The Dallas Cowboys are the Alex Smith-era Chiefs

[Whyjerry]

Nope. The Dallas Cowboys are the Al Davis Raiders.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

Not a good comparison. I am watching Get Up and they are talking about the Cowboys. I thought there was 4 playoff games this weekend. The Cowboys run ESPN and Fox Sports.

Well yeah, there is an identification difference between us and the 2016 Chiefs in terms of how many people talk about us. However, in terms of the players and the team construction, there's a surprising amount of similarities.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

12tds and 7 ints is not good. If that's the case, then Trevor Lawrence had a good season lol

Well let’s put things in perspective 3 of those picks came from one game. Pitt dominated him.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

That is entirely dependent on Dak accepting a second tier QB rate with little guaranteed money.

If you sign him for three years, 50 mill/yr and 100mil guaranteed how are you not right back in this same situation in three years? The existing cap responsibilities don't disappear with a new contract. They can be spread out over the new years but they still have to be accounted for along with the new guaranteed money. If Dak plays hardball again, and Jerry caves again they could actually be in a much worse position then they are now.

If you think Dak is the guy, by all means give him an extension, the longer the better. If you don't think he is the guy than I'm struggling to see the logic in paying him big dollars for a few years only to be right back in this same position salary cap wise.

I'm saying maybe see if we can get a 4-5 year deal that is sort of winged to where there's decent cap money in years one and two, but, in year 3, it's fairly light, that way, you have a spot there that can be used as an out. It'd be a deal that can give us a way out. And even if it is a full 3 year deal, that's why it's critical then that we draft a QB in round one this year or next year. That's why I was saying in there that I was stressing that we have to extend Dak AND draft his replacement. Ideally this year, but next year works too.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

We are missing an elite quarterback and a run stuffing linebacker. If we had those 2 things the last 3 years we would have been at least in the NFCCG if not Super Bowl at least once or twice the past 3 years.

And we can draft that QB within the next two years and have him develop under Dak for a year or two.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

That is entirely dependent on Dak accepting a second tier QB rate with little guaranteed money.

If you sign him for three years, 50 mill/yr and 100mil guaranteed how are you not right back in this same situation in three years? The existing cap responsibilities don't disappear with a new contract. They can be spread out over the new years but they still have to be accounted for along with the new guaranteed money. If Dak plays hardball again, and Jerry caves again they could actually be in a much worse position then they are now.

If you think Dak is the guy, by all means give him an extension, the longer the better. If you don't think he is the guy than I'm struggling to see the logic in paying him big dollars for a few years only to be right back in this same position salary cap wise.

The contract negotiations will be interesting. There is a right decision. A wrong decision. And a realistic decision.

Dak playing on his 59 million hit is the right decision but hurts us this year.

Wrong decision is extending him on a deal making him the highest paid QB.

The realistic decision is they will probably re-sign him and make him the highest paid QB lol.

 

[jwitten82]

Well let’s put things in perspective 3 of those picks came from one game. Pitt dominated him.

Well if we do that, 3 of his tds came against Cleveland in the last game of the season, where a lot starters didn't play for Cleveland. So 9 tds and 4 ints is still not a good season

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

We are missing an elite quarterback and a run stuffing linebacker. If we had those 2 things the last 3 years we would have been at least in the NFCCG if not Super Bowl at least once or twice the past 3 years.

So you don’t believe Jerry or the culture is the problem and we can actually win with him running things they way he is? Just as long as we what? Have Mahomes and Fred Warner?

 

[DallasEast]

The Cowboys have already spent a 2024 draft pick on a QB - their 4th rounder for Trey Lance. They aren't using their first rounder for another one.

I don't dislike the plan, I just think there's a 0% chance of it happening.

Jones would not use a first-round pick on the position with Prescott on the roster. Acquiring Lance does not factor into his decision-making for that reason in my opinion.

However, I believe Jones would do a complete 180 degree flip-flop, concerning how he has nearly always addressed the position, IF he ended his contractual commitment with Prescott. The odds of that happening is less than 0.01 percent though. ~insert Lloyd Christmas quote here lol~

 

[baltcowboy]

Well yeah, there is an identification difference between us and the 2016 Chiefs in terms of how many people talk about us. However, in terms of the players and the team construction, there's a surprising amount of similarities.

