix the problem. How to turn the Cowboys into a "similar to Patrick Mahomes" era. Firstly, and I know some of you are going to hate this but please read the entirety of this so you understand what I'm saying. This is not to embrace mediocrity as some of you might say. Rather, it is like planting a seed that can grow into a tree. We must extend Dak's contract. I know a lot of you hate this, but, for the cap, we must. However, and I stress however, I would either make it a 3 year deal OR make it a deal that is long BUT has an out after 2-3 years AND allows for trades (just as the Chiefs did with Alex Smith when they dealt him to Washington). This allows us to extend the cap AND gives us an out for the important part. We then draft a QB to develop like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes. The QB that I'm thinking is Michael Penix from Washington. I would let him sit behind Dak for a year or two to develop, sort of like what the Chiefs did with Mahomes behind Alex Smith. Oh, and I should note (in the interest of symmetry) the Chiefs also went a long time, prior to Mahomes, without drafting a QB in the first round. Their last 1st round QB was Todd Blackledge of Penn State (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kansas_City_Chiefs_first-round_draft_picks) in 1983. They drafted Mahomes in 2017. Our last first round draft QB was Troy Aikman in 1989. It is now 2024. The time would uncannily similar (+- a few years) if do it this year. But, as it stands, let us go further with this.

I would have Penix sit for a year or two and develop. Given that he'd be a first round pick, he would have the 5th year option built into his contract. Plus, by having Dak, you don't have to tear down the team in a rebuild and have shoddy records. So, we could have a QB that a lot of teams would like to have, and we'd have the QB of the future on the roster. While we do this, we also should look at what we have. We have a player in Turpin who, if used creatively, can be similar to Tyreek Hill. We have actually an upgrade at WR in Lamb. We have a TE similar to Kelce. What we would need is a QB like Penix to develop. Once he's ready, we get him on the field, use the fact that we'd have an out in Dak's contract to try to trade him, and turn the offense over to Penix. In doing this and, if my vision (and I hope it is McCarthy's vision too) for the team ends up like I think it does, we could become the NFC version of the Chiefs.

I think this is how we go from where we are now to a team who is consistently competing for a championship. The best part for Jerry? He wouldn't have had to wait very long to build the roster, and he'd be able to pad his ego by saying his patience led to us finding a similar coach to Andy Reid, while he rakes in the money for having a champion.

Unfortunately, Jerry is becoming the worst of Al Davis owner for several decades now. "In reality Davis, whose team had the league's lowest attendance in '09, spends more time thinking about money than winning", other than low attendance, sound familiar. Says an AFC owner about Davis: "... I think it's safe to say he wouldn't be employed by 31 other teams."

I understand that the salary cap era had greatly impacted the ability to cut players....but Coaches??? Jerry said that going forward a lot would depend on how the Cowboys did in their playoff run. Well, we got blown out by half time, and it was beyond embarrassing. I don't know how much worse this team can perform for Jerry to right the ship. I guess I should not be surprised, he's kept on the most inept GM, who to steal the above quote "wouldn't be employed by 31 other teams".

I've been a Cowboy fan since 1965, and have experienced all the highs and lows of being a loyal Dallas fan, but this recent playoff loss was an all time low, and beyond humiliating. I will continue to be a Cowboy Fan, and hope for the best. But I refuse to buy any Cowboy merchandise until there's some significant change by our owner/PT GM, and hope others will follow suit.
 

DFWJC

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I mean it depends on what Bears and Commanders. It also depends if someone trades up. I don’t think it’s even a forgone conclusion Bears stay there.
Would love to be in the Bears' shoes this draft.

If they want a QB, they get their wish in a strong QB draft year....asum its Williams.
.
If they decide not to take a QB they can get a huge haul by barely trading down to the 2-4 range
Still, get the player they want and a bunch of picks.
Then they still get their own 1st rounder a few picks after that.

Nice setup
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Would love to be in the Bears' shoes this draft.

If they want a QB, they get their wish in a strong QB draft year....asum its Williams.
.
If they decide not to take a QB they can get a huge haul by barely trading down to the 2-4 range
Still, get the player they want and a bunch of picks.
Then they still get their own 1st rounder a few picks after that.

Nice setup
It is I’d rather keep Fields but I don’t think that GM or any GM wants to pass up Caleb.

But you are right. Bears get to have some fun. Great spot to be in.
 

baltcowboy

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Well I have to use you're pretty much as an example to it's not guaranteed because if he plays terrible in training camp and preseason he might still have to be the number 3 I think the Cowboys might have to look into bringing in someone even better than rush you see these other players picking up guys like brissett or even Flacco or some of these other guys did very well in short stints I think we need a guy like that we over even Cooper rush but I'm willing to see what Trey Lance has in OTA's mini camps training camp and preseason see what the time here shows that he has anything at all to even be the number 2...
A coach and owner for another franchise other then the Cowboys would do the sensible thing and bring in solid veteran backup but we talking about the Joneses and the Cowboys. At best we talking about Dak, Lance, and Rush. I think the Cowboys would rather go with Dak and Lance.
 

Staubacher

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Alex Smith made it to an NFC Championship Game and threw two touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. Dak hasn't even sniffed playoff success like that
 

lopey

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This is all true but Jerry’s ego wont let him see it. His massive need to do it his way is the problem imo
 
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