I am going to leave the quarterbacks out of the comparisons because the thread would go off the rails. The Cowboys are actually more talented than KC was at the skill positions. CeeDee/ Ferguson are closer to Hill/Kelce than most might think. Jones and Micah are a wash. Andy Reid and the Chiefs front off put that team way over the top. You making a good argument for a coaching change.

 

[mahoneybill]

The Dallas Cowboys are the Alex Smith-era Chiefs. I stated this as a comment in a post, and, as I've been digging more into it, the more I can see similarities between the Cowboys, as currently constructed, and the Alex Smith-era Chiefs, specifically circa 2016. If the Cowboys see the similarities that I see, then thats great, because I think there's a way to build this team for great success in the near future. If I am right, which, from what I see, I think is probably close, then I think I have a vision for how to make the Cowboys similar to the current Chiefs. It won't be identical, but we can be similar IF the Cowboys see what I see. Below are some of the many similarities that I see. For the sake of this thread, I will limit the comparisons to three major ones.

Part I - Comparisons

Coaching - Andy Reid vs Mike McCarthy
Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy have a lot more in common than you might think. There was a time when Reid was thought to have poor clock management skills. A lot of the criticisms thrown at Mike McCarthy were once thrown at Andy Reid, who I think we'd all see as a great coach. I won't go into too many details of this as I have a thread about this. However, I will compare a few things. Firstly, they're from a similar Bill Walsh WCO (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Walsh_(American_football_coach)). This means that they have similar philosophies. Secondly, if you watch the offenses of the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2023 (as this is the first year of Mike calling the plays) Cowboys, you can see some similarities. Below, I will show you week 1 of the Kansas City Chiefs game playing the then-San Diego Chargers and our week 4 game against the Patriots. I showed these videos to one of my roommates, who is a Chiefs fan. Observe the offenses:





If you notice, there are similarities in the ways these offenses are run. Specifically, notice the run patterns and some of the route combinations used. There are similarities that I see. My roommate who is a Chiefs fan noticed some of the similarities that I saw.


QB: Dak Prescott vs. Alex Smith
The QBs are very similar. Like Alex Smith, Dak is the type of QB who will keep you relevant, but will not lead you to much in the way of playoff success. You'll make the playoffs more often than not, but it will be frustrating because you expect more. Dak isn't the only QB to have a great record and blow a top seed. Alex Smith did too in 2016.

Tight Ends: Jake Ferguson vs Travis Kelce
I think Jake Ferguson has proven to be quite similar to Travis Kelce. If you watch the way he plays, he has a similar skillset. The measurables are similar with Jake (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Ferguson) is 6'4" and 244 lbs, while Travis Kelce is 6'5" and 250 lbs. If you watch the two of them play, they're quite similar, and not just because they wear the same number.

The important thing is that we have pieces in place that, if you put the tape on of the 2016 Chiefs and the 2023 Cowboys, you can see similarities. So, now for why this is a good thing.

Part II - How to Fix it!
So, now comes my vision on how to fix the problem. How to turn the Cowboys into a "similar to Patrick Mahomes" era. Firstly, and I know some of you are going to hate this but please read the entirety of this so you understand what I'm saying. This is not to embrace mediocrity as some of you might say. Rather, it is like planting a seed that can grow into a tree. We must extend Dak's contract. I know a lot of you hate this, but, for the cap, we must. However, and I stress however, I would either make it a 3 year deal OR make it a deal that is long BUT has an out after 2-3 years AND allows for trades (just as the Chiefs did with Alex Smith when they dealt him to Washington). This allows us to extend the cap AND gives us an out for the important part. We then draft a QB to develop like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes. The QB that I'm thinking is Michael Penix from Washington. I would let him sit behind Dak for a year or two to develop, sort of like what the Chiefs did with Mahomes behind Alex Smith. Oh, and I should note (in the interest of symmetry) the Chiefs also went a long time, prior to Mahomes, without drafting a QB in the first round. Their last 1st round QB was Todd Blackledge of Penn State (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kansas_City_Chiefs_first-round_draft_picks) in 1983. They drafted Mahomes in 2017. Our last first round draft QB was Troy Aikman in 1989. It is now 2024. The time would uncannily similar (+- a few years) if do it this year. But, as it stands, let us go further with this.

I would have Penix sit for a year or two and develop. Given that he'd be a first round pick, he would have the 5th year option built into his contract. Plus, by having Dak, you don't have to tear down the team in a rebuild and have shoddy records. So, we could have a QB that a lot of teams would like to have, and we'd have the QB of the future on the roster. While we do this, we also should look at what we have. We have a player in Turpin who, if used creatively, can be similar to Tyreek Hill. We have actually an upgrade at WR in Lamb. We have a TE similar to Kelce. What we would need is a QB like Penix to develop. Once he's ready, we get him on the field, use the fact that we'd have an out in Dak's contract to try to trade him, and turn the offense over to Penix. In doing this and, if my vision (and I hope it is McCarthy's vision too) for the team ends up like I think it does, we could become the NFC version of the Chiefs.

I think this is how we go from where we are now to a team who is consistently competing for a championship. The best part for Jerry? He wouldn't have had to wait very long to build the roster, and he'd be able to pad his ego by saying his patience led to us finding a similar coach to Andy Reid, while he rakes in the money for having a champion.

Nice analysis. What in particular do you thinks makes Penix stand out compared to alternatives

 

[nate dizzle]

So you don’t believe Jerry or the culture is the problem and we can actually win with him running things they way he is? Just as long as we what? Have Mahomes and Fred Warner?

Jerry and the culture sucks. But yes, I 100% believe that if we had Patrick mahomes and a Fred Warner type linebacker on this roster we absolutely would have been in the NFC championship game if not the Super Bowl at least twice in the last 3 years.

 

[calicowboy54]

The Dallas Cowboys are the Alex Smith-era Chiefs. I stated this as a comment in a post, and, as I've been digging more into it, the more I can see similarities between the Cowboys, as currently constructed, and the Alex Smith-era Chiefs, specifically circa 2016. If the Cowboys see the similarities that I see, then thats great, because I think there's a way to build this team for great success in the near future. If I am right, which, from what I see, I think is probably close, then I think I have a vision for how to make the Cowboys similar to the current Chiefs. It won't be identical, but we can be similar IF the Cowboys see what I see. Below are some of the many similarities that I see. For the sake of this thread, I will limit the comparisons to three major ones.

Part I - Comparisons

Coaching - Andy Reid vs Mike McCarthy
Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy have a lot more in common than you might think. There was a time when Reid was thought to have poor clock management skills. A lot of the criticisms thrown at Mike McCarthy were once thrown at Andy Reid, who I think we'd all see as a great coach. I won't go into too many details of this as I have a thread about this. However, I will compare a few things. Firstly, they're from a similar Bill Walsh WCO (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Walsh_(American_football_coach)). This means that they have similar philosophies. Secondly, if you watch the offenses of the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2023 (as this is the first year of Mike calling the plays) Cowboys, you can see some similarities. Below, I will show you week 1 of the Kansas City Chiefs game playing the then-San Diego Chargers and our week 4 game against the Patriots. I showed these videos to one of my roommates, who is a Chiefs fan. Observe the offenses:





If you notice, there are similarities in the ways these offenses are run. Specifically, notice the run patterns and some of the route combinations used. There are similarities that I see. My roommate who is a Chiefs fan noticed some of the similarities that I saw.


QB: Dak Prescott vs. Alex Smith
The QBs are very similar. Like Alex Smith, Dak is the type of QB who will keep you relevant, but will not lead you to much in the way of playoff success. You'll make the playoffs more often than not, but it will be frustrating because you expect more. Dak isn't the only QB to have a great record and blow a top seed. Alex Smith did too in 2016.

Tight Ends: Jake Ferguson vs Travis Kelce
I think Jake Ferguson has proven to be quite similar to Travis Kelce. If you watch the way he plays, he has a similar skillset. The measurables are similar with Jake (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Ferguson) is 6'4" and 244 lbs, while Travis Kelce is 6'5" and 250 lbs. If you watch the two of them play, they're quite similar, and not just because they wear the same number.

The important thing is that we have pieces in place that, if you put the tape on of the 2016 Chiefs and the 2023 Cowboys, you can see similarities. So, now for why this is a good thing.

Part II - How to Fix it!
So, now comes my vision on how to fix the problem. How to turn the Cowboys into a "similar to Patrick Mahomes" era. Firstly, and I know some of you are going to hate this but please read the entirety of this so you understand what I'm saying. This is not to embrace mediocrity as some of you might say. Rather, it is like planting a seed that can grow into a tree. We must extend Dak's contract. I know a lot of you hate this, but, for the cap, we must. However, and I stress however, I would either make it a 3 year deal OR make it a deal that is long BUT has an out after 2-3 years AND allows for trades (just as the Chiefs did with Alex Smith when they dealt him to Washington). This allows us to extend the cap AND gives us an out for the important part. We then draft a QB to develop like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes. The QB that I'm thinking is Michael Penix from Washington. I would let him sit behind Dak for a year or two to develop, sort of like what the Chiefs did with Mahomes behind Alex Smith. Oh, and I should note (in the interest of symmetry) the Chiefs also went a long time, prior to Mahomes, without drafting a QB in the first round. Their last 1st round QB was Todd Blackledge of Penn State (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kansas_City_Chiefs_first-round_draft_picks) in 1983. They drafted Mahomes in 2017. Our last first round draft QB was Troy Aikman in 1989. It is now 2024. The time would uncannily similar (+- a few years) if do it this year. But, as it stands, let us go further with this.

I would have Penix sit for a year or two and develop. Given that he'd be a first round pick, he would have the 5th year option built into his contract. Plus, by having Dak, you don't have to tear down the team in a rebuild and have shoddy records. So, we could have a QB that a lot of teams would like to have, and we'd have the QB of the future on the roster. While we do this, we also should look at what we have. We have a player in Turpin who, if used creatively, can be similar to Tyreek Hill. We have actually an upgrade at WR in Lamb. We have a TE similar to Kelce. What we would need is a QB like Penix to develop. Once he's ready, we get him on the field, use the fact that we'd have an out in Dak's contract to try to trade him, and turn the offense over to Penix. In doing this and, if my vision (and I hope it is McCarthy's vision too) for the team ends up like I think it does, we could become the NFC version of the Chiefs.

I think this is how we go from where we are now to a team who is consistently competing for a championship. The best part for Jerry? He wouldn't have had to wait very long to build the roster, and he'd be able to pad his ego by saying his patience led to us finding a similar coach to Andy Reid, while he rakes in the money for having a champion.

i like everything you said but penix. i’ve watched him play last 2 years and he gets the overwhelmed look in big games as well. i don’t want another QB that has that. i want one that thrives in the fire and he is not one of them to me.

 

[Captain-Crash]

our choker isn't as good as Smith.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Jerry and the culture sucks. But yes, I 100% believe that if we had Patrick mahomes and a Fred Warner type linebacker on this roster we absolutely would have been in the NFC championship game if not the Super Bowl at least twice in the last 3 years.

Fair enough. But isn’t that an issue we within itself? I have 9 All Pros… and we still need the best linebacker in the NFL? It should not be this hard…..teams have done with far less and with Eli Manning at qb.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

I am going to leave the quarterbacks out of the comparisons because the thread would go off the rails. The Cowboys are actually more talented than KC was at the skill positions. CeeDee/ Ferguson are closer to Hill/Kelce than most might think. Jones and Micah are a wash. Andy Reid and the Chiefs front off put that team way over the top. You making a good argument for a coaching change.

Sure, I can see that with CeeDee and Ferguson. However, I'm talking more about the comparison between McCarthy and Reid, which is very similar still imo and the QBs. So, to me, it may take a QB who has a better range of abilities to get what we need.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

i like everything you said but penix. i’ve watched him play last 2 years and he gets the overwhelmed look in big games as well. i don’t want another QB that has that. i want one that thrives in the fire and he is not one of them to me.

Sure, and hey, if the QB we need isn't there this year, that's fine. We can probably wait until next year while we go oline, running back, linebacker, and NT this year. Then, with the prospects that I see likely to enter the draft next year, we can then take a QB next year if needed. That is fine by me.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

Nice analysis. What in particular do you thinks makes Penix stand out compared to alternatives

Well, firstly, he's more likely to be available lol. Secondly, I like his arm and his speed. When I watch him play, he's got a cannon of an arm, and his legs are impressive to me. He is left-handed, so that might make things a bit different, but probably not by much. I think he has good height. He might need a year or two of developing to 1. Get build muscle and weight as he is 213 lbs, and we need him about 225ish to withstand an NFL pounding and 2. To learn the complexities of the NFL compared to college. I think he will struggle if asked to start straight away. I think he's the type of QB you take in round one, knowing you have the 5th year bonus that comes with a 1st round pick, to allow him to develop a year or two. Then, once it's clear that he's comfortable and should be able to put in, then you see why you took him round one. Maybe he's not Mahomes, but he seems almost like a left-handed Jordan Love.

 

[baltcowboy]

Sure, I can see that with CeeDee and Ferguson. However, I'm talking more about the comparison between McCarthy and Reid, which is very similar still imo and the QBs. So, to me, it may take a QB who has a better range of abilities to get what we need.

You are more of a realist than the Dak haters. What quarterback can the Cowboys get that is better than Dak? Take a chance on Lance? Make a multiple draft pick trade to get in the top 5 in the draft to get the fourth best quarterback prospect. I am not sure Caleb and Maye are better quarterbacks then Dak so you probably know where I am going to say about the other prospects.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

You are more of a realist than the Dak haters. What quarterback can the Cowboys get that is better than Dak? Take a chance on Lance? Make a multiple draft pick trade to get in the top 5 in the draft to get the fourth best quarterback prospect. I am not sure Caleb and Maye are better quarterbacks then Dak so you probably know where I am going to say about the other prospects.

Sure, right now some of them are not. However, I think with McCarthy, you can (much like with Mahomes and Reid) teach a QB with traits that suit your offense how to perform at the best of their abilities. I think Mike is doing this with Dak, and I think he can do this with a rookie. However, and I made this clear in my OP, I think it's important to both extend Dak AND get his successor on the roster (the latter within the next two drafts). I think we need to extend Dak and have an out when we would expect the QB to take over.

For this draft, as far as potential prospects go, I think if Michael Penix falls to us like I believe he should and what I've read suggests he might, then he is one of the QBs that I can see (and prefer) this year being drafted in round one by us as the successor to Dak. Now, just because you draft a QB in round one does NOT mean you have to start them straight away. Rodgers, Love, and Mahomes didn't. Mike would know this very well that sometimes, if you have the luxury of a very good QB in Dak, you can use the first round pick's contract as a benefit and let him sit a year or two while he develops. If you can do this, you have a chance of developing something special. So, while Michael Penix, for example, is not currently better than Dak, I think he has the tools to learn how to operate McCarthy's system how Mike McCarthy wants him to do it.

This is not unlike the QBs that I mentioned. If Mahomes ended up in Chicago instead of Trubisky, he probably struggles because the system didn't fit him. He had the exact coach that he needed to succeed in Reid. However, he needed a year to sit to learn how to function in Reid's offense. Reid was perfect for Mahomes, and Mahomes has been perfect for Reid.

Aaron Rodgers had to sit a few years behind Brett Favre. While this was going on, Mike McCarthy was able to teach him how to run his system. When he took over, it likely became easier for him to succeed rather than if he had started when he was drafted. Hence why I said that Mike McCarthy knows this concept well. Aaron Rodgers was perfect, for a while, for McCarthy, and McCarthy was who Rodgers needed early on.

Jordan Love had to sit a few years behind Rodgers. Similar situation to Rodgers with LaFluer. And this is a concept that some teams really benefit from if they have the luxury that we have. The difference is that I don't know if the FO recognises this luxury that we have. I think, just with Dak being 31 soon (im 31 funny enough), it's time to start exploring potential successors.

I think a QB like Penix or someone we draft next year that fits McCarthy's offense really well could be the answer. Plus, assuming Dak is on a 4 year deal with an out after 3, then he's likely about 33 or 34 when the time for the successor to be ready. If this is the case, then this is a reasonable age to make this change. I don't think extending Dak and drafting his successor are mutually exclusive. I think we have the luxury to be able to do it, and it should be done